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coolhandluke121

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Everything posted by coolhandluke121

  1. coolhandluke121
    Yeah, I'm very prone to getting out of hand over some cliched statements and this would be one of them. I already had a few water cooler discussions of, "the A's got too cute last night" with some people that don't even do critical thinking and consider the fact that any mediocre starting pitcher is also liable to give up that same offensive output against the Yankees. As long as you have data to support what you're trying, it should be encouraged. Let's take a moment to appreciate how lucky we are to be fans of a team that has that type of culture ingrained at this point. It's one of the better fan experiences in all of sports IMO. I'll take being a fan of one of the smartest teams over one of the richest teams every time. Another big example that really ticked me off was starting Suppan instead of Manny Parra against Philly's brutal LHB lineup - not that they had a chance to beat the Phillies either way.
  2. coolhandluke121
    Miley is a terrible matchup for the Rockies' lineup. They have solid long relief options like Guerra and Burnes. It's fine. The only things I'm worried about are keeping two veteran LHP starters as relievers and using Chacin on 3 days rest. I give Chacin the benefit of the doubt and you're kind of stuck there because you want to use him before you go to Coors, but keeping Gio, Miley, and a 14th hitter is a big gamble.
  3. coolhandluke121
    I was very close. Basically had Jennings/Cedeno/Barnes instead of Gio/Miley/Broxton. I guess they figured they could go with 14 hitters because Gio and Miley can give you a few innings at a time, unlike Jennings and Cedeno... but how often are you going to want to use an LHP against more than 2-3 consecutive batters anyway? I'm not thrilled with 11 pitchers, even with all the off days. I think it would be worth it to use more pitchers each game and have Jennings or Cedeno for guys like Blackmon, CarGo, and Dahl. ETA: I swear I didn't read the game thread until now and didn't know Woodruff was announced this morning!
  4. coolhandluke121
    Okay, final guess before it's released. It's all about LH/RH matchups. Aguilar Schoop/Perez Arcia Shaw/Moustakas Yelich/Braun Cain Santana/Granderson Pina/Kratz Peralta/Chacin/Guerra/Burnes/Woodruff (starters/long) Hader/Jeffress/Knebel/Soria/Cedeno/Jennings/Barnes
  5. coolhandluke121
    As long as it's not Shaun Marcum or Jeff Suppan throwing the first pitch, I'm good.
  6. coolhandluke121
    He could take the rest of the lineup after the 1st inning and stop at Blackmon. You'd be getting as many innings out of him as you typically do from any LHP reliever. I agree that his roster spot is far from assured though, and I would probably vote against it.
  7. coolhandluke121
    This is probably the winner. I'd guess you lock in Peralta for innings 1-4 in game 3. Hard to deny that his fastball-heavy repertoire would be best for a Coors Field game. Absolutely. Fastballs with movement are perfect for Coors. No way they should use him today. Then you might have to use guys who aren't suited to Coors on Sunday and Monday. That would be foolish. I'd start Burnes today. Use Miley, Jennings, and Cedeno against LHB's if the right situation arises. That's if Miley is even on the roster. I won't scream bloody murder if Chase or Davies pitches a few innings, but it's not my preference to use a roster spot on either of them.
  8. coolhandluke121
    I just can't see it with Broxton. You have Yelich and Cain to play CF, and it's not like Cain is going to sit. Braun is a respectable LF, and Santana has been more than adequate as a RF this year. RF at Miller is small enough to play Thames there. Perez is good outfielder in either corner. I don't see a few innings of elite defense, in RF of all places, and pinch-running being worth the trouble of keeping Broxton. I'd rather keep lots of relievers. ETA: I'm an idiot. Been touting Granderson for a while and completely forgot him.
  9. coolhandluke121
    I guess it's not like Williams or Barnes has seized the day for that RHP bullpen depth. Still though, it's Jordan Lyles. I doubt we hear from him again this year.
  10. coolhandluke121
    Yeah, that's what I was getting at in my too-long post. Thanks for summarizing. I take the first 3 pretty easily because I think they're better match-ups for the Rockies, especially in the road games. I could see one of Davies or Anderson instead of the last reliever (Jennings?), but it might be better to keep the guys who are used to short stints on consecutive days.
  11. coolhandluke121
    Dang. Looked through several pages and was starting to think I'd get a chance to be the first one on this train, but you beat me to it. Fastballs do play better at Coors, especially fastballs with movement. Honestly I don't see how you include both Gio and Miley, as much as I hate to say it. They aren't suited to Coors and the Rockies' LHB's are kind of trash. You need RHP starters and long relievers. You should keep LHP's who actually have experience playing consecutive games and facing just 2-3 batters at a time because CarGo and Blackmon are still somewhat dangerous. Schoop is a reverse splits guy and he's not as good as Santana or Thames IMO. I'm sure he'll make the roster but it just seems like compounding your mistakes at this point. Aguilar Perez Arcia Shaw Moustakas Yelich Cain Braun Santana Pina Kratz --- Chacin Peralta (perfect for Coors) Guerra Hader Jeffress Knebel Soria Burnes Woodruff (another Coors pseudo-starter) Miley --- Cedeno or Jennings? Barnes or Williams? Schoop or another pitcher? Thames or Broxton? I'd lean towards the dangerous LHB bench bat for their good RHP relievers (Thames), another pitcher* (but I know they'll take Schoop), Barnes (coin flip with Williams), and Cedeno. *For the extra pitcher, I guess I'd probably take Jennings over Gio or Chase because of short-term relief experience, but that's close to a coin flip too. Whatever they do, it will end up being 1000000x smarter than my ideas anyway, so I don't know why I even bother.
  12. coolhandluke121
    FWIW (and according to the numbers I put together) The NL Central was 92-73 vs. NL West. MIL: 23-10 STL: 20-14 CHC:19-14 PIT: 12-21 CIN: 18-14 Interesting. Obviously overall record has more statistical significance though, and the NL Central had a much easier schedule than the NL West. Besides, I was only saying that the NL West is much better than the AL Central, and therefore the AL West is even more impressive because they played the NL West.
  13. coolhandluke121
    I would hope those who vote for this award remember this. I think CC should win it, but actually the best division in baseball was the AL West Wins by Division AL West 436 NL Central 428 AL East 418 NL West 404 NL East 392 AL Central 353 AL- 1207 Wins NL- 1224 Wins If they really want to determine which league gets homefield advantage for the playoffs (other than best overall record), they could give it to the league with most interleague wins (NL this year) AL West was even better than you think. If I'm not mistaken, they played all their interleague games against the NL West, which was pretty solid (and would have been better if they didn't have to face the AL West so much). NL Central teams played all their interleague games against the pathetic AL Central. The real issue is that it shouldn't be all about narrative. Tell me what the Braves manager did that the average manager wouldn't do if you want to give him the credit. Otherwise give the credit to the players and/or the front office. With Counsell, it's so easy to see what he did with shifts and the bullpen lineups and the rotation to help the Brewers win ~10 extra games, and maybe even more.
  14. coolhandluke121
    Counsell's patience and willingness to stick to the right strategy where others might have deviated on short-term impulse set him apart. He was already good last year and improved this year. Calling out certain mistakes - many of which were just guessing wrong, which all managers are going to do 100's of times a year - was kind of petulant all year. I think he deserves it. Also, I'm so sick of every manager/coach of the year pick being about "exceeding expectations". That's so dumb. Uh, maybe they exceeded expectations because the expectations were wrong and it was the players who exceeded them, not the manager or coach? But no, it can't possibly be that we were wrong about how good this team is, so the manager/coach must have flipped the genius switch and made them win lots more games! To automatically give the manager/coach credit without being able to cite lots of obvious, tangible ways he made the team better (like Counsell's use of platoons and the bullpen, navigating logjams, giving guys a fair amount of time but not too long to break out of a slump before benching them, and playing guys out of position) is as bad as giving pitchers the Cy Young for W-L record.
  15. coolhandluke121
    but the 1 x 4 guy did apply a couple tags, so there is that... Not tags, TAGS. It has to be in all caps to convey the significance.
  16. coolhandluke121
    Um, Rizzo with a guy on and Hader at 31 pitches? Crap.
  17. coolhandluke121
    Takes away the SF for Jesus. Terrible call there whoever made it Yep. If you have so little faith in him that you think you have to steal 2nd there, then by that logic you may as well attempt the double steal.
  18. coolhandluke121
    Wow, that was an obnoxious call.
  19. coolhandluke121
    I teach until 3:10 and have office hours until 3:40. I will check the score during office hours and, if there's no students here at 3:40, walk a few blocks north to Kettle Of Fish, a somewhat famous Wisconsin bar in NYC, to watch the ending.
  20. coolhandluke121
    Not sure I like that. Now there's no chance he has 4 days rest for game 1 or 2 of a potential series, not to mention the obvious fact that he won't be able to pitch tomorrow if necessary either. It's really hard to settle on a right answer though. You want to save guys for tomorrow but you don't need to if you win today. I kind of like the uncertainty and tension of this game within a game.
  21. coolhandluke121
    I would feel fairly safe with Chase if I wasn't worried about him being rusty. His flyball repertoire should play well with the rangy Brewers outfield in a big ballpark with unfavorable winds. I know he gives up too many home runs, but he keeps you in ball games and can have great numbers when flyballs are staying in the park. I mentioned this in another thread, but we know that a big HR hitter with a bad OBP is not a good hitter; shouldn't it logically follow that a pitcher who gives up a lot of HR's with a low WHIP is not a bad pitcher? I'd be nervous with Peralta. You can't be walking dudes so much, especially patient, disciplined hitters like the Cubs. I'd just save him for tomorrow or Thursday to be honest. I'd be comfortable saving Chacin as well. You have to start Arcia with Chacin, but you can have less infield defense with the flyball pitcher starter. Although I'm not even sure Schoop is that much better than Arcia on offense anymore. I mean, what is wrong with him, seriously? He's worse than 2011 McGehee. I guess I'd be fine with starting Hernan and Arcia and letting Schoop PH once without coming into the game. The Cubs will have a ton of LHP relievers available. They hardly used any LHP's against the Cardinals. Duensing, Wilson, Rosario, De La Rosa, and Garcia are all available. Though not all of them are very effective, that's something to watch because the Brewers will probably have a lot of LHB PH's due to starting RHB's against Quintana.
  22. coolhandluke121
    Under-the-radar issue: the Cubs saved a ton of LHP's in their pen because you just don't use a lot of LHP relievers against the Cardinals. They're not all good pitchers, but the Brewers have struggled against even the mediocre LHP's this year. Wilson, Duensing, Rosario, De La Rosa, and Garcia are all fully rested and ready to go. Quintana is starting. Thank goodness the Brewers can alternate LHB's and RHB's.
  23. coolhandluke121
    Life is short. Gotta live for the moment. I'm not the one who might be getting some expensive jewelry or a big bonus; it's the ride that matters, not the end result. I'm just trying to fill as many days as possible with as much fun as possible before I retire to the Field of Dreams. The Brewers have already delivered more fun than I could ever have reasonably asked for.
  24. coolhandluke121
    I think Arcia always starts with Chacin because he induces so many ground balls. Schoop or Hernan at 2B? Hernan has been better this year. Shaw or Moustakas at 3B? Too close to call but I think they'll go with the guy that is (probably) a long-term Brewer. Hernan is better against LHP's than either of them to be honest. Probably a little better on defense too, and certainly a lot better on the basepaths. We should start a game thread tonight. It's less than 18 hours away.
  25. coolhandluke121
    I was glued to the t.v.! Could hardly stand the suspense. By the way, did the Brewers win? I sure hope so...
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