Jopal78

One thing to not overlook about Jesse Winker, he's hit well against the Brewers chief rival for the division as well as the other teams in the NL Central, and not just at GABP but their home stadiums too. Career vs. St. Louis: .351/.423/.600 with 11 homeruns in 208 PAs. Career vs. Pittsburgh: .333/.419/.590 with 10 homeruns in 180 PAs Career vs. Chicago: .238/.363/.400 Career OPS of 1.108 at Busch Stadium Careeer OPS of .938 at Great American Ball Park. Career OPS of .868 at Wrigley Field Career OPS of .808 at PNC Park.

I doubt there are too many players who sell themselves short financially because they're afraid of the possibility of injury. Next, given the competitive drive one has to have to even make the major leagues in the first place, there are even fewer who would sell themselves short financially because they're worried their on-field performance might not last. It's a nonsense proposal because the player would be a fool to defer that amount of money over that period of time. Second, I don't think a cost conscious team like the Brewers would ever really contemplate deferring 90 million dollars in salary.

Burnes would be an idiot to defer 90 million dollars in pay over 30 years, when he could get it all up front from some other team anyways.

Will be interesting to see about Kimbrel. He had that really good first half with the Cubs in '21 but was awful for them in '19 and '20. Then after being shipped to the Southside, he was bad for the Sox in '21 and didn't pitch well for the Dodgers in '22. Like McCutchen he's still a "name" in the major leagues, but what will the market bear for a 35 year old reliever with an up and down track record recently? I do hope the Brewers stay away though no matter the cost.

Why would the fact that someone is from Wisconsin make any bit of difference in that regard? 99% of players go wherever the most money is. Plus with their life style they can live anywhere they choose to begin with.

No other team would take the financial commitment owed to Yelich. The Brewers do not pay significant cash to move bad contracts. There's your answer. Nice click bait though ?

I'm curious, have you seen Wiemer play? I haven't, but from the stat sheet he's listed as 6'5" and 215lbs, that is way bigger than Sosa, (6'0", 165 lbs), and an all together different body type than Greg Vaughn (6'0", 195 lbs), and is lithe compared to Corey Hart 6'6", 240 lbs. If not from in person observation, are your comparisons based on the minor league stat sheets and photos? Because in his first 2000 PAs in the major leagues Sammy Sosa had an OPS of .704, and wasn't really a good hitter in the minors either. Greg Vaughn was a terrific hitter in the minor leagues .295/.391/.569 which is significantly better than Wiemer's .274/.367/.506 and Vaughn was almost exclusively a left fielder. With Corey Hart, the minor league slash is similar .296/.355/.498, but Hart was seemingly a better athlete having played 1B, 3B, LF, CF and later RF as a farm hand. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering what lead you to draw the conclusions you did.

I don't know, but I kind of doubt it. In terms of WAR (according to Baseball Reference) the Brewers have gotten 7.1 WAR of value from Adames. The Rays have gotten 6.6 WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen, but have each of those guys through 2026. Absent injuries the WAR from Rasmussen and Feyereisen in TB will be > than Adames' WAR with Milwaukee. It would be the same with the Dodgers, Adames is a fine player but two MLB ready top 100 prospects and a third player to boot likely ends up with significantly more WAR going to Milwaukee. If a team is desperate to plug a hole I could see it, but that isn't how the Dodgers do business. If they believe those two guys can play, they'll plug Pepiot and Vargas into their roster and simply sign someone to play SS.

I like this blue print as I do think the Brewers will make some major changes to last year's group. However, I don't think Milwaukee would get 2 major league ready top 100 prospects (Vargas and Pepiot) plus a third player for Willy Adames. If they could they should pull the trigger on that trade every single time (6 years of WAR from Vargas and Pepiot most likely > than 2 years of Adames). From the Dodgers perspective, it doesn't make them better in the short run or the long run especially when they could simply sign Correa and keep the prospects. Also Sixto Sanchez has not pitched at all in two years due to shoulder injuries. I don't think any team would take on a player with that kind of red flag.

There's always an excuse isn't there? Despite being "emptied out" prior to trading for Matt Olson, the Braves somehow still had likely '22 ROY Michael Harris (5.3 war), Vaughn Grissom (0.9 war in 41 games) and Spencer Strider (3.7 war). It's the "veteran for prospect" game. You don't know what you're getting until the minor leaguers actually "make it" in the majors. Sometimes a team will come out ahead but probably 50% of the time they don't work out for the team getting the prospects.

The Chapman/Olson era ran in Oakland from '18-21 during that time the Athletics won 316 games. By comparison the Brewers won 306 during that time frame. That A's group was a good team but couldn't reach the top of the mountain during their window. Their farm system isn't any different than Milwaukee's in that when you win a lot of games like the A's and Brewers you pick near the bottom of the round where the odds of hitting on a player are less. Also the trades of Olson and Chapman illustrate the dangers of trading quality major leaguers with remaining team control for prospects. They destroyed the major league roster and those prospects they received haven't lived up to their billing yet (Braves #2, #3, #10 and #15)(Toronto's #4, #8 and others). When the Brewers ultimately swap off Woodruff and Burnes they will be heading down a similar path.

When the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez in 2012 he was asked why he came to Milwaukee after years of being with rival Chicago, and his response (paraphrased) was.... we play baseball for money, Milwaukee had the most money on the table so here I am. Players go where the money is, if a team has the most money on a table for a particular player they will end up signing that player 90% of the time. Further, given the AAV which Cy Young caliber pitchers get, there are only five or so teams would be bidders at those prices. As for extensions, Musgrove and Castillo aren't really the same caliber of pitcher as Corbin Burnes, Corbin has much better career numbers than either of them already and is significantly better at 27 than either of those two were at that point in their careers. Unless Burnes is particularly scared of getting hurt, there's no reason for him to sign an extension with anyone and leave millions of potential extra dollars on the table as a free agent.

Well. that's just it.. the Cubs didn't trade away Bryant and Baez to land a #1 starter, they signed Jon Lester as a free agent. Similarly, DeGrom or others would only cost Baltimore money. I'd be all for the Brewers getting a starting pitching prospect who is regarded as amongst the top 5 prospects in the game (plus other players), but for the Orioles it would be sort of counter intuitive to trade someone like that for a pitcher with dwindling control. Also, simply because Baltimore has payroll space, doesn't make it more likely they could hypothetically come to an extension agreement with Burnes as premium players approaching the end of their arbitration years almost universally declare free agency,

Why would Baltimore want Corbin Burnes if it costs them Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg? With a negative run differential last year (-14), and being in a strong division, adding Burnes wouldn't put them over the top in '23, and Burnes is a free agent in 2 years. With dwindling team control, this prospective trade doesn't make sense for Baltimore; they'd be better off simply rolling with Grayson Rodriguez and Westburg for six years than Burnes for two. Moreover, Seth Johnson hasn't pitched above A-ball and just underwent Tommy John surgery, as a 2019 draftee he will need to be on a 40 man roster before he likely is even healthy again, let alone close to major league ready.

It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.

It was Doug Melvin who originally acquired Corey Knebel in '15, Brandon Woodruff in '14 and Devin Williams in '13, Hader and Houser in '15. In fact, Knebel and Houser already had major league experience before Stearns got to Milwaukee... so depending on your definition of "development" sure. Stearns was a capable GM, made some good moves could with some really good luck, and made some boneheaded moves. For every pitcher "developed" there was a hitting prospect who flamed out. So it goes.

I guess I'm not the only one: Leibling 10:32 Who will be the Brewers' most surprising non-tender? Darragh McDonald 10:32 I think Renfroe is a possibility. 10:35 He had a really good year, but $11MM for a guy who mostly provides power is a decent amount for a team that doesn't run huge payrolls. Train 10:44 How would you rank the possibilities of these Brewers trading these players ? Renfroe, Rowdy, Keston, Houser, Burnes, Woody. Darragh McDonald 10:44 I would guess in that order, but with Woody and Burnes flipped. https://www.jotcast.com/chat/brewers-offseason-chat-14231.html

Caratini is a free agent after ‘23

Not a bad idea to do a tear down, but there would be more than growing pains; that team doesn’t win 75 games. Walker Buehler is going to miss most if not all of ‘23 and is a free agent after ‘24.

Hiura and Houser make zero sense for Oakland. They are likely going to finish last in the AL West in '23 and neither of those players would change that, and neither one will still be under control when the next competitive Oakland team hits the field . That fact alone makes it unlikely they would take on any amount of salary to simply spin their wheels with those two. Second, we can argue about Hiura all day long; the facts are, Hiura doesn't hit left handed pitching and he doesn't play defense, so really he's a right handed DH. He's not going to play everyday in a division with Framber Valdez, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, amongst others. Don't forget while Puk may be "strictly a reliever" he was one of Oakland's late inning relievers, and went multiple innings in several of his appearances and is pre-arbitration eligible. As I specifically mentioned earlier if they were going to trade him why would they take on a veteran bench player like Hiura when they could simply add talent to their developing minor league system? Moreover, I really don't believe Oakland or any other team is going to trade for Hiura and Houser with the intention of then flipping him down the road for prospects. The acquiring team would bear all the risk of injury and underperformance, and have to pay them ever increasing amounts of money. It's not a sound strategy for improving in either the long run or the short run. Which is why it makes zero sense. What I forgot to mention earlier is I don't think the trade makes any sense for the Brewers either. Tony Kemp plays 2B and LF and is projected to make 3.9 million dollars in his final year of arbitration. Yet your hypothetical has Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich on the Brewers at 2B and LF respectively. Where exactly would Kemp play? I suppose you mean as a Utility infielder, but then he has two MLB innings at SS and has never played 3B. Finally to the Dodgers, unless Trevor Bauer's suspension gets overturned (doubtful) they have the flexibility to do whatever they want. David Price's contract is up ($32 million), Kershaw's contract is up ($17 million) as is Craig Kimbrel's ($16 million). I doubt they tender Bellinger a contract (projected 18 million), and exercise their club option on Justin Turner ($16 million). Correa, Bogaerts and Trea Turner are better players than Adames, and only cost them money to acquire not key prospects that allow the Dodgers to spend ridiculous amounts of money to fill holes in the first place.

Yep, and its apples and oranges. Google isn't proofing their work on free fan websites either. Pro baseball is a cut throat industry where a mistake in professional judgment can cost someone their career. I don't think you've ever worked in an industry where your judgment and expertise determines your worth, which is why it's okay you don't understand this. Using some fans' website when the website even admits they're often wrong, not meant to be predictive and importantly admit that MLB team's analytical engines are much larger and sophisticated is preposterous. Moreover, the website actually pimps having been mentioned in on sports/pop culture websites. Don't you think if they had any proof of someone in the business actually used their site, they would also pimp that too (even if it was just Scott the intern screwing around on his coffee break)?

I don't really care that they "should" have been a 91 win team, they weren't. Yes, I agree they played below the talent level and had some injuries, but there is no way to prevent that, and it could very well be the case again next year. Thus, the question is how do you improve the team without dismantling the starting pitching (because if you dismantle the starting pitching you may as well start over completely), and I agree its a narrow path with some tough choices. . I do think they are going to commit to some rookies in '23. For a couple of reasons. First, this group has mostly been together for a couple of seasons now and weren't very good as a contender; getting beaten badly in an upset in the Divisional series in '21 and missing the playoffs all together in '22. Secondly, Mitchell and Frelick are both former college player/first round picks who seemingly have nothing left to prove at AAA. Third, it's a team that always is going to be close to their payroll ceiling so saving money where they can and still competing is always the priority. I would suggest you look at the stat sheet again. Vazquez .274/.315/.399 in '22. Caratini was .199/.300/.342. Vazquez was the better of the two defenders by most metrics as well. As for Abreu he has been on the DL twice in his career and not since 2018, so I don't know why you would suggest he's suddenly not durable, you'd have been more credible suggesting his performance will tail off with age. Anyways, he is coming off a contract where his AAV was $16.6 million, and was a 4.2 WAR player last year (baseball reference). He's not going to take a pay cut, so if you think 18 million is too much, I'd love to hear your opinion on what comparable players you could get for less. With Suter it's simple. He's a lefty swingman with good career numbers., he can make spot starts, and pitch multiple innings. If he was non-tendered by Milwaukee he would have a new guarantee from another club by the end of the week and probably at 3 million per year or more. There's not really an inefficiency between his projected salary and the cost to replace it. As for the rookies, like I mentioned above, both Mitchell and Frelick are former college players and first round picks. Mitchell is already 24, had good numbers in AAA and held his own in limited at bats with Milwaukee. Frelick also hit at every level and is going to turn 23 next April. There's no reason to not give them both a shot in the major leagues in '23 especially when it would create "payroll flexibility". As for Benintendi, batting order is irrelevant. He's a good defender, gets on base better than most Brewers players. I don't see Milwaukee signing two marquee free agents but if they did I think Abreu and Benintendi would be tremendous additions. Yes, the whole reason for adding players like Abreu and perhaps Benintendi is to move away from having several all or nothing sluggers in the lineup (Adames, Renfroe, Tellez, '22 Brewers 2nd in NL in homers but 6th in runs scored) and to raise the overall talent level on the roster.

I get it, Trea Turner is going to be a free agent, but Adames wouldn’t be more than Plan D with LA at best. They’d be a better team by simply keeping Vargas to eventually replace Justin Turner, and fork over the money to sign Trea Turner, Carlos Correra or Xander Bogaerts. It only costs them money and luxury tax neither of which have been much of a deterrent to them recently. Further, Oakland isn’t at a place in the success cycle where Houser and Hiura make any sense for them. Oakland would be taking on salary to add two players who won’t move the needle for them in the AL West, and won’t be there when they put together their next winning club. If they want to move on from Puk and Kemp they may as well just flip them for minor leaguers and save the millions of dollars.

Ha. From the poster who proposes signing Mitch Haniger for 5 million, and getting Taylor Rogers to take a 50% pay cut to return to Milwaukee. If you truly believe this, then there’s no reason to discuss this topic with you further.

Read more carefully, it’s actually simple letting Renfroe walk (or trading him) allows them to use the money he’d otherwise make in obtaining a better player (the famed “payroll flexibility”) yet without creating a hole somewhere else on the roster. This is a byproduct of where they find themselves as a club: payroll at or near it’s limit and dead last amongst the teams trying for the playoffs in the NL. They’re not going to sign someone like Carlos Correra, they’re not going to trade a key piece like Burnes and/or Woodruff and realistically expect to get better in ‘23. Other than merely running it back again and hoping for better luck, how do they get better next year?