monty57

I think Mitchell and Frelick will both be up. One in CF and one in RF. Taylor should be the backup at all three OF positions. I’d prefer to have a better defender at 3B, it’ll just depend on what’s available. It doesn’t look like there’s a lot. Urias put up a wRC+ of 110, so he’s fine offensively. He’s just a better defender at 2B. Toro is another option. He was a highly-regarded prospect, but it hasn’t yet translated to the majors.

After yesterday's trade, the team is looking a lot closer to the finish line. I have called for a "real" 3B for a while. Urias' wRC+ was 110 last year, so it isn't easy to find an offensive upgrade there, but he's not good defensively on the left side of the infield. If we got a real third baseman, Urias would slide to his natural position of 2B, keeping Turang in AAA to start the season. @jay87shot brought up a really good point on Turner, who is one of, if not the only guy who would improve the position offensively over Urias. He only played 66 games in the field last year. He did play 143 in 2021, so maybe he could still man the position on a daily basis, but if not, we wouldn't have a role for him since we have Winker as our everyday DH. I'm leaning towards believing that we're close to done with position player moves, and I like our lineup with Contreras, Tellez, Turang, Adames, Urias, Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick in the field and Winker at DH. I think the team has done a lot to alleviate worries about the "position player group." I do think we'll see more moves in the bullpen. I think they've done an adequate job of bringing in new arms for the bullpen, but I expect that they'll focus any remaining money they have to sign a decent "proven" bullpen arm as a setup man. I thought going into the offseason that they may trade one of "the big three," but they have added talent around them to put together what looks to be a pretty good team. There will be a lot of big trades next off season, but this year looks to be a lot of fun to watch.

That's true. Just because I want all of the prospects to succeed doesn't mean they will. Plus, there will be injuries so it's nice to have some talent tucked away in AAA for when that happens. On that note, it is nice that the prospects in question have shown success at AAA, and we're not just hoping on guys who have a good year in A-ball. The chances of success for a guy who has already worked his way through the minors with some success are higher than a "high upside" guy who still has to make the jump to AA/AAA.

Not really, for extended periods of the season last year, Counsell seemed to forget he was on the roster.

I'm missing something here. I agree with you on Winker. I think he played injured last year, as the previous two years he was one of the best hitters in baseball. If he's healthy, I hope for closer to the 140-ish wRC+ guy he was prior to last year. If that happens, he will be the DH nearly every day. That means Yelich will be our everyday LF. Unless things go really wrong this year, and Winker is traded at the deadline, Yelich's transition to DH will be in 2024, not 2023. That leaves CF and RF. I think that will be Mitchell and Frelick, with Taylor as the backup. I guess it's possible they call up Wiemer and leave Frelick in AAA, but one of Mitchell, Frelick or Wiemer will very likely start the year in AAA, and I'd guess that will be Wiemer. Wiemer will get his debut when someone gets hurt, but I think his shot at a starting role will be 2024, when Yelich likely moves to DH. His opportunity may be limited, as Chourio will likely be in the majors at some point in 2024, and at the rate he's going, none of Frelick, Mitchell or Wiemer will block him. My guess at that time will be that Chourio will play nearly everyday, and Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer will split time at the other two spots, but a lot can happen between now and then. To topic, we will still have our catcher position locked down, because we just filled that for the next five years! That we cleared up the aforementioned logjam to some degree in order to fill that catching spot made a lot of sense. We should now have our entire OF, Catcher, and shortstop all filled for the next six years with talented young players. We still have a lot of people set to leave after '24, but we're starting to see the guys who will be the "new core" going forward. I like it when a team operates with a long-term outlook.

There is no reason for Hiura to be on the roster. I was surprised they offered him arbitration, as I saw no role for him after last season, and there is really no spot for him with the additions they've made so far this off-season. C - Contreras 1B - Tellez 2B - Turang SS - Adames 3B - Urias LF - Yelich CF - Mitchell/Frelick RF - Mitchell/Frelick DH - Winker Bench Caratini (backup catcher) Brosseau (1B/2B/3B who hits LHP well) Taylor (RH bat who plays all three OF positions) Toro or Hiura A bad defender who should only be used to pinch hit vs RHP doesn't seem too valuable, especially when 6 of the 9 regular starters are left-handed hitters. Hopefully, they'll find someone who will take him in trade, even if we get little in return, just to clear the $2M or so we'd otherwise have to pay him. I would much prefer Brosseau and Toro on the bench over Hiura.

I thought maybe it was just rose-colored glasses, but I liked Ruiz since we acquired him. He's fast, and apparently re-worked his swing which led to vastly improved offensive numbers. He was moved off of second base because of "heavy hands," so he's still raw in the OF, but scouts seem to think he should be able to stick at CF once he gets more experience there. That said, I still had him as our fourth best OF of the AAA bunch. Frelick and Mitchell are also high OBP guys with speed, and they have a longer track record of good offensive numbers, while there's a chance that Ruiz just had one fluky good season. Wiemer is more of a power guy, but he was also probably ahead of Ruiz on the depth chart. Meanwhile, our "potential Juan Soto-talent" is sitting in AA and it looks like he'll be in Milwaukee fairly soon. Oh, and we have a high-priced LF in Milwaukee who isn't going anywhere. So, Ruiz is a talented prospect I like, but he didn't have a clear shot to the majors in Milwaukee. It made sense to trade him. That Arnold was able to get a 24-year-old who plays the position of Milwaukee's greatest need, and was an All Star in his rookie season is amazing. We needed a catcher... check. We needed a power RH bat... check. We needed someone who could hit LHP... check. We need pre-arby guys with team control... check. Oh, we also need bullpen help, so Arnold had them throw in a couple relievers. I hope Ruiz has a nice career, but even if he does, this was a trade Arnold had to take advantage of. The Brewers are a much better team now and for the next few years. Well done.

I think the question is whether Frelick, Turang, and Winker can put up similar WAR to Renfroe, Wong, and McCutchen.

Here's an article about the Reds being loaded with young infield prospect talent, and looking to trade for young OF prospect talent. I know that teams oftentimes don't want to do inter-division trades, especially prospect-for-prospect as that could end up looking bad for a long time. Other than that, this seems like a perfect scenario. Chourio and De La Cruz would be staying where they are, but this could be a swap of ready-to-contribute "Top 100" guys like a Mitchell-for-Marte type deal, a blocked MLB-ready prospect deal using Wiemer or Ruiz, or a lower minors deal like Lara-for-Acosta. Both teams would be dealing from an area of depth for to an area of need. What are everyone's thoughts? View full rumor

There are 30 teams in MLB, so if everything was 100% equal, every team should win once every 30 years. Since MLB accepts that some teams get a decided advantage over others, it's a minor miracle that any small revenue teams have won since the dawn of free agency. I would love to win a World Series, but with the system set the way it is, I'm happy we've been playing winning baseball and getting some "fake playoff spots" recently.

I'll have to disagree. If Stearns had "made a serious run in 22-23," that would have meant selling long-term assets for short-term assets, and maybe signing a deal or two that would be good for a couple years (when Stearns was here), and then bad for a couple years (after Stearns left). That would have "screwed over" the Brewers and Matt Arnold. He'd be taking on an aging team with no farm and some bloated contracts, leaving him with little to work with. Instead, Stearns rebuilt the farm while they were winning at the MLB level. Arnold is left with a much-improved farm system with talent at all levels, multiple star players at the MLB level who can either be extended or are phenomenal trade chips to add more young talent to the roster, and only has one big contract on the books, offering him financial flexibility going forward. There seems to be a lot of short-sightedness on this site lately. Setting someone up for one decent year and then a massive rebuild is what many exiting GMs do, and they get out the door before the collapse. That is screwing over a franchise. I think Stearns set Arnold and the Brewers up very nicely, and look forward to winning baseball in Milwaukee for years to come.

@Redd Vencher hit most of the points I had when I read the article. I think the base premise is off, in that I don't think the goals listed were necessarily the goals of the front office going into this offseason. 1) They aren't clearing money to extend guys. They're clearing money because they were over budget last year and were hit with a significant reduction in ticket sales. They probably going to have a lower budget this year until they see that ticket sales come back. The two moves have combined to clear around $10M from the '23 budget. 2) I guess this depends on the definition of "firepower." As has been noted often, the offense in '22 was in the top third of MLB (near the bottom of the top third, but still above average). The problem as I see it was that they had too much "all or nothing" which made them streaky. I think they're trying to get more consistent, which could be done by getting guys who strike out less and get on base more. 3) I'll add one. I think they want to get their rookies on the field. First, they're talented and deserve to be there. Second, they're pre-arby, so they'll play for league minimum. Third, they're facing a big turnover in the roster soon as all of their arby guys are traded or become free agents, so they need their young guys to get some experience before this exodus. Finally, and probably most importantly, the rookies in question are all lower K/higher OBP guys. Brandon Nimmo just got a monster deal after stars who are much bigger than him signed even bigger deals. We have a group of guys who are above-average MLB players offensively (based on things like wRC+), so we won't be able to bring in upgrades to our position players by outbidding other teams on the open market. Thankfully, we have a group of MLB-ready guys who are ready to step in to complement our pitching. If we had to pay open market prices for Frelick and Mitchell, we already wouldn't be able to afford them this offseason. The pitching, which is supposed to be where we dominate, is the reason we just missed the playoffs last year. If they're healthy and play to their ability, we're going to be a playoff team in '23 as long as our position players continue to be around average, and they're a little better than that. So, the front office has trimmed around $10M from payroll, while holding onto their pitching, maintaining a roughly equal offense "on paper," upgrading the defense, and opening room for the rookies. All this while other teams are signing players for $20-$40M/year to try to get better.

Contreras would obviously have been a nice addition for the Brewers. They need a catcher, and they need a RH bat, so he would have fit nicely. This is an acquisition which will help the Cardinals, especially for the next few seasons. The Brewers really aren't in a position to add a multi-year, bigger-money deal. I believe they went into this offseason with 18 guys in arbitration, so a good chunk of their team will be free agents in the next 2-3 years. Their first priority is whether they will extend any of these guys. Signing someone like Contreras would pretty much end the thought of any substantial extensions. Any additions we make should either be young guys with a lot of team control, who will still be around when our current arby guys are gone, or one-year stopgaps who can help the team win games in '23, and will then be off the books. "Maybe next year" is a euphemism that is said with a mocking tone in sports, but maybe next year the Brewers will be in a position to add a longer-term deal. It's probably more "Maybe the year after next." At that point, we will have either extended or traded most/all of our current arby guys, and should have a lot of pre-arby talent at the MLB level. The end of the Yelich deal won't seem quite so far away, and we could probably fit a quality veteran in with the young stars, some of which will hopefully accept Peralta/Ashby-style extensions. But not now. A long-term, big-money deal that isn't an extension of one of our current players just doesn't make sense at this point.

Just watch that arm for that late Spring Training injury that will take a month or so to rehab in the minors before it surprisingly gets better just as the Brewers have an opening in the 'pen.

This sounds like they're just trying to find a way to be stupid. There is a system that should be 100% accurate, and they are admitting that by accepting the challenge that is spit out by the computer as absolute. They are currently accepting a model that has proven to be far less than 100% accurate, and has had some effect (oftentimes significant) on the outcome of every game ever played. Per your description, they would stick with the inferior model for no apparent reason, and use the far superior model only sporadically, when the umpires made such an egregious error that a team decides to use the superior model to trump his bad call. If the superior model were to be used, there would theoretically be no need for challenges, which only serve to lengthen games, which according to the current commissioner is the biggest problem in baseball.

Well, the luxury tax threshold is $233M for 2023. Cots has the Padres at an estimated $205M opening day payroll, but a Competitive Balance tax payroll at $229,984,048. It looks like they're trying to stay under it, so I'd guess they thought Judge would be a good enough player to be willing to pay the tax. Otherwise, it doesn't look like the Padres will be making many more moves with the roughly $3M they have left to spend to stay under the threshold.

No, that's not a fact. Making moves, especially big money, long-term moves, simply to "keep up with the Joneses" is a bad way to run a franchise. They should keep running the team the way they have, which has produced the 9th most wins since 2010, and 9th most wins since 2015 while sitting in the smallest market in baseball. I think that in the long-term, St. Louis is a good team for the Brewers to emulate. But that is operating with a long-term plan, not making a short-term, emotionally-charged move that could greatly hamper the long-term strategy.

Trying to stay under the luxury tax and not having money are two different things. The luxury tax penalties grow if you stay over the tax for a series of years. Every so often (I believe every three years) teams need to get below the threshold for a season which "resets the clock" so they can go back over in future years. I would guess that the Padres knew that they were going to be over, potentially significantly over, for the next few seasons, so they wanted to start 2023 as "year one."

That's always a possibility, but it's also a possibility that one or both of the prospects turn into starting MLB players and provide a lot of value to the Brewers. That is why while it's fun to discuss, we shouldn't get too emotional about a trade at the time it happens. The net outcome of the trade won't be known for years.

Don't remember who, but a while back a poster stated that the ownership group bought up a lot of the real estate and businesses around the park, so they get additional revenue on game days from that. Having a good team and selling out makes them a lot of money. I remember that it started a discussion on whether the Brewers could do that, given Selig chose to build Miller Park where he did, are rather than building downtown.

That puts him right on track with the Burnes, Woodruff, Adames group. We're going to see a big outflow of talent, so I can see why the Brewers want to get some of the prospects some experience this year.

All players have some degree of "sreakiness," but Bell is extremely streaky. It's a lot of fun when he's hot, and the Nationals parlayed that well last year by getting more in trade than he's worth, but he can really hurt you when he's off. Given the choice, if two players are going to end up with similar stats, I'd take the guy who has less variance (highs and lows). The Brewers already have too much of that, so even if the contracts were the same, I probably wouldn't trade Rowdy for Bell straight-up. The Brewers are full of guys who are slightly above average, and Tellez fits into this. Everyone wants to see a big upgrade, but Rowdy and others are good enough players that bringing in an upgrade, whether through free agency or trade, is expensive. As we see here, spending $16.5M/year for a free agent wouldn't really upgrade our team.

Judge is a very good (roughly 5 WAR) player who put up one of the best seasons in MLB history (11.4 WAR). I don't know how players are able to double their production in a contract year, but I hope Winker finds some of that magic this year. Judge turns 31 in April, so this is the second contract this offseason that takes a player into his 40's. I guess the lessons learned after the steroids era have been forgotten.

Where did you find that? I used Cot's, and they have him with four years of arbitration. That's also where I got the estimated salary. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N0fXQJkUL2e02XkezJt-64eJv7WB2CAngVKrM_RAHlA/edit#gid=1520401900