monty57

I know you know that there is a big variance among prospects. While the slap-hitter in Rookie ball and Julio Rodriguez were both prospects coming into this season, no one would confuse the two. As you have correctly stated, Burnes is in rare air talent-wise. Therefore, he would bring back someone closer to Julio Rodriguez than the aforementioned "slap-hitter in Rookie ball." People bemoan starting prospects as if they are all the same. The guys we're looking at starting next year (potentially Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang) are our first round draft picks in 2018, 2020, and 2021 who have played well during their time in the minors. There's risk to starting anyone, but these are talented guys who we're hoping will be the core of the team for the next half-decade, not some random journeymen. If we do trade Burnes, this group will get a really, really talented prospect as a teammate, and there would be a couple more talented guys added to the Nashville and Biloxi rosters to help out in a couple years. Adding that to a team that already has a lot of talent (even without Burnes) should allow for the Brewers to push for the NL Central title again in 2023. I'd love for the Brewers to have the money to extend all of their current core, while adding a top prospect like Mitchell, Frelick, and Turang to the roster every year rather than all at once. That's how the Dodgers can operate. Unfortunately, the Brewers can't, so we are going to be more dependent on developing and/or trading for good prospects than bigger market teams. We will also have to become accustomed to trading away our favorite players while they are still good if we want to continue to have good young players as our core. That's just the reality of baseball for as long as MLB accepts that some teams should have a decided monetary advantage over others.

I would love to see them get a couple more years out of Woodruff, and I have been trying to convince myself recently that it is a possibility, as they should have a period with a lot of pre-arby guys coming up where we could afford another big salary. Good call Sveumrules that if we did the extension this year we could get another year of the three-headed monster at the top of our rotation before trading away Burnes after next year. My concern with extending Woodruff is his age, as he will be 31 in his last arby year. He knows that he will likely only have one shot at "real money," and he'll probably demand a longer-term extension that would take him well into his mid-30's. Those type of deals can feel good when they're signed, but feel bad when you're overpaying a guy for mediocrity in the final years of the deal. Ideally, we could get an extra two years. Realistically, he'd probably be asking for four or five. I've always had a hard time with the "he's valuable enough in the first couple years to make up for overpaying in the final years" line of logic, as his salary could be a real hurdle if he hits a cliff during the extension. We're always happy when we get something like the Cain deal off the books, so we have to be careful not to jump right into another one.

I would love to see them get a couple more years out of Woodruff, and I have been trying to convince myself recently that it is a possibility, as they should have a period with a lot of pre-arby guys coming up where we could afford another big salary. Good call Sveumrules that if we did the extension this year we could get another year of the three-headed monster at the top of our rotation before trading away Burnes after next year. My concern with extending Woodruff is his age, as he will be 31 in his last arby year. He knows that he will likely only have one shot at "real money," and he'll probably demand a longer-term extension that would take him well into his mid-30's. Those type of deals can feel good when they're signed, but feel bad when you're overpaying a guy for mediocrity in the final years of the deal. Ideally, we could get an extra two years. Realistically, he'd probably be asking for four or five. I've always had a hard time with the "he's valuable enough in the first couple years to make up for overpaying in the final years" line of logic, as his salary could be a real hurdle if he hits a cliff during the extension. We're always happy when we get something like the Cain deal off the books, so we have to be careful not to jump right into another one.

We've had a lot of conversations on this site over the years about "playing for a window," which essentially means lining everything up and using all of your assets to "win now" in a limited period of time. This creates a cycle of (1) begin the rebuild period (2) start adding assets as the prospects hit the majors (3) go over budget and trade anyone you can for pieces that will help you win in the proposed window (4) blow things up and start the cycle over again. Stearns has repeatedly stated (and has been echoed by Attanasio) that they are trying to be "continually competitive." This means that they are not looking at winning in a "competitive window," but will do what they think it takes to stay competitive year-in-and-year-out. To me, this means that they will not let Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, and anyone else they think is valuable to walk in free agency. They also aren't going to do anything that will be detrimental to the future in order to "win now" (i.e. going way over budget or trading away prospects they think will play a significant role in the coming years). They are going to have a hard time remaining "continually competitive" with so many arby guys who will be free agents in the next few years. That will be made harder the longer they hold onto everyone, which is why I think they'll need to trade some of their big names this off-season rather than waiting until next year and having a "fire sale." I think they'll trade Burnes and bring back a lot of talent that will fit in with the prospects we have coming up, that will help us maintain success for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, we'll still have a solid team in 2023 before we'll have to trade away Woodruff, Lauer, and Adames unless one of them will sign for a few years' extension. By that time, hopefully our prospects will have taken steps forward to become the new "core," while we will have another infusion of young talent from the aforementioned trades. It will be a tough path, and there's a chance it will bomb, but I think that's the road they'll take in order to attempt to maintain their "continual competitiveness." Holding onto everyone for one more year would seem to necessitate at least a short "uncompetitive" rebuild period. Notably, it should be easier to trade two aces over a two-year period than it would be to trade them both in the same year. Both Burnes and Woodruff will be highly sought after, but trading them in two seasons would allow them to take the best offer each year, rather than taking the best and second-best offers in one off-season.

You have Turang getting $10M. Do you mean Wong? Otherwise, Wong will get a $2M buyout and Turang would be league minimum. Plus, you have 20 guys and need 26. At league minimum, that's another $4.2M, but I doubt you'll fill all those spots for league minimum, so you'd probably need to figure $10M or so to fill out your bench, bullpen, and 5th starter if you're just putting "generic guy" there. This kind of shows that if we bring everyone back except Wong, and let our free agents walk to free agency, we're going to be around $120M if we do nothing else. Where the ownership group sets the budget after a down season in ticket sales will determine what Stearns can do from here. Note: This is a big reason why the team had to trade Hader, and why I think there is a good chance that one of Burnes/Woodruff gets traded this offseason.

To the four mentioned in this article: 1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go. 2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M. 3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher. 4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers.

To the four mentioned in this article: 1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go. 2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M. 3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher. 4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

Fingers crossed for Topa. Been a long road through his injuries, so I'm ready for him to be able to help out the MLB bullpen. Good to see Brosseau back, as he's had a good season for the Brewers and really helps out in the "vs LHP" lineups. Sending Ruiz down makes sense. I believe he's already used his option, he got another taste of the majors, and can now get some full-time play in Nashville.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success. If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3. You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there. The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns. Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

Yes, I was referring to what he’s doing in the minors. The MLB team still has a lot of “all or nothing” in it, but it appears that they’ll gradually be replaced over the next few seasons with some OBP/contact guys.

Yes, I was referring to what he’s doing in the minors. The MLB team still has a lot of “all or nothing” in it, but it appears that they’ll gradually be replaced over the next few seasons with some OBP/contact guys.

Adames is a free agent the same year as Woodruff, Burnes, Houser and Lauer, so it is feasible that they look to trade him this offseason. I just figured they'd hold onto him for another year, but if they see Turang as the 2023 starting SS, then they might look to find a young 2B/3B as part of a package for Adames. It seems that Stearns is trying to mold the team into one that focuses on OBP and contact rather than "all or nothing" power and I think the offense will look a lot different in a couple of seasons. It'll be interesting to see what he does. I'd certainly only trade Adames if we obtained another starting infielder, whether that came back in the Adames trade, or was acquired elsewhere. Brosseau is a good utility option against LHP, but he's not someone I'd want to rely on everyday, and beyond Turang we're lacking in MLB-ready IF prospects. That's one reason Urias is valuable to the Brewers. While he might end up being an average player, he's still got some years of cheap control, so there's value having an average player for a below-average price. That allows the team to spend its limited resources elsewhere. Urias isn't a problem, he just may be someone who you look to replace when he becomes expensive and/or you have a better replacement in-house and ready. Plus, he's still young enough that he could take the next step and become a good player, which would be a big win for everyone.

Adames is a free agent the same year as Woodruff, Burnes, Houser and Lauer, so it is feasible that they look to trade him this offseason. I just figured they'd hold onto him for another year, but if they see Turang as the 2023 starting SS, then they might look to find a young 2B/3B as part of a package for Adames. It seems that Stearns is trying to mold the team into one that focuses on OBP and contact rather than "all or nothing" power and I think the offense will look a lot different in a couple of seasons. It'll be interesting to see what he does. I'd certainly only trade Adames if we obtained another starting infielder, whether that came back in the Adames trade, or was acquired elsewhere. Brosseau is a good utility option against LHP, but he's not someone I'd want to rely on everyday, and beyond Turang we're lacking in MLB-ready IF prospects. That's one reason Urias is valuable to the Brewers. While he might end up being an average player, he's still got some years of cheap control, so there's value having an average player for a below-average price. That allows the team to spend its limited resources elsewhere. Urias isn't a problem, he just may be someone who you look to replace when he becomes expensive and/or you have a better replacement in-house and ready. Plus, he's still young enough that he could take the next step and become a good player, which would be a big win for everyone.

I think that this is what should happen. The question is to whether the Brewers are willing to bruise Adames' ego by moving him to third. He seems to be a "team first" guy, so maybe he wouldn't have a problem moving from SS to 3B, but usually vets want to stay at SS because it means they'll get a bigger payday when free agency hits. I think that both Urias and Adames "swing out of their shoes" too much, and would be better players if they focused more on making contact and less on trying to hit the ball 500 feet. But, in today's baseball I don't think they'll change, so I think Urias will be a talented player who hits around 20 HR but doesn't make enough contact/get on base enough to reach his potential. He's still young and cheap, so there is no reason for the Brewers to actively look to replace him. That decision will be made in a couple years when he starts to get his arby raises.

I think that this is what should happen. The question is to whether the Brewers are willing to bruise Adames' ego by moving him to third. He seems to be a "team first" guy, so maybe he wouldn't have a problem moving from SS to 3B, but usually vets want to stay at SS because it means they'll get a bigger payday when free agency hits. I think that both Urias and Adames "swing out of their shoes" too much, and would be better players if they focused more on making contact and less on trying to hit the ball 500 feet. But, in today's baseball I don't think they'll change, so I think Urias will be a talented player who hits around 20 HR but doesn't make enough contact/get on base enough to reach his potential. He's still young and cheap, so there is no reason for the Brewers to actively look to replace him. That decision will be made in a couple years when he starts to get his arby raises.

So Rogers becomes our left-handed setup man with Williams closing. It's a step back, but not nearly as big as it could be, as Rogers is one of the better relievers in baseball. He will be gone after this seasom Lamet is probably a multi-inning reliever with what appears to be two more years of arbitration remaining. Hopefully the Brewers see something there and he regains what made him a good starter early in his career. Since Hader's early days, the Brewers have done well by having a solid multi-inning guy or two in the 'pen, so he could provide some value in the "Suter role" Ruiz will probably take over Davis' spot on the roster and split time with Taylor in CF. Nothing to get too excited about, but should be a modest upgrade. Gasser seems to be moving up the charts a bit even though he's already 23. If he has indeed added a few MPH to his fastball and has a plus slider and change-up, he could be something. We didn't get a "can't miss" prospect, but since Rogers was in the deal along with two other guys who will likely be on the MLB roster, we probably couldn't have expected one.

MLB.com on Ruiz: Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40 A $100,000 signee by the Royals in July 2015, Ruiz was moved to the Padres two years later in a six-player deal at the Trade Deadline. Despite splitting time between two orgs, he managed to win 2017 Arizona League MVP honors after hitting .350/.395/.602 with 34 extra-base hits and 26 stolen bases in 52 games. Outside the stolen base totals, he never quite matched that production at the full-season levels and fell out of San Diego’s Top 30 last year after hitting just .249/.328/.411 with a 98 wRC+ in 84 games at Double-A San Antonio. He returned to the Texas League to begin 2022 and bounced back incredibly well in the first two months of the season. Ruiz has always shown promising bat speed and decent raw power from the right side. However, Padres officials had been concerned about his swing decisions on pitches outside of the zone, leading to either strikeouts or weak contact. The Dominican Republic native has worked with San Antonio staff in 2022 to cut down on the chase rate, causing his walk rate to nearly double while he’s done a better job of lifting the ball on contact. Ruiz has the speed to provide value, and he puts it to good use on the basepaths. His 158 steals from 2016-21 ranked sixth-most in the Minors over that span. Those wheels have helped him move from second to the outfield, and he’s been focused entirely on center to begin 2022. He’s still rough around the edges there with enough speed to make up for mistakes. Still only 23, Ruiz’s breakout could be enough to push him into a utility Major League role within the next two seasons.

From MLB.com's rankings: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Gasser spent his 2018 freshman season at New Mexico, then transferred to Delta JC and led California junior college pitchers in wins (14-0, 2.38 ERA) and strikeouts (139 in 102 innings). He still didn't get drafted in 2019 and didn't make much of an impression in 2020 after transferring to Houston. He opened eyes when he pitched seven scoreless innings against Texas right-hander and Tigers pick Ty Madden last February, and he ended up going 71st overall to the Padres, with whom he signed for slot value ($884,200) in 2021. Gasser's pro debut was brief -- 15 innings in rookie ball and Low-A -- but his stuff exceeded expectations and excited Padres officials. After previously operating in the upper 80s, Gasser's fastball ticked up last season and now sits in the low-to-mid 90s with running action. His slider has added power as well, sitting in the low 80s and showing flashes of becoming a plus pitch. Gasser also throws an above-average changeup, which surprised some in the Padres organization. The right-hander didn't use the pitch much as an amateur, but it's shown well so far in his pro career and could become a truly effective offering. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Gasser doesn't have a massive frame or overpowering stuff. However, he commands all his pitches well and knows how to pitch. He effectively moves the ball around the zone and could develop into an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.

What are they going to do with Lamet? Started his career as a promising starter, but hasn't had much success as a reliever in the past two seasons. If I recall correctly, there were some injury issues. Is he slated for a "Multi-inning reliever" role, or does he give them options to potentially trade a starter? He's kind of a weird add-on to the trade, but I hope they have a plan to make him a valuable addition to the roster.

Better be some damn good prospects.

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.