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Everything posted by monty57
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Doug Melvin steps down as GM; moves into advisory role
monty57 replied to torts's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
That could be said about any business. The president of a bank doesn't stand behind the teller lines and process every transaction. However, baseball teams are very small businesses with few employees, so the GM should know every one of them and at least have a clue about who they are and what they bring to the table. If all the GM does is sign free agents and decide who gets called up/sent down from the MLB roster, he should work about 60 hours a year. Instead, he works about 60 hours a week worrying about every aspect of the team. Like any boss, he hires people and trusts them to a point, but he sure as heck better keep an eye on them and know what they're doing. As to this move, I just hope there are clear lines defining what Melvin is going to do. It will be great if Melvin is there to give his opinion and answer questions, but it could get really ugly if Melvin is sitting next to Attanasio questioning the new GM's moves. -
sounds like he was told he was being placed on revo-waivers yesterday and they will actively look to move him to a rotation elsewhere If they are able to get anything for him - even salary relief - they should be doing cartwheels. That said, he does seem to be the type of guy the Cardinals will pick up who will be lights-out for them the rest of the season and post-season. Then the Brewers would probably re-sign him to a 3-year deal :-)
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I don't think power is any more important in a bench player than OBP. While he may not win the game with one swing of the bat he will certainly start a rally more often. All I want in my bench players is the ability to do something well. Be that hit for power, get on base, play defense or steal bases it doesn't really matter. All of those things can come in handy at one point or another. The best thing to have is a little of each. Agree. Everyone likes to imagine the "Casey at the bat" scenario where the team is down one run with two outs in the bottom of the 9th, but far more often bench bats come in mid-game to hit for the pitcher. The ability to get on base to lead off an inning or to make contact to drive in a runner in scoring position is probably at least as important as the ability to hit a timely home run. If Peterson turns into a productive bench bat for 5-6 seasons for below market price, that's pretty valuable.
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Shane's minor league OBP and SLG history are both better than Podsednik's. Interestingly, he's had high BABIPs throughout his career. On teams in which he has 200 or more plate appearances, he sports BABIPs of .398, .345, .330, .299, .380, 315, and .391. It would seem that "slap hitters" who hit the ball all over the field should have a higher BABIP than guys who try to hit everything out of the park, especially now with all of the defensive schemes teams are using. Has anyone seen a study on this?
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Catcher prospects to target in a trade
monty57 replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
100% this. It's really not worth it to try and acquire a really good catcher except by the draft. Their productive years are short and quick and they only play 130ish games anyway. The difference between a great but non-elite level hitting catcher and an average one can't really be that much. Get some guys who can block and throw out runners and take whatever offense they can give you for 3 years and then move on. Agree. While everyone looks at offense, much of the catcher's value comes from defense, game calling, and working with the pitching staff. A good defensive, "heady" catcher shouldn't be that expensive, and we seemingly have one of those already in Maldonado. Trade Lucroy for a package built around a stud pitching or corner IF prospect, play Maldonado in 2016 and see how our catching prospects develop. If they don't look like they'll be the answer, you can usually find a veteran defensive catcher on the market relatively cheaply. -
If we are trading Lucroy, Gomez, etc, then we are not trying to win over the next couple of seasons. Rather, we are trying to accumulate enough young talent that we can hopefully field a good team a few seasons down the road. In that scenario, Maldonado is perfectly fine as the everyday catcher. A good defensive catcher with some experience is actually a good thing, as he can help out the young pitchers. The big picture is figuring out who will be the everyday catcher in a few years, and that can be said about every position on the field. Trading valuable guys like Lucroy can help tremendously in this regard, as he should be able to bring back multiple talented prospects, hopefully filling several positions on future rosters.
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Should Thornburg be given a shot in the rotation?
monty57 replied to BrewersAA's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He's out of options next season so they can't just move him up and down when they want. Overall my only concern is how healthy his arm is. I'd hate to add to his workload after he narrowly missed TJ surgery last season. I don't know the amount of time it takes to come all the way back from non surgical recovery of a strained elbow ligament relative to surgical repair, but why risk the added workload in the first year back when you don't have to? I believe Paul was being a bit sarcastic, saying that is what the Brewers did to Thornburg in the past, which could have hurt him. After those four, it's September, when you'll be adding a slew of pitchers, including potential starters Cravy, Davies, and possibly Wagner* and Burgos, as well as relievers Goforth and Pena. Losing teams don't generally call up as many players as winning teams. I doubt the Brewers make too many Sept callups, especially of younger promising guys as we don't want to burn up service time in a mop-up role in a lost season. More likely to see fringe 40-man guys called up so the MLB guys can get a better look at them to see if they're worth holding on to. -
I think their plan is to trade him but they were in no rush this year with his value being hurt by being hurt and not hitting well. That's possible, but his value is still very high and any increase in value due to a good year would be offset by less team control. I think it's more that they don't want to give the impression of completely giving up on the next year or two for fear it would hurt ticket sales. They probably figure Lucroy's value will still be plenty high next year and the additional tickets sold by still having a face people recognize will be worth waiting a year to trade him.
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Should Thornburg be given a shot in the rotation?
monty57 replied to BrewersAA's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It'd be pretty easy to swap Thornburg and Lohse. Let Thornburg get a shot in a down season to see if he can cut it as an MLB starter, and let Lohse act as a pitching coach/mop-up guy. -
I think he should be (and will be) traded. I'd guess the Brewers will put on a face of still being competitive next year, will hold on for a bit to see if they can catch fire early in the 2016 season, expecting to trade him next deadline. They will hope he will sell some tickets early in the season, and help the young pitchers continue to adjust to the majors, but they can't pass up on the potential package of young talent they will receive by trading him. Right now, the Brewers look to have two potential star players in the minors in Arcia and Phillips, a few who could be good players, and a decent number who should help out at the MLB level. This is much better than things looked a year or so ago. If they trade Lucroy, they could have a group that could form a nice core of young talent for a long time. Forget extending Lucroy into his decline years for a lot of money... trade him for a few talented youngsters and extend them early to contracts like Lucroy is currently under.
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Well, there goes the chance to trade Fiers to the Jays. Glad that Melvin held out to the last minute to make sure he got the best deal. One thing that's for sure with this trading season is that the belief that teams will not trade top pitching prospects should be shot out of the water. It's just too bad that with all of this talent changing hands, the Brewers have not been able to capitalize at all.
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both due to business and competitive reasons I'd say that leans heavily on the "business reasons," as any belief in the "competitive" is contrived by the marketing team to get fans to buy more tickets (i.e. business reasons). Attanasio is deathly afraid of losing ticket sales, and has admitted that he believes fans are more apt to come to games if they know the players on the field. It's not about being competitive, it is about putting a team on the field that will cause the fans to continue to walk through the gate. This is why I continue to relate Attanasio's methodology with that of the Cubs under Wrigley, Inc. I used to work with a guy who worked in the Cubs' organization at the time, and that is how they operated. It doesn't lead to winning baseball, only to owner profits. I'm all for the owners making money, but when that is their only goal, I can spend my money elsewhere.
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No need for blue. Papelbon was traded for a 22 year old AA starting pitcher who MLB.com has ranked as their 10th best prospect. He's far from a "blue chip," but I'd like to see us trade K-Rod for a young, talented SP prospect.
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Exactly. There is very little risk right now for Parra to play for a couple more months and then become a free agent, so the only way we could extend him is by offering at or above what he and his agent believe to be their peak free agent range. There is no reason for him to sign an extension for less than perceived market value. Also, since anything can happen in the free agent market, he may well want to hold out just to see if his perceived market value is lower than what the actual market value ends up becoming. So the first barrier to an extension is that Parra probably wouldn't want to sign it. Then, knowing we would have to make essentially a winning free agent bid to sign the extension, we would have to decide if it makes sense to offer that kind of money to that kind of player in our current situation. With our current roster, we have one of the worst records in baseball. Signing this extension would eat up much of the money being saved from Ramirez, Lohse and Broxton coming off the books. With the deferred money owed and raises due, we would be near our max payroll. Signing him would also almost mandate the trade of Gomez, unless we would relegate Davis to a bench role. So, would Parra getting paid a lot more money improve our 2016 team to the extent that it would be worth taking the risk of signing him to a big money, long-term deal? I'd argue "no." He has not been worth anywhere near the $15M or so people are saying he could get in any year of his career except this one, so you are very likely to pay a guy $15M a year for 3-4 years when he's worth around $6-8M, which would seriously hamper any future attempts at putting together a winning roster. Even if he does keep up his current pace, it will probably be for a team that is below .500. The upside potential doesn't outweigh the downside risk.
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I think Ray Rice changed how sports executives (except Attanasio) view domestic violence.
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That's pretty much what I meant by comparing it to the Fielder scenario prior to the 2011 season. Melvin asked for two young, MLB ready starting pitchers, which is unrealistic for any playoff hopeful team to give up. He then said he tried but couldn't trade him, so he completely changed direction by extending Hart, trading the farm for Greinke and Marcum, and letting Fielder walk as a free agent. So, we're "open for business." What short-term veteran SP do you think we can get for a package built around Arcia?
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Part of me hopes that they do, as that may mean other teams will be willing to trade away their whole farm to win in one season, and the Brewers are at a point that they should take advantage of that. Part of me hopes that they fall on their face, showing Attanasio the foolishness of trading away your bright future for a slight increase in the odds of winning in one year. All of this talent the Royals are trading away could keep them in the playoff hunt for years, but now they will likely be in the Brewers' boat in a few seasons. Of course, if he didn't learn the lesson from his own team, it's unlikely he'll learn from watching someone else. Really, I don't care if they win or lose, I just hope the Brewers can somehow take advantage of it. No way in heck I would trade away a top-of-the rotation talent for Ben Zobrist. Please Melvin, get in on this bloodbath before all the meat is gone.
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Like Tom Petty said, the waiting is the hardest part. As I mentioned, I'm still cautiously optimistic that the trades will happen, but other teams are making big moves, while the Brewers seem to be waiting to the last minute. With all the potential moves on the docket, Melvin is juggling a whole lot of pieces and time is running out. Hopefully that doesn't bite them in the butt. Years of wishing the Brewers would put more thought toward to future has me skeptical, and every hour that passes just brings the anxiety up a little more that the deadline is going to pass without us doing anything meaningful.
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Big difference between Tulo and Braun. Tulo is offensively the best SS in the game; Crawford is getting close (but hasn't proven it over multiple seasons) and Peralta is 33 and likely not long for being adequate defensively at SS. Braun is maybe the 3rd-7th best RF in the game (clearly behind Stanton and Harper, then debatable between Braun, Bruce, Martinez, CarGo, Bautista and Springer). And you can move guys to RF from 3B/SS; you don't move guys to SS later in their career. Tulo has extra value because it's a much more premium position with much more offensive scarcity. That, and not having the PED thing hanging over his head (but that's secondary to position premium). I agree that Braun isn't worth as much as Tulo, but at least this opens the door a bit to show that this type of deal is possible.
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Where are the people who a few weeks ago were using KC as an example of a good FO while ours is brutal due to us trading everyone and "going for it"? This is why I think teams could do well by "cycling talent." There is always a team willing to give up long-term plans for short-term gratification. We just need to have the wherewithal and guts to take advantage of that.
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I have been cautiously optimistic all season that they would make some trades that would help the future, but I could easily see them setting their price unrealistically high, saying "we tried to trade them but couldn't find what we wanted," and signing more aging vets in the offseason to "compete" in Gomez's last season. Kind of a "mini-Fielder" situation, only with a lot less talent with which to compete.
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Maybe this, along with Shelby Miller being traded for Heyward will put to rest the belief that the only way you can get young pitching is by trading a starting pitcher. I would do cartwheels if we could do anything close to this for Braun.
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trading season and Brewer future
monty57 replied to KCBrewerfan34's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Regarding KCBrewerfan34's initial post: While posters have said that everyone should be looked at in terms of trade, I don't think anyone believes that the Brewers will completely "blow things up." We should remember, however that we are going to lose some guys at the end of this year and next year whether we trade them or not. For the rotation, Melvin would love to trade Lohse and/or Garza, but no one wants them. That pretty much leaves us either trading one of Fiers or Peralta (more likely Fiers) or taking Lohse out of the rotation (cut him or make him the long man). As Fiers is already pretty old, trading him now could easily be a "peak value" trade, netting us a pretty good package of young talent, while setting us up for a 2016 rotation of Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Garza and another young arm (Cravy or someone). I don't think that's a playoff rotation, but it allows us to get a good look at some young arms, and hope Garza can pitch himself into a position where we could trade him. Fans would also still have some names they know, which is important for Attanasio's ticket sales. By 2017, we will know more about the young pitchers to see if we can build a "homegrown" rotation going forward to get out of the habit of signing mid-30's retreads to multi-year deals. Lucroy isn't going anywhere this year, but the team scoffed at his attempt at getting an extension. That leads me to believe that he will be traded but it will probably be next deadline or next offseason (after the 2016 season). The delay is probably for ticket sales, but he should help the young pitching staff though next year. I just hope he can maintain his trade value. I also doubt Segura will get traded, more because he's lost value since his hot streak earlier this year and the Brewers couldn't get enough to merit trading him. He will be a capable stopgap until Arcia is ready. That leaves us with the possibility of trading Lind and Gomez in addition to the guys who aren't signed past next year. Both Lind and Gomez are under contract for one more year, so they are really the guys who you look at and ask if the playoff possibility is so strong next year that you give up the chance to trade them now, when you would get a lot more for them. I don't think it is, so I am all for trading both of them. Lind should be able to bring back a good prospect... someone who is very likely to give you value at the MLB level, while Gomez should be able to bring back multiple Top 100 guys, with one of them in the Top 10/25 realm. So, we would trade Parra, Cotts, and Broxton who will be gone anyways, trade Fiers before age starts lowering his value, and trade Lind and Gomez who are only under contract for one year (a year in which the majority of fans don't believe we'll be in the playoff hunt anyhow). We should get some good young players from all those moves, while still appeasing the fans who only buy tickets to see names on jerseys they recognize by holding on to a lot of names they know, including most of the rotation and "star power" in Braun and Lucroy. Then next year, we trade Segura when Arcia is ready, hoping that he builds his trade value up, and trade Lucroy, as he'll be in a similar position to where Gomez is now. That hopefully will bring back a lot more talent. If the baseball gods are in a good move, we might even be able to trade Garza if he shows life next year. By 2017, we would still have Nelson, Jungmann, and Peralta, and hopefully others will fill in from the farm and the aforementioned trades. We'll see who steps up from the farm in to fill all the positions, but we will still have Braun, Davis and Gennett, and Arcia should be a big addition when he's ready. We have a bunch of guys with potential like Coulter, Taylor who could help for league minimum, and again, we should get help in the aforementioned trades. Because so many guys will be young (pre-arby/arby), our payroll will be low, and if we could get some big talent back in trade, I could see us starting to see good things again fairly quickly. I don't expect to see the need to print World Series tickets in 2017, but we could be watching some legitimately good young pre-arby talent on the field getting their feet wet. The biggest hindrance I see is not getting value back from some of our big trade chips. Without the inflow of young talent from trades of guys like Gomez and Lucroy, I don't think we have a strong enough farm to be good again for a long time. -
I agree with this except for the "doubt that Brewers would have interest in helping Cardinals" part. Any trade is not about helping the team you are trading with, it's about what helps your team the most. The Brewers are not a playoff team this year, and if they are indeed going to rebuild, will not be shooting for the playoffs next year. In that case, it should not matter at all who they trade with, they should just go for the package that is best for them. While it's okay for fans to say "I hope any team but the Cardinals wins the division," it would be foolish for Brewer management to let that cloud their trade judgement. If the Brewers don't win it, it doesn't matter who does, as long as the Brewers are doing what they can to give themselves a better shot of winning it in the future.
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This is why I want the Brewers to trade away some of their good assets now. If two months of Cueto brings back two top 100 prospects, 1.5 years of Gomez and 2.5 years of Lucroy (both on team-friendly contracts) should bring back enough talent to immediately make our farm one of the best around. With that, we should be able to make this a fairly quick rebuild.

