TJseven7

His stuff was much better for most of those sub 4 era seasons. His first season with the Brewers and 2nd half the prior season were the classic "reinvent himself as a pitcher" seasons where he threw half sliders half fastballs. For starters, that catches up with your arm. Also, Chacin needs extended stretches of basically spotting those pitches exactly where he wants to have success as he's a 2 pitch starter and only the slider is plus. In 2019, he could spot the slider consistently but not the fastball. We saw the results. On top of that, even when he was on in 2018...I was still generally surprised he posted a 3.5 ERA considering his metrics. K rate, BB rate, BABIP, contact stats. Looking at those for 2018 don't paint the picture of a 3.5 ERA guy. You look at Woodruff stuff and those same metrics for 2019 Woodruff, it's clear who the better pitcher is and it's not close. That's a lot of thinking to explain to create a story about why a guy with one of the most dominant sliders in baseball fell on his face with a new ball that destroyed a lot of slider pitchers.

Well there goes Bettis. For pennies. The Yankees have invited right-hander Chad Bettis to camp on a minor-league deal that according to The Post’s Joel Sherman would pay him $1.5 million if he makes the big league club and includes $2 million in performances bonuses. Would have liked him in our system.

Well there goes Bettis. For pennies. The Yankees have invited right-hander Chad Bettis to camp on a minor-league deal that according to The Post’s Joel Sherman would pay him $1.5 million if he makes the big league club and includes $2 million in performances bonuses. Would have liked him in our system.

I feel like the Holt signing really kicked me over the edge on the Moneyball line of thinking as well. Narvaez can't field Sogard Gyorko Holt? Smoak Braun at 1st. Lindblom from KBO and Phelps off the forgotten heap. Anderson a notorious injury prone pitcher. Team looks to platoon an infield. They signed a ton of guys and other than Garcia no ones paid over 5 mil. The entire infield is under 5 mil per except Braun. I stated on the lineup thread. 1250 ish PA by guys under 650 OPS last year. Some WAY under. If career numbers hold and Urias develops to a 700 OPS guy the team, ON PAPER, has 100 Arcia PAs under 700 OPS. 1150 PAs go up over 50 OPS at the bottom. That's 2 starters worth of PA while paying no one over 5mil. Pretty incredible and many platoon even stronger. Garcia has to be walking around with a strut in the locker room. Guy actually got paid over 1 WAR value per year. Big dog. 4th highest paid player on the team and all 4 are OFs. Again just stunning. But "The Yankees have invited right-hander Chad Bettis to camp on a minor-league deal that according to The Post’s Joel Sherman would pay him $1.5 million if he makes the big league club and includes $2 million in performances bonuses." And Cashner would have made it much more stable.

I feel like the Holt signing really kicked me over the edge on the Moneyball line of thinking as well. Narvaez can't field Sogard Gyorko Holt? Smoak Braun at 1st. Lindblom from KBO and Phelps off the forgotten heap. Anderson a notorious injury prone pitcher. Team looks to platoon an infield. They signed a ton of guys and other than Garcia no ones paid over 5 mil. The entire infield is under 5 mil per except Braun. I stated on the lineup thread. 1250 ish PA by guys under 650 OPS last year. Some WAY under. If career numbers hold and Urias develops to a 700 OPS guy the team, ON PAPER, has 100 Arcia PAs under 700 OPS. 1150 PAs go up over 50 OPS at the bottom. That's 2 starters worth of PA while paying no one over 5mil. Pretty incredible and many platoon even stronger. Garcia has to be walking around with a strut in the locker room. Guy actually got paid over 1 WAR value per year. Big dog. 4th highest paid player on the team and all 4 are OFs. Again just stunning. But "The Yankees have invited right-hander Chad Bettis to camp on a minor-league deal that according to The Post’s Joel Sherman would pay him $1.5 million if he makes the big league club and includes $2 million in performances bonuses." And Cashner would have made it much more stable.

I always wonder about him though. We've seen some dudes spring board from what seems like nowhere. Grisham and Harrison hit 21-22 and boom away they went. He's that athlete at 22 where OBP outshines everything else. I don't see it happening but if you told you had a crystal ball and he blew up from A to AA this year and made himself a prospect again, well let's say it wouldn't be the most surprising possibility. HS kid in the draft paid Erceg money not your typical 11th round pick, he was expected to go to college. It's possible but it also feels like he's in that now or never year. As for the RPs. I just don't like seeing RPs on top 30 lists. Rasmussen sure he could dominate, but if you've lost your starter upside before you hit the majors I'm not too fond of your system value. List me off 8 teenage DSL lottery tickets. I'm fine with that they have upside that can't be replaced by Phelps or Claudio. If I can buy your equivalent for under 2mil a year. What 3-4 mil value. Blah...

I always wonder about him though. We've seen some dudes spring board from what seems like nowhere. Grisham and Harrison hit 21-22 and boom away they went. He's that athlete at 22 where OBP outshines everything else. I don't see it happening but if you told you had a crystal ball and he blew up from A to AA this year and made himself a prospect again, well let's say it wouldn't be the most surprising possibility. HS kid in the draft paid Erceg money not your typical 11th round pick, he was expected to go to college. It's possible but it also feels like he's in that now or never year. As for the RPs. I just don't like seeing RPs on top 30 lists. Rasmussen sure he could dominate, but if you've lost your starter upside before you hit the majors I'm not too fond of your system value. List me off 8 teenage DSL lottery tickets. I'm fine with that they have upside that can't be replaced by Phelps or Claudio. If I can buy your equivalent for under 2mil a year. What 3-4 mil value. Blah...

They could really blow it up massively in the 2022 offseason. Ditto 2023. I think the farm is what decides that. Small Ashby File Rasmussen Kelly a slew of catchers and OFs (galore... CRod Lutz Bello Gray Ray Perez Medina Ward) could open the window quite a ways. Even if you never put Houser Peralta in the rotation. Woodruff Lauer are controlled 5 years. Burnes is controlled 5 years. If Burnes settles in and they hit on 2 of these young starters (and I only listed my favorites) they have a chance at a 2023 and 2024 rotation made up of ONLY farm arms and a young trade piece. That would be something else, that would keep the window open even with Yelich gone. It's going to be hard to keep it open much longer than 6-7 years total (4-5 more) but it's not out of the question. Then again, they could blow it up massively, let DS retool and stock the farm extremely deep. I honestly think that DS could put together an 80 win team with a 90 mil budget on 1 year fodder fliers and platooners during a massive sell off. Just enough to keep people coming to the park while setting up another run.

They could really blow it up massively in the 2022 offseason. Ditto 2023. I think the farm is what decides that. Small Ashby File Rasmussen Kelly a slew of catchers and OFs (galore... CRod Lutz Bello Gray Ray Perez Medina Ward) could open the window quite a ways. Even if you never put Houser Peralta in the rotation. Woodruff Lauer are controlled 5 years. Burnes is controlled 5 years. If Burnes settles in and they hit on 2 of these young starters (and I only listed my favorites) they have a chance at a 2023 and 2024 rotation made up of ONLY farm arms and a young trade piece. That would be something else, that would keep the window open even with Yelich gone. It's going to be hard to keep it open much longer than 6-7 years total (4-5 more) but it's not out of the question. Then again, they could blow it up massively, let DS retool and stock the farm extremely deep. I honestly think that DS could put together an 80 win team with a 90 mil budget on 1 year fodder fliers and platooners during a massive sell off. Just enough to keep people coming to the park while setting up another run.

You overdid it on the SS. Only 650 PA you had 700. Took 50 off Urias due to injury concerns opening up. Last year this team had 1253 PA by guys sub 650 OPS. I sure hope Urias 649 Gyorko 730 Gamel 720 Pina 725 Arcia 652 bring that up. Those are their career OPS. So I'm expecting a lot more 700 baseline OPS guys than 650s and below. The only real concern is Arcia and 100 PA is nothing. Even TTaylor and Nottingham could put up 700 stashed in AAA. Who knows about Healy Lomo etc. Holt was a surprising addition this late and it seems like overkill, but I love me some depth overkill. This team could platoon themselves into having very very few PAs taken by guys sub 700 OPS. A 50 point OPS increase on 2 starters worth of PAs helps us forget Moose and Grandal quick. If Cain can get back in that 360 OBP range. This'll be a fun offense.

You overdid it on the SS. Only 650 PA you had 700. Took 50 off Urias due to injury concerns opening up. Last year this team had 1253 PA by guys sub 650 OPS. I sure hope Urias 649 Gyorko 730 Gamel 720 Pina 725 Arcia 652 bring that up. Those are their career OPS. So I'm expecting a lot more 700 baseline OPS guys than 650s and below. The only real concern is Arcia and 100 PA is nothing. Even TTaylor and Nottingham could put up 700 stashed in AAA. Who knows about Healy Lomo etc. Holt was a surprising addition this late and it seems like overkill, but I love me some depth overkill. This team could platoon themselves into having very very few PAs taken by guys sub 700 OPS. A 50 point OPS increase on 2 starters worth of PAs helps us forget Moose and Grandal quick. If Cain can get back in that 360 OBP range. This'll be a fun offense.

That's where I'm at. If he wants to toss some PR on the 25-ish million less in spending this year that's his choice but I'd assume that's really all this is. My complaints aren't something that needs 25 mil to fix. More like 3-4. That's strategical/depth criticism not owner spending criticism. The platoon a lineup with a 13th batter on the roster will be fun to see. It's feels very moneyball. I think most of my arms complaints will be solved by 2021 through the farm, but we'll see how 2020 goes. I'll be honest. I hate the whole, we could leave, pay for the stadium garbage. I don't believe tax payers should be paying towards something that increases the value of any individuals investment but that's how the world works and these stadiums/ballparks are just the visible tip of the iceberg. When people complain about owners not spending enough I go, well could he have just paid for his own stadium? He can pitch whatever number he wants for salary. As stated in the quote, its not like MKE is the slum of MiLB. MKE is also hovering around league average payroll despite not being the league average market.

That's where I'm at. If he wants to toss some PR on the 25-ish million less in spending this year that's his choice but I'd assume that's really all this is. My complaints aren't something that needs 25 mil to fix. More like 3-4. That's strategical/depth criticism not owner spending criticism. The platoon a lineup with a 13th batter on the roster will be fun to see. It's feels very moneyball. I think most of my arms complaints will be solved by 2021 through the farm, but we'll see how 2020 goes. I'll be honest. I hate the whole, we could leave, pay for the stadium garbage. I don't believe tax payers should be paying towards something that increases the value of any individuals investment but that's how the world works and these stadiums/ballparks are just the visible tip of the iceberg. When people complain about owners not spending enough I go, well could he have just paid for his own stadium? He can pitch whatever number he wants for salary. As stated in the quote, its not like MKE is the slum of MiLB. MKE is also hovering around league average payroll despite not being the league average market.

I'll give you the 2 different FBs. However those 2 pitches are 67% (31-36) of his offerings and their velocity is nearly identical. You put those 2 FBs 95-95 with his averageish CB 80 and he's a very nice reliever. Even calling both of those FBs each a plus pitch and calling the CB average is RP stuff. You can live on an elite FB and below average other offerings and be a starter? Tell that to 2018 Peralta. His FB graded elite in 2018. His starter ERA was 4.4. Didn't help him in 2019. I was pointing to his last 6 starts not August as you said. It wasn't meant to cherry pick it was said because I've heard this story that he struggled as a starter because he wasn't stretched out. He was stretched out then so I figured it might matter. Might matter that the team pulled him early to avoid a 3rd time through. I'm sure there'll be another excuse made to throw that out too. I guess this is how this is going to go. You're going to throw out or make excuses for anything you don't want to see. Oh Tommy John, oh only 10 IP, oh CS. Those are small fragments of the picture. There is a long formed picture though. Every step of the way, A+ to MLB as a starter he has been mediocre. 4.5s (but the stats lie and his K/BB/BABIP yadda yadda). Why at every level are the stats lying? Why at every level is the production better when his starts are SHORT or he's out of the pen. EVERY SINGLE STOP. But the 3rd time through sample size is small, sure is, but it sure looks to repeat itself with him every step of the way. Maybe it has something to do with 2 FBs as his only good pitches. You can take pieces of numbers and metrics out of tons of players and point to why they should be great. You are paralyzing yourself with a narrow view data hunt. The truth is in the full body of work. K/BB does not make you a starter. May point toward MLB talent but doesn't make you a starter. Surely doesn't overshadow that he has years of work as a starter and no matter what the level they've been stagnant and mediocre. His BABIP and strand % has moved considerably in the right direction at the MLB level. Still putting up 4.5 as a starter. What do you prefer. 3.2 2IP reliever or 4.5 5 IP starter? I know my answer. I hear K/BB ad nauseam from Clacy on every single MiLB pitcher. You know how many of those guys never show up? It's a nice stat. It doesn't project much.

I'll give you the 2 different FBs. However those 2 pitches are 67% (31-36) of his offerings and their velocity is nearly identical. You put those 2 FBs 95-95 with his averageish CB 80 and he's a very nice reliever. Even calling both of those FBs each a plus pitch and calling the CB average is RP stuff. You can live on an elite FB and below average other offerings and be a starter? Tell that to 2018 Peralta. His FB graded elite in 2018. His starter ERA was 4.4. Didn't help him in 2019. I was pointing to his last 6 starts not August as you said. It wasn't meant to cherry pick it was said because I've heard this story that he struggled as a starter because he wasn't stretched out. He was stretched out then so I figured it might matter. Might matter that the team pulled him early to avoid a 3rd time through. I'm sure there'll be another excuse made to throw that out too. I guess this is how this is going to go. You're going to throw out or make excuses for anything you don't want to see. Oh Tommy John, oh only 10 IP, oh CS. Those are small fragments of the picture. There is a long formed picture though. Every step of the way, A+ to MLB as a starter he has been mediocre. 4.5s (but the stats lie and his K/BB/BABIP yadda yadda). Why at every level are the stats lying? Why at every level is the production better when his starts are SHORT or he's out of the pen. EVERY SINGLE STOP. But the 3rd time through sample size is small, sure is, but it sure looks to repeat itself with him every step of the way. Maybe it has something to do with 2 FBs as his only good pitches. You can take pieces of numbers and metrics out of tons of players and point to why they should be great. You are paralyzing yourself with a narrow view data hunt. The truth is in the full body of work. K/BB does not make you a starter. May point toward MLB talent but doesn't make you a starter. Surely doesn't overshadow that he has years of work as a starter and no matter what the level they've been stagnant and mediocre. His BABIP and strand % has moved considerably in the right direction at the MLB level. Still putting up 4.5 as a starter. What do you prefer. 3.2 2IP reliever or 4.5 5 IP starter? I know my answer. I hear K/BB ad nauseam from Clacy on every single MiLB pitcher. You know how many of those guys never show up? It's a nice stat. It doesn't project much.

I'd estimate that that statement is true for nearly every pitcher in MLB history. Saying shorter outings lead to better stats is like saying that teams that outscore their opponents will usually win. And I'd estimate that nearly every mediocre SP in the MLB would be better out of the pen. Makes you wonder if a guy throwing 4.5 ERA ball or worse is more beneficial to his team in the pen or the rotation. It's the reason I believe the Brewers take age advanced arms in the draft. Because even if they don't land as a starter you probably get a very good cheap reliever.

I'd estimate that that statement is true for nearly every pitcher in MLB history. Saying shorter outings lead to better stats is like saying that teams that outscore their opponents will usually win. And I'd estimate that nearly every mediocre SP in the MLB would be better out of the pen. Makes you wonder if a guy throwing 4.5 ERA ball or worse is more beneficial to his team in the pen or the rotation. It's the reason I believe the Brewers take age advanced arms in the draft. Because even if they don't land as a starter you probably get a very good cheap reliever.

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA. I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start. Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs. I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year. Fall ball isn't to point out length of start. It's used to point out when the starts shrink in length results improve. K/9, BB9, K/BB and age related. Does that have a corollary to being a starter or being a major leaguer? Again you are looking for PROOF. There is no PROOF in small sample sizes but there are a lot of signals that all point in the same direction. Each one tips the scale in one direction. Evidence has built over time. Putting him ahead of Burnes is a big helping of what have you done for me lately. Peralta has the better MiLB numbers to fall back on and without a 2nd dominant pitch and a 3rd solid offering he's a reliever too.

Minor league K/BB rates correlate much better to future MLB performance than minor league ERA. I'd give preference to K9, BB9, K/BB, age relative to league, batted ball profile & scouting reports before considering a guy's ERA. I don't think anyone really pitches a ton of innings in fall ball. The highest average on Houser's team in 2015 averaged 4 1/3 IP per start. Last year Adrian had 46 PAs third time through the order. His 127 career IP is far too small a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions from, much less 46 PAs. I believe the team has him ahead of Burnes/Peralta in the 2020 rotation pecking order & deservedly so after last year. Fall ball isn't to point out length of start. It's used to point out when the starts shrink in length results improve. K/9, BB9, K/BB and age related. Does that have a corollary to being a starter or being a major leaguer? Again you are looking for PROOF. There is no PROOF in small sample sizes but there are a lot of signals that all point in the same direction. Each one tips the scale in one direction. Evidence has built over time. Putting him ahead of Burnes is a big helping of what have you done for me lately. Peralta has the better MiLB numbers to fall back on and without a 2nd dominant pitch and a 3rd solid offering he's a reliever too.

I look at reality. There's a big picture over time showing up from him in A+ to MLB and none of it points to starter. His pitch mix being a good FB 67% and 3 mediocre offerings doesn't point to starter. It's like smoke is billowing out of the guy and your response is, that doesn't have any meaning. I don't have PROOF, but I got a ton of evidence that you don't have. I look at reality. I don't ignore anything. It's a piece of the puzzle and its all weighted accordingly. There's nothing that says he's a starter in the MLB at this point other than MKE forcing him into the rotation when they had no other option. Let me tell you, its incredibly annoying to sit on a mountain of evidence and see someone spit on it, because "they're saying there's a chance." Sit on small odds. Chase the river. Be my guest.

I look at reality. There's a big picture over time showing up from him in A+ to MLB and none of it points to starter. His pitch mix being a good FB 67% and 3 mediocre offerings doesn't point to starter. It's like smoke is billowing out of the guy and your response is, that doesn't have any meaning. I don't have PROOF, but I got a ton of evidence that you don't have. I look at reality. I don't ignore anything. It's a piece of the puzzle and its all weighted accordingly. There's nothing that says he's a starter in the MLB at this point other than MKE forcing him into the rotation when they had no other option. Let me tell you, its incredibly annoying to sit on a mountain of evidence and see someone spit on it, because "they're saying there's a chance." Sit on small odds. Chase the river. Be my guest.

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk. This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close. Chacin was coming off a 35 start 192 IP 3.5 ERA season. Woodruff a 22 start 121.1 IP 3.62 ERA season. Saying what you said is a lot of hindsight and projection. I don't think 3 guys have a chance to be a 3.5 ERA 192 IP 35 start guy. Including Woodruff. You have 1 guy. Anderson Lindblom Lauer are hopefully a shade south of 4. They are not 3.5 guys. All you need from the last 4 are innings at 4 ERA. Avoid black holes.

Completely agreed, all points. Woodruff vs Chacin opening day starter is such a game changer. 3 of the other 4 have a ceiling of 2018 Chacin and solid floors, and then Burnes/Peralta have Cy Young ceiling albeit with massive risk. This outlook is so much better than 2019 at this point and it's really not close. Chacin was coming off a 35 start 192 IP 3.5 ERA season. Woodruff a 22 start 121.1 IP 3.62 ERA season. Saying what you said is a lot of hindsight and projection. I don't think 3 guys have a chance to be a 3.5 ERA 192 IP 35 start guy. Including Woodruff. You have 1 guy. Anderson Lindblom Lauer are hopefully a shade south of 4. They are not 3.5 guys. All you need from the last 4 are innings at 4 ERA. Avoid black holes.

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A. He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP. His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through. His number out of the pen were fantastic and lucky. His numbers out of the pen or in short starts in the minors were stronger than his ERA as a Starter. Further throwing evidence on 1/2/3 time through. In August he started 6 games and averaged a shade over 4 IP per start. He still allowed 4.5 ERA. He throws his FB 67% of the time and its his only positive grading pitch. How much evidence do you need? It's not 2019 sample size. It's a pattern. At every level. He's good. But he's not a starter. Which makes him a reliever. It's not his 10 ip from 2019 making him a reliever. It's his talent.

He was over a 4 ERA at every minors level above A. He was a 3.5 in fall ball. His 11 starts averaged 3.3 IP. His numbers last year were dramatically better 1st time through 2nd time through and dramatically worse 3rd time through. His number out of the pen were fantastic and lucky. His numbers out of the pen or in short starts in the minors were stronger than his ERA as a Starter. Further throwing evidence on 1/2/3 time through. In August he started 6 games and averaged a shade over 4 IP per start. He still allowed 4.5 ERA. He throws his FB 67% of the time and its his only positive grading pitch. How much evidence do you need? It's not 2019 sample size. It's a pattern. At every level. He's good. But he's not a starter. Which makes him a reliever. It's not his 10 ip from 2019 making him a reliever. It's his talent.