coolhandluke121

Hm. Lineup changes don't make all that much difference, but I thought it was pretty well-established that #3 should not be your best hitter, especially if that hitter has a great OBP (#1 is where that's most important) and isn't really a slugger anyway. Combine that with Cain's speed, and I see no reason he should not be leading off.

I don't think there's any way a team gives up a major asset for Parker and gives him his next contract. He's just an empty stats scorer even without the injury risk, let alone with two ACL tears. The Bucks can certainly trade their pick any time they want if they acquire a first-rounder this year in return, e.g. trading up as was suggested here. The best way to understand the rule is to know that a trade is not allowed if it could theoretically leave them without a first-rounder (theirs or anyone else's) in two consecutive future drafts. I don't see them being able to trade up into the top-5, and I doubt they want to take a huge step backwards by trading Khris. I could see them coming up with a package involving Bledsoe+ to the Cavs or Knicks for 8/9, or Bledsoe to LAC for one of their late lotto picks. Jabari *might* fetch a pick in the teens, but is more likely to be disappointed in the low-ball offers he gets, eventually signing one that the Bucks will match or working out a sign-and-trade for a serviceable vet or two. His attitude will be a big question mark when he gets that reality check. I really like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Mikal Bridges to improve the athleticism and perimeter defense if the Bucks do manage to move up a few slots. I don't like the options in the late teens as much and don't think they can afford to trade enough good players to get a top pick who might not help for a few years anyway.

I agree with you as I also favor moves that increase the likelihood that the Brewers field a good team for several years, but I would add that even with maximizing the number of playoff appearances there are obviously still no guarantees. I think the Washington Nationals of the past 6-7 seasons illustrate just how difficult it can be for a well assembled team to win a championship even given a longer window to be competitive. The Nationals have won 95 or more games in four of the past six seasons, but yet they have never even reached the NLCS. Imagine how frustrating it would be to have that amount of talent for a stretch of several years and continually fail to advance beyond of the Divisional Series. I am not saying the Nationals necessarily did anything wrong (well maybe aside from shutting down Strasburg in 2012), but I would guess that, barring a World Series appearance this season, many of their fans will consider the 2010's to have been somewhat of a disappointment. Yeah, there's no guarantee either way. But personally I'd much rather be consistently into the team and liking their chances of making the playoffs every year than risk what we had in the first decade of Mark A's ownership. I felt they decimated their talent pipeline and still weren't championship favorites, and they probably should have made the playoffs several more times. I mean, they still could have made the playoffs without Greinke, and imagine have Odorizzi, Cain, and Escobar for several years. Imagine having Brantley, too. And who knows, maybe they could have stolen a title along the way despite not being as good as the 2011 team on paper. It was usually pretty disappointing being a Brewer fan because you were often not even confident they'd win 85 games despite having Braun, Prince, Weeks, Hart, and Yo.

Gomez and Segura looked every bit as bad as Arcia for a while there, but they had the hand-eye coordination, reflexes, bat speed, and decent gap power to turn it around. I'm giving it another 1.5 years before I think about moving on. If they can find a good stopgap in that time, fine, but I still think he's going to be a good player. I remember when Lucroy was arguably the weak link in the 2011 lineup, too. It's growing pains IMO.

Is it possible people thought of this before but there was an unspoken agreement not to open that can of worms? Could lead to some weird games of chicken with regard to submitting lineups and stuff, and would eventually require some new rules to prevent games from slowing down even more.

I believe you can hit the point of diminishing returns when you make too many win-now moves. That basically means you're not getting enough of a bump in your chances of winning a title to justify the long-term costs. Even a clearly superior team can lose in the playoffs because they're so short compared to the regular season. I prefer to try to maximize the number of playoff appearances, as opposed to putting all your eggs in one basket. Just don't see the price on Realmuto being low enough to balance that loss against the improvement in the team. I wouldn't complain much if they did pull a deal and I would sit back and try to enjoy it, but I'm leaning against it in a big way.

Nothing really wrong with it per se, but I don't think there's enough evidence to bet on the kind of outcomes you're suggesting. You act as though Aguilar has disproved everyone who ever doubted him. A couple great months with an unsustainable BABIP is insufficient to win over everyone considering his prior performance. I do think recent performance should be weighed a little more heavily, but you can't just dismiss 10 years of utter mediocrity so soon. Also, this is what decent 1B's should be doing. There are guys like Lind, Duda, and Reynolds who did this all season long on multiple occasions and still had trouble finding work this year. If you could give me more specific, sustainable reasons why it might continue, I would be easier to persuade. For example, JJ's split change is a good, concrete explanation of why he's pitching so well despite such extensive struggles last year. Just saying Aguilar must be better now than he was before isn't as convincing. I'd be interested in what a great hitting coach would say about his approach right now, for example.

Probably nothing. Experience with the staff might count for a little. Bandy probably isn't quite this bad and he might just as easily have a couple good weeks as Bethancourt. He was gangbusters to start last year, if you recall. Lots of teams probably want a better back-up catcher though. I'm saving my anger for if/when they make some kind of impulsive win-now trade, and I'm glad to say I might be waiting a long time.

Call me crazy but I don't really expect the 3rd or 4th option at catcher (Bandy), the 10th reliever (Drake), or the 7th starter (Suter) to be anything but a bad player on an average team, let alone a small market team that started a complete rebuilding overhaul just a few short years ago.

Nope. Not sure where you'd look something like that up. I think he has the tools to remain a productive hitter, but he appears committed to being a slugger. I wonder if ever decides to push for a trade to an AL team? Playing in the field has gone from questionable to disastrous for his health in a short time.

Good post. That said there were a couple times I was overly adamant about Aguilar. Just couldn't understand how a guy who was so mediocre for so long was expected to be much good. Even last year, which was his coming out party of sorts, was mediocre compared to other 1b's. Obviously I'm happy to be wrong so far but I'd still bet on him regressing quite a bit considering where his BABIP sits now. But yeah, opinions and all. It's all good. Keep it up Jesus!

He does look good at the plate. That's hard to quantify and it's dangerous to rely on the eye test over small samples, but it counts for something. I'd feel a lot better if there was some explanation for why he was so pedestrian for so long and how he has fixed the issue. For example, Jeffress was terrible last year, but seems to have developed a wicked split change in a short time, which gives me more confidence in his sustained success. ETA: Whatever mechanics are behind his increased medium contact rate would be interesting, though I'm not sure that's statistically significant at this point.

I disagree. Most of the available evidence did not support the notion that Aguilar or Jeffress would be good this year. It's okay to have a strong opinion about what the evidence supports. Of course it's baseball and we all know things can happen. On that note, you should probably take your own advice and not have such a strong opinion about Aguilar and Jeffress proving me wrong. Aguilar had a sub-.800 OPS with favorable platoon appearances in non-Colorado ballparks last year, so his signs of improvement were overstated here. Sometimes a player bucks the evidence. The longer this continues, the more likely it is that it will continue. You can't just write off all the struggles JJ had last year or the mediocrity Jesus showed for 10 years because they're playing well now though. That said, I'm obviously not a scout and neither is anyone else here, at least that I'm aware of. We all have day jobs; I don't think everyone should have to preface every opinion here with that disclaimer. Management is with these guys all the time in spring training and knows 50x more than any of us about how they look and what kind of work they're putting in, and we can all be thankful they're as good at their jobs as they are. I didn't have much confidence in Aguilar or JJ coming into the season but don't worry about me quitting my day job or anything. ETA: It's weird that you chose to quote a post about wanting Santana in the 3-hole instead of Aguilar to make your point, considering Santana has been the better hitter nearly every single professional year either one of them has played except the first 2 months of this one.

Did you see this: http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519/olney-hitters-who-cant-beat-the-heat-getting-left-behind Braun is hitting .151 against 96+ mph fastballs since 2016. It's possible he's starting his swing a split-second sooner to keep up, and that's why he's having more trouble laying off bad pitches. Usually this is manifested in k% and bb% both going in the wrong direction, but Braun has incredible hand-eye coordination for making contact and appeared to acquire more patience (and less overconfidence) as he aged, mitigating the damage in 2016 and 2017. This looks like the year it's all coming unraveled though. Incidentally, Cain's slight uptick in bb% and decrease in k% last year, combined with his incredible sb/cs ratio and sustained elite speed in the outfield, were probably big factors in the Brewers deciding to take a chance on him despite all the evidence that a contract like that for a 32-year-old is almost always a bad investment. The guy is somehow still in the middle of his physical prime, and the Brewers are looking like geniuses for signing him when hardly a single free agent is paying off for any other team.

What do you mean? He's a decent pitcher. There's no controversy about him starting when he's healthy.

By that logic, Braun should have 87 home runs by now.

I'll take the bait. He's been better than I expected and I'm glad for that. That doesn't make him nearly as good as you seem to be suggesting and it doesn't mean he's going to continue to being productive going forward. His BABIP is still, astoundingly, over .380. The last 4 Brewer regulars to finish over .355 are Santana, Villar, Gerardo Parra, and Phony Plush. Before that, it was Braun's rookie year. That's right - even Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and Ramirez rarely manage much over .330. There's nothing about Aguilar's approach or hard contact rates that suggests this is even remotely sustainable, which means he is probably about 40-50 points over the AVG he will likely have going forward. His SLG will probably suffer even more regression. Everybody is happy he's doing well, but let's not abandon the lessons learned from Villar's career year just because of momentary emotions after a big game. The longer this continues, the more reasonable it becomes to conclude that he's a late bloomer, but he still was a below average 1B in over 4,000 MiLB pa's, so it will take more than 2 good part-time seasons in his prime to turn me into a believer. He has established himself as a much better RHB 1B option than Braun, but that's not really hard to do and I think I made it perfectly clear that I would rather get rid of Braun than him if it were an option so it's not like being better than Braun proves me wrong there. I had some hopes for Braun at 1B but I'm glad they kept Jesus.

I've been wanting that all year. When your lineup is that top-heavy, having guys on base for the 1-2 hitters in later innings is more important than having an 8 hitter who might be able to drive in the 6-7 guys, who aren't on base that often anyway. Perfect roster composition for hitting the pitcher 8th.

I actually like it. Santana is probably going to be a better hitter than Aguilar by the time the year is out, and could be much better. He looks like he's out of his slump, and Aguilar's ridiculous streak of good luck is probably over. Besides, the 3-hole doesn't have to be your best hitter. That should be 1-2-4. And Santana has much better speed than Aguilar, which isn't saying much, so he's a better threat to get on base and score runs with the 4/5 hitters behind him. Cain Yelich Santana Shaw Aguilar/Thames Is looking like the dangerous top 5 we all hoped for at the start of the year.

I'm pretty optimistic about Cain. There was an article comparing him to 10 very similar cf's (Cameron, Victorino, etc) and most of them aged very well. He also played a career high # of games last year and showed no signs of having lost any athleticism since his theoretical prime. Yeah, there's a decent chance there's a guy like that or two on the Brewers every year, but they seem to be avoiding it for the most part and I love it. Used to be nearly 1/3 of the team was like that (Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, Gallardo, Wolf, Marcum, Lohse, Garza, Suppan, Hoffman, probably missing a few).

I agree. Just seems so much more likely that a guy in his prime like Aguilar or Choi will have a career year than it is that Braun will turn back the clock. It's such a drag seeing him in the 3 hole and not knowing if he's going to be able to play even if he's not on the DL. Really looking forward to the end of the whole era of counting on washed-up players when younger guys really deserve that opportunity.

That's not the only reason at all. It's because his BABIP has been ridiculously high and because he's never been a very talented hitter. Now that Thames is hurt and he's been facing RHP's a lot more, his numbers are on an inevitable decline and will probably continue to sink until they level off around ~.800 if we're lucky.

Yeah, I'm the biggest "Aguilar regression" guy here and I check his BABIP at least once a week. He's been making a fool out of me this year and I'm trying to figure it out. And I understand that Choi is somewhat of an unknown, but he certainly projects to have translatable hitting skills and he's in the minors not because he can't hit, but because he's nothing special compared to other 1B. Unfortunately, neither is Braun, and Choi's LHB would make more sense on the team with Thames hurt. Phillips I have an irrational love for but I admit he's probably a Kirk Nieuwenhuis type. That said, you probably care more about defense in a back-up OF, and at least he and Choi and Aguilar are probably healthy so you're not playing with a 24.5 man roster. The Brewers can't afford to give the Cards or Cubs that kind of handicap.

I don't disagree that he'll still have some good stretches, but to me that's part of the problem. If he just played like this all year, they could DFA him and play a better player regularly. But his occasional good stretches just keep toying with our emotions and when it's all said and done, he'll probably average out to a subpar bat at 1B/corner OF, just as you'd predict based on his age and injury history. Then you will be stuck wondering what could have been if they had just given all those pa's to a "career year" candidate in his healthy prime, like Aguilar or Choi. Just look at how his one good stretch last summer had people saying he's still the best hitter on the team "by far". Basically it would be a repeat of his fluke bounce-back in 2016 on a smaller scale, and played on repeat. I want no part of that roller-coaster.

If the alternative is the indignity of being DFA'ed, he might give a few million back. I'm more concerned with using a roster spot on a first-place small market team with no top-40 players at this point. Can't afford to waste a precious spot. There are 5 obvious guys who are a much better use of a roster spot at this point, but you can also make a strong case that Choi, Phillips, and Perez are priorities over Braun, for various reasons, even when one of those 5 is hurt. ETA: Braun did look like a guy who sees the writing on the wall in that video where he talked about being willing to play 1B or 2B. Watch it again and look at his sagging eyes and his forced smile, where he normally has a confident, stoic poker face. The Brewers' moves in the off-season said a lot about what they think of his long-term future with the team IMO, and I think he sees it. He looks like a defeated old man.