coolhandluke121

Gennett, maybe. But Jason Rogers is another possible comparison. Either way, I agree 100% that he is expendable. You can't waste a roster spot on an emergency 1b and ph who does nothing at replacement level except slugging, and even that's projected to be roughly at replacement level at best by pretty much everyone except some Brewers fans. Braun/Thames is a perfect platoon with Braun getting some corner outfield starts. Vogt and Perez are the emergency fill-ins for their respective sides of the platoon because they're on the team for other reasons anyway. Santana can stay but personally I prefer Phillips as the full-time RF. I think Stearns greatly values defense and speed. I don't think analytics fully capture the intangible benefits of that sort of thing, and it appears Stearns agrees. I'm glad he's trying to exploit that market inefficiency and I'm very hopeful that Santana will be traded for a nice pitching prospect. I think Stearns and Counsell also wisely value having an extra reliever, especially with a number of starters who aren't likely to eat a lot of innings for a variety of reasons. I'm excited about what they're doing.

Dismissing his minor league track record is literally more than 10x sillier when projecting his value next year. I would be fine with him in a platoon but if you're trying to be serious about winning, you'd be a fool not to keep trying to improve that roster spot, which they are clearly doing.

I wouldn't quite see he should be that half of the platoon, but with Braun/Thames at 1b, he would clearly be a better option as an emergency 1b. With Braun and Thames you have two guys who can be borderline regulars at 1b, and one of them will be available to pinch-hit almost every game. There's no reason to waste a roster spot on such a limited guy like Aguilar as a 3rd-string 1b and pinch-hitter. Vogt can be the emergency LHB 1b and Perez the emergency RHB 1b. Both of those guys are infinitely better uses of a roster spot because of what else they can do. Perez's value on defense and the basepaths is so much better that it could almost close the gap with Aguilar even regardless of the fact that he can play 4 other positions well. You can probably even add 2 more positions that he plays about as well as Aguilar plays 1b. They need the extra reliever, period. Suter (or Hader) won't give you many innings per start, and guys like Anderson, Davis, and Chacin aren't exactly big innings-eaters either. Woodruff will probably have an innings limit as a young player, and Nelson will too when he comes back. This is one of the easiest offseason choices they will make.

Aguilar should not get a roster spot. How can you think a guy who OPS'ed .800 in 4,000 milb pa's would duplicate last season's success? He's Matt Clark and Jason Rogers all over again. If you disagree, please don't just tell me his stats last year because I know. Try to make a meaningful argument why last year was a more accurate indication of his talent than 4,000 pa's as a minor league player. (I bet you can't.) And I'd bet money Braun will be a better 1b than Thames or Aguilar. Range and mobility matters, even at first, and he also has better reach. His biggest problem at 3b was throwing accuracy but that will be mitigated at 1b. No way Yelich is in right. That kind of a range with a somewhat questionable arm belongs in left. I'm sure they want to play Phillips in rf, as they should. Yelich and Phillips can both play center if Cain is out, and Braun and Perez can cover the corner outfield spots if anyone is missing there. I'd rather keep 13 pitchers. Vogt can be the emergency 1b. I could live with Braun in rf and Phillips as the 4th outfielder, but another reliever would be a better use of a roster spot than Aguilar. Pina/Vogt Thames/Braun (Vogt) Sogard/Villar (Perez) Arcia (Sogard/Villar) Shaw (Perez) Yelich/Cain/Phillips (Braun/Perez) Utility: Perez Keep Bandy/Susac, Broxton, and some kind of Aguilar-type (pretty sure he's out of options, right?) in AAA for emergencies. If they can't find a trade for Santana, then they can trade Phillips, though that's definitely not my preference.

The idea of keeping Aguilar with all the talent they have now is laughable and I'm not the least bit concerned that they're considering such a waste of the roster spot under the circumstances. How people continue to assume that someone who can barely even play 1b and had an OPS of .800 OPS in over 4000 minor league pa's is going to duplicate last season's fluke success is one of the great mysteries here. If they have any sense at all, Braun and Thames will be the 1b's even if Santana gets traded, in which case Phillips will get most of the starts in rf with Braun filling in to get his ~120 starts.

I think it was established that there is no way Santana would ever move to 1b. Supposedly Houston tried it and it was an unmitigated disaster, a la Khris Davis at 1b. Also, some people saying Yelich in rf? Um, no... why put better range and a much worse arm in rf? It's easily Braun in rf if he stays in the outfield at all, but we should all hope and pray he plays 1b. Yelich (150) Cain (150) Phillips/Braun (120/30) Thames/Braun (80/80) With Perez and Broxton (would much rather keep him in the minors than sell low) filling in the blanks in the outfield. I love that potential lineup. If Santana gets Mejia, holy crap - could be my favorite baseball team ever (sorry '92 Brewers).

I'm normally against this sort of thing but you have to evaluate it on a player-by-player basis. I think this guy is worth it. The reason that so many deals like this work out badly is because most gm's frankly aren't good enough to discern between the majority of players who will not be worth it and the few guys who will. I have confidence in Stearns to be extremely picky when making moves like this, and in Cain to age reasonably well and continue to find ways to help the team. I am excited about the possibility of having just 3 regular outfielders (Yelich, Cain, Phillips) so you can carry 13 pitchers. All 3 outfielders can play cf, and so can Perez in a pinch. Braun can mostly play 1b but also play the corner outfield when necessary. You know have great defense, much better OBP, and more good LHB options. Broxton can stay in the minors if they don't get any worthwhile offers. Santana + a prospect for Mejia might literally have me attempting cartwheels in my apartment right now.

I guess if there were going to do something like this, you just cross your fingers and hope they get good value even if you don't agree with the vision. I'm confident they did that, as I believe Yelich will have more value at this time next year and the prospect package the Brewers gave will have less. At least this is probably reversible if it doesn't work out. I love Yelich's contract, age, and all-around game, and I believe he will put up big numbers at Miller Park. Isn't Miami known for being harder on LHB's? Not sure they can compete even with Yelich and Cain, but I do appreciate the fact that they're targeting much better all-around players. I think there are some intangibles you get from good base-running and patience at the plate and defensive versatility that still aren't fully captured by analytics, such as being able to do different switches and maybe carry 13 pitchers. I probably wouldn't have done this, but I love this roster make-up and will thoroughly enjoy watching them next year. Hopefully this means Braun to 1b and some rf. Pina/Vogt Thames/Braun Villar/Sogard Arcia/Sogard Shaw/Perez Yelich/Perez Cain/Phillips Phillips/Braun Santana for prospects or a sp?

Keeping him in 2014 was a mistake, and that's not just hindsight. In general, they didn't plan for the future enough before Melvin's last year, but then the one time they did make a move strictly for the future, they should have chosen something with more immediate benefits. - On 6/28, they were 51-32 with a 3.5 game lead over the 2nd-best team in the NL and a 6.5 game lead in the Central. - As of the ASB, K-Rod, Smith, and Duke were in the top-5 in appearances in all of baseball. - After June, Smith's e.r.a. rose by nearly 2.5 runs. - After July, Duke's e.r.a. rose by about 1.5 runs. - K-Rod faltered as well briefly, but he got plenty of rest when they started losing and finished outside the top-10 in games. - Wang's e.r.a. was over 10 that year. So, while one reliable reliever instead of Wang wouldn't make much difference in a vacuum, the context strongly suggests that the Brewers' best relievers suffered from chronic overuse and there was a trickle-down effect that goes beyond Wang's brutal e.r.a. Of course Roenicke was a big part of the problem (that guy was a total clown IMO) and there was plenty of blame to go around, but I believe it was really short-sighted to use a roster spot on a guy like Wang in those circumstances. It was a great chance to make the playoffs and would probably be their last chance for years, and they should have been committed to that. I believe it showed supreme overconfidence to keep him when they clearly needed another reliever. I was happy they drafted him, but things changed when they started the year so strong.

Huh. I thought he'd get more too. He's proven and deserves a lot more than Swarzak. I'm okay with the Brewers passing on so many of the other options, but this feels like the kind of bargain I thought they were waiting for. I agree with the person that said they might just want to look at internal candidates though. That's fair enough, and with all the other improvements other teams have made, they're justified in doing so. But this guy would have been nice as a flip candidate if nothing else at that price.

Don't worry, he's not a regression candidate.

To me an ace has not just the numbers, but also has dominant stuff when you watch him pitch. I think Nelson was trending in the right direction and I when I watched him pitched, I thought I detected that kind of potential. He obviously took a long time to develop any sort of consistency, but I think he was capable of having 3-4 really good years. One thing we can all agree on is that it really sucked to lose him in the heat of a pennant race. I hope he can still effective but I have my doubts.

At 37/38, how much more were people expecting him to get? The wheels have to come off at some point, right? Maybe he is immortal. It's just a 1-year deal though. Very low risk. He's been a 3 WAR pitcher two years in a row. This is about half his market value based on recent production, and market value often includes longer contracts that are a bigger risk.

Don't you get it? If we play to win now, we may forfeit our chance to win in 2022. Also, never, even if you are in playoff contention and you have a definite need at a certain position, trade a player who may be a productive MLB player 4 years from now for a player who is currently a productive MLB player. The important thing is that Stearns gets it, and we can be thankful for that. Even Mark A appears to get it now, too. I'm sure they won't object to being good again next year, but they're being patient and waiting for better opportunities, as they should.

Who's the 4th?

Stealth tank. Got no problem with it either.

They clearly still have that advantage. It's just as clear that the advantage is not what it used to be. They used to just go and sign everyone, but with stricter PED rules, their free agents these days often just end up being burdens anyway. Revenue-sharing, pool money rules, etc have lopped off another huge chunk of their advantage. They can't just outspend to win anymore. Not even close. Any team big-market team with that attitude is just going to fail spectacularly in this day and age. They had to do some pretty commendable team-building work to succeed. They kind of deserve to be among the best teams right now, though the gap definitely shouldn't be as big as it is. Small market teams will get their chances if they follow the blueprint. They won't get quite as many chances, their windows might not stay open as long, and they have lower odds of actually winning a playoff series... but they have enough of a chance to keep it interesting and that's a huge improvement.

Holy hometown discount. I'm willing to bet he got offered a good deal more somewhere.

There is something to this, but lets face it, the cubs are a more desirable free agency destination than Milwaukee right now. I would add that they went through their rebuilding period, too. Just because they're rich doesn't mean that they didn't have to build the team up from within like just about everyone else. Same with Houston, LAD, NYY, and Boston. They rebuilt, too. They're just at the point in their window where it's time to spend, spend, and spend some more. Yeah, they do have a big advantage because when it is time to spend, they can spend more, but it's not like they didn't go through a rebuilding period, too. The disparity is not nearly what it used to be. The main reason the Brewers aren't keeping up because they neglected their farm system for years. They fixed that, but that generation isn't ready to make an impact yet. They're mostly using the best possible stopgaps they can find, and that's why they're not going to compete next season. Throwing a bunch of money at mediocre relievers wouldn't fix that because they don't have the foundation to contend anyway. The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Red Sox do, and they mostly earned it. All those teams built from within and they aren't just on top because of their market size right now.

You do know why, you just don't agree with it. And that's fine. No WS crown this year if they sign a big name reliever or not. So stick to the plan. Develop the young arms in the pen, pick up a few flyers- which usually results in at least one really good BP arm, and live to fight another day. Exactly. Also, Houser and Williams aren't waiver wire material or quintessential AAAA guys. It's disingenuous to put the Brewers' young arms in the same category as guys like Goforth or Jungmann, and "minor league carousel" is inappropriately pejorative.

Thornburg, Jeffress, and Knebel say hello. Williams, Houser, and Barnes are next. Maybe even Baker. Much rather give those guys (and Wang) a shot than pay some of these guys what they received.

That's not really my point. The point is not that I'd rather have a bad, cheap bullpen. It's that I think you're almost as likely to have a good bullpen with what the Brewers already have. This market is stupid. A lot of these guys won't do well and teams will be giving away better players in salary dumps this summer, paying some of their salary in the process.

There's a concept in math called proof by "reduction to absurdity". You begin by assuming the thing you want to prove is false and show that this assumption must necessarily lead to nonsensical conclusions that are logical impossibilities, thereby proving it can't possibly be false. This is not as airtight as Logic, but if your plans for the team lead you to think the Brewers should be participating more in this free agent bullpen market, you've basically reduced your plan to absurdity. Some of these teams are rationalizing bad long-term practices and I think they will regret it. The Brewers are sticking to the best principles and they're going to be glad they did. I was hoping the market would be more favorable, but the best thing the Brewers could do this offseason is just drive up the price on guys like Swarzak and whomever else they tried to sign. Kudos to Grandmaster Stearns and his team.

This is equivalent to saying there's a good chance they'll be better than Braun in a couple years, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're both better in 2018. If you take exception to that, you haven't been watching Braun lately.

Was it not obvious that I meant Phillips and Brinson are likely to be better than current Braun in a couple years, if not sooner? I'd like to think I wouldn't have to clarify that... it was obviously a comment on the current supply-and-demand state of outfield talent.