monty57

I'd hate that deal. If we trade Gallardo or Lohse (the guys who will be FAs after next season), I want someone who will be with the team for more than one year. If we can get a good young player with a lot of team control, I'm alright trading a SP away. If not, then we should just hold onto the depth.

Having everyone pitching well is a good thing. It allows for Garza to sit until he is fully healthy rather than rushing back only to re-injure himself. I expect that things will work themselves out, allowing everyone with minor "dings" that pitchers may normally pitch through to heal up. But if everyone is healthy I think Nelson makes the most sense to move to the pen during the season, with Fiers joining him once the playoffs begin.

If we could trade Gallardo for a stud 1B with a lot of team control, or a stud SP who is sitting in AA/AAA almost ready to step in, then I'd be all for it. But I really don't see that happening. It's too risky, and that's not really Melvin/Attanasio's m.o. By risky, I mean that if they make the trade and Fiers doesn't have a good season, or we have a couple of SP injuries and don't have the depth to cover them, fans and the media will look at that trade as the reason we had a down year. Melvin is far more apt to go for the safer route of sticking with what he has in the rotation and using Fiers as "insurance" in the long man role. While that sets us up for big turnover after next year, it probably gives us the best chance next year, which again fits the Melvin/Attanasio m.o. The only real chance I see of Melvin trading an established starter is if Ramirez leaves. In that scenario, I could see Gallardo or Lohse traded for a veteran corner infielder if he can't find a free agent or swing a deal using prospects.

Agreed. This offseason's moves are going to be determined by what happens with Ramirez and Rodriguez. Melvin is at least going to have to address the 1B situation and possibly add a RH reliever. He may also have to address 3B and closer. Upgrading shortstop should be well down his list. I'd either have to be blown away in a deal for a SS or believe that there is absolutely no way to improve anywhere else before I'd set my sights on finding a replacement for Segura. The team could be improved by adding a top SS and making Segura the utility guy/RH part of 2B platoon, but relatively speaking, that improvement would be dwarfed by finding a good first baseman.

But I could see Segura possibly be a non-tender candidate when he hits arbitration in 2016 if he puts up another sub .600 OPS season next year. I agree. His arbitration probably times out to around the time Arcia should be ready to step in. Arcia will probably be a better defender than Segura, so Segura needs to hit to keep his job. I think Segura will be the Brewers' starter in 2015 to see if he can turn things around, and hopefully he does. If not, Arcia is waiting in the wings. We have a big hole at 1B and possibly one at 3B, so finding a stop-gap SS probably isn't high on Melvin's list this offseason. I had a theory one time that a team should NEVER offer contracts EVER to any players. You just have each player for six years and you let them go. This is because arbitration pays each player based on what he did LAST YEAR. So you never overpay. If a player plays wonderfully - he gets paid. If he does not play well - he is paid not well. I think the opposite is a good strategy for smaller market teams. These team-friendly extensions to good pre-arby players allow for them to get talent (like Braun and Lucroy) at a reasonable price for seven or eight years instead of six. Worst case, the player doesn't live up to his ability, but the price tag isn't too high so even if you have to cut the player, you can absorb the cost. Even with hindsight, I wouldn't be upset right now if we had signed Segura to Lucroy's contract. At that price, even if he doesn't start hitting he's still a good utility guy when Arcia (or someone else) takes his starting spot. When weighing the positives of getting good players at a very cheap price for an extra couple of seasons vs the negatives of some players not working out, I think it's a great tool for smaller markets to build a winning franchise. I think Melvin has been good about making sure the offer is team-friendly, and not "backing up the truck" and signing a potentially franchise-crippling contract. It is better to play out the six years than it is to sign a that type of contract.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/free-agent-stock-watch-aramis-ramirez-2.html Here's the article bcd80 referenced. From Cot's: Aramis Ramirez 3b 3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 option -3 years/$36M (2012-14), plus 2015 mutual option signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/13/11 -12:$6M, 13:$10M, 14:$16M, 15:$14M mutual option ($4M buyout) -$6M in 2014 salary deferred, paid in $3M installments 12/15/17 & 12/15/18 -if option is declined, buyout paid in $2M installments 12/15/15 & 12/15/16 Not clear from that if the buyout is paid regardless of who declines or only if it is the Brewers who decline. It seems likely that the Brewers will exercise their side of the option, but if healthy, I think there is a good chance that Ramirez will opt out of his side of the option and pursue a multi-year deal which he will probably get. That's even more likely if he gets the $4MM regardless of who opts out. A couple of years ago, he wanted to stay in the midwest, so it is possible that the multi-year deal will be with Milwaukee, but due to the DH, it makes more sense for an AL team to sign an aging slugger. My guess is that the Brewers exercise their option (hopefully but not certainly getting them out of paying $4MM), while Ramirez declines his option. The Brewers offer a two-year deal in the $20-25MM range, and he signs with an AL team on a three-year deal. If he does stay in the NL, my guess is that he would be a Dodger, who could throw a lot of money at him and absorb that salary if he does "fall off a cliff" from age. If Ramirez does end up elsewhere next year, Melvin has some work to do. The Brewer brass would still feel they have a playoff team, so I would guess they would go after a big name, either in free agency or by trading a starting pitcher.

I would have no problem with Melvin dealing Gallardo or Lohse, but I would be shocked if it happened. They have shown in the past that they would rather play out a good player's final season, and only trade him if the team is out of it, letting him walk in free agency if the team remains in the playoff hunt. In a playoff-hopeful season, it's much safer to go with Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Nelson with Fiers the "long man/6th starter" than it is to trade away a proven starter. The offseason will likely hinge on Ramirez and Rodriguez. If both are coming back, the offseason will be pretty quiet. If neither comes back, Melvin/Attanasio will make one or two "splash" moves, like signing a big named corner IF like Sandoval or Cuddyer.

The Brewers have had "luck" on their side, as the rest of the division has been decimated by injuries while they have {knock on wood} remained relatively healthy. Thankfully they've taken advantage of it, and hopefully it will last for another month and a half.

It's possible he'd be okay, but the chance that he's really bad is big enough that it seems to make more sense just to let him play OF, where we know he plays passable defense.

Well, Lohse will probably get skipped on his next start to rest his ankle. The off day will keep everyone else on regular rest. Garza will certainly be "rested" when he returns. I don't know if Nelson has IP concerns. If so he could be a possibility to get skipped. Otherwise, even though everyone seems to be pitching well, I don't see the Brewers going to a 6-man rotation. Too non-traditional, and it would be blamed by the fans and media every time a pitcher had a bad outing. Having a few "reserve" pitchers step in and pitch well is a good problem to have, so we'll just have to see how they handle it when/if they get everyone healthy at once.

The Central has been hammered by injuries, and the Reds probably lead that list. That's really opened the door for the Brewers, and I hope they can continue to capitalize on it.

When you are rated the worst third baseman in the history of the game, I don't think it was an either/or situation. My memories are of him running in front of a perfectly positioned JJ Hardy only to get enough glove on the ball to make sure JJ couldn't make the routine play. That seemed to happen about once a game. Of course, there was also the ball seeming to find its way right through him and the bad throws, but to me his ability to make other players' defense worse was his stand-out ability. He is a pretty good outfielder, so as long as that continues, let's just keep him there. Outfield requires some speed to chase down balls, and a fairly strong arm, but doesn't require the snap judgement of the infield, and there is more room to allow for athletic ability to correct mistakes. That seems to suit Braun, as his athleticism was almost a negative for him because of his lack of judgement (he could get to balls he should have just let Hardy take). If he were moved to first base, I would hope the coaches would nail his feet to the ground and tell him not to try to go after any grounders to his right for fear that he would end up running straight across the infield to get a grounder headed for Segura and would forget that he needed to be at first base to field throws. That may or may not be hyperbole :-)

I don't trust Brewers prospects, especially pitchers. Then we should probably trade Gallardo, Peralta and Nelson for some other team's prospects ASAP to strengthen our playoff hopes this year. To topic: Regarding the Greinke and Marcum trades, I think that we were going down one of two roads that offseason. If we didn't make those trades, then we would have traded away Fielder and Hart for sure and potentially guys like Weeks. Melvin explored trading Fielder and Hart, but was asking the world in return (two young stud MLB-ready pitchers for Fielder) so he couldn't make a deal and instead went "all in." It's impossible to know how things would've panned out, but if we had traded them, we would have those players to add to the ones already being discussed (Cain, Escobar, Brantley, etc)

At the plate, Segura had two good months, and has had over a year straight of very poor performance. He is still young, so anyone calling for him to be "dumped" is probably overreacting, but if we had another option it would be nice if he could be sent to AAA to straighten things out. We don't have another option, and I don't think acquiring Rollins is the road we should take, so we're just going to have to hope that Segura can turn things around at the MLB level.

As long as this would be for one of the Cubs' shortstop prospects (not Bryant), this move really could make sense for both teams. The Phillies get out from under a big contract while picking up a top-line prospect. It also opens the door to trading Rollins in the offseason for more prospects. Meanwhile, the Cubs get a front-line starter for years to go along with their hitting prospects. Then they go after one of the "big three" FAs (Scherzer, Shields, Lester) and they've got a dominant 1-2 punch. That may not make them favorites for the Central, but they'd definitely be moving up the ladder and it would be one tough division next year.

Segura's numbers aren't so hideous that they should do anything drastic like bring in an aging expensive SS at the end of his career. Sophomore slumps are pretty common. He's a starting caliber SS. Well, based on OPS (.596!!), he's among worst hitters in baseball this year (of players with enough PAs to qualify on ESPN's site). He was phenomenal in April (.985 OPS) and May (.911 OPS) of last year, but has been pretty bad for over a year since then. That's a long stretch of really bad offense. The talent looks to be there, but I wish we could find someone capable of playing SS at the MLB level while Segura "finds himself" in AAA. I don't want to spend prospects and a lot of cash for someone like Rollins (a deal which is very unlikely anyway because MLB-for-MLB player trades after the deadline are rare), but it would be nice if some "league average" vet could be picked up for a mid-tier prospect. Brewers have some potential successors in their system if it gets to that in another year or two. I agree. With everything I said above, I still think it's likely he will be the starter until someone from the minors pushes him off the roster, and that's probably late 2015 or 2016. The team is in first, and their good defense plays a big role in that, so Segura has helped the team in that regard. Meanwhile, this offseason finding a capable 1B is more pressing than upgrading SS. If he has a sub-.600 OPS at this point next year, someone like Arcia should be able to step in and replace him.

He has...in 13 innings. I'm not confident he's going to be able to keep that up as he's lost a couple MPH on his fastball from last year(on all his pitches). I wouldn't count on him doing that for the rest of the year. Meanwhile nearly every contender has been looking for left handed relievers. So while we have two of them, another team with an extra right handed reliever would be ideal. I remember when the "small sample police" used to be all over this site. Now I seem to see a lot of posters who feel that hot streaks will go on forever, making the player untouchable, while a cold streak means we should get rid of the bum while making a drastic move to replace him. Gorzelanny is a capable MLB reliever, and that has value. We're after the trade deadline, so it is unlikely a MLB-player-for-MLB-player deal is done, and since we're not trading him for prospects I'm fine with the likely scenario that he pitches for the Brewers for the rest of the season. However, seeing as how teams always seem to be looking for lefty relievers, if we could use him in a trade that would significantly upgrade somewhere else (RH reliever, 1B) then we should be willing to make the deal.

And the idea of playing Rollins everyday next year in his late 30's while platooning or having Segura play in AAA strikes me as a terrible idea. For the record, I agree. I was just saying that if we were to put in a claim and make a deal for Rollins, health permitting he would be the starting SS for the rest of this year and next. I really want Segura to turn things around. I don't know when or if it will happen, but maybe some time in AAA would help. Unfortunately, we don't have another viable option for SS, so he's just going to have to sink or swim at the MLB level.

Looks like he'll be starting Friday vs Milwaukee.

I don't know if this is relevant here, but this from the Brewers' site: MILWAUKEE -- The Brewers and Pirates made a Minor League trade Thursday that sent right-hander Jay Jackson to Milwaukee's Triple-A team for cash considerations. Jackson, who cracked Baseball America's top 100 prospects list prior to the 2010 season, was 5-4 with a 4.89 ERA in 25 games (12 starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis this year, with 87 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old will now pitch for a Nashville Sounds team that has been losing arms lately to the big league club. Jackson originally was a ninth-round Draft pick of the Cubs in 2008.

No way they'd only give Rollins 200-300 PAs while Segura starts everyday. If you make the move, you're doing it to get a starting SS for this pennant race and for next year. This year, you'd probably send Segura to AAA. In 2015, Rollins is your SS, Gennett is your 2B, and if Segura is on the MLB roster he's the utility guy/RH part of the 2B platoon. He would replace Weeks in terms of salary, so if this move were made, we probably wouldn't be able to do much else in the offseason (i.e. finding a 1B) as I doubt we'll have a significantly higher payroll in 2015 than we have now.

Not really. He has left Boston fans questioning exactly what he specifically actually did for them, and Cubs fans aren't exactly happy with the state of the MLB roster. The Cubs are indeed building some serious hitting talent, and they will try and time their development and low cost years with picking up high priced starting pitching. It can work if they are willing to go all in on a Big three and outbid teams like LA/Boston/NYY. If not, well, we have seen how that goes. I do love their ability to spot electric talent, unlike the Brewers who are driving me insane. Short drive, but still. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/ No World Series victories from 1918 - 2003. Three World Series victories in the past decade. In today's world where many have the attention span of a gnat, I suppose some Boston fans (in a down year after a World Series win) are indeed questioning "what he specifically actually did for them," but the quick & easy answer to that is that he put together the framework from which they could have sustainable success. He turned around Boston, and then took over a Cubs franchise in a total mess. No one knows what success he will have, but it looks like they are about ready to turn the corner and become a franchise stocked with talent from top to bottom that can sustain success for the long-term.

Yeah, when you've got a guy with a slash line of .237 / .270 / .326 / .596, you don't go out of your way to find him more playing time. Segura seems likeable, he's exciting, and we need to prove that we did well when trading away Greinke, but outside of a hot start last season, he's been horrible at the plate. If we had any alternative, I'd have no problem sending him back to AAA. I don't think I'd go after an aging, short-term, high cost fix like Rollins, but it would be nice to have a SS that wasn't a complete black hole at the plate.

Potentially good plan if you forget Theo has built 3 last place teams in a row Kind of understating what Epstein has done in his career.

The only difference is that the Brewers don't have the revenue stream to sign front-line free agents or to extend their superstar players (except Braun who willfully signed well under value). bcd80 summed it up. If they get in on guys like Scherzer, Lester, Shields this offseason, they can go from "lot of young position talent / no pitching" to "contenders for the division" as soon as next year. I'd guess Bryant is up in September, and they'll open next season with an infield of Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant. These guys could all be perennial All-Stars, and two of them are already established Major Leaguers. It's likely Baez and Bryant get early extensions like Castro and Rizzo did, so we'll be seeing that lineup for a long time. It really depends on whether they want to give their young guys one more year or if they start to get pitching this offseason. I think if they decide to go for it this year, they'll probably try to get two of the guys listed above, and that could be scary. Throw in that the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds are all good MLB teams with strong farms, and it really makes it important for the Brewers to hold on this year. It'll be pretty tough to win the division going forward.