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coolhandluke121

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Everything posted by coolhandluke121

  1. coolhandluke121
    No red flags with Cain's age and length of contract? I didn't say none. I just said the pitchers had more. Arrieta's decline plus TJ surgery for Lynn and Cobb? Yeah, I'll take the guy who just posted the best OBP of his career, played the most games of his career by far, and is still a gold glove candidate at a premium position and one of the best athletes in all of baseball at 32. No question.
  2. coolhandluke121
    But there are some durability issues, already. Sure, if you're just talking about basic rest and recovery, then you can manipulate everyone's off days in the way many are suggesting during those periods when everyone is basically healthy. But it seems the main reason people are suggesting there's enough pa's for everyone is that guys like Braun and Cain have missed a lot of games due to injury in recent years, and that really throws a wrench in the planning. Also, even if it's really going to be the best-case scenario that so many people are drawing up, there's going to be many occasions when everyone is perfectly fine and nobody needs a day off. What then? You go with the best players. I believe that's Yelich, Cain, and Santana, and I think the people in charge feel the same way. At 1B, Braun could get more pa's if Thames struggles, but I expect Thames to continue to be the better option against RHP's.
  3. coolhandluke121
    Yep. Easy decision for me. So many more red flags with all the free agent pitchers compared to Cain.
  4. coolhandluke121
    There could be a disclaimer at the end of every post that says this is just a forum and everything is an opinion or a "take", and could be wrong. However, it must take some serious mental gymnastics to think that they value Braun very highly but would go out and make the moves they made. Not sure how you can reconcile the contradiction there. As for thinking they had a deal lined up for Santana, I think the fact that they've already said Braun won't play RF even when Santana sits kind of obliterates that theory. I mean I don't think they got Cain or Yelich to play RF often. And I don't think they would have taken this risk if they weren't damn sure they could trade an outfielder. Stearns strikes me as a little more shrewd than that. The thing that makes the most sense and is also the simplest explanation is that they don't think Braun is a star anymore. It also happens to be perfectly consistent with their treatment of most other aging personnel options this offseason, notwithstanding Cain.
  5. coolhandluke121
    I would like to add that the whole concept of expecting guys to miss time with injury and thus being able to get everyone 500+ pa's is missing one critical point, and it falls apart when you realize it. You can't count on the timing of injuries to be conducive to divvying up the pa's the way you're implying. Injuries are unpredictable. If two guys are nicked up at the same time, the missed time doesn't automatically go to one of the other good players. What then? And when they're all healthy at the same time, you have to play the best players, which does not really include Braun at this point. Santana, Yelich, Cain, and Thames are all better, at least against RHP's.
  6. coolhandluke121
    Exactly. The front office is way ahead of the average fan in terms of understanding Braun's future place with the team. The writing was on the wall when they signed Cain after trading for Yelich. Yelich has never played RF and Cain's defense would be kind of wasted there. But they have made it clear that they had no intention of moving Braun to RF, as they have already said Yelich will play RF when Santana sits. There was no way of knowing whether he would be able to play 1B, and even if he could, Thames is better against RHP's anyway. You mean to tell me that they'd do all that if they valued Braun as highly as some people are suggesting? It doesn't make sense. I understand it on some level. We once thought Braun would be the 2nd-greatest Brewer in history. It was great to have a committed superstar in a small market. But it's time to give up the ghost. Still hoping and praying a deal to LAD can still work.
  7. coolhandluke121
    Sweet! Other than not being able to trade Santana for a decent young starter, this offseason has been incredible.
  8. coolhandluke121
    If they shared your view of Braun's value to the team, there is no way they'd be in the situation they're in now. None.
  9. coolhandluke121
    Exactly. The Dodgers wanted him. Insiders much more credible than some of the ones we've had here said the Dodgers got cold feet about the prospects. Puig + McCarthy should have been more than enough. The Brewers looked a gift horse in the mouth and here we are.
  10. coolhandluke121
    I don't know if it matters where he fits in because he doesn't want to go anywhere except maybe LAD. Fortunately, LAD is a good fit (Braun is still much better than Kemp in LF and would help LAD stay under the luxury tax this year) but what are they willing to give up considering they also have Joc Pederson in LF if necessary? That's the question. I do think Braun would waive his no-trade-clause to play LF in LAD, but even that's not a given. The Angels might be competitive again, but they seem okay in the OF and at DH. Does Braun's trepidation about playing 1B cause him to consider more trade possibilities? If so, do his recent comments affect the Brewers' leverage? It's just a bad situation with him, and it was kind of inevitable - if not because of signing free agents or acquiring guys like Yelich, then because of the in-house options they had.
  11. coolhandluke121
    Amen. I could not agree more with anything that's been said here this offseason. Everything positive and joyful last season was made possible by moving on from the past and embracing a new way of doing business, but keeping Braun was the most back-to-bad-habits thing they could have possibly done. And that's before you even consider the stigma of his PED scandal. I love the new front office, but they should be ashamed of themselves over this one.
  12. coolhandluke121
    My main issue with it is just being attached to "the face of the franchise". You have to make tough decisions in order to stay ahead of the game. I don't like the NFL, but one thing they have right is that they have a culture of doing what's best for the team no matter whom they end up having to cut. There's also the fact that they appeared to be a few years from contention, so it didn't make sense to keep Braun. Not to mention the fact that he was less than a year away from his 10/5 rights and now we're stuck with him. I still have hopes that it could happen. The Dodgers have surplus LHB 1B guys like Rios and Beaty, who have no place on LAD with Bellinger there but could be ready to take over for Thames in a year or two. They also have some halfway decent bullpen or 4/5 starter prospects like Jordan Sheffield and Trevor Oaks. Maybe the Brewers could include a prospect or two of greater organization need for LAD (seems they might need a Dubon in case of injury, or an MLB-ready reliever like Williams) in order to improve the return. A catching prospect like Will Smith or even Keibert Ruiz would be great. Not sure if they'd have any interest in Broxton or Villar, but they might? I really like the idea of freeing up more payroll in fall 2019 by swapping out Braun's contract for Kemp's, and it should be worth enough to LAD to entice them to offer something in return.
  13. coolhandluke121
    Yep. I still think it was actually amazing they had any chance to get rid of him in 2016 when the Dodgers wanted him, and I can't believe they didn't take that opportunity. The Dodgers backed out, but the Brewers could have lowered their asking price. His inevitable decline in the outfield, no-trade clause, injury history, and PED history, not to mention the team's glut of outfield prospects, should have made dumping him one of the easiest decisions a team could possibly make. Silver lining: maybe this is a precursor to a Kemp + prospects deal?
  14. coolhandluke121
    What I'm getting at is not that they couldn't use a boost to the rotation, it's that guys like Cobb, Arrieta, and Lynn aren't really even great bets to give them the boost they need compared to guys like Suter and Woodruff. Plenty of data about age-related decline and their own individual trajectories would support this. It's just laziness to go out looking for "name" pitchers and pay for the brand/name. In a way it's like any other business; once you've built a brand or a name for yourself, you can rest on your laurels (or cease to provide the same quality and value for whatever reason) and still expect to have great sales for a while before the average person catches on. Anyone who wants to stay ahead of the game - or, more importantly, any small market team that needs to - has to be extremely discerning about buying brand name players and giving up draft picks. That's why they haven't added a pitcher yet. It's probably not because they're being cheap, because certain guys don't want to play in Milwaukee, or because they think they're a contender with the current rotation. My guess is they'll sign someone to a Lynn-type deal (maybe a little more) or just wait and make a trade for a reclamation project or a Woodruff-caliber prospect to build depth and hedge their bets on young guys being able to plug the holes in the rotation.
  15. coolhandluke121
    No, he's not, but the average casual fan and the media that cater to them arguably are.
  16. coolhandluke121
    No, their comp pick will be after comp round B, somewhere around #80. They are not a revenue-sharing recipient so there's no way they could get a comp round A pick. And even if they were a revenue recipient, the contract would have to be $50m or more. The Royals got a comp round A pick for Hosmer, for example. Furthermore, it's worth reminding everyone that the pick a team forfeits is not the one that goes to the previous team. They are completely independent of each other. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658
  17. coolhandluke121
    Yep. And the sanctimonious nonsense has been completely out of control.
  18. coolhandluke121
    Yeah, it was more about people not wanting to offend HH because they thought he really did have sources and were worried he would stop posting. It was sanctimonious and also frankly a little unfair to anybody who, quite rightly, challenged the notion that HH was an insider. Unfortunately the rules for courteous discourse don't apply as evenly as you might think. Dissenters and people with unpopular opinions are often accused of being disrespectful when they're really not; their only crime is having the nerve to challenge the majority or the thing that people want to believe. Then they end up being the disrespected ones, but that's considered okay because they had to be "corrected" as Delbert Grady might say.
  19. coolhandluke121
    I respect front offices for all of this. It's better for the fans when you continue to give young guys in their prime those chances, instead of over-paying veterans before their inevitable decline. The NFL has it right and that's part of the reason it's so popular compared to baseball and basketball. I shed no tears for the players; they make enough. Now do I prefer the money saved to go to the owners? Of course not, at least not if that's the only factor in the dilemma. But I do care a great deal about the quality of the entertainment product, and that quality depends a lot on teams not getting stuck with terrible contracts all the time. And I don't think it's collusion. I'd have to think the players union would run the risk of a frivolous lawsuit given the overwhelming evidence that the kind of contracts they were looking for have been terrible for teams and for baseball. Teams don't need to collude, or even communicate at all, directly or indirectly, to all come to the same conclusion and produce an offseason like this one.
  20. coolhandluke121
    There's a pretty massive yin to this yang that you aren't mentioning. It's all about showing respect for other people, regardless of if your opinion differs or you disagree. But it's about being able to challenge things without people getting offended. More importantly, it's about the fact that while everyone deserves personal respect, not all opinions, behaviors, or takes deserve respect. HH19's attention-seeking obviously didn't deserve any, and it's inevitable that not all opinions will be respected. This forum is very unusual in my experience. I'm getting used to it, but holy cow it's touchy for someone new here. There are advantages and disadvantages of course, and I wouldn't want this place to ever turn into a complete poop-show like some forums that aren't as tightly moderated, but I think we were the opposite extreme during this protracted debate. Bottom line, trying to enforce a thing as vague as personal respect in such an impersonal space can easily turn into not allowing any scrutiny or dissent at all.
  21. coolhandluke121
    Yo, nothing sucks up outs in short relief like a Hoover. But if your wife doesn't like it, get something that will Suter better.
  22. coolhandluke121
    People keep saying that. Villar is not better as an LHB. He is better as an RHB for his career. He only had ~120 pa's as an RHB last year. That is not nearly enough evidence to refute his career numbers, which are still much better as an RHB.
  23. coolhandluke121
    I still say Cain is fine. He's going to be one of the best athletes in baseball for a few more years. This is not Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks we're talking about. I trust the front office implicitly and I believe they did their homework. He also has a rare combination of skills. Past WAR does not capture changing markets, but what we're seeing is that guys who aren't that much better than the myriad alternatives are no longer routinely getting paid as if they were just because they're more established. Is Walker going to be that much better than Villar? Lucroy over Pina? Moustakas over Valencia? Mark Reynolds over Aguilar? And don't even get me started on some of the $5m+ relievers that signed early on in free agency. Teams are finally wising up, but Cain is MUCH better than most of the alternatives so the trend doesn't extend to him. Lastly, I would make the case that WAR above 2 or 3 is more valuable than the first couple WAR you get from a roster spot. Walker, Villar, Perez, and Sogard could each get you about 2 WAR, but at the cost of 4 roster spots. The 5 WAR you can get from Cain is worth a lot more than the combined WAR of those 4 players just because he only requires one roster spot. If you're going to be a favorite to make the playoffs, getting 6-8 WAR from those 4 is not worth as much as getting 5 WAR from Cain at a little higher price. And that's assuming WAR fully captures Cain's value, which I don't believe it does because I think WAR systematically undervalues speed.
  24. coolhandluke121
    Sure, as long as The Price Is Right. I'm so ashamed. Anyway, the Moustakas deal got my hopes up for a bargain, but then the reality check: there are too many teams waiting for Cobb and Arrieta, among others, to lower their price, and that will keep it from falling too far. Fine with 3/$45ish though.
  25. coolhandluke121
    Cain had multiple suitors though, Moustakas and Boras from what i've read since free agency, has been looking to create a market and nothing materialized. The Brewers likely were the only team to offer Cain that fifth year, but he wasn't going to be had on a one year deal like Moustakas. Yeah, Cain is a much more valuable player. Moustakas is an ordinary player coming off a career year. It's a buyer's market, but not for every type of player at every position. The guys who really are head-and-shoulders above young in-house options and other free agents at premium positions are still going to get paid. In theory they should have gotten Cain for a little less, but I'm fine with it. Guys are getting so much less because people are realizing they're a dime a dozen, all things considered. Cain is not that.
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