obobo55new
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Everything posted by obobo55new
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I just found it an interesting data point. I do think they have a pretty good team, particularly the rotation and bullpen. They lack stars on offense and play in a pretty fair park so they don't score as much as a team like Cincy, but I get frustrated when some here act like losing to Pittsburgh is crazy.
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They are 6-27 against 5 teams (AZ, LAD, Philly, Wash, Atl). 71-47 against everyone else.
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The biggest problem I have with the schedules is the sporadic nature of the current off-days. Having 2 in the same 7 day period (Mon & Thr with a 2 game series between, Thr & Mon surrounding a weekend) or like the Brewers have with every Thr in September. Seems that you could easily play 13 games every 2 weeks. 13x13=169 minus 4 off days for all star break would yield 3 extra off days sprinkled here or there. I do think all teams should be off on the final Thursday of the season. Give everyone a chance to reset the bullpen for the last 3 games. But having extra days off in September other than being better for the gate is not beneficial with expanded rosters. DHs in general are truly gone. Fans aren't interested in 7-8hr time investment of the traditional and split doubleheaders are just a pain. Horrible for starters and bullpens. The biggest thing is the poor weather. There are 7 roofed stadia. Those should be hosting in early April. Play a few more in sunny California, Atlanta, Texas and you are close to a full slate. Yeah it might suck to always start on the road for Mn, Chc, Det, NY, Bos, Cle, but they chose not to build a roof.
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Just thought I'd revisit this. For those fans that think the Pirates are a crappy team that the Brewers should dominate... In 33 games played vs the NL West, the Crew was an amazing 23-10. For whatever reason, the Pirates played those same teams to a 12-21 record. On the season, the buccaneers stand 9 games behind our beloved team. Had they been able to replicate the stellar record that the Brewers have done they would be 2 games higher in the standings. My guess is that the Pirates less than stellar offense gets even further dampened playing in those tough pitcher's parks and their good pitching can't help enough. edit: Totally wrong on my guess. They went 7-9 on the road, scoring 83 runs(5.2/gm) They went 5-12 at home (just 67 runs, <4/gm).
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Compare to the Cubs OF options-- Schwarber, Zobrist, Almora, Heyward, Happ Braun even in this season is very near being better than any of them.
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Just a question in case anyone knows... What do guys like Peralta do with all the days off? Do they pitch simulated games to keep some sort of stamina/strength? If they got to game 161 with nothing riding on the game, it would be cool to let him throw. That goes for Woodruff or any of the other guys that really aren't being relied upon.
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LOL. It is 10 hits. Yes those matter. Just hard to say that he is any different than last year based on the numbers. A few less walks and 8 less runs could simply be because he is batting lower in the order. Virtually same K's, SB, HRs. Just one hit every other week and he is the same. I'm not arguing about whether he is an MVP. Not even arguing that he should play every day. He is still a solid player though and I was surprised how similar the numbers were.
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5 doubles, 1 triple, 2 extra HRs. 13 extra bases is really not a big difference. The 10 extra hits get counted twice in OPS. Of his 92 hits, 36 are for extra bases. So say he gets 4 doubles in those 10 more hits he had last year and it narrows further. Hard to believe that with as many hard hit balls as he has had that were outs this year. One hit every other week and he has an identical year. I think a big part of his overall drop from his best years is directly tied to his slowing down a bit. He used to get a bunch of infield hits that simply don't happen anymore.
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Year Team LG G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS GO/AO 2017 MIL NL 104 380 58 102 185 28 2 17 52 38 2 76 12 4 .268 .336 .487 .823 1.51 2018 MIL NL 115 373 50 92 162 23 1 15 52 30 5 76 11 4 .247 .304 .434 .738 1.33 Across-the-board, nearly the same counting stats. A few less walks. 11 more games and 7 fewer ABs so obviously being used more as a PH. Shows how much a few extra hits (10) parlays into a large difference in OPS.
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Trying to bridge the gap between the doom&gloom and no-worry people. I completely understand that the reason "good" teams lose to "poor" teams. A lot if it is matchups, a guy like Williams for Pitt will simply pitch great and there isn't much anyone can do.(even if your lineup resembles the '27 Yankees). For the Debbie Downers, I completely get that seeing your team get decent pitching and put out a measly 3 hits in multiple games is exasperating. (How can I get behind a team that can't muster an offense?). The point I keep coming back to is that just a week or so ago this same group took 4 of 6 vs the Cubs. They only need to do that again in a playoff series and everyone will be ecstatic. Just need to get that far and do it again. Enjoy the ride. It will end far too soon. Then we have nothing for us to overanalyze than potential off-season targets and why Stearns isn't getting the ace we need... -
2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Interesting nugget... NL Central is currently 55-35 vs the AL Central. Total games over for the division is +40. So half of the positive gains for our division are vs interleague. West vs West is .500, East vs East is +8 for AL. Al West is 112-50 against the AL Central. -
2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I might have missed stating the point of my hypothetical. Even if they win that Sunday game, there is no guarantee that the Cubs lose and even if they do, it still requires an enormous expenditure to win #163 to finalize a true positive outcome. Do you make that bet when deciding on your Sunday starter? Would you be better off just going with a different option (Woodruff?) and take a see what happens approach? Then if there is a game 163, you can start Anderson, have Chacin for the WC with Miley ready for game 1 of NLDS. -
2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hypothetical... Last game of the year. Brewers are 1 back of Cubs for division going into start of day. Win (& Cubs loss) and you are forced to pitch Chacin in game 163. Miley has pitched on Friday game and if you lose that 163rd game, would not be available for the WC game. 1) Do you start Anderson? He would then be unavailable for 163, WC & 1st game of NLDS 2) If so, what is the plan for the WC game? No Chacin, no Miley, no Anderson...does Davies go? 3) How hard can you go to win the Sunday game? Knowing the best case scenario forces you to use the pen on Sunday and Monday and then the true elimination game on Tuesday if you lose 163 in Wrigley. The benefit of winning the division on Monday is HUGE, but the downside of adding an extra game into that window make it a difficult decision... -
2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Gosh, I still want to hope for the division. Getting tough to imagine. WC is looking pretty good. If the Crew goes just 7-5, both the Cards and Dodgers would need to go 10-2 to force a tie. One might do that, but hard to believe that both will. Just my opinion, if they can't do 7-5 against this closing slate, they don't deserve to be in. -
2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The way I look at it is for the 2nd wildcard team, a single game playoff is better than not getting in at all. Fir the #1 wild card, you get the game at home and far more likely to be able to setup your rotation to put forth your best SP. That is a lot in your favor. Either WC team should be at a disadvantage to their.opponent which actually won a division. Because the schedule is unbalanced, reseeding based on record is silly. -
According to the probable pitchers, the Crew is skipping Miley and pitching Chacin on Sunday. Pirates--Gio, Davies, Chacin Reds--Miley, Anderson, Gio off day Pirates--Chacin, Miley, Davies Cards--Anderson, Gio, Chacin off day Tigers--Miley, ???, ??? That would give Chacin 5 days off if he starts the Tuesday WC.
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
If they add 2 teams, I would argue for 4 divisions rather than 8. Too crazy to have a 4 team division with Yanks/Sox and 2 teams that never win. Division winner and 2 wild cards for each division. #1 wild card from each division host #2 from the other for 3 games (#2 gets no home games unless they advance). Division 1- Yankees, RedSox, Baltimore, Toronto, Mets, Phillies, Nats, Montreal? Division 2- Braves, Marlins, Rays, Astros, Rangers, Cards, Royals, Charlotte/Nashville? Division 3- Brewers, Twins, Cubs, WhiteSox, Tigers, Indians, Reds, Pirates Division 4- Dbacks, Rockies, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, A's, Padres, Giants DH is everywhere, no leagues per se, just put division 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 in a rotation going forward (year two- 1v3, 2v4). Play your aligned playoff division 6 times (48 games). Play 8 3-game crossover (interleague) series split between the 2 divisions (24). That leaves 90 divisional games (6*13, 1*12). -
No game in Pittsburgh that day... I agree that Miller Park should not be an option.
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Phillies would need a monster run combined with a Brewer collapse at this point. Even if the Crew went 6-12, they would need to go 14-6 to tie us. Arizona would need to go 12-7 in that scenario. Not writing them off quite yet, but to me it is really the 2nd place NL West team that we need to worry about. Go Reds!!!
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Simply because they pitched Gio ahead of Davies in this past series, unless they do something strange (bullpen day or throw someone else not among the 5), Gio is a virtual lock to pitch 3 games. Miley/Chacin/Anderson will pitch 4 apiece. Then it is a choice whether Gio gets a 4th game or Davies gets a 3rd.
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If they want Chacin available to start the WC game instead, it appears that he or Miley would have to get skipped to do so. Sept 11 is his next start. On normal rest, his next start would be the Sunday the 16th (skipping one of Gio/Davies). Then the 21st is a Thursday off day, so they have a choice of Miley or Chacin to pitch on the 22nd (Fri) and 27th (Wed). That choice would miss the final Det series and be lined up for the Tuesday WC game. Since the Cards are the most likely opponent and they are severely right-hand oriented, think you would want Chacin, no?
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Here is how it lines up: Cubs--Miley, Chacin Anderson, off day Pirates--Gio, Davies, Miley Reds--Chacin, Anderson, Gio off day Pirates--Davies, Miley, Chacin Cards--Anderson, Gio, Davies off day Tigers--Miley, Chacin, Anderson If they stay this way (not skipping a start), the Tuesday WC game would be tough for either Miley or Chacin. Do you skip either Davies or Gio in this Pirates series? It could look like this: Cubs--Miley, Chacin Anderson, off day Pirates--Gio, Miley, Chacin Reds--Anderson, Davies, Gio off day Pirates--Miley, Chacin, Anderson Cards--Davies, Gio, Miley off day Tigers--Chacin, Anderson, Davies/Gio I think the management has to be looking at this. Of course, rain in Chi/Pitt/StL could play havoc, but I think you have to plan it out this way.
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But that is the way you need to manage. Hard to go all out every game without an extremely deep pen. Ideally, either tomorrow or Tuesday you get a big lead. Then you use your somewhat less reliable guys. Reality is that it will be hard to get a ton of runs off Lester or Quintana. My plan would be to use JJ and Hader in Game 1. If game 2 goes your way, you can use both again and hope game 3 works out. If game 2 is a tie game or you trail, hold out both guys and go strong with both on Wednesday. One nice thing is we have Peralta back. I have some confidence in him out of the pen. Yeah he walks guys, but is tough to hit. Just wanted to add that I do like some of the other options in the pen, but obviously those 2 have been so good all year.
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Plan for tomorrow: Miley with at least 6 innings. Get a lead. Only use Hader and JJ for an inning apiece so either or both can pitch in Tues and/or Wed. Like others have said, just need a series win. Get the first game and you can play the other 2 with a bit of comfort knowing that you just need to get one of those. This team is on quite a roll. Keep the pressure on the Cubs and they will crack.
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2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion
obobo55new replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm all in rooting for Colorado. The Dodgers have 20 games remaining and only 6 at home. Can't see them going on a huge run with that. Give them another L today and it makes it that much tougher.