coolhandluke121

Into the 9th with a Perfect Game now. I will be ecstatic for him if he finishes the deal. Regardless, if he pulls it off I think history will categorize him more closely with Phil Humber than Roy Halladay. I will be thrilled for him and I hope he does it. Just hope to avoid a barrage of "I'm tired of Stearns apologists acting like he doesn't deserve criticism for his bad moves, like this one" posts afterwards.

This is just the type of random garbage you have to deal with in baseball. There's nothing systematically wrong with the pen; just a lot of guys struggling at the same time. Weather the storm.

Perfecto through 7. Kind of dreading the reaction here if he pulls it off...

Time for a "dlk9s eat crow thread"?

1 game NFL is no where near 1 game MLB. So no, not equivalent. Theres less than 24 games to go equivalent to 2 NFL games left. You know where you stand and what should be more important. 1st place in division? Or 4th place west coast team. 2game swing in standings at end of the result. Oh but its not important. The difference of we can win division convo vs the convo that we cant. Really bad analogy. The math and the situation don't line up at all. A better analogy would be your best linebacker needing to take a few snaps off in the 3rd quarter of game 15 with the division on the line when he's hardly taken a play off all game and is a little banged up and fatigued. Yeah, if he's perfectly fine, you want him to play every snap... but you can give him a few plays off on 3rd and long if his backup's best skill happens to be pass coverage (like Perez being a really good option against LHP). You'd be a fool not to give him a few of those plays off and keep him fresh for the rest of the game. Going from Yelich to Perez in 3 pa's against an LHP is not quite the same as going with Aaron's back-up in an entire game. It's a really silly comparison.

I’m always amazed at the number of fans that think these guys show up an hour before the game, slap on the uniform and go. It’s just not that way. These guys put a ton of time into their crafts. And 162 games in six months is a ton. Never understand that type of thinking. I figure the confusion comes from the fact that baseball doesn't have significant cardiovascular demands - as if losing your wind and getting sore knees from running around too much are the only sports activities that require periods of rest and recovery.

To each his own. I get much more enjoyment from an "overachieving" team (in quotation marks because it's time to start recognizing defense and analytics and smart management as talent the same way we recognize it in guys like Braun and Fielder) than an underachieving team with more big-name, blue-chip talent. And make no mistake; the 2011 run notwithstanding, the Braun/Melvin era was definitely marked by consistent underachievement considering how much talent they had accumulated before Melvin took over.

I used to get the impression that a lot of Brewers fans were the casual type who loved to go to the stadium in summer and see some dingers. Given how much more important football is in the state, it would make sense that the average sports fan in Wisconsin might not appreciate the subtle excellence of this squad compared to the 2011 team. It's like Bucks fans looking at box scores too much and overrating guys like Glenn, Sam, Redd, Jennings, Jabari, Henson, Villanueva, Mo, and even Ray - who was plenty good, but certainly not "best player on a contender" good as some fans made him out to be. Bucks fans don't seem to care that the 2004 team was better than most of the Ray/Glenn/Sam squads before Ford and KVH got hurt. So was the FTD team before Bogut got hurt. Those teams were built around better all-around play and less sensational scoring talent. Bottom line, I think the Braun/Fielder combo, with secondary sluggers like Hart and Weeks, means more the average fan than the Yelich/Cain combo with judicious use of platoons and versatile depth. Throw in Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf, as opposed to getting creative with your starters and the pen, and you can see why an average fan might think that 2011 team is better and this team is a fluke, even though certain imbalances and weaknesses (especially in terms of management) made the 2011 team just as vulnerable. It would be easy to argue that the 2011 team was more talented in a vacuum, but management is talent too.

It's pretty ridiculous to deny the physical toll playing professional baseball every day can have on a player.

We've had some extremely petulant fans this year. I think it's kind of an embarrassment. The bullpen complaints are absurd, for example. Their creative use of the starters and bullpen milked a lot of extra wins out of a team that should probably only be a few games over .500 by run differential, but people think they would do better and have a right to complain because it didn't work well enough to sustain the best record in the NL all year? It would be laughable if it weren't so annoying. It's the same as people whining about the offseason moves and all the outfielders. Chill and let someone who's infinitely more knowledgeable than you do their job. I'm okay with a lot of complaining if your suggestions routinely outperform the team's moves (I'm looking at you Bucks), but this is crazy. They might be the best-run organization in baseball considering how quickly they've turned a tanking small market team into this. And the work Yelich has been putting in is awesome and surely has taken a toll. Of course a 2-day break is called for. Good lord.

I'm going to kindly disagree with you there. Peralta had jumped both of those guys in the team's pecking order well before that first start against Colorado. And Woodruff or Burnes could both jump ahead of him just as fast, and I would say you shouldn't read too much into that either. You cite Peralta getting the call this year as evidence of what they think of him. By the same token, shouldn't everything that had to happen to the several of the team's vets before Peralta got the call be evidence of what they think of those vets? I think their moves this year made it very clear what they think of veterans with a decent track record of recent success, and even a few veterans without one (Guerra, Miley). They're not in a hurry to burn service time and live through the growing pains of young players while being a playoff contender, especially when they need to save roster spots for guys without options to preserve their depth.

Winning the division is pretty unlikely. The Cubs are the more talented team - if anything, they have underachieved this year, and they are still 4 games up with a much better run differential. I probably wouldn't bet on the Brewers with 10:1 odds. I'd be tempted at 15:1, but if it comes down to the Cubs playing a different wild card candidate, I will absolutely be hoping the Cubs win because the Brewers are still in very real danger of missing a wild card spot. It would be foolhardy to think the Brewers are completely over their issues just because they've been solid recently. It's also important to get the first wild card. It's not just about home field; the main issue is being able to rest the pitchers you want to use in the wild card game. Having a 3-4 game lead over LAD, STL, COL, etc in the last weekend would make a wild card victory more likely because those teams will have to use everyone to secure the other wild card. I think the Cubs beating the Cardinals and Diamondbacks later this month is likely to be a good thing for the Brewers at this point.

There were a lot of guys ahead of Peralta who got hurt. He also happened to be in Colorado for his AAA start on the same day the Brewers needed an emergency starter. He had a great start and they went with it, but I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he got more opportunities than Woodruff or Burnes. Right place, right time. They don't really seem to have an agenda and prefer to keep their depth and respond to changing circumstances. He could very well win a job in spring training and maybe even be near the top of the rotation, but I doubt that's what they're projecting now and I think it's more likely that his 2019 will be a bit like this one - some time in AAA, some starts for an injury replacement, a few more starts if a veteran struggles for several starts in a row. Bottom line, unless someone creates a lot of unexpected separation in spring training, they'll continue to err on the side of guys with a little more experience, fewer options, and no service time considerations. For example, Peralta certainly hasn't been more consistent or effective than Davies over the last 2 years, so they would have to have a really good reason to choose Peralta over Davies. If they weren't a playoff contender, they might be more committed to trading some vets and developing their youth, but you're probably projecting your own desires to see some fresh young faces more if you think they're planning to start Burnes and Peralta next year. That's not how they operate. They're not cavalier about benching veterans or compromising depth. Peralta and Burnes will have to be clearly better options before Davies and Anderson lose their spots.

The problem is the reason the Brewers have a so-called "logjam" is the same reason it will be so hard to clear. Namely, it's a lot of serviceable players without any clear standouts. Teams aren't giving up anything of value for guys like that, so the Brewers may as well keep them for depth - just like they did this year. They might make one or two big moves like Cain/Yelich if the price is right (I suggested an Arrieta deal for Keuchel in the 2019 rotation thread), but overall they'll probably have to focus on depth. I think people are projecting their own wishes when they assume they're going to get rid of Thames. If Moustakas stays, sure, but I doubt that happens. Beyond that, a dangerous LHB back-up 1B/RF is a good fit on the team and they're not going to jettison him unless they get something of value in return, which I doubt they will. You can scream he's not needed with Braun and Santana on the team until you're blue in the face, but this year showed us they don't give a darn about that argument. You can't rely on Braun as the primary back-up 1B, and in fact I think that experiment might be over completely. I think Santana burned his last option, but they can live with 6 OF/1B's. Arcia/Schoop/Shaw/Perez should be good enough for the other 3 infield spots. They don't have to have a bunch of Sogard/Saladino types again next year. If Santana doesn't get his spot back, maybe it's Broxton. When they keep 13 hitters, it's also Saladino or something equivalent. Santana and Broxton are arguably the most likely to be traded because they might actually be worth something (compared to Thames). They're both young and under cheap team control, and they're both kind of redundant (Santana and Braun, Cain and Broxton). Thames has been terrible lately, but he bounced back from a comparable slump last year at about this time and ended up being a productive hitter overall. I expect that again this year and probably next. Big-time slugging without a lot of other skills means you have to live with ups and downs, but it's still valuable in the end.

We learned a lot about how the team thinks this season, and we can apply that to next year's projections. 1. They value depth. A LOT. And they should. Guys with options will have to win roster spots, not just break even in camp. 2. They don't give a rat's butt if fans and media get the tidy depth charts they crave. They know the game isn't played on paper. 3. They bide their time and only go for clear, significant upgrades when the cost and the player is right. 4. Young guys aren't just gifted roles until they earn it. I don't really love this, but it's justified when you're in the playoff hunt. 5. Players will be given a leash proportional to their recent success. They don't just cut guys after 2 bad weeks. 6. That said, they do move on when the slump is prolonged and they have a better option (read: NOT Orf/Wilkerson). Don't be surprised if they go after Keuchel and at least drive up the price, losing him to a Darvish-level offer. I think the market will be a little better for free agents this year, but he might get an Arrieta-level deal and that would be manageable for the Brewers. Beyond that, they will look at reclamation type guys and just keep their depth. Rather than pick spots, I rank starters in terms of "longest leash based on track record, recent success, and pedigree": 1. Chacin 2. Anderson 3a. Davies (2 strong years before this one - hopefully yesterday was a sign of things to come) 3b. Burnes 3c. Nelson (TOTAL wild card) 6a. Peralta 6b. Guerra 6c. Woodruff 6d. next year's Miley/Gonzalez veteran gamble 10. Wilkerson (please god no) It's basically a fool's errand to try to differentiate them now, but the close calls go to guys with some record of success - especially if the other guy has an option and can be stowed away in AAA for on-call depth.

Baseball just happened. Cubs are good. Just keep at it and keep a level head.

So glad they saved Hader for this.

I wish they played Woodruff, but not because I think he'd be better than the alternative. I think he's going to continue to have growing pains and would be wildly inconsistent, but I'd like to see the Brewers work through those growing pains now rather than later because he could be a big asset when they peak in a few years. Same goes for Peralta, Burnes, Williams, and Barnes. I understand the comfort level with more veteran players, but in the end they haven't been that much better or more consistent. I think they could have stayed in the wild card hunt with Woodruff out there a little more. It would have been tough to bench Guerra before his recent slump though. Hopefully we'll see some piggy-backing with 8 starters now available.

That reminds me, I haven't heard any sarcastic jokes about the outfielders and 1b's lately. C Aguilar 1B Thames 2B Braun SS Shaw 3B Moustakas LF Choi CF Santana RF Arcia Get it? Because the Brewers are so dumb? HAHAHAHA!

He had better offers and turned them down, thinking he'd cash in like Hosmer eventually. $6m was surely not his best offer. It's not that simple. Players have to recalibrate what they're worth in their late 20's and accept more modest 4-year deals, but some of them got burned before they figured that out. Markets are very fickle and you'll still see an occasional Hosmer type deal, but for the most part guys like Moose are still going to get much better contracts than they signed last year. They just have to stop turning their nose up at them. He did reject the qualifying offer of nearly $20m so no, his market value was definitely not $6m and won't be this year either.

Of course it does. He's not a part of the team's long-term plans, they don't have to protect his arm, and veterans are often better adapted to more innings and more frequent outings.

Hader just had an outing as bad as Soria's, if not worse. This armchair quarterbacking is ridiculous. You have to give him rest. Guys have to execute. You have no idea who's going to execute and who's not. You need quality innings from guys other than JJ and Hader. If you don't rest JJ and Hader, they'll start struggling too. It happened last year when Hader, Swarzak, and Knebel were the only guys CC could trust. 9/18 - 9/22, Knebel pitches 4 times. Blows a save and gives up 3 runs in 3 innings in the last 2 of those outings - more runs than he gave up in all of August. 8/30 - 9/4, Hader pitches 4 times despite being a young rookie and having pitched on <2 days rest 3 times all year, gives up 3 runs in 1 inning in the last 2 of those outings 8/26 - 8/31, Swarzak pitches 4 times, gives up 2 runs in 1.2 innings in the last 2 of those outings All of those guys had e.r.a.'s under 2.5 for the Brewers last year. All of those stretches represent a slight but crucial uptick in their workload from what they were used to all year because the Brewers were in the thick of the wild card chase and CC couldn't trust anyone else. They used their best relievers a little too much and ended up losing several of those games anyway, and then they still had to use bad relievers in crucial situations because because those guys needed even more rest. You just compound all your problems when you overuse your relievers. Guys have to execute. Soria is a good reliever and they made the right call. It's baseball. There's no crying in baseball. It's impulsive and petulant to complain about not getting to see Hader pitch 3-4 times a week. Give it a rest.

Yes but can he secure the $15m and still get the $40m deal after next year? If he plays like this next year, I think so.

I’m not sure anyone is going to claim Granderson resembles his old self at all, but let’s take the numbers with a grain of salt. Granderson has nearly twice as many OF innings as Thames this year, and true, his UZR is twice as bad. But consider, the Crew is clearly doing what it can to protect Thames in the field by being selective in his use (and while I haven’t studied their defensive alignments, it wouldn’t shock me if Cain is shaded his direction a bit with a better defender in Yelich on the other side). In the end, I’m not sure I can reasonably say who is a worse defender at this point, but I’m reasonably sure of two things: Granderson isn’t great, and Thames is not suddenly the best OF defender he’s ever been at nearly 32 years old, as some of his unalloyed numbers seem to suggest. Neither is a great option in the field, and we should hope they don’t have to play meaningful defensive innings. EDIT: I composed this while others posted similar arguments. I did not intend to pile on. Great post. Truly superb. :-)

I would add that the Brewers make sure Thames gets most of his OF starts when they're playing in a small ballpark, and they put him in LF or RF depending on which one requires less range in each park. Do the Blue Jay's do that for Granderson? I doubt it. Also, Thames has elite CF defense next to him, compensating for his lack of range. I don't know everything that goes into the advanced stats, but I doubt it covers this. I'm guessing it's mostly about putouts per opportunity compared to league average, which doesn't account for Granderson's stats being hurt by flyballs that might make it out of Miller Park or be caught by Cain/Broxton and thus mitigate the damage to Thames' dWAR. This is probably a case where conventional wisdom should make you scrutinize the limitations of advanced stats and not the other way around. And Granderson's stats probably translate to roughly an .825 OPS at Miller Park.