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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.
  2. monty57
    I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.
  3. monty57
    I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.
  4. monty57
    Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.
  5. monty57
    Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.
  6. monty57
    Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.
  7. monty57
    Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.
  8. monty57
    They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.
  9. monty57
    They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.
  10. monty57
    I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.
  11. monty57
    I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.
  12. monty57
    On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.
  13. monty57
    On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.
  14. monty57
    BaseballTradeValues.com has Mancini's value at 2.3. That seems low to me, but would mean that we could get him for a prospect like Gray, Lara or Mendez. We have a lot of OF depths in the minors, so if we can get Mancini for one of our "second tier" minor league OFs, I'd pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.
  15. monty57
    BaseballTradeValues.com has Mancini's value at 2.3. That seems low to me, but would mean that we could get him for a prospect like Gray, Lara or Mendez. We have a lot of OF depths in the minors, so if we can get Mancini for one of our "second tier" minor league OFs, I'd pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.
  16. monty57
    For clarification, Milwaukee traded for Renfroe this past offseason. He still has one more year of arbitration remaining. We gave up a couple of prospects, but as of right now, it look like a steal to get rid of Bradley and his contract while getting two years of Renfroe in return. Losing Renfroe will hurt, but hopefully it's nothing serious. Sounds like they're expecting around two weeks.
  17. monty57
    For clarification, Milwaukee traded for Renfroe this past offseason. He still has one more year of arbitration remaining. We gave up a couple of prospects, but as of right now, it look like a steal to get rid of Bradley and his contract while getting two years of Renfroe in return. Losing Renfroe will hurt, but hopefully it's nothing serious. Sounds like they're expecting around two weeks.
  18. monty57
    If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.
  19. monty57
    If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.
  20. monty57
    We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.
  21. monty57
    We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.
  22. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  23. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  24. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  25. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
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