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OnTheBlack

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Everything posted by OnTheBlack

  1. not a chance. suter, having already burned his 2017 option, could have been optioned to make room on the 25-man. the optional assignment would've required a minimum of 10 days, as does the disabled list. suter will be earning major league service time and the major league portion of his pay while on the disabled list. Of course there's a chance. 10 days of service time probably never even cross David Stearns mind. What may have crossed his mind would be sending a guy down who's pitched well for most of the year...probably well over his head and helped keep the Brewers in it and given that he's likely to come back just in order to clear a roster spot for the next 10 days and taking one and a half big league checks away from the guy. Again, something that would be of almost no consequence to the big league club, but for a guy who has never made any money and who's earned it this year, is probably pretty significant. I doubt there's anything wrong with Suter other than convenience with regards to roster manipulation.
  2. My guess would be that he was wearing some Mets gear given that he made it to Milwaukee pretty quick....but that's just that...a guess.
  3. Could you connect those dots for me? How exactly does sending a guy down who likely wouldn't have pitched during his 10 day stint anyway suggest that Walker is at all likely to be traded again? Now I'm not saying I can't see him getting traded...IF the Brewers fall further back and if someone gets hurt or whatever. I'm just not seeing the logic behind Suter being sent down when he's not needed leading to said trade. Seems to me it's pretty cut and dry. They need a roster space so like teams always do, they put a guy who's start was getting skipped on the 10 day in order to create said roster space.
  4. It's silly and historically stupid. Cecil Cooper was, by several factors, a better player than Jim Gantner was. I mean, I love 'em both, grew up in the late 70s/80s, etc., but if the Brewers issue 15 they ought to issue 17. Has any media outlet every written about why this is? Oh...nobody dislikes "Gumby" more than me. He is the most arrogant, obnoxious person I've ever met. I bumped into him a couple times when I was younger and the guy was just creepy and belligerent. The first time was when I was 20 years old. I went to a bar/restuarant with a GF. I was a fairly big guy and was wrestling in college at the time. Anyway, we had a table, we ordered some food, I walked up to the bar to purchase a couple beverages and he sits down at the table that I was at. He puts his arm around my then GF and and is pulling a Joe Namath...almost. He's kinda pulling at her...and I walk over and try to be polite. I shook his hand, and then kinda forced my way in between the two as she was pulling away. So I didn't push him or force him away. The guy, blood shot eyes and all looks at me slurring, "do you know who the ----I am? I'll..(then suggest he would engage in activities with my GF whenever he wanted). Bumped into him again about 4-5 years later at the same bar. Not as interesting a story, so I'll cut it short, but he's just as drunk...not certain he was JUST drunk, but don't want to speculate more than that and he's playing pool...and he's just awful. So the place starts to fill up, people have their quarters on the table...he loses and he goes to put more quarters in. Cut to the end, he's arguing with several people, they ask me for my "opinion," though I don't know why...you lose, you lose the table. Basic bar rules. So I said that and he went off on another little tantrum telling me he doesn't care how "bad" I think I am, he could still kick my rear" in not so many words. Now in between those I did see him 7-8 times and I saw him with Auggie as I knew the family fairly well and he was usually drunk those times, but those were parties or events...like a bar's own little out-door parties. Bottom line, every time I've seen him he was pretty drunk and twice he wanted to fight me without really any provocation and he's pretty aggressive with much younger girls(though to be clear he never cross a line...just made her uncomfortable). So yeah, not only do I think the ONLY thing Gantner had going for him was he HAPPENED to play with Molly and Yount and helped form a trio that had more hits than any other trio in MLB history due to the two HOF'ers, not the league average 2nd basemen(at least it used to), I think he's personally an obnoxious drunk.
  5. Looks like there might be something to these Dominican Republic and Cuban players.... Seriously though, my thought is that this is a bit of an aberration. Obviously so much talent comes out of LA countries and with Cuban players able to come over more freely now obviously a lot of talent has come over recently. Pipeline does seem a bit more stubborn to move guys in season. For instance, I think a guy like Burnes should probably rank higher on their list and I think the opinions of Moncada have cooled a bit. I also think it's nice to finally NOT see that list littered with Cubs.
  6. I'm still waiting a player who's NOT aging. Like a Clayton Kershaw type who just stays 27 years old his entire career until his arm falls off. Seriously though, all those things are true. What's also true. 5 million for a back of the rotation pitcher isn't very expensive. Especially when you're only committed to one single year. Only way they come cheaper is if you've developed them or traded for them while they are in the minors... Which kinda describes Davies, Suter, Woodruff... y'know, three-fifths of the current Brewers rotation. As well as Nelson. He still playing on a pre arby contract this year. And we have a nice group who could follow these guys starting with Burnes, Ortiz and Peralta potentially as soon as next year and then guys like Bickford, Supak, Diplan and others right behind them(I know I left a whole lot of guys out). Yet there's always a need for pitching prospects. And a guy like Garza is basically like a lottery ticket. You trade him to a team that has some question marks in their pen and to a team that expects to contend and you target a couple 18 year old kids and hope that like Peralta blossomed from that Line trade, they do the same. If they don't, it's not like it cost you anything(just talking about the team option next year, not his contract as a whole).
  7. Chris Sale in 2010 out of the bullpen threw 392 pitches in 23.1 innings. Josh Hader this year has thrown 402 pitches in 22.1 innings. Josh Hader has a .81 ERA versus Sale having a 1.93 ERA in 2010. That means almost literally nothing regarding what he said about his command. It's absolutely a fact that unless Hader makes significant improvements with regard to both his command and control within the zone he won't be a starter. I'll take that a step further and say that he can't maintain this type of walk rate and be a successful reliever in the big leagues. Sale also had a better FIP that year and walked about 3 fewer batters per 9 IP. I can't think of a pitcher who walks nearly 7 guys per 9 IP who's had success at the big league level. You see Hader and you see he can be a really good pitcher. His stuff is exceptional, he's deceptive, etc..etc..etc..and I believe he will be. But you can't use pitches thrown and ERA, ESPECIALLY in such a tiny sample size to make any viable comparison or statement about how he can maintain future success without improving. Again, I think he will so I'm not bashing him. But there is no doubt that a starting pitcher cannot get away with that many walks and having to use that many pitches to get outs. It's just not sustainable. Comps with young players are almost always ridiculous like this. Remember when Nelson was drafted and people used Suppan as a comp and most people were then disgusted with the pick? Suppan had a career WAR of 20.4. Nelson had 4 career WAR entering this year. So that's probably why people are overly ambitious with their comps. Realistic ones aren't nearly as fun! I guess the best optimistic comp would be Andrew Miller though. There just aren't that many lanky lefties with that similar delivery who've had success. I think Hader's career has a better chance to be similar to Miller's than anyone else that comes to mind while still falling short, but I'm still holding out hope he can carve out a stop atop our rotation for the next 4-5 or so years.
  8. This is one of the biggest questions for me as well. I didn't hold him in very high regard at all..either when we traded for him or after last season despite some outstanding outings. Yet I saw his name mentioned a couple times as a "break out" candidate and one fangraphs article had him "realizing his potential" as one of their bold predictions(another was that Arcia would hit this year and be more valuable than Aledmys Díaz offensively). So I'm not really sure on that one. I do know that I would definitely like to see Josh Hader in a starting role next year. I think the chances are at least 50/50 he ends up as a reliever, but he's been so good and he's been so good in longer stints that I just think you're doing yourself a major disservice by relinquishing him to the BP before he's failed as a starter. What's more interesting to me is what the rotation could look like in 2019. You could easily see Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta in the mix with Anderson, Nelson, Davies. And then guys like Ponce, Supak, Diplan, and Bickford(still absolutely no clue what to expect from him as a Brewer). I don't see an ace, but I see a lot of guys with good stuff who can keep you in games...and I think all this young controllable talent, along with the young cheap talent at most positions could actually allow the Brewers to jump in the mix for a legit ace in free agency. The type that are virtually always too expensive. Perhaps a Dallas Keuchel...of course Kershaw's also going to be a free agent that year..not that that matters at all. But I could definitely see us jumping in at some point in the future and signing that marquee FA like the D-backs did with Grienke if we have cheap talent everywhere else.
  9. I'm still waiting a player who's NOT aging. Like a Clayton Kershaw type who just stays 27 years old his entire career until his arm falls off. Seriously though, all those things are true. What's also true. 5 million for a back of the rotation pitcher isn't very expensive. Especially when you're only committed to one single year.
  10. The list of people you must just have pure disdain for must be a mile long. If a guy is "forever a dick" and cannot be redeemed because he refused to go to the pen, then frankly the problem is you and not him at THIS point. If you're unable to move past what all of his teammates and what the rest of the organization has...maybe you have a little bit of trouble moving past people's mistakes. Along those same lines, I would imagine you've never done anything you would regret. I'm pretty much indifferent to Garza. I generally expect him to be a guy who keeps us in games, but he's obviously changed and grown into a new type of pitcher. As for him being removed from the BP, the response he had to being asked to move to the pen is the result of the same attitude that people love from him when he was coming up. He's extremely competitive and extremely intense. Well, the Brewers demoted him and he acted foolishly. To essentially say regardless of what he does moving forward your opinion of him won't change is as foolish to me as the comment about getting rid of someone who's capable of having such a bad game. Either way, as it stands now, they'll pick up the option. And it doesn't take a "bad GM" or a "stupid team" to want a cheap, veteran 5th starter. It simply takes a team like the Dodgers, Yankees, someone along those lines who can afford the luxury of a 5th, 6th or even 7th pitcher on a cheap 1 year deal.
  11. No, they're not. In terms of how they are currently playing of course not but over the season the Brewers definitely are better than the Twins. Look at run differential. The Twins have gotten hot and that is what matters but they have really bad pitching staff all the way around with the exception of santana. And that one pitcher, Ervin Santana has an FIP of 4.78. I agree, the Brewers are a better team than the Twins. But they're also in a much easier position to make the playoffs. Easier division, easier path to the WC. But your point is entirely valid. One week and a teams outcome can completely change. There tends to be a group think type mentality. Walker has a bad OPS since the ASB so he's not much of an upgrade. The Brewers are terrible because they've been terrible for a stretch(and really it's been their offense). The Twins are better because they beat the Brewers when one team was hot and the other cold. Not sure what there is to suggest the Twins are a better team..but I'd take the Brewers.
  12. I agree with part of this. We need to see what we have in Villar. Villar was solid for Houston..though behind two of the best players in the game and then was a legit stud for us last year. Now he's struggled for half a season(little more for those who like to nitpick). He's clearly got the talent and while I like Walker and think picking his OPS since the ASB is a totally arbitrary date, I never thought the Brewers were good enough to try to trade for anyone of significance and they've made it this far....go with the young guys you have. They're still in a race. See how they can hold up down the stretch. Of course if you still believe the Brewers are in the race as they are mathematically, then this is a good move. He's had a solid season and he's a consistent player from year to year.
  13. I think you know better than to compare an advanced college bat who's thriving right out of the gate with any pitcher....
  14. And we'll lose 90 games! This was my problem with him getting the job this early. You knew this team would struggle...and OBVIOUSLY David Stearns didn't except this years team to be a legit contender since he wasn't willing to pony up for a guy like Gray. But now the manager who got this team to play well over his head should now be punished for doing a good job? I think Counsell is about as likely as any Brewer not named Arcia to be back in a Brewers uniform next year.
  15. I'm not sure when or how it was determined that OPB is more important than SLG, but from a team standpoint about a year ago I did an analysis of the past 5 or 10 years of team data and SLG had a slightly higher correlation to runs scored than OBP. I thought it was Bill James...and how...I don't know. I don't know the formula's that go into many of the stats exactly. We'll see how Neil Walker does for us...that should be a solid upgrade..
  16. He doesn't consistently throw 98. Ok, change it to 97. He can consistently crank it up to 97 when he needs to. But that's not really the point. The question is can he maintain his velocity through 100 pitches as a starter. But isn't that kinda the question with every young pitcher? I do know that he can't possibly maintain his nearly 6BB/9 IP ratio as a starter, but hopefully he can clean that up. It does seem like his fastball gets on hitters a little quicker because of his delivery and he may still have a little bit of projection left in him. I see Fangraphs has his changeup rated as a 50 right now with a potential future grade of 60 for what that's worth. I think his ability to hit that grade answers the question as to where his future lies. For reference sake his fastball is 60/60 and his slider is 55/60. So at least they view his changeup as being a more than viable 3rd pitch.
  17. It's the same player that nobody wanted to trade for. Nobody wanted to give up anything for him. So his hometown team ended up signing him. That's what happened. Given how ownership has supported this team financially, I think it's just beyond ridiculous to suggest that the Brewers made this move to save 2 million dollars rather than they just didn't think he was good enough/or figured into the future of the team. At the time, we had a guy who put up a 4 WAR coming back at the only position he can really play effectively and a guy who didn't have to sit vs lefties. Plus we had plenty of depth. Now I don't have a crystal ball, so I have no idea if he's gonna come back to the Brewers next year, but would you say that if he were a free agent he would get more or less than 5 million dollars on a ONE year deal? I think just about everyone would say over and most people would likely argue that it would take probably 2 years and 24 million or even 3/36 to sign him next year as a free agent. So I think it's a given his option is picked up. Provided he doesn't have some type of major injury, his option will be picked up. The question is does he then get dealt for whatever we can get for him, or do the Brewers keep a proven, viable middle to back of the rotation starter who is a vet to provide insurance against what is a largely unproven young rotation. To not pick up the option given what Garza has done right now would be akin to just giving away an asset. Either an asset that can help your team win or one that can be used to trade for a couple of young guys who MAY eventually help them win. Either way, I believe it'd be foolish to not pick it up.
  18. As much as you hate Villar, his 2016 numbers indicate that the Brewers made the better choice. It really is too bad that he has regressed so badly this year, but Sterns made the decision based on potential. Gennett was 100% a known quantity at the time. And also prone to horrible streaky play. Lets also keep in mind he's 26 years old and is a natural shortstop who is playing 2nd base regularly for the first time. You see these types of regressions fairly often with young players who break out and then turn down long term deals. He likely started out pressing which led to struggles which led to more pressing. Baseball is a miserable game when you get caught in that cycle. He has however shown he can hit 20 HR's(or dang near if anyone wants to nitpick) and was very dangerous on the base paths. Of course he was dangerous to both us and the opposing teams, but the point remains, there's a lot of talent there and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him bounce back and put up a .270/.350/450 slash line in the future. I seem to remember a whole lot of people give up on another young MIF'er who had a great year 1 in Milwaukee and then struggled and is now an All Star in Seattle(not arguing we shouldn't have made that trade at all for the record).
  19. Hader is supposed to have a change he uses only against RH hitters. Either he hasn't needed it or would break it out the second time through. Should be a priority in the spring. Woodruff was terrific. I think a six man rotation is in order when Anderson returns. Its certainly possible given that he's only pitched out of the pen that he just hasn't thrown it enough or needed it enough to use it...which means it's probably not all that sharpe which would make him even more hesitant to use it. Anyway, should have read through the posts. Looks like my thoughts pretty much matched up with everyone else's. Change looked great, he looked very composed and I think the Cal Eldred thing was a little tongue in cheek...but only a little bit. I do hold out a LITTLE hope that he can put together one of those runs that you see out of rookie pitchers from time to time. Obviously Eldred's run in '92 is not gonna happen, but it would be nice if he could settle in and provide a big boost. Either way, I'd much rather wait and see what he can do than be watching the box scores in Oakland to see how he did while watching what Sonny Gray does for us....
  20. Bill? Is that you Mr. Schroeder? Yes, he missed his marks and Pena had to actually move to catch the ball. I have to be honest, I got real annoyed listening to Schroeder saying that all night long. And I would also add that not only did Woodruff also get UNLUCKY last night with a couple of bloopers falling in, and an error that forced him to pitch out of a 1st and 3rd with 0 out situation, but that his ability to get a big strikeout when he needs it with men on base is not luck, it's talent. And getting the swings and misses he did when he missed his spots can tell you a little bit about his stuff as well. I would agree with you, his command was not always great last night. I do think he was pitching better toward the end.
  21. He's very similar to a Jimmy Nelson if Nelson added a really solid change. Now I know that's no small thing, I just mean his demeanor, his attitude on the mound and just more basically just how he looks out there. I don't know what grade his change his on it, but there were times last night where it just looked filthy. Hader probably will be a BP guy(I wouldn't say just because I think he can be an extremely important BP guy) but I'd like to see him start at some point next year. He looks like he gets better as he goes out there. I wonder if he couldn't be a poor man's Sale. I also wonder if his arm could hold up over 180+ innings a year.
  22. I could see the Brewers giving him even one more year as a reliever...albeit one who gets more run and who pitches more regularly and then becomes a starter. Maybe he even becomes a starter during the year next year similar to what the Twins did with Santana(yes, different situations, but the end result may be the same). If I had to put money on the table and say where is he gonna help us out the most, I would probably say in an Andrew Miller type role(though as much as I like him, he's not Miller). But I would certainly like to see him given a shot to be a starting pitcher. The Brewers are closer than they've been since Nick Neugabauer, Ben Sheets, Jeff D'Amico and JM Gold were all in their organization to having what could be a really solid home grown rotation. It's possible we could see a rotation of Nelson, Hader, Woodruff, Barnes, Ortiz and maybe a Peralta or any number of other options mixed in there as well.
  23. This seems to be one of those exceptionally rare years in which the Brewers young talented arms takes a collective step. Guys go from the bottom of our top 20-30 lists to top 100 prospects, top 100 guys make big impacts at the big league levels... We've always had talented arms....but it's been a long time since we've had several young arms actually out-perform out expectations or even realistic hopes for what they could or would do. Bickford's the obvious exception. It'd be great to see him get on the mound and then get some run in the fall and see if he can become a solid late inning high leverage reliever for us in the near future.
  24. Even if he doesn't see AAA and he starts at AA again next year, there's no reason they can't call him up straight from AA. He's got the stuff, he looks like he's a mature pitcher...seems exactly like the type of guy who would move fast and be in consideration by next year.
  25. You are correct that it doesn't count against the draft bonus pool. Without knowing the exact details of the failed physical it is difficult to assess his value. It is interesting that the Orioles didn't make the minimum 40% offer which would have prevented Jack Conlon from becoming a free agent, but they weren't going to get the 4th round pick back regardless since it is unprotected. They did the kid a huge favor as he is now possibly looking at a deal in the millions. I am really curious to see how this plays out. Also agree that it would be great to see the Brewers take a shot if they have less concerns about the medicals. Makes you wonder if in the future some guys might find ways to fudge their health to get out the draft pool and become free agents. Seems like that's a bit far fetched. Teams read MRI's and evaluate a lot of medical data. I doubt they're going to be able to say it hurts to throw and the team is gonna pass on signing them if there isn't any matching evidence.
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