coolhandluke121

No, it's not. When they built up a really strong nucleus, they went for it, as they should. Didn't do a great job of it, but that's a different story. However, it takes a long time to build a foundation like that, and it doesn't work if you're not committed to it. They just finished tearing it down less than 2 years ago. Thinking they should turn it around and compete with a team that has taken the time and skill to build up a young nucleus of the Cubs' caliber this soon is the type of entitlement usually reserved for the Yankees and Red Sox, and even they have had to build up a good foundation before making their move.

The Cubs waited a long time for this. The Brewers have to wait for their time, too. It's the impulsive mistakes the Cubs made over 10 years ago that buried them for years, and similar mistakes that buried the Brewers when they should have had a great 10-year run. The Brewers' day will come. Trying to win all the time usually just guarantees perpetual mediocrity, especially in a small market. I'm proud of the work they've done to make themselves a clear wild-card contender without compromising their 5-year outlook much at all.

It's the opposite of hopes and prayers IMO. It's actually based on a whole lot of sound analytics and rational moves instead of impulsive ones. They're maximizing value and the wins will continue to come without compromising the future. You have to be very confident you're getting a significant upgrade before paying premiums in free agency and trade. When you've got a bunch of ~1.5-2 WAR guys, you can't count on second and third tier free agents to be a significant upgrade. They'll be fine. Yelich and Cain are terrific. Braun is a big upgrade over Aguilar at 1b. Opportunities to get more pitching will arise. They aren't going to spend the first 3 months with a roster built for tanking that won by accident.

Not high on Corbin. Would rather give Suter a chance. Results count. Sometimes you have to realize that effectiveness can't always be reduced to a series of grades on a scouting report. I don't think he's going to be a regular in the rotation for his whole career, but he could easily be as good as Corbin next year. His bat and glove make a difference, too. Not sure analytics is up to speed with quantifying that, but it matters. I don't want to give Arizona Santana that easy, either. They're going to be pretty good for a few more years at least, and are the primary wild-card contender ahead of the Brewers and Cardinals IMO. Last year was no fluke. Make them pay Martinez. I'm fine with a $20-for-$10-$5-$5 Santana trade, but not with Arizona; it helps them much, MUCH more than it helps the Brewers for the next few years. Smith is nice and would fit an organizational need in a big way, but there will be other chances to fill that position in anticipation of Braun and Thames being gone.

Seeing some extremes on both sides here with Suter. You'd be foolish to bet on him to duplicate last year's success. However, did I just read that he has the most value as a LOOGY? No way. He's a great guy to have as a long reliever and emergency starter, and they should manipulate his appearances so he can regularly give 3-4 innings against teams with LHB-dominant lineups. The same guy who called him a LOOGY also said his biggest problem is he can't go more than twice through the order; I don't see how A leads to B there. You know who else had almost the exact same profile and stats in an uncannily similar situation as a 27-year-old getting his first real taste of the majors? I'll give you guys a few guesses and then I'll tell you. :-) ETA: It's almost scary how similar they are the more you think about it.

I've made this argument a few times too. Can he reach into the tank and come up with a few more really good years? His personality is a double-edged sword though. While it made him unexpectedly great, he may have been pushing himself too hard, like Guerra did to overachieve for a year. I'm still trying to understand the pick implications. I guess the Cubs get a comp B pick no matter what he signs for because they're neither a luxury tax team nor a revenue-sharing recipient? So the $50m cut-off only matters if the team with the QO was a revenue-sharing recipient... I'd go 2/$60m in that case. Opt-out after 1 year to try again next year if/when the market stabilizes. Take it or leave it.

I would add that you're not competing with the Cubs, Dodgers, or Nationals for regular season record anyway, so all you have to do is keep pace with: Mets (a Murphy's Law team last year that should bounce back by being less mediocre than most of the East) Cardinals (pretty good but some serious flukes on that team last year IMO) Rockies (arguably last year's biggest fluke) Giants (regression is in their favor and they improved their roster substantially) D-Backs (a very good team IMO) The Brewers were flukes too, but they made slightly bigger improvements than the Cardinals or Rockies. The West teams will be beating up on each other a lot, which probably takes care of the Giants. I could see Martinez staying in Arizona, and they're the only team that is clearly better than the Brewers right now. So basically you're hoping to sneak in and get lucky anyway, so don't compromise more of your future flexibility to get there than you have to.

I would go a good deal higher on a 1-year deal because the Cubs would not get a Round B comp pick if it's under $50m. It's also in Arrieta's interest to get back on the market right away because teams are saving money for next year.

I think it's more nuanced than that. First off, his speed in the outfield is good, but not good enough to make up for his lack of instincts. You have to have elite speed to compensate for not getting a good break on the ball. The best outfielders know which way the ball is going to slice or hook from the sound of the bat hitting the ball, for example. You can math this out, too. 40 yards is farther than you can realistically expect a corner outfielder to run on a regular basis, and the difference between a Braun and a guy with mediocre speed is probably about .3 seconds for 40 yards. Do you think Braun doesn't routinely lose close to half a second by getting bad reads? His throws also aren't very accurate, missing the cut-off man and stuff like that. I think he will be at least as good as Thames and Aguilar at 1b. Reach is really important in a 1b, and he can play an extra step off the bag because of his speed. That kind of stuff can compensate a little for a bad glove, and he won't have to throw much. He will need a lot of reps to get the decision-making down. I'm pretty optimistic. I'm not even that high on Braun this year and wouldn't be suprised if it's his last +2 WAR season, but he certainly has a ton more value than Aguilar as a platoon 1b who can play more than just against lhp's and back up other positions as well. ETA: I also am intrigued by having a fast 1b in the lineup. I think base-running value and range is something that analytics hasn't fully caught up to, and adamantly disagree with the notion that speed is "wasted" at 1b. Even if you don't care about the range and the ability to shift an extra step, the dude still gets to run when he's on base. This lineup could put a TON of pressure on opposing batteries and the benefits of that are underrated.

Ultimately it probably just depends on your gut feeling about a player. I believe Chatwood has decent stuff and pedigree and is on the brink of his peak, which will result in a couple pretty good years like so many slightly above average pitchers have had in their late 20's. Think Chase Anderson or Shaun Marcum, for example. I understand the worry about mediocrity and not being a good value, but this isn't like Garza, Lohse, or Suppan. Chatwood is potentially like getting one of those guys 3 years earlier than they did. The lack of a qualifying offer or comp pick and the number of years is perfect for the Brewers, too. Getting guys like him is exactly what got the Brewers 86 wins last year. Admittedly they would be paying a little more than they did for, say, Eric Thames, but that's what you do when you just missed the playoffs by 1 game. I agree about Chacin. No reason they can't have both though. Who knows what Nelson will be when he gets back, and they don't need any roster spots free this year anyway. Surely someone will bomb and they'll be glad they had an extra reliable starter without making any kind of seriously regrettable long-term commitment.

Do it. Plus we can give him a QO and get our pick back. I was reading more about the CBA and a player can only get the QO once in his career, so that's not an option. I'd lower that number a good deal, but would still consider something in the high 30's.

They were going to win the division regularly anyway. Like the Brewers early this century, they suffered through a bunch of terrible seasons to build up one of the best farm systems in my lifetime, but unlike those Brewers, they're not botching it to an extent that would make Herb Kohl proud. The Brewers just have to be opportunistic and get good values and maximize their chances of making the wild card every year for a few years without compromising their ability to take over the division when the Cubs go through their inevitable cycle of having an extremely expensive core on the tail end of its prime, with no farm system to speak of. Even the best big market teams still have to go through that cycle, though not as often or for as long as small market teams. I'm much more mad about them getting Chatwood. That's exactly the type of guy the Brewers should have been after. Then maybe the Cubs sign two risky contracts instead of one, giving up two comp picks in the process.

Mod edit: leaving this as it's a good post. It references a now deleted portion from someone else The patently obvious fact that he's not nearly the player he used to be, has been a liability in the field for years now, is a good 5 years past his prime, and is just now reaching an age where the vast majority of players cease to be valuable everyday bats? He has been a pretty good hitter for several seasons. It's foolhardy to assume it will continue.

Suggesting that the reason Braun misses so many games in not injury-related is semantics at best. He is fragile. Braun has played 135, 140, and 135 in 3 of the last 4 years. Playing 1b makes him a bit less susceptible to injury, more likely to stay healthy. Expecting 130-140 is more than reasonable. Implying it will be closer to 100 as many have is just nonsense. Averaging 121 starts on defense in that span and trending in the wrong direction. Almost missed over 1/3 of his games in 2013 before being suspended and OPS'ing under .850 with about -1 dWAR every year since going off the PEDs. Looked on the decline last season, and there's really no reason to think that's going to go the other way anytime soon. Father Time is undefeated. He's just a guy who's constantly susceptible to various aches and pains that limit his performance, and it's only going to get worse.

Suggesting that the reason Braun misses so many games in not injury-related is semantics at best. He is fragile.

In other words, there will be a platoon situation with him, and they might even have to waste a roster spot on a third 1b as well.

Nah, it's human nature to value location more than a few extra million. It doesn't happen often in baseball because there's no salary cap and the most desirable destinations also are usually able to offer the most money, but in the rare instance where a less desirable market is also the highest bidder, it's not at all surprising. It happens all the time in the NBA, for example.

See my second post. I looked it up and you don't lose a pick if you wait until after the June draft. I'm down with that. Make sure you're reasonably decent before going nuts for a pitcher. If they can't stay around .500 with Suter for a few months, Arrieta or Cobb or Lynn wouldn't make a big difference anyway.

Yeah, fangraphs still says you can avoid losing a pick if you wait until after the draft and gives the Morales example. I bet there will be more of that this year because of a perfect storm of circumstances. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/draft-pick-compensation/ I'm down with that. Make sure you're in the hunt before you go nuts over a pitcher.

Do I have it confused with a bonus pick? It's all pretty complicated. It could be a bonus pick before round 2 for the Cubs if he gets $50m or more. Still a big deal for the Brewers' interests. And the QO for Arrieta next year would fetch a pick. Could just wait until after the comp pick deadline date before signing anyone, too. Kendrys Morales did that a few years back. I'm sure a few players will be doing that this year. ETA: Just looked it up and $50m would give the Cubs a bonus pick after round 2 because they aren't a revenue-sharing recipient or luxury tax team.

Posted this in the FA pitcher thread, but it really belongs here. 1 year, $49.9 million for Arrieta. - Keeps the Brewers in the wild card picture. - Gets possibly the last really good year Arrieta has. - Avoids giving up a pick or signing a terrible (long) contract. - Gives Arrieta about half of what he would get on a much longer deal; how hard would that be to make up next winter?? - The Brewers stay roughly within their budget before worrying about raises and arbitration and stuff like that next year and beyond. What do you think?

I love that idea. Make him earn his next contact, then give him a QO and get an extra pick we wasted on the Cain deal. It makes too much sense to ever happen, right? Save face for Arrieta and Boras, keep the Brewers in the wild card picture, avoid the pick loss and bad contract that a small market team can so ill afford, and give Arrieta more than half of what he would get on a much longer deal anyway.

Just give Arrieta 1/$35m or whatever would make him the highest-paid pitcher in baseball for a year. He and Boras are so confident in themselves, so let them prove it. Heck, make it 1/$49.9m just to make it worth his while and still avoid giving up a pick.

But they can keep doing that. I've always argued for more piggy-backing and I believe a serviceable starter in the prime two times through the order can consistently be more effective than an aging starter through 6+ innings who was once a true #2/#3. The Brewers have the bullpen depth and lineup versatility to innovate in ways like that and continue to get the most out of their staff. It affords you lots of options for carrying an extra pitcher at times and minimizing pitcher ab's. And then Nelson comes back, and he can piggy-back with whoever needs it (probably Nelson at first on an innings limit).

I agree with most of it. Not sure it's easy to good from bad to good though. I would say it's easy to go from terrible to mediocre, but it's still a significant upgrade and that's all that counts. I think the pen is going to kill it, and I like homer's comparison to KC. Hader and Knebel might not be top-10 relievers again, but they will be good. Albers and Boone are probably more reliable than Hughes, Torres, and Drake. Guys like Barnes, Houser, and Williams are poised to be the next in a long line of Brewer relievers who had a few surprisingly good years in their primes (Axford, Turnbow, Thornburg, Jeffress). The defense could be awesome. I am glad they have a few plus 4 guys now, but baseball is not really all that superstar-driven. You just need the WAR on your team to add up to contention, no matter how you get there. And if you have a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys, it's usually a given that a couple of them will have a career year, even if you don't know which ones that will be. I wasn't posting here at the time but I wanted Chatwood from day 1 and I still think that would have been the best target. Just under the $50m threshold for giving up a pick, and of the right age for mitigating injury/aging risks and growing with the core for a long window of playoff contention.