coolhandluke121
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Everything posted by coolhandluke121
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Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones. 110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now.
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And the prospects? Or the fact that Braun is only more useful at positions where they wouldn't really miss him anyway? It would be silly to pass on an extraordinarily rare, and frankly almost miraculous, opportunity to trade him to a team he'd waive his no-trade clause for and get worthwhile prospects in return, all while resolving the huge dilemma of what to do with Santana and Aguilar, and without suffering much of a downgrade at any position except 1b against LHP's - assuming Braun can even handle 1b, stay reasonably healthy, and avoid the kind of precipitous decline that's so common for players his age in the first place.
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I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare. I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months.
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Don't think of it as trading Braun for Kemp. Think of it as trading Braun for prospects while investing about $5m to get $15m back in 2 years. That should more than pay for the ink you use to sign Kemp's waiver.
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Domingo Santana - round 2
coolhandluke121 replied to KeithStone53151's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree. I wouldn't do it, but it's not terrible. -
Nothing wrong with that. I still think the future is the priority for them, as it should be. I won't be too mad if they struggle a bit and have some regression. They can trade the guys approaching 30 or beyond for more prospects and continue to stockpile for the future. They're not touching the Cubs or Dodgers anyway. I think the Cubs could win 110+ this year. A lot of things went wrong for them last year and they were still a top-7 team in MLB. The wild card is in reach and I hope they get one, but it's a win-win either way.
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But you had Phillips in RF against LHP's and Braun in RF against RHP's, with Santana and Thames both traded. Read your original post again.
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I don't think they're operating that way, nor should they. Just make smart moves for now and/or for the future when you get a chance. Depending on the prospects, and they should get at least one worthwhile one, this would be a good move. And it doesn't even hurt the Brewers that much now anyway. They're good enough to compete without Braun, especially if they sign Cobb and forfeit just a 4th-round pick.
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I could be sold on Cobb if it's roughly an extra year and $2m/per more than Chatwood. He should be solid.
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I think you have some stuff backwards here? If they trade Thames, it's only because they think Braun can handle most of the starts at 1b against LHP's and RHP's. Phillips should start against RHP's if Santana is gone. Perez can start in RF against LHP's most of the time. No reason to bat Phillips against LHP's. I think it's likely that Thames and Braun roughly split starts at 1b if everyone is healthy, but I could easily see Braun getting 100+ starts there if he's healthy and effective. Either way, having one of them on the bench to pinch-hit and play a few innings is going to be valuable and I don't see either of them getting much time in the outfield unless someone gets hurt. Perez isn't good, but for the sake of roster construction they're better off with him as the reserve outfield against LHP's.
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I agree. It's clever in theory but there are two main reasons I would hate to see it. One is obviously team need and fit, as you said. Assuming they trade Santana, they could use an LHB outfielder who can play great defense and be a decent base-runner, fitting the team's identity. Braun is a bigger asset at 1b than in RF if he can handle the position. The second one is not so obvious, but I don't like wasting a guy's physical prime in the minors at all if he's ready to graduate. I see no need to worry about team control except for precocious prospects. Phillips is not the caliber of prospect that you really need to keep in arbitration until he's 30. Get him acclimated so his experience peak can overlap his physical peak for a few years. That's especially true with all the PED testing now, because you need to make sure you take advantage of a guy's best years and that means younger than it meant 10-15 years ago.
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They would free up a lot of payroll flexibility in a year in which they need to, clear up a logjam in the outfield by waiving Kemp, and get at least one worthwhile prospect from LAD. And the Dodgers are scrimping on payroll this year to avoid the luxury tax, which trading Kemp for Braun does for them if I'm not mistaken (pretty sure they're only a few million over).
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Depends on the prospects obviously, but it would be nice to keep Santana (assuming the offers are so-so) and not have to worry about Braun's transition to 1b. Obviously the Dodgers have incentives to get under the tax and replace Kemp with Braun. They need every advantage they can get to compete for titles more than they need prospects. For those people saying "it's obviously not going to happen", you're looking at Braun being extremely likely to be traded and Kemp being very difficult to trade in isolation, rather than realizing that so many of the variables that make them individually untradeable cancel out if they're traded for each other + prospects. If Braun is willing to do it, it could happen and would make sense for both teams. We know LAD was his favorite choice all along if he were to be traded, and he's on record saying so. I still believe he wants to stay, but the chance to stay in the outfield and get a title could be a factor. Personally, I would absolutely love to move on from him. I like the new strategy of defense, patience at the plate, reclamation projects, bargains, and youth, and this fits that perfectly. I would love it if this happens and the Brewers get enough prospects to make it worthwhile.
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I agree about the 13 pitchers. You can do that when you have this much versatility in the lineup. The early-season schedule is a valid point though. Checking it now... Yeah, the thing with 4 starters and 8 relievers is not happening. 29 games in 31 days from 4/2 through 5/2. 13 pitchers is the way to go IMO.
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Unless something drastic happens, I don’t see how Phillips starts the year In the majors. Even with that, Aguilars spot is in Jeopardy with Brain possibly being the 1B RHB making Aguilar redundant. Add the possibility of signing Walker to increase the roster crunch and 1B capable players, I hope at least a prospect can be Gotten in return for Aguilar Define "drastic"? I understand that Phillips will be in AAA if they don't trade an outfielder. However, I'm pretty confident they're trying very hard to get a fair deal for Santana, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if they succeed. I wouldn't call it drastic. What I'm saying is that Phillips will get the most starts in RF if Santana is traded, meaning Braun will have to get many of his starts at 1b and there's still no room for Aguilar even after trading an outfielder. This was in response to a post that had Thames, Aguilar, Braun, Santana, Yelich, and Cain at 1b/OF. It's not the fact that Phillips isn't in there that I find unbelievable, it's that Aguilar is.
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Are we undervaluing Woodruff??
coolhandluke121 replied to Fear The Chorizo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Check his game logs to make sure you know all the context. This guy held his own in some beastly tough situations. 8 games total, including 6 in hitter-friendly Milwaukee and 1 at Coors Field Faced great offenses in Washington and Chicago, and very good ones in Miami (though Stanton ph'ed) and Minnesota Pittsburgh was a respectable offense with Marte back and McCutchen returning to form when he faced them Cincinnati and Colorado were about average offenses His only "easy" game was at Tropicana Did this all in the thick of a tight wild-card chase It's not much evidence to go on, but it's pretty favorable given the circumstances. Can't wait to see him pitch this year. -
Absolutely no way they keep those 4 guys in the outfield to save a spot for Aguilar at 1b. His spot isn't even guaranteed if they trade Santana, as they will want to give Phillips a lot of starts in RF. I doubt Aguilar is even ahead of Perez as a priority.
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Great post overall, though I think there's going to be a little more playing time for Braun than you're suggesting. But you're right in the grand scheme of things. The Brewers wanted to improve and they have no obligation to plan around Braun. They got a lot better by replacing him, and I doubt he hits RHP's any better than Thames this year. At his age, it's all downhill from here. No matter how much that seems to trigger some people here, that's a fact. He will have to play a pretty solid 1b (and I think he could) in order to earn more than a handful of starts against RHP's there. The only semi-regular option he's better than is Aguilar as the RHB 1b at this point. Even if they trade Santana, Phillips would have to be a pretty big disappointment in order to not deserve most starts against RHB's in RF.
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I think we talked about this before, but if you're going off what I said, you should know that I researched it some more and it doesn't quite work that way. The signing team forfeits a pick regardless, but that's not the compensation pick. It's just a forfeited pick and as far as I can tell, it just disappears. What pick the old team gets doesn't depend on what pick was forfeited. It depends on whether they were a tax team, a revenue-sharing recipient, or neither. The Cubs are neither and will automatically get a pick at the end of the 2nd round if Arrieta signs elsewhere before the draft. The Brewers receive revenue sharing, so they didn't forfeit any of their best picks. But they forfeited their 3rd-rounder for Cain and would forfeit their 4th-rounder to sign any other player (before the draft) who rejected a QO. It's complicated and it's also a pretty new system. I'm off that idea for now because I'd rather not give up a pick for Arrieta at a salary he will command.
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I doubt they had something worked out. I think it's more likely that they decided to keep moving forward regardless of whether they're "stuck" with Braun. They saw an opportunity to get much better without giving up too much, and they jumped at it. There's no reason to let Braun stop you from taking advantage of opportunities like that. It gives him no choice but to act willing and eager to play 1b, which is a ninja move by Stearns. Braun would never get away with any pouting, or even openly questioning it, at this point. If it doesn't work out at 1b, it's totally fine to sit him more. Maybe he will accept a trade at that point. It would certainly benefit the Brewers a great deal if he would, but that's a stretch. Hopefully he plays 1b about as well as Thames, Aguilar, or most of the free agent 1b's like Duda and Morrison.
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Bump. I'd be fine with this. Watch Garcia, Woodruff, and Chacin be significantly better than Hendricks, Lester, and Chatwood.
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As long as the D-Backs are gonna have trash defense in right anyway, how about Thames? Thames + Broxton for Corbin + a low-level lotto ticket gets them much better outfield depth and saves them a lot of money without giving up much. Then the Brewers can sign Morrison, Lind, or Duda to a 1-year deal to share 1b with Braun.
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He won't accept trades unless maybe he's riding the pine a little too much for his liking, which would work for me. This is as good a place as any to revisit the Braun trade debates. It could get a little tense but in the long-term, it's good to reflect on your own decision-making process and figure out what nuances you might have overlooked. To me it's obviously mostly about age and injury and the lack of a DH, but another key factor is (or should have been) the glut of outfield prospects, the uncertainty of whether Braun could play 1b, and the relative ease with which you can replace a guy like that with a young player so much better on defense that it hardly even matters if Braun is the superior hitter. Guys like Braun just aren't really that special after a certain age. The other issue was money. Many people assumed there would be no better way to spend the money anyway. That was a false assumption. If the rebuild were ever ahead of schedule, which it now obviously is, there's a very good chance you would have multiple, far more pressing needs than a guy like Braun, needs which could easily be met with an extra $15-20m in payroll flexibility. We're seeing that come into play right now. I was not a Darvish advocate, but would have gladly outbid the Cubs for him if they weren't also paying Braun (and still have plenty left over to tinker with the pen or sign Lucroy). At least you'd be spending more than you should on someone who actually makes you much, much better.
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Don't know if you make any plans around Ortiz, but otherwise this is a valid point. I could probably be talked into it. Don't care for the idea of giving them Santana though. They're the fiercest wild card rival now and could be for a few years, and you'd be doing them a huge favor. It's not the same as letting the Cubs outbid you for Darvish, because the Brewers had such a low probability of winning the division anyway. I'm not conceding a wild card to anyone for the next 3 years though.
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A few more hints about the comparison I'm thinking of: - Also had his first full season at 27 as a long reliever who was asked to start for stretches of the year due to attrition - IP's, WHIP, FIP, k/9, k/bb, hr/9 all within 10-15% of Suter's numbers at the same age - Slow thrower who relied on location and tempo and craftiness to get outs - Notoriously bad 3rd time through the order, much more so than the average starter - When guys hit him, they often went yard, but he usually kept the damage to a minimum - Supposedly it was just a matter of time before he would implode completely, but he pretty consistently defied expectations Oh, screw it. It's Marco Estrada, another guy I had to go to bat for constantly because he usually got good results when used properly and not asked to go through the order 3 times, which the Brewers can easily manage with Suter too. It was always superficial to say Estrada sucks because he throws too slow and gives up lots of hr's. He was usually effective, and hr's in and of themselves are no more of a red flag against the pitcher than they are a sign of overall competence in a hitter. It works both ways.