monty57

I agree, but I'm not overly concerned with the WAR he ends up with, as we all know that WAR is not handed out generously to DHs. I like it as a stat, but it's really not a fan of the DH. If Winker gets anywhere close to the 142/147 wRC+ level he was at in '21 and '22, he will be extremely valuable to this team, regardless of what the WAR formulas say. Edit: David Ortiz posted a 147 wRC+ in 2004 and Fangraphs credits him with 4.2 WAR, so there's that benchmark to follow. It took a 175 wRC+ in 2007 to get his high-water mark of 6.3 WAR. Winker is not peak David Ortiz, but if he hits like he did a couple of years ago, he's pretty darn good.

Using 2021 & 2022 numbers from Fangraphs: Luis Castillo: born 12/12/92, service time 5.101, 5 yr / $108M WAR 3.8/3.7, ERA- 75/45, ERA 3.98/2.99, FIP 3.75/3.07 K/BB 2.56/3.71 Chris Bassitt: born 2/22/89, service time 6.130, 3 yr / $63M WAR 3.3/2.7, ERA- 77/90, ERA 3.15/3.42, FIP 3.34/3.66, K/BB 4.08/3.41 Yu Darvish: born 8/16/86, Service time 11.00, 6 yr / $108M WAR 2.9/4.2, ERA- 105/80, ERA 4.22/3.10, FIP 3.90/3.31, K/BB 4.52/5.32 Woodruff: born 2/10/1993, Service time 4.161, WAR 4.7/3.5, ERA- 61/75, ERA 3.27/3.15, FIP 2.96/3.08, K/BB 4.91/4.52 Note the birthday... Woodruff turns 30 tomorrow. Happy birthday! Castillo is a good comp. I added the others as two good pitchers who have also recently signed. Bassitt was a free agent. Darvish is signed through '23 for $19M, so the extension would presumably begin in '24. Castillo had one arby year remaining, so the contract bought out that year and four years of free agency. Woodruff has two arby years remaining (2023 & 2024). Regardless, it appears that the low-$20's is the going rate for guys of this caliber. Castillo's contract also includes a vesting option if he pitches 180 innings in 2027, the option vests. There is also a Tommy John clause where the team would get a $5M option for 2028 if he has TJ surgery from '25-'27. Nothing too crazy, and he was one year closer to free agency than Woodruff. I would think a Woodruff extension would be similar to Castillo's, and maybe a little less as it would be for two arby years and only three years of free agency. If we assume they figured around $15M for Castillo's final arby year, the remaining contract would be at $23.25/year. I would assume he'd get the $10.8M he's scheduled for this year, around $15M next year, and if he got the same $23.25/year for his free agent years, the deal would be 5 years / $95.55 The big questions then become: 1) Would the Brewers want to risk paying Woodruff around $23.25M/year through his age 35 season? Yelich's contract goes through '28, so he would be getting his $26M/year throughout Woodruff's extension. 2) Is Woodruff interested in extending? It takes both sides to want to make a deal, and he may want to test free agency. Woodruff is the only one of the big three upcoming free agents who I think may make some sense to sign. I just don't think the Brewers are going to risk paying him that much into his mid-30's, with he and Yelich eating up around 40% of payroll.

I hear this all the time, but just last year the Mets got beat in the Wild Card game. After all the things Cohen did and money he spent, did they "waste everyone's time" or "prove they weren't trying to win" by getting beat in the Wild Card series? Meanwhile, the #6 seed Phillies (with whom the Brewers were fighting for the final spot) made the World Series. As has been said many times, in baseball it's about getting into the playoffs. Once there, any team can win. It's about who's hot at the right time. The moves made in the offseason are to try to put together a team that can make it through the rigors of the season and get to the playoffs. A lot of things, both positive and negative, can happen between now and October. Right now, I'd say we're a legitimate contender to win the division, which is the first bar that needs to be passed to reach the ultimate goal of winning it all. Give Arnold another $100M and I'd think that would buy a few more wins. Given what he's got to work with, I think he did pretty well.

I don't disagree that some things have to bounce right for the Brewers, but can we at least give them a 2-year average? Last year's team wasn't much different than the '21 team that would have won 100 games if they hadn't sat their starters for the last week plus. There is a lot of talent on the roster, but last year we lost 20-something games combined between Peralta and Woodruff. That's like losing most of a season of a top-of-the-rotation starter. Not many teams can overcome that without at least losing a few more games. A few more games would have gotten us into the playoffs. The team will be looking for a bounce-back from Winker, but as I mentioned earlier, he was injured so there's reason for his down season. Prior to the injury season, he was one of the best bats in the game. Anderson's another bounce-back guy, but I think his bounce-back would be "gravy," as the expected scenario is probably that he plays okay for a while, then we bring Turang up and run a rotation of guys in the infield like Counsell likes to do. Bottom line, give me a $120M team without question marks. I think the Brewers did pretty well with what they have.

I went into this offseason expecting the team to cut payroll, and I've never thought a long-term extension to Burnes, Woodruff or Adames was going to happen (although I've speculated of what I thought was a fairy tale scenario where Woody could stay). So that left a pretty tough path to improving the team. However, I also remember that last year's team was basically the same team that should have won 100 games in '21, so I figure there's a very strong core to work with. I really think people are underrating how good a bat Winker has. He was hurt last year, and it appears he and some of his Seattle teammates didn't get along, which is something you never heard of in Cincinnati, so I'm not worried, but it could have effected his play... he still posted a 109 wRC+. In his two previous (and injury-free) years, he posted consecutive wRC+ of 142 and 147. Here are some of his 2021 comps, Ohtani (151), Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), Kyle Tucker (145). Not bad company. If we had added Ohtani or Judge's bat, some here might be excited, but if Winker is over his injuries and goes back to what he did in '21 and '22, then that's basically the type of bat we added. This is a huge get for the "win now" crowd. Then there's Contreras. I don't think I've seen anyone anywhere say anything bad about this move from a Brewers' standpoint. It's really hard to say anything bad about acquiring a guy who was brought over for an unheralded prospect after having an All-Star season in his rookie year and still has five seasons of team control. This was a move that immediately improves the team, and will help them for years to come. Miley kind of surprised me, as it leaves the team with seven starters who will all start the year on a major league roster. Miley's contract was written in a way which states that he's probably going to start, so I'm sure the Brewers have a plan. At the very least, they now have seven viable MLB starters. Last year, the biggest reason we missed the playoffs was that we lost a lot of starts from guys like Woodruff and Peralta. We now have some additional insurance, which is already being tested with Ashby's recent "arm fatigue" statements. Plus, if they're all healthy Houser and maybe one other (Ashby?) could be used to strengthen up the pen. If Anderson plays like he did at the start of his career, then we just acquired a borderline All Star. If not, then he's a viable placeholder to get us another service year for Turang. I believe there were some injury issues, so we'll see what we get. For the price, it's hard to be upset with this acquisition, especially since Turang is a phone call away. I won't make this long post any longer, other than to say that I think we addressed our most glaring holes, while still cutting budget and not committing ourselves to long-term deals. I think we won a lot more than most will give us credit for.

I think Ashby's a bit up in the air until the "fatigue" is figured out. He could very well have an "extended spring training" run depending on how long he'll have to wait to start throwing a normal routine. Or, he could hit the Arizona sun, get some throwing in and feel fine. I do think that Houser could end up in the 'pen with a five-man rotation rather than giving him some of Burnes' and Woodruff's starts. Every start the sixth starter gets is taken away from someone else. When that someone else is a Cy Young candidate, don't use the sixth starter. Of course, we're not even to Spring Training, and one of our seven starters is having problems, so a lot could happen between now and opening day.

I was always a proponent of giving Taylor a chance to start. Then last year happened and he got his chance to start, only to post a 58 wRC+ in 24 games in June, got hurt in July (130 wRC+, but only played in 9 games), and then posted a 67 wRC+ in 23 games in August, which had people hoping for a call-up of one of the prospects. After Mitchell got called up, Taylor posted a 151 wRC+ in Sept/Oct. It very well could be a small-sample anomaly, but in the one chance he had as a starter he didn't do well (at least at the plate). His career numbers still look like he should be a capable starter, and I think he'll get the starting nod in RF this year. I don't think it'll be a long-term gig, as the Brewers are probably just going to keep Frelick down long enough to gain another year's service time, at which point Taylor will go back to being the primary backup at all three OF positions, which will still net him a decent number of PAs. I hope he does great, as that would help the Brewers regardless of their plans for him. Last year just left a bad taste in my mouth, and has me believing he's probably best suited as a 4th OF. I really want him to prove me wrong.

...and our pitching surplus "problems" are already working themselves out.

Interesting article. It looks like he throws a lot of his fastball right down the middle against righties, which would seem to mean that there is a lot of deception to get the swings-and-misses, but if they aren't deceived, they hit it hard. Either that, or he misses a lot down the middle and gets hit hard, but when he places is well he gets swings and misses. With the precision he has against lefties, it makes sense they hit a lot of weak grounders against him, and it also probably means the "either that" line from the previous paragraph is incorrect, as he couldn't be that precise with his fastball against lefties and that erratic against righties.

We've had this discussion before, so I know what your response will be ("teams don't trade top prospects in the offseason"), but at this point we are down to trading them next offseason unless they somehow are out of it at this year's trade deadline. Personally, I would've traded one of the pitchers this offseason, but at this point that seems highly unlikely. Therefore, next offseason it is. I believe (though I know you don't) that teams would be excited about the prospect of bringing on Cy Young talent, so I think they'd be willing to give up some value in trade. We have talent outside of the pending free agents, but not enough to remain competitive if all we get are draft picks who won't be in the majors for several years if ever. By bringing in some more young talent in trades, we can remain a competitive ballclub for years to come. It'd probably be a step back in '24, but generally when you're trading one year of a good/great player, you get a lot of years of prospects, and you gain more "WAR value" over the next six years+ than you gave up. We didn't make the playoffs with those three players last year, so while I think we're a playoff-caliber team, nothing would be guaranteed by hanging onto them until free agency. I look forward to watching this year's team, as I think they should be battling for a division title all season, while also seeing some of our future starters "get their feet wet" in the major. Then, I expect there will be a lot of trades, and I look forward to seeing the young talent that will be brought in, and how the future will be shaped.

I get the desire of fans to keep "their guys," but extensions this late are really not awarded much of a discount, so they aren't much different than signing a big-named free agent. Most people realize that the Brewers shouldn't try building the team through big-named free agents, so it seems logical that we shouldn't try building around extending guys once they're already well into their arby years. We should try extending guys early in their pre-aby years, like we have with Braun (first deal), Lucroy, Peralta and Ashby. For the players who don't sign these early extensions, we need to realize they are going to be year-to-year players, and determine at what point it's best to trade them prior to them leaving for free agency. That's true no matter how good the player is, or how much of a "good clubhouse guy" we hear he is. Extending any of Burnes, Woodruff, or Adames at this point would probably be a mistake. Letting them walk in free agency would definitely be a mistake. So to me the questions are: (1) When's the best time to trade Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames? (2) Which of our young prospects will sign early extensions?

I went back and re-read the "Sal Frelick" thread from last year to revisit how everyone was feeling at the time. All-in-all, not a bad read and worth re-visiting. Hindsight being 20/20, we can look at the timeline to further understand people's feelings in the thread: -Cain was fired mid-June. -Taylor had a wRC+ of 58 in June, but I don't know what was before/after Cain's release. -He only played in 9 games in July (injury??) when he had a 130 wRC+ -When he came back full-time in August only hit for a paltry 67 wRC+ at which time people really started calling for one of the prospects to be called up. Many of the posts were something like "Taylor hits a HR every week or two to keep his numbers up." It wasn't so much that people hated Taylor, but more that they wanted a prospect (assumed to be Frelick) and his high-OBP skills brought up. -Once he went back to more of a 4th OF role in Sept/Oct, he had a 151 wRC+ So maybe I was harsh on him, but when given the starting job he got hurt and then didn't play well. That's probably not overly predictive, but when he was starting most posters here wanted him replaced. I hope the best for him, as he'll probably be the Brewers opening day RF, but I expect we'll see a lot of calls for him to be replaced in the first couple of months of the season. He plays decent defense at all three OF positions. For his career, he has been a slightly above average hitter (106 wRC+), which translates to a decent hitter for a CF, but a below-average corner OF. He is a low OBP (career .303, .286 last year with extended playing time), higher SLG (.452 career, .442 last year) guy. Last year we had a roster filled with low OBP / high SLG guys, and Taylor fit right into that mold. We'll see how our moves have changed things. Looking at all this hasn't changed my thought that without regard to service time, I would absolutely want Frelick and his high OBP style as a starter over Taylor. I hope that Taylor does well and helps the team for his time as a starter, but I expect him to be replaced by a prospect when the service time issues are cleared up.

I was always a proponent of giving Taylor a chance to start, but when given that chance last year he blew it. Maybe it was just bad timing/small sample, but he appears to be better as a 4th OF than as a full-time guy. He plays decent defense across the field, and as he's right-handed while Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Winker are all left-handed. I'm not saying let him go, as I think he'll play a big role on the '23 team. I'm just saying that I don't think his numbers will hold up if he gets 600 PAs a season. I think that Frelick would be a better full-time player in '23 than Taylor, so I think that if Frelick is going to start the season in AAA, it's for service time reasons.

Okay @brewerfan82 and @sveumrules, you caught me on a rant as I would like to see Frelick up on Opening Day. It is good to see that Winker is better vs LHP than I thought. He'll probably get cemented into the 3/4 hole everyday just like McCutchen was, but at least there is hope that he won't be completely horrible vs LHP, even if he should at least be moved down in the order. As to the "CF costing us games" comment, most were calling for Frelick to be brought up, and the only semi-logical argument why he wasn't was that the Brewers wanted him to retain rookie status in '23 for the new ROY rules. Surprisingly, it was Mitchell who was called up over Frelick, and since he still retains rookie status, the Brewers could get a draft pick if he does well enough in ROY voting. It could be argued that had Frelick been brought up a month or so earlier, it would have helped clear the hurdle to get into the playoffs. Taylor was bad, and while Davis provided value with magnificent defense, he struggled offensively. Hopefully Taylor plays better as our starting RF for the first month or so of '23 than he did as a starter in '22. As to Frelick, I think that he will be in AAA exactly as long as it takes for service time issues, and then will be starting in the majors. I like Taylor as a 4th OF, but not as a starter, and I like Winker a lot more as a DH than as someone who has to spend a lot of time in the field.

I think this is accurate. It sucks to have your better options in the minors while guys like Taylor are starting in the majors, but teams do it all the time, and it should get us another year of Turang and Frelick in their prime. At least from his quote, Frelick appears to have a good attitude towards it. Not like Bryant who sued the Cubs over this same thing. Anderson's versatility helps cover all the positions, and we'll likely see Winker in the OF more than many here have predicted. If Anderson regains his form, Turang could be in the minors for a while, but I doubt they'll keep Frelick down for a day longer than they have to for service time concerns.

I agree with that. Of course there will be some injuries, but basically a 5-man rotation gives each starter around 32 starts (162/5 = 32.4), while a 6-man rotation would give them 27. I don't want Burnes and Woodruff to lose five or six starts each. We need them pitching as much as they can. As you mentioned, Ashby could be the odd man out and end up as the "long man/spot starter." I don't see Lauer getting this role, so if they want Ashby in the rotation, Lauer should be traded.

Houser has proven that he can pitch out of the bullpen, and at present his value to the team out of the pen is probably higher than the value he could get in trade. So, I think that barring injuries between now and opening day, he'll be in the 'pen. That still leaves six starters without options. At this point, I don't see them trading Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta. It appears that Miley was signed to be a starter (the innings pitched clause in his contract wouldn't be there if he wasn't starting). That leaves either (a) send Ashby to the pen, (b) trade Lauer (c) go with a six-man rotation. I don't like option C because that would mean a lot less starts for Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, so either Ashby goes to the 'pen or Lauer gets traded.

As much as many here, myself included, have said that Winker is our DH, I do not believe that the team has ever said that. If Frelick starts the year in AAA, I would bet that Winker will spend some time in the OF, probably flipping spots with Yelich when he needs rest. It looked to me like they would be starting three rookies on opening day, but it's looking more-and-more like they will only be starting one. It may be a plan to call them up as soon as they'll retain an extra year's service time, which has been done countless times with prospects over the years. I'll believe that, because the other option (they don't trust rookies) wouldn't jibe with them being a small market in today's baseball economic environment. Keeping Mitchell down so he could retain his rookie status while fielding Taylor and Davis at CF last year was one of the reasons we missed the playoffs, but I guess Taylor will suddenly be a viable starter now. Hope it works for them. I still expect a pitcher to be dealt, and I don't think they'll use Hiura correctly, so I'd like to see him dealt. That said, I now see the opening day position player roster as: C: Contreras 1B: Tellez 2B: Urias SS: Adames 3B: Anderson (backup corner OF) LF: Yelich CF: Mitchell RF: Taylor (backup CF) DH: Winker (backup corner OF) Bench: Caratini (backup catcher), Hiura (waste of spot, but I'll say backup 1B/2B/LF/DH), Brosseau (utility IF, starter vs LHP), Toro or Miller (utility IF). Brosseau will probably start at 3B vs lefties, with Anderson going to RF and Taylor to CF. Winker will play LF when Yelich DH's. They won't have an OF on the bench, so Anderson and Winker will have to move there when one of the starters needs a day off (or when Taylor proves that he shouldn't be a starter) Winker should never play against LHP. Ever. They will probably put Hiura in as DH against LHP, and he's probably the only guy on the roster who hits lefties as bad or worse than Winker. With what they're probably rostering, the best bet will probably be to DH Brosseau with Toro at 3B and Anderson in the OF, or just let Mitchell hit against LHP, which I don't think Counsell will do.

While I like the Twins' side of the trade more, I'll try to justify it: Lopez has two years of control remaining. He has posted 5.8 Baseball-Reference WAR over the past two years, so I'll assume 5.8 WAR over the next two years. Arraez has three years of control remaining. He has posted 6.2 WAR over the past two years, so I'll assume 9.3 WAR over his remaining three years. Salas is the better of the prospects, ranked #5 in the Marlins' system by MLB.com. He's only 19, and like many prospects struggled a bit when promoted to A+ Beloit (.659 OPS in 191 ABs). The 17-year-old Chourio was not on MLB.com's list of Top 30 prospects for the Marlins, but posted an .838 OPS in the Dominican Summer League. So basically, to even out the extra year of the better MLB player, the Marlins had to add a talented 19-year-old and a lottery ticket. That's quite a bit for the extra 3.5 or so WAR the Marlins are likely to get from Arraez, but then again, the prospects are still a long-ways from the majors and the Marlins will probably turn around and trade Arraez away in a yearor two and get a bunch of prospects back. Twins get 5.8 WAR from Lopez and prospects, Marlins get 6.2 WAR from Arraez and trade his final year away for prospects.

Brosseau hits lefties and we need guys who can hit lefties. Barring further moves, I think his spot on the roster should be safe.

It seems almost impossible to believe, but Cots says Taylor is in his final pre-arby year. I would've thought he was well into arby. Although he didn't perform well when given the opportunity to start last season, he has proven himself to be a valuable 4th OF. I think his experience will be important this year, and the Brewers would need to get a lot of excess value for them to trade him. With the plethora of young OF in the system, he'll eventually get traded, but I think that's a year or two from now. He'll still play a big role for the Brewers in '23. Hiura on the other hand doesn't have a place on the team. I really thought he should get more playing time last year to see what he could do. That they didn't give him a bigger role last year seems to show that they don't have a lot of faith in him, and therefore he should be traded away. Honestly, I was shocked they offered him arby, guaranteeing that they'd owe him a couple million. Regardless of whether we had acquired Anderson, I thought Hiura had to go. I think the acquisition of Anderson mostly affects the rookies. Prior to his acquisition, it really looked like we could be starting three rookies on opening day (Mitchell, Frelick and Turang). Now I think that one of those three will start the year in AAA. My choice would be Turang. He may deserve to be promoted, but with the economics of baseball, it isn't always that simple. He'll play for the Brewers in '23, but I think he'll be in Nashville long enough to "buy" another year of service time. Meanwhile, we can hope that Frelick and Mitchell play well enough to be in the top three for Rookie of the Year. That will obviously help the team win games, plus it could get them an extra draft pick or two.

Yes, Brosseau will definitely be on the roster. Can't believe I forgot about him. I think it'll be almost a straight platoon at 3B with Anderson/Brosseau. Both are righties, but Brosseau hits lefties a lot better than Anderson.

A lot comes down to how much the Brewers are going to utilize their MLB-ready prospects. I think the acquisition of Anderson probably means they'll start two rookies instead of three. I think Frelick will be up with Turang down. Since Anderson is a 3B who can play some corner OF, and Frelick is considered a better prospect than Turang, I would think that Frelick will be the guy up. Plus, Turang is a natural SS who has spent time at 2B, and Urias is a natural 2B who has been forced to play 3B, so why not just keep the better prospect up and let the players man the positions they're best at (Anderson 3B, Urias 2B, Frelick OF)? Mitchell, Yelich, Frelick, Taylor as the four OF (Taylor the 4th OF, not a starter) Tellez (1B), Urias (2B), Adames (SS), Anderson (3B), Contreras (C) as your starting IF. I still think Hiura should be traded, but if not, then he gets a bench spot along with Caratini and probably Toro/Miller as the utility guys.

This will be Turang's 23-year-old season, so if the team keeps him down a while, they gain control of his 29-year-old season, which for most players is one of their best years. If he's just an average MLB SS, that would be a fairly expensive year on the free agent market. As I said, I have no problem with him being on the opening day roster as a starter. I just don't want to lose a season of his prime for him to be a 23-year-old utility player getting around 300 PAs (Peterson had 328 last year). To me, that isn't a good trade off. If he's not a starter, then have him start the season in AAA. As to the extension, you won't find a bigger proponent of early extensions than me. However, many/most players won't sign them at the rate the Brewers would offer, so you can't just expect that the Brewers could just automatically ink an extension if he has a good rookie season. Plus, the price of the extension would go down if he has a year of extra "team control." There really is no reason to have him on the opening day roster in a bench role. Give that spot to someone like Toro or Miller.

In his two top years, Winker's wRC+ was in the 140's. That would put him in the Julio Rodriguez/Juan Soto/Pete Alonzo range. If he does that, I doubt the Brewers trade him. It would, however, go a long ways to getting us the division title and hopefully a good run in the playoffs. As to Turang, I'm fine if he starts, and I'm fine if he's held down to gain a year's service time. The only scenario I don't want to see is him taking on "the Jace Peterson role" as a utility guy off the bench. That would not be worth making him a free agent a year early, losing a year's service time when he's in his prime. To the guy in the title of this thread, I don't see a problem with him starting at 3B, probably getting some bench time in favor of Brosseau when a lefty is on the mound. He plays decent defense at the position and there's plenty of reason to believe that he could be a good bat again. If not, then he's served his purpose by buying us another year of Turang's service when he gets called up and Anderson gets relegated to bench duty or DFA'd. For one of the cheapest free agents signed this offseason, we have become a better team than we were before the signing. Urias gets to move to his natural position, Adames stays at SS, Anderson/Brosseau man the hot corner with Toro/Miller as the utility IF. We (hopefully) start Mitchell and Frelick in the OF, and now we don't have to start three rookies from day one.