LincolnDD

Ballpark Digest has some new (unofficial) reporting: https://ballparkdigest.com/2020/11/02/details-of-mlb-takeover-of-milb-emerge/ Big changes at High A and Low A: Low A Cali League - eight teams Florida State League - ten teams (two teams cut; probably still Daytona and Florida getting dropped) Sally League - twelve teams High A Midwest League Northwest League (six teams) Carolina League New Mid-Atlantic League AA Only thing reported in the article is that Brooklyn is still expected to move to the Eastern League, that the Marlins are expected to get Pensacola, and then the result of the AAA shuffling (below), which we've heard before. AAA Out: Fresno (dropped to Low A Cali League), San Antonio and Wichita (dropped to AA Texas League) In: Jacksonville (Marlins), St. Paul (Twins), Sugar Land (didn't say, but presumably the Astros) Pioneer League still has nothing on what their future holds. The site stressed that nothing is finalized and could change from this reporting, but this is roughly what MLB is shooting for right now.

MLB is proposing the NY-Penn go college wood bat as well: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-proposes-converting-new-york-penn-league-to-summer-wood-bat-circuit/ Doesn't sound like that would go as smoothly as the Appalachian League transition is going. BA suggested some teams may just opt to go Independent. The article also said not to expect to hear about the final 120 teams until after the election, possibly still several weeks away. Also reports of the new facility standards going forward: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/upgrades-required-mlb-proposes-stricter-minor-league-facility-standards/ BA suggests some teams may preemptively opt out of the final 120 if they feel they won't be able to meet the new standards. I know some improvements were made to the park in San Antonio prior to the 2019 season. I wonder if they were good enough. I know city leadership there was against a new park, so I wonder how willing they'd be to pay for additional improvements on the existing park. I'd also be curious about ownership is willing to do with the park in Carolina. Biloxi is probably in great shape given it's so new.

Here's a fun update, and an opportunity for me to brag about one of my predictions (even though it always made a lot of sense): A Marlins beat writer, Craig Mish, was on a Marlins podcast yesterday, and he said the "rumor" is that the Marlins will be asked to leave Wichita. For those of us who have been following this, that isn't a surprise, though he also seemed to be pretty unaware of all the MiLB realignment rumors until recently, which is weird. Anyway, he's hearing they would move AAA to Jacksonville, and then would take one of the existing Southern League teams to replace Jax for AA. He mentioned Pensacola specifically as a realistic option. Assuming the Rays stick with their long-term home in Montgomery, and the Marlins move to Pensacola, there really aren't any other regional fits for Biloxi, so I could see the Brewers staying there. And obviously this points to Wichita being available. The MiLB talk starts about 18:40. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/swings-and-mishes/id1430047783#episodeGuid=swingsandmishes.podbean.com%2F5b55248b-038d-3739-8957-8d11083ebe82 The Marlins' SBNation page covered Mish's comments as well: https://www.fishstripes.com/21528761/minor-league-baseball-news-changes-marlins-wichita-jacksonville There was also reportedly a conference call yesterday between MLB and the New York-Penn League, so we may start to hear about that league's future soon.

I do wonder if we're very close to hearing about the Northwest League. The A's beat writer for the SF Chronicle reported that the A's are expected to move their Low-A team to Vancouver. https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/A-s-exec-Billy-Owens-considered-for-Angels-15659586.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral Hopefully that means, as you said, we're closer than some people are reporting. Specific to this report, The A's moving frees up Beloit (edited: confused A's with Angels/Burlington here). It also means the Jays won't be housing their Low-A team in Vancouver anymore, so perhaps they're staying in Lansing.

Yeah, possibly. Maybe most teams are better at being tight-lipped than Boise, as most of the articles I've read recently interviewing MiLB team personnel say they have no idea what's going on. The initial rumors about the Northwest League were that they were going to move to full season (probably Low-A), with two of their eight teams being cut (Tri-City and Salem-Keizer). But Boise was also mentioned as a potential cut because they're pretty far from the rest of the teams in the league, and they don't play in great facilities. So maybe we're close to at least hearing the fate of the NW League, and pretty much know who will be a part of it. That doesn't really give us any insight into who the Brewers will end up with, though we should see some fallout in the Midwest League if it stays at Low-A (which I don't think is a given). The Angels, A's, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Padres all have teams in the Midwest League, so we could see some of them head to the new Northwest League.

For all the reasons you listed, they're a safe bet to still be around. If there's affiliated minor league baseball in 2021, you'll get to go see the Beloit Cheese Cows(?) play. But no, no definitive public statement yet. That pretty much applies to everyone though. Even if a team has high high high confidence that they'll be around, knowing league, level, affiliation, stuff like that, is still up in the air. And we may still be months from knowing the final 120. I posted this link earlier: https://www.milb.com/pensacola/news/mlb-milb-changes In that Pensacola Blue Wahoos press release from a few weeks ago: "The Southern League should remain a Double-A league and the Blue Wahoos should remain as a Double-A affiliate." SHOULD?!

Wichita does seem like a possibility. I guess it depends on whether or not the Twins and MLB can convince St. Paul to make the move to affiliated ball, as there has actually been a report linking the Twins to Wichita. I'd also keep an eye on Indianapolis. If the Nats end up in Richmond, I could see the Pirates head to Rochester. If no Richmond for the Nats, then I think they end up in Rochester. It doesn't sound like the Twins are going to stay there. Nashville will also presumably be open, if Sugar Land joins affiliated ball as an Astros affiliate, opening Round Rock for the Rangers. I could also see the Marlins end up in Nashville (everything I've posted here about the Marlins in Jacksonville has been 100% speculation on my part). It was Keith Law who reported in the Athletic back in April that Wichita and San Antonio could be dropped down to AA/Texas League, but I'd guess those plans have probably long since changed. Here's the article (subscription required): https://theathletic.com/1718395/2020/04/03/law-even-with-baseball-shut-down-specter-of-minor-league-contraction-looms/

Looks like Davis was their primary third baseman this year (at least until they acquired Todd Frazier). He was...not great. I wonder if he could handle first?

I was all about a Hader for McNeil/Smith deal last offseason, and I still am this year. Solves a LOT of problems. I'd love to find a way to get a guy like McNeil, but I guess I don't understand why the Mets would be motivated to move him? Also, I'm not sure if they have a huge need for Hader, do they? Edwin Diaz had a real nice year, and they also have Familia. Seems like starting pitching was more their problem this summer. Yeah, I think the ship has sailed for getting Smith "easily" after the year he had, and McNeil would cost a bundle as well. They got burned in the deal for Diaz, not sure they'll go all-in for a reliever again anytime soon. They'll probably have a new FO in place to go with new ownership, so who knows. Davis could probably be had, but that's because he's essentially a DH. You can put him at third (or in LF), but not sure you'll like what you see there.

I'd love to go one day. Pensacola was my dad's first duty station when he was in the Navy, waaaaay back in the early 70s. I think he still tries to make a trip out there every few years. They're a really great organization, too. They ariBNB'd their stadium this year to make up for some lost revenue, which was a really cool idea. They also were one of the few orgs to pledge not to let any staff go during the season.

Good point. I have gotten the impression that the previous facility standards that existed under the now-expired contract may not be the same going forward, so things like AAA stadiums required to have a certain number of seats may not apply now. I could be very wrong on that, though! The Blue Wahoos put a nice Q&A up on their website the other day about the pending changes to the minors, and are under the impression that they'll stay in the Southern League and at AA: https://www.milb.com/pensacola/news/mlb-milb-changes

Or Pensacola as AAA and keep Biloxi for AA? Greenville is a really interesting situation (to me). The team went all-in on their Boston affiliation and built a faux Green Monster in left field. I think we'll see some decent shuffling of affiliation with teams in the SAL, especially if rumors of Low-A expansion into the Northeast are true -- the Mets, Pirates and Yankees are all current SAL teams that might be interested in moving Low-A to better regional fits. There have also been some rumblings that the Boston short-season affiliate in Lowell may have been saved from being cut, so if that team moves up to Low-A, Boston may be faced with picking two from Greenville, Lowell, and a team they currently own in Salem (presuming they stick with Worcester at AAA and Portland at AA).

A great point. I really don't think MLB cares about the number of seats or bathrooms or anything else to do with the fan experience. If the stadium has a big clubhouse with plenty of amenities, multiple batting cages and an updated video room, then it probably fits. The only issue I could see for potential new AAA cities is travel, i.e. the airport.

That is true, but then you got the bottom of the barrell. Teams with the nicer facilities, ideal locations (either geographically or not massively above sea level), held all of the cards and got to pick first. Maybe thats how it should go, but the brewers somehow managed to get screwed by playing in subpar facilities in Nashville only to get the rug pulled from them once they got their stadium or just an unfair location in Colorado Springs, to no fault of their own, because most of the time they did have a decent farm system. I would rather see longer deals and more consistency than the more ideal teams just picking their affiliate every 2 years based on the condition of every major league team. Plus the MLB team or MLB baseball should get some say in where they play. Just seemed like the minor league club had most of the power in the dealing. Agreed. And I think all that is going to happen. MLB will make sure their teams get into good situations, where they want to be. The agreements will be longer (still undetermined, but anywhere from 5 - 15 years). MLB teams will also have outs if a partner team fails to meet or maintain standards. That's partly where the new relationship with those three Independent Leagues comes in, as teams will have options to move to if they want to break an affiliation.

Gotcha. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Yeah, a lot of those Midwest League towns sure feel like they could host a team higher up the ladder. I think they all make more sense as AAA teams than Sioux Falls does, too. In a hypothetical scenario where Dayton jumps up to AAA, does Cincinnati move their operations there, opening up Louisville? FWIW, I was just reading about when Dayton was sold (in 2014), and they reportedly went for over $30m. That's...a lot! The Syracuse Mets sold for $18m three years later. So the Dayton club holds a lot of value, more comparable to some of the more valuable AAA teams.

It's official on the Appalachian League: no longer an affiliate league with MLB parent clubs. https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-mlb-usa-baseball-announce-new-format-for-appalachian-league Pulaski is included in this, so the fact that they weren't on the original cut list with the other nine Appy League teams speaks to the fact that the list has changed. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear about the fate of the Pioneer League well before we know what the new affiliation structure will look like.

That would probably be a tough one to nab from Cincinnati.

Agreed on all counts. There was a lack of incentive for some teams to make improvements to facilities because they were guaranteed to have an affiliate. MLB has of course handled this process poorly, but MiLB really did need modernization and restructuring.

This is really interesting. It's the first mention that I've seen of Richmond actually being a possibility for the Nats' AAA affiliate: https://richmond.com/sports/professional/giants-would-like-their-double-a-team-to-remain-in-richmond-but-nothings-set-yet/article_8737669a-d14b-53f3-8c70-f088ce888a38.amp.html It also explains how the minor league teams won't have nearly the control they once did in determining their parent clubs. I found this interesting as well: I know teams were asked at one point to rank their preferred four of their existing affiliates, but I didn't know they were also asked to provide four places that might not be currently aligned with them.

Sports writer from Minneapolis, says if the Twins can't strike a deal with St. Paul that they'll likely move AAA to Wichita: The rumor from April had Wichita and San Antonio demoted to AA. If that's no longer the case for Wichita, have to wonder if San Antonio is sticking at AAA as well. If that's the case, maybe the Brewers are staying put there. Another Minnesota writer suggests the Indy team in Sioux Falls, S.D., could be another option for the Twins if St. Paul doesn't happen, though the stadium there may be an issues. He also feels the Nationals are Rochester-bound: https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/19/charley-walters-mlb-wants-the-saints-to-be-a-twins-affiliate/

Right on. Definitely sounds like a lot of confidence that QC (along with the Iowa Cubs and Cedar Rapids) are sticking around. Not a good outlook for Burlington and Clinton.

Ah, gotcha, thanks. The initial list seemed to be Beloit or QuadC, but I know the list has changed quite a bit. I'll have to try to reconfigure! Beloit has a brand new $15mil stadium on the way, I think they are more than safe. Right, that's why I "cut" Quad Cities in my plan, because the new Beloit park being built since the release of the original list had seemingly made that decision of one or the other. If I were to reconfigure, I'd probably remove Pulaski to get Quad Cities back in.

100% agree. Both Low-A Leagues cover way too much ground.

The MLB and the Appalachian League are holding a press conference on Tuesday, where it's expected they'll announce the Appalachian League is transitioning to a (non-affiliated) College wood bat league (https://wcyb.com/sports/content/new-format-for-appy-league-to-be-announced-tuesday). MLB has an option under the soon-to-expire MLB/MiLB agreement to shut down the Appy League at their discretion, so they could've done it at any point in recent years. I don't know then if the timing of the press conference, one day before the current MLB/MiLB agreement expires, means they're close to a new agreement. Or MLB may have just exercised the option under the current deal as part of the negotiating: "Hey, look, cut teams will still have baseball in their cities." This got me wondering what will happen to the Pioneer League at the same level. I found an article from earlier this month that just said one of three things will happen: stay affiliated, go Independent, or follow the Appy League to College wood bat (https://wcyb.com/sports/content/new-format-for-appy-league-to-be-announced-tuesday), so not much info. An article in Forbes today said the expectation is they'll go the same route as the Appy (https://www.forbes.com/sites/shlomosprung/2020/09/26/mlb-to-begin-official-minor-league-baseball-changes-with-appalachian-league-at-worst-possible-time/#230380f01bcf). So maybe. The Pioneer League covers so much more ground, I don't know how much sense that makes for college, bussing those kids for hours upon hours. I also wouldn't be surprised if the quality of some of the stadiums in that league might appeal more to an Independent League team; seems weird that the park in CS, recently a AAA host, would drop to hosting a few months of college kids. I guess it's better than nothing, but still weird. Anyway, I think that league may be split up some. The Somerset Patriots are holding an "Everything Must Go" merchandise sale today. Given the recent rumors of them leaving the Independent ranks to affiliate with the Yankees, I wonder if this is a hint that that will happen, potentially with some rebranding? Or maybe it's nothing and they're just trying to move merchandise going into the off-season...

Ha, thanks balsamlaker. I'm sure it will look completely different than what I came up with, but I wanted to try to complete something that at least made a little sense. One thing I did try to do is make more, smaller leagues at the two lower levels. I do wonder is we really will see that, mainly to create leagues with smaller geographic footprints, so the younger players spend less time on buses, and in theory having more time for play/practice.