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coolhandluke121

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Everything posted by coolhandluke121

  1. coolhandluke121
    I vaguely remember that too, but I'm pretty sure that was early on in the era of ramped-up PED enforcement, so some of the data they were using was still from the PED era.
  2. coolhandluke121
    What about the PED enforcement? Anecdotally it's making drastic changes in the other direction already, and I'm sure a statistical analysis would back that up. ETA: Also, there's nothing stopping young players from taking advantage of the same advances in training and nutrition. It's all relative.
  3. coolhandluke121
    Nelson has a torn labrum. Nelson wouldn't fetch nearly the prospect haul that Archer will anyway. If somebody made such a lopsided, short-sighted offer for Nelson as TB is requesting for Archer, I would do it in a heartbeat. Many, many people have a problem with paying Yu what he will likely get. An overwhelming amount of statistical evidence supports the notion that most players are already in decline at age 30. If you want to dismiss that in the case of a particular player, you better have a good reason to. A precipitously declining WAR over the last 3 years, combined with one of the highest hard contact %'s in baseball, for a guy who throws a ton of sliders, suggests an aging curve that's likely to be even worse than usual. mod edit: removed condescending opener. stop it
  4. coolhandluke121
    The funny thing about the future is that it always becomes the present. The only "need" that doesn't change much is "needing" to make responsible choices and have discipline. Based on what TB is asking, trading for Archer would be awful. The reason we "need" Archer now is because of their cavalier attitude about planning for the future years ago. It's okay to live in the present but not at the "WAR interest rate" you pay on trades like this. There should be usury laws protecting fans from their team owners' own short-sighted impulses in situations like this.
  5. coolhandluke121
    As few as there are, there are precious fewer who continue to do it after they're 30. This would be extremely short-sighted. I'm confident that they're not even considering it for what TB is asking.
  6. coolhandluke121
    Every pitcher who's a borderline ace in his 20's and afterthought for the rest of the career is durable, until they're not. Yelich was a good investment who has a great chance to outperform the prospects they gave up over his entire run with the Brewers, not just for the next year or two. Based on data about age-related decline, Archer has almost zero chance of doing so over the next 5 years, and it's not even a safe bet that he would "out-WAR" Santana next year.
  7. coolhandluke121
    It's not that the Cubs don't want him, it's that they don't want to pay anywhere close to his asking price right so they made other plans. It's just like what the Brewers did when Prince Fielder was a free agent. The difference is that Arrieta's price is going to have to come down, whereas teams weren't as smart about avoiding terrible contracts when Prince signed. When that happens and multiple teams are making similar offers, there's a decent chance Arrieta will want to sign with a Cubs rival just to prove to them that they made a mistake. He seems like that kind of ultra-competitor and I think it could be a good situation for the Brewers. I'd choose him over Darvish for the same money and years.
  8. coolhandluke121
    Every 12 hours since Cain signed, there's been a new rumored (or, at least, oft-proposed) Santana trade that's worse than the last one.
  9. coolhandluke121
    Probably means it's a fair deal A more likely explanation is that it's a really bad deal but many fans are being impatient and impulsive. 50% is about the percentage of fans you'd expect to be strongly in favor of a short-sighted trade that appears on the surface to have tremendous immediate benefits. A lot more people should be in favor if it's a smart risk. A lot more than 50% of us were in favor of a Brinson-for-Yelich deal, for example, so it's not like we're just refusing to trade prospects across the board.
  10. coolhandluke121
    Right, that's what I'm saying. I'm not really worried about the contract but the fact that Cameron was so effective at 35 doesn't make me think Cain will be. Cameron was the exception. If Cain is that good in 3 years, that will just be a bonus.
  11. coolhandluke121
    Huh? I cannot imagine a more different player. Cueto has so consistently outperformed his FIP metrics that you question its validity. Archer is trending toward and probably the best example the other way. Not to mention Archer is 3 inches taller and strikes out 5-10% more batters in the AL vs NL. I meant that he will decline dramatically soon, hence the comparison to being on the wrong side of a Lucroy/Gomez type of trade. It's a terrible time to be thinking about trading for him.
  12. coolhandluke121
    I still say no way on Archer. He's got Johnny Cueto written all over him. I don't want to be on the wrong side of a Gomez/Lucroy type of trade, and I'm sure Stearns doesn't either. The question is whether the ghosts of Mark A's sordid past will rear their ugly heads again.
  13. coolhandluke121
    I'm not too worried about the contract for a number of reasons, but I don't find this reassuring. It looks like a case of survivorship bias because it only includes guys who had already proven they could be excellent cf's at 30 and beyond. It's a very small data set in comparison with much more extensive data on guys like Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutchen falling off pretty dramatically in their upper 20's. There's no question that it's hard to play cf effectively past 30 and there's no question that athletic decline accelerates and the long-term effects of injuries start to accumulate at that age. I think Cain is worth the gamble but I'd be pleasantly surprised if he's as good as Mike Cameron, who was a rare exception, at the same age. Luck is likely to be a huge factor.
  14. coolhandluke121
    Posted this elsewhere but Darvish has under 3ERA in 63% of his games in wins/no decisions. A 2.35 ERA and 6.12ERA in the losses only 37% of starts. Arrieta has a 1.6ERA in 46% of his starts of Wins only. 24.6% of his starts of no decisions is a 4.04 ERA. Losses at 7.17. Taking the majority of Arrieta's starts his no-decision/losses 54% of the time he's a 5.36 ERA pitcher. Yeah Darvish is a far better pitcher. I have no idea what I just read but I'm pretty sure it's hilarious.
  15. coolhandluke121
    It has been pretty firmly established by multiple sources that "stand pat" is not an option whatsoever, so advocating for that is a fools errand. Obviously Stearns sees a need to strengthen the rotation, and he will find some way to do it. It's a matter of who they get, and what they give up. I didn't say "stand pat", I said make sure you're getting good value, which Yu and Archer are not. Maybe you could get Moustakas and Walker for the same price with only one comp pick, move Shaw to 1b, trade Thames, and trade Santana for Salazar+. Just spit-balling obviously but the point is that you have to "take what the defense gives you" and be patient, and I'm confident Stearns will do that. Look how many people got frustrated when they didn't sign any $6-8m relievers. Cain only cost $16m and is probably worth more than any 3 of those relievers combined. I mean he didn't get much more than Wade Davis, did he? They will be disciplined and wait for good opportunities, which Yu and Archer are not.
  16. coolhandluke121
    Good choice. It's amazing how often they do exactly what I hoped they would.
  17. coolhandluke121
    Yep, wouldn't even have to think twice about that if those are the only two options. Fortunately, "neither" is also an option. Santana for Salazar would be like trading Corey Hart before his prime for an injury-prone Gallardo in the middle of his prime. It makes sense if you need a starter that badly, but I would argue that it's a bit of a desperation move.
  18. coolhandluke121
    Of course they want money. You like being paid for your labor too I assume? As it stands now, free agency is the one chance a player has to actually receive what they are worth and deserve, since the years of team control and arb years suppresses their wages in their prime years and ownership reaps huge profits off of their labor in that time. And this is just the Major League portion of their career, most players grind away in the minors for years making next to nothing. Don’t blame players for wanting the money they rightly deserve just because the system is set up to prevent them from receiving that money until the downslope of their career (generally). You're missing the point completely. It's not about judging the players, it's about wanting your team to make smart decisions. I really hope the Cubs outbid the Brewers by $5 and Yu takes it because that will only help the Brewers in the long run, and it won't even take as long as you think.
  19. coolhandluke121
    No, he got the best offer and took it. Yu got his best offer and hesitated. He doesn't want to come to the midwest. You say everyone prefers the west coast, but it's not a deal-breaker for most of them. It appears to be with Yu. There's all kinds of red flags here, including his age and sense of entitlement. I'm not touching it. I'm confident that Stearns will remain disciplined, but the news of them coming back and matching the Cubs' offer is concerning. You gotta have a number and stick to it. Yu is not worth a mega-deal. They will get better value if they're patient. I don't even care if they don't get a starter. Spend all that extra money on one of the best offenses this century if that's what the free agent market gives you, or save the money for trades. Just be patient. Yu and Archer look like terrible targets at this point.
  20. coolhandluke121
    Friendly reminder that you wouldn't be trading for what Archer has done in the past, you'd be trading for what he will do in the future. Not sure everyone understands that. With his recent history of giving up hard contact and throwing tons of sliders, he's a strong candidate for a massive decline a la Gallardo. I wouldn't even trade Woodruff for him straight up. That would be a return to the Mark A era of impatience. I know they are back in "win-now" mode, but I think Stearns will make sure they take better risks than they have in the past.
  21. coolhandluke121
    Braun has a no-trade clause and has indicated that he would reluctantly waive it for the right situation if the Brewers weren't competitive. I really don't think he has any intention of doing so at this point.
  22. coolhandluke121
    According to...? Did you read HH's update? He's asking for best offers and then balking when he gets them. I'd bet pretty good money that he's trying to get LAD to put in a good offer. Call it a stereotype if you want, but Asian players do tend to prefer the west coast. Darvish should have taken the best offer if wasn't resistant to coming to the midwest. He's risking a lot of money by playing this game. I personally hope the Brewers drop out of the mix. I don't understand why you don't hear about Arrieta. He should be worth just as much as Yu. Is he just asking way too much? He won't get a Greinke offer in this market.
  23. coolhandluke121
    Well you sure as hell don't count on him to be the only reliable regular at any position either.
  24. coolhandluke121
    People would have reacted the same way if anybody had predicted a decline for K-Rod at the same age. Archer gives up a lot of hard contact and throws a lot of pitches. Of course the latter is true of all strikeout pitchers who throw ~200 innings, but he doesn't have the dominant stuff of guys like Sale and Verlander. Whenever I've seen him pitch, which admittedly isn't that often (who watches the Rays??), it seems like he's dancing around guys and laboring a bit, like Gallardo used to do. I always get the sense that offenses are about to break through against him. I'm not paying the cost.
  25. coolhandluke121
    Braun would not be a HOF player even with a clean record. Good lord.
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