monty57

I agree, and would add that next year we probably will have to trade some bigger names. It will be nice going into '24 if guys like Mitchell, Frelick and Turang already have a full season under their belt, and maybe some other guys (Gasser, Wiemer, Small) will have some additional MLB experience as well. I'm generally optimistic, but if we held onto Renfroe and Wong for this season, they would be walking as free agents at the same time we'd be looking at trading a host of other players. Most of our current potential rookie starters would still be potential rookie starters. At some point, we need to give a chance to our top prospects, and it seems wise to spread that out over a few years instead of doing it all at once.

I doubt we had the payroll flexibility to retain Renfroe and do the Winker/Toro deal. Trading Wong and Renfroe netted us something like $10M in savings.

True, but last year we depended on former star veterans (McCutchen, Cain and Wong) to all produce pretty well, and that was far from a certainty as well. It's not like the rookies are replacing superstar talent. The bar is set pretty low to outperform some of the production we got at certain positions last year. I kind of look at RF/DH as a combo. We lost Renfroe and McCutchen, but should get better offensive production from Winker than we did from Renfroe (Winker's "bad" last season was still about equal to Renfroe's "good" last season), so Frelick/Mitchell (whoever gets RF) is comped to McCutchen's offensive bar, which was a 98 wRC+. Defensively, Frelick/Mitchell should easily surpass Renfroe. Overall, I think we'll get better production from RF & DH in '23 than we got in '22. In CF, the bar is set so low from the Cain/Davis/Taylor fiasco that Frelick/Mitchell should be able to add positive value vs. last year. The hardest comp will be whether Turang (if he gets the starting 2B job) will match Wong's '22 production. Wong was horrible to start the season, but got hot after he was platooned in the second half of the season. He ended up with a 2.5 Fangraphs WAR, which is more than Turang is expected to provide. He's capable of it, but I don't think he should be expected to match Wong's '22 results.

In 2,070 career PAs, Winker has a wRC+ of 126. In 2,683 career PAs, Renfroe has a wRC+ of 109. In his down year last year, Winker posted a 108 wRC+, so offensively we have an upgrade there. Defensively, Frelick or Mitchell will almost assuredly be better than Renfroe, and hopefully will be able to match McCutchen’s 98 wRC+. So, I’d say RF/DH has been upgraded fairly substantially. We’ll have to see if they give Turang the everyday 2b role. He’d likely be better defensively than Wong was last season. Offensively, Wong did well after he got platooned. Overall, Wong posted a 2.5 Fangraphs WAR. Turang could do that, but Steamer projects him for 1.4, so probably a bit of a downgrade as Turang “gets his feet wet.” The bar in CF is pretty low, so whichever of Mitchell/Frelick wins the job should be able to outproduce what we got from the position in ‘22. Yelich, Adames, Tellez, and Urias are back, so that’s a wash. I think we’ll still add a catcher, but Narvaez was pretty bad, so the bar there isn’t set very high. Our starting pitching is all still around, and hopefully they will be healthier this season. We don’t have Hader. Overall, I don’t see how we’re significantly worse. I’d say we’re probably about the same as we were last season, with a lot of off-season to go.

Jansen is a free agent after 2024, which is the same year that we have a lot of guys becoming free agents. We’d likely be trading someone like Wiemer for one year of Jansen and then trading him along with Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, and Lauer next off-season. You can’t always get what you want, but I’d prefer that any trade of one of our better prospects would bring back someone with more team control.

Winker had back-to-back seasons with a wRC+ over 140 in ‘20 and ‘21. His “terrible” season last year still ended in a 108 wRC+, when he was apparently battling injuries. How is this not a potential “needle mover?” Nothing’s guaranteed, but he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball in two of the past three seasons. I hope one of the young guys can post a high OBP and get moved to the top of the order with Yelich. Then Winker and Adames can be the 3/4 hitters with some guys on base in front of them. I think he should fit into this lineup nicely.

To be fair, @Robocaller said that projecting a 3 WAR season would be "optimistic." He didn't say "far-fetched" or "impossible." I think that banning the shift will help Yelich, who hits a lot of hard-hit grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. I'll agree with the term "optimistic," but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that he could be a 3 WAR player this year. It will be a lot less possible if he gets moved to full-time DH, but at the plate Yelich is still an above-average MLB player. I like him at the leadoff spot. I just wish we didn't have to pay him $26M/year for his production. It will be fun watching this team if he stays at leadoff and one of the young, high-avg/high-OBP OFs earns the #2 spot.

Any pitcher is always one throw away from Tommy John. It is probably more likely that Burnes will have TJ over the next 5-6 years than that he won't. I would never expect a long-term contract with a pitcher to be injury-free. That said, I would love to have Burnes for a few more years. At his age, anyone would love to have him. That's why he's going to get a contract that is way out of the Brewers' league. We might as well expect that we'll sign Aaron Judge this offseason. Even with some sort of discount for signing him while he's still in arby (the discount wouldn't be too much at this late stage), he's still going to be too expensive, especially with the Yelich deal on the books. I know that I keep saying it, but small-revenue fans can't think like big-revenue fans. It sucks that we can't keep our guys, but it is generally not a good idea for a team like the Brewers to guarantee huge sums of money for a long period of time to anyone, even if he's really good. In fact, being really good might make it a worse idea, because great players are a lot more expensive. If we can't win with a 28-year-old Burnes making $6.8M while pitching like a Cy Young candidate, then how will we win with a 32-year-old Burnes making $40M? How will we do when he needs to take a year and a half off for TJ surgery, but we still have to pay him? Our next extensions should be to guys like Mitchell, Frelick, Turang, Chourio and the top prospects we bring back when we trade away Burnes, Woodruff and Adames. I find it ironic that I'm writing this in a thread titled "Do the Brewers Need to Trade Yelich," with the notion that we'd probably have to add Adames and Burnes to a trade or eat most of the contract just to get a team to take Yelich off our hands. And this is happening while Yelich is still an above-average MLB player!! Big, expensive contracts are really bad for small-revenue teams.

This season's rookies of the year (Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris) came from playoff teams (Seattle and Atlanta), neither of which are small-market teams who only play rookies because they can't afford to hold onto veterans. These guys played major roles that helped their teams win a lot of games. Sometimes your best option is a rookie. Talent sometimes beats our experience. If Seattle wanted to trade us Rodriguez for Renfroe at the start of last season, I'm sure Stearns would have been pretty happy, regardless of the fact that Renfroe had a lot more MLB experience. People act like veterans are a guaranteed success, while rookies are guaranteed to struggle. That's not true. Everyone has their ups-and-downs, but the more talented player will generally do better over time than the lesser-talented player. Frelick is the most talented option we have. If we wanted to trade him, we'd get a better package than Taylor/Ruiz/Perkins in return because he's worth more than all three of them combined.

First off, welcome to the board. I don't think they'll have the payroll room to extend both Adames and one of the pitchers. They will probably have a hard time fitting one of them under budget with the Yelich deal on the books (they could do it, it'd just keep them from doing other things). That said, the Yelich deal is a good example why you shouldn't use the logic "You can't turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young candidate..." Yelich was coming off of two straight MVP-caliber seasons, and we are talking about trading Burnes along with Yelich for nothing just to get out of the contract. Big money, multi-year contracts are very risky for any team, but they are especially risky to small revenue teams like the Brewers. We are far better getting pre-arby guys to extend, like we have recently done with Ashby and Peralta, and trading away players when they're getting close to free agency. It may not be fun as a fan to see your favorite players traded away, but it's the reality of baseball with the system they have in place.

Or Juan Soto. Cherry picking one player doesn't prove a point. I don't like rushing prospects, but as has already been noted, Frelick was a college pick who was expected to move fairly quickly through the system. He's a "bat to ball" guy who has put his bat on the ball at every level he's been at. AAA isn't a parking spot where good prospects spend a lot of time. Many of your best prospects spend little to no time at AAA. It is filled up with lesser-talented prospects trying to prove themselves, and guys with some MLB experience trying to get back to the show. The biggest step in the minors is the move to AA. If players dominate after making that jump, they're probably MLB ready.

I'd say all of the above. No one really knows everything that goes into why one player "clicks" while another doesn't. Heck, Hader may have watched a motivational video on a bus trip one day, and that was where everything came together. However, the Brewers have had success with getting pitchers to the MLB and having success when they get there, whether they are drafted by them, traded for while they're in the minors, or acquired after they've already had some time in the majors. This success should give us some hope for pitchers we have acquired like Gasser and the guys they got in the Renfroe trade. What could bring even more hope for the future is that they're finally drafting some position players who are showing success through the minors. Hopefully that will transition to the majors. It looks like Stearns put a lot into the system from top-to-bottom that hopefully will pay dividends well into the future. And hopefully, since it seems to be working, Arnold understands this system and continues to do what they've been doing.

They really don't have other options that are anywhere near as talented as Frelick. Other than potentially looking to save a year's service time, Frelick is not going to be held back in order to give a shot to Taylor, Ruiz or Perkins. Not all prospects are created equally. Some never make it, some need to "take their lumps" and spend time at each level to prove themselves, eventually finding a spot on the MLB roster. Then there are your top prospects, who the team finds a way to get onto the MLB field. Frelick is sitting in that category. Nothing is certain, and even top prospects sometimes fail, but after a disappointing history of failure in the draft, the Brewers look like they've finally got some guys that are showing they deserved to be drafted early in the first round. They are not going to hold Frelick back "until Ruiz, Perkins and Taylor fail." The front office is probably designing their five- and ten-year plans around Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Turang. The "other options" you mentioned are likely going to be fighting to hold onto "backup OF" status. Ruiz has a more potential than the others, but he's still raw in the OF, having been moved off of second base, so he needs AAA experience more than Frelick does.

I think the Brewers will start Mitchell and Frelick, but I don't think they'll have an entire OF of rookies. Do you think they'll play Taylor everyday in RF, do you believe Wiemer is ready, or do you think they'll acquire another OF? I'd guess that Yelich will be the primary LF, with plenty of "days off" at DH and Taylor getting a lot of playing time as the primary backup at all three OF positions. Wiemer will probably make his MLB debut this season, and by opening day 2024, I could see Yelich being the primary DH, but I don't think they're quite there yet. I agree with the rest of your post, and think Yelich will benefit from the new shift rules. His hard grounders will have a lot bigger gaps to get through.

@Robocaller hit the nail on the head. In order to trade Yelich, we'd have to do what the Reds did in getting rid of Suarez, which is add a good player into the deal to offset Yelich's negative value. Unfortunately, his deal relative to his production is so bad that even Burnes might not be enough to offset it. I know some people don't like baseballtradevalues.com, but they have Yelich at -119.3, with Burnes at 78.3. Whoever took the deal would get Burnes for two seasons, but would be stuck with the Yelich deal for years. By BTV's math, we'd need to trade Adames and Burnes along with Yelich just to get zero return (we'd actually get a 0.30 value player in return). For sake of reference, they have Junk (one of the three guys we got back in the Renfroe trade where people have said we got no return) valued at 0.30. But, let's say a team would be willing to take on Yelich's contract if we add Burnes to the deal. Would you trade Burnes for nothing just to get rid of Yelich? I wouldn't. I certainly wouldn't want to trade Adames, Burnes, and Yelich for Junk. We're much better off getting another year out of Burnes and Adames and trading them for a bunch of prospects who can complement Yelich for league minimum. If you can look past the negative trade value due to the contract, Yelich has some value to the team as a player. The contract will keep the team from signing or extending other players, but if he can keep a .350+ OBP, he can help the team win. He'll likely be the LF this year, transitioning to DH as our OF prospects make the way to the MLB team. At some point in the future, the team will probably have to just eat the contract (or most of it in trade), but that's a few years down the road. Until then, we can use this as Exhibit A as to why we need to strongly consider whether it is worth it to "back up the truck" to sign another big money, long-term deal to someone that takes them into their mid-30's... even if we really like that player. Even if that player remains an average-to-above-average MLB player, we'd still wish we could give him away for nothing just to get out of the contract.

I'm not really a big fan of extending guys when they're already well into their arby years and are basically getting full free agent money. The Brewers should be deciding whether to offer Mitchell an extension, and whether they'll do the same to Turang, Frelick, Chourio, etc. over the next few seasons rather than trying to figure out how to work a nine-figure extension into future payrolls. Therefore, I'm more on the side of trading all three of Burnes/Adames/Woodruff prior to them hitting free agency. It probably makes sense to trade away one of them now instead of trying to unload all three in the same offseason. If the Brewers were to extend one of them, I'd probably want it to be Woodruff. As far as Adames, I don't really like the "all or nothing" approach in hitters, and his OBP probably makes him a better 5-6 hitter than top of the order guy. He's a nice player to have on the team, but not someone I'm giddy about locking in to a big-money, multi-year deal. Trade him either now or next offseason, let Turang man SS, and add a bunch of top prospects talent that will be cheap and under control for six years each. Some day maybe I'll pick a big market team as my "second team," and I can get excited about them paying money for a "name I know." As a Brewer fan, I have learned that paying money for that name usually isn't the best use of finite resources. Let someone else sign them to that big contract while we stockpile young talent that plays for a discounted salary. If we trade Adames while he's still in his arby years, we are very likely to get more value out of what we get back than we would receive from holding onto him. If we extend him, he will have zero "surplus value," so we'd have to hope he plays up to his contract while we try to field a team around him without a ton of money to spend. I think part of the reason people like the thought of extending players is because we "should" be able to do it, and signing that extension shows we're one of the "big boys." It sucks to have to watch guys we've cheered for leave to play elsewhere because we're "too cheap." In reality, we're probably better off with young talent and financial flexibility than we are by having a "known player" on the team along with the big, guaranteed contract it took to get him. Extensions signed this late in arby are basically free agent deals, and small market teams will never maintain competitiveness by building through free agent deals.

I don't think we'll sign him, 2023 will be Abreu's age 36 season, so teams looking at signing him will probably be looking at a 1 or 2 year deal. With the Brewers' probable financial constraints heading into next season, I think you are correct that they won't be able to offer him the highest-dollar-value, short-term deal, and he will very likely not be a Brewer. How it could get done: 1) He likes living in Chicago. Milwaukee is close to Chicago. I'm not sure of his family situation, but they could keep their home in Chicago and he could get an apartment in Milwaukee and only be a short drive away. He's made plenty of money, so maybe at this point in his career he'd forgo some money in order to not have to uproot his (and his family's) life. 2) We add a year onto the end of the deal. I don't like doing this, as it's probably going to be a year we'd wish we didn't have him, but this was one of the main reasons Cain signed here. I think that if the team is looking at guaranteeing money into 2025 or beyond, they will first look at extending Burnes, Woodruff or Adames. If those talks are going nowhere, then they may look at signing a bigger-money free agent.

I don't think we'll sign him, 2023 will be Abreu's age 36 season, so teams looking at signing him will probably be looking at a 1 or 2 year deal. With the Brewers' probable financial constraints heading into next season, I think you are correct that they won't be able to offer him the highest-dollar-value, short-term deal, and he will very likely not be a Brewer. How it could get done: 1) He likes living in Chicago. Milwaukee is close to Chicago. I'm not sure of his family situation, but they could keep their home in Chicago and he could get an apartment in Milwaukee and only be a short drive away. He's made plenty of money, so maybe at this point in his career he'd forgo some money in order to not have to uproot his (and his family's) life. 2) We add a year onto the end of the deal. I don't like doing this, as it's probably going to be a year we'd wish we didn't have him, but this was one of the main reasons Cain signed here. I think that if the team is looking at guaranteeing money into 2025 or beyond, they will first look at extending Burnes, Woodruff or Adames. If those talks are going nowhere, then they may look at signing a bigger-money free agent.

The way things stand, Hiura is still a mystery. With the way he was used last year, I was kind of surprised that they offered him arby. Does that mean they envision him playing a big role as 1B/DH/2B, or did they just offer arby so they could flip him for someone in trade? Outside of Hiura, things are starting to shape up, and their plans for Hiura could determine what else they do. The OF looks pretty set with Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and possibly a 5th OF from the AAA group. Adames is SS, Urias will probably play 3B vs RHP and 2B vs LHP, with Brosseau at 3B vs LHP and filling a utility role otherwise. Wong is at 2B vs RHP, Tellez is at 1B. Caratini will fill one catcher spot and we'll probably find another, hopefully a starter. We'll probably pick up a utility guy who can back up SS. So, what do we do with Hiura? If he is going to be our main DH, then we could be pretty much set the way we are, other than picking up a catcher and a utility guy. They didn't seem to trust him last year, so that would be a surprise, but why offer him arby if they're just going to sit him on the bench? He isn't a good defender, so his value as a bench player is limited, and he should only be on the roster if he's going to pair with Tellez in a 1B/DH combo, hopefully finding someone who can fill in vs LHP.

The way things stand, Hiura is still a mystery. With the way he was used last year, I was kind of surprised that they offered him arby. Does that mean they envision him playing a big role as 1B/DH/2B, or did they just offer arby so they could flip him for someone in trade? Outside of Hiura, things are starting to shape up, and their plans for Hiura could determine what else they do. The OF looks pretty set with Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and possibly a 5th OF from the AAA group. Adames is SS, Urias will probably play 3B vs RHP and 2B vs LHP, with Brosseau at 3B vs LHP and filling a utility role otherwise. Wong is at 2B vs RHP, Tellez is at 1B. Caratini will fill one catcher spot and we'll probably find another, hopefully a starter. We'll probably pick up a utility guy who can back up SS. So, what do we do with Hiura? If he is going to be our main DH, then we could be pretty much set the way we are, other than picking up a catcher and a utility guy. They didn't seem to trust him last year, so that would be a surprise, but why offer him arby if they're just going to sit him on the bench? He isn't a good defender, so his value as a bench player is limited, and he should only be on the roster if he's going to pair with Tellez in a 1B/DH combo, hopefully finding someone who can fill in vs LHP.

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being.

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up.

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich. I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties. Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts. I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys. Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-)