CrewFanBrewMan69

Theo already came out and shot this down. Olney took some out of context quote from him and ran with it/ESPN sensationalized it. Theo said something like “of course nobody’s untouchable but I’d fine it hard to see a scenario moving him (Bryant) makes sense” and Olney somehow ran with the whole he’s being shopped thing. It’s kinda odd, he even had that quote within the article.

Haynes was with the Cubs for longer that last year I believe while all their guys were developing. I think he’s a pretty solid hire for as much as a hitting coach can possibly matter.

Cole Hamels has put up an ERA+ of 137 (2016), 115 (2017), and 122 (2018) the last three years. You can argue whether he's worth $20 million in 2019, but to suggest he's a "crap player" is just asinine. Yeah I would have been really interested in him for us if he hit FA, honestly. He put up those numbers largely pitching in 100 degree Coors Field South. That stadium changes and affects things for pitchers.

I see them going after and likely getting one. Probably Harper. They can afford to go in to the $250 to $270 million payroll range for a few years, they get a new tv deal or their own network in the next year. They also lose a ton of money in the next two years with Zobrist, Hamels, Morrow, Lester, Chatwood, and Quintana all coming off their books. Those guys obviously need to be replaced and they have guys getting arbitration raises but if they go get Harper this year they can still keep a payroll in the low to mid 200 range. They won’t be needing to go in to the 300 range to keep a decent team around if they can’t or won’t go that high. Also on the post above, where do you see be $22.5 LT hit? Everything I’ve seen is either $14 or $20 depending on if that $6 million buyout was factored in or not in his previous contract years.

I’ve seen it’s a $14 million LT hit for them (the $6 mil buyout was factored in to Hamels previous guaranteed years since it was guaranteed money) but they have to pay all $20 million in real money though. If you look at it as a Smyly for Hamels swap out it’s only $13 million of real money paid and a $9 million LT hit. I think it’s a fine move for them and he’ll be worth it. He made some real changes that seem sustainable when he got there.

Yankees need infield help and pitching. I don’t think they get Harper, but good for us I think he’s going to be a Cub and will be another bloated contract for them. Yanks infield is Torres, Didi, Andujar. All young guys who did well and cost controlled for years. I know Didi is hurt for next year but all 3 IF spots are filled long term. Their OF currently has one good player in whichever of Stanton/Judge plays then two openings. Gardner is just blah at this point. Their lineup is very RH heavy as well so a lefty slugger in the middle would fit well. Didi is going to have to miss a big chunk of the year and is a FA after the year, they don’t have any other SS options as Torres is very fringe there, Andujar is moving more towards a LF/1B/DH guy, they need a middle infielder in my opinion and a guy who can handle SS. Their OF is way more set and have prospects coming. Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Frazier, Gardner, the corpse of Ellsbury is around for 2 more years, McKinney, etc.

As someone who dislikes the Yankees I sure hope they sign Harper and play him in CF. His defense will be abysmal and he will get paid well in excess of the value he brings to the team. Win-win. If I was a GM I wouldn't touch Harper with a 10 foot pole. Yankees need infield help and pitching. I don’t think they get Harper, but good for us I think he’s going to be a Cub and will be another bloated contract for them.

I don’t think during the regular season they can flip the script, or do much more than what they did this year when you have 25-man roster constraints. IMO. September and the playoffs are a different animal where you can push limits, I just can’t see how it would work to do much more than we already did this year in non-September/playoff months than what we already did. You still largely need traditional starters in the regular season, we can still shorten games and limit times through the order but think it’s maximized at the moment.

Agree

A ton of pitchers we’ve brought in under DJ have had years they’ve never had or out pitched their peripherals. I think DJ has had a huge role in the success of this, not all of it but the majority. Sure the actual pitchers still had to perform and the FO had a role in identifying them and with the shifting but DJ molded these guys and got them on the right tracks. This is a huge loss.

Anderson’s velocity went back to where it always was and he pitched more like the pitcher he always was and was maybe hurt and Davies definitely got hurt and other pitchers pitched beyond their peripherals under him this year. I doubt Anderson and Davies years factored In because what made them be bad was beyond DJ’s control mostly. Losing him sucks. I hope being cheap on him isn’t a sign we are tapped out money wise on payroll too and won’t be adding much this offseason.

They've been saying this the last 3 years. If the rotation stays healthy, if Cespedes stays healthy, if we do this or that. Since their owners are poors they don't have a real chance of adding anything and they'll just keep lying to themselves that everyone will stay healthy (when they haven't since 2015) and they "have a great shot."

Yeah that’s how I view it. The Cubs fans I know don’t view the Brewers as a rival it only seems to be Brewer fans and Brewer media. The Mets and Dodgers are bigger “rivals” to the Cubs than us too I feel like. There’s a lot more history there.

Cubs are playing great, but they haven't wrapped up the NL Central yet - if after their next 10 games they still have a 5+ game lead on the rest of the division and the Brewers are out of H2H matchups with them, then I'll agree with you. A 5 game lead is substantial, but the Brewers having 6 H2H games and essentially a whole month to make up that ground against an otherwise soft schedule doesn't make it impossible. The Cubs get 6 Brewer games, plus Strasburg and Scherzer to round out 8 of their next 10, along with 6 games against the Dbacks and Cards - if they play this next stretch at a 6-4 pace or better, the Cubs cruise to the division title and best record in the NL. If they are 4-6 or worse in large part due to the Brewers winning both series against them, the division race will go down to the last weekend of the season. Short of us winning 5 or 6 of the remaining H2H vs them I really don’t see how they don’t have it wrapped up. If they go 11-15 (92 wins) we still have to go 15-9 just to tie.

In *somewhat* positive news, the Brewers' deal is ending when the Cubs' deal is (2019). So I do wonder if we're expecting to maybe go over that $110-120 million theoretical max that we believe Attanasio has either in 2019 or 2020. Obviously I'd expect the Brewers to go from $25m/year to like $45m/year so it wouldn't be that major of an increase. You don't think it would jump higher than that? Considering the ratings this year and we are in a competitive window. I found a 2016 fangraphs article that says the Rays got $20 million in tv revenue and that got bumped to $82 million per year. It sounded like the increases will be spread over 15 years, but still a much better deal. According to that article, the Brewers were at $24 million. I would like to think we can get a similar deal to the rays. We are definitely getting a better deal, but I don’t know how much better. I would still think the size of the deal is largely based on market size and not ratings over a small sample of years.

Cubs getting a new TV deal next year and are probably starting their own network. Looks like this will bring in around another $100 million a year for them on top of what they already get out of their current deal. https://www.cubsinsider.com/2018/08/28/new-tv-deal-could-earn-cubs-additional-100-million-in-annual-revenue/

100% agree with the first impression thing... Schoop is here for the Cubs and the lefty starters. I will reserve judgement until he faces the Cubs starters in Sept (and Oct?). He had one of the best OPS in baseball last season against lefties, and I like the idea of him facing not terribly overpowering lefties. For sanity purposes, I say his best is yet to come. Schoop is pretty bad this year vs LHP (.677 OPS, .294 wOBA, 82 wRC+) and for his career (.701 career OPS vs LHP).

It's not a debate about whether they're a potentially great team this year though. It's about the fact that they could have built a dynasty and instead made a bunch of impulsive moves for a very marginal uptick in their chances of winning a title now. On paper, that's arguably one of the most talented teams this century. Raise your hand if you predicted Darvish, Quintana, Rizzo, and Bryant to combine for less than 5 WAR this year. They should have over 15. And yet they still have the best record in the NL. Nobody is (or should be) saying that they don't have a really talented roster right now. But that's just the thing - why pay so much salary and/or prospects for some of the guys they've gotten when you would have probably won the Central without them? It's mind-numbingly stupid. They're going on their 4th consecutive playoff appearance, have made the last 3 NLCS's and won a World Series. That's basically a dynasty already by baseball standards. They will likely be the favorites to come out of the NL this year and they return their whole roster next year except Justin Wilson. I think they're set up just fine for the foreseeable future and have plenty of money to spend for Harper and then can trade some of their other guys that he bumps out of the positional player rotation for a starter. I don't know, I think they're set up pretty good for a while yet (they also just spent the most, or near most money on international free agents this last period so they likely will have a guy or two emerge from there). They get a new TV deal in the next 2 years I believe as well. At some point you have to give up worrying about prospect rankings and actually go and try to win baseball games.

The Rangers are covering the $4 million if the Cubs turn down the option, it's on the Cubs if they exercise the $20 million. The Brewers could've afforded to do that for this year and I'd guess the option wouldn't be picked up. And it's not just Hamels, if you don't get him go get Happ, Guasman, etc. It's ridiculous we didn't add a SP in some capacity.

Market size had little to do with it. He cost the Cubs around just $4-6 million this year and he’s a FA after the year if his team option isn’t exercised, Schoop will cost more. If we can’t afford that, then what are we even doing?

I like it. But I don’t think we should plan on Jimmy ever, he needs to be looked at like a lottery ticket. Also this team probably pushes $130 million in payroll. Don’t know if we go there.

What? They’re going to have the best record in the NL from 2015-2018 after the year, have a WS, and 3 straight NLCS appearances and another playoff appearance this year. How isn’t that building a contender? Plus they still are going to be good for at least 3-5 more years. I only can hope we have a run like that some day.

I think Brown is getting overrated just a bit on here. I think all of our young pitching prospects are being overrated a lot on here. If they can be used to add established players the trades should be made.

I agree. I think Hader has to be included for either and that's probably a no go. Even a non Hader trade is probably something like Hiura, 2 of Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta, Woodruff, and like Santana or Phillips and I don't know if that's enough, don't think there's enough top line talent there without Hader. Syndergaard had a set back and isn't starting Sunday now too, fwiw.

It's fairly easy to understand why any stat-based projection system would be negative about the 2017 and 2018 Brewers at least. There were plenty of players on the Brewers roster who didn't have much of an MLB track record going into last season or this season; Thames, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Aguilar on the position player side to name some. So when a player goes from either a poor/middling record to having a good season a projection system is going to assume some regression, or rather project something somewhere inbetwee the past numbers and the breakout. And that's usually what happens. Of course, a system like that can't know why performance improved. Maybe the player was finally healthy. Maybe there was a mechanical adjustment. Maybe it was a psychological adjustment. Maybe he corrected his vision. Maybe he added some more muscle. Maybe he added a new pitch. Case in point would primarily be the pitching. Jimmy Nelson was one of the worst starters who received significant playing time in 2016. Chase Anderson was 5th starter type innings eater prior to 2017. The 2017 versions of both of them were rather different from the past. They both recieved the Derek Johnson curveball treatment. Chase added muscle and velocity, while Jimmy figured something out with his command. So a previously erratic pitcher with good stuff found a way to throw both his good fastball and his new curve for strikes. And a pitcher with a previously good offspeed offering got some extra zip on his fastball to make it even better, and improved his breaking ball. With that in mind, it'd be reasonable to expect something closer to 2017 than the past for both of them, but from a stat-based approach the opposite would be true. Projections get a lot of crap, but they do offer something different. Sometimes they'll be way off, for reasons outlined above. But sometimes they will also identify teams poised for success or regression that no experts manage. They're more accurate over larger samples, obviously. But I'm pretty certain that an average of a projection system and expert predictions does better than either one on it's own. Which means they do have value. And on a team level, it's only rather late into the season that the results up to that point have better predictive value than the preseason projections. ETA: There were also projections that were more favourable, and had the Brewers in the mid-80s. Yeah pretty much all this and also projections don’t equal or mean predictions.