monty57

I figured around $1.25M in my spreadsheet, but I just rounded in the post because I didn't think it was all that meaningful. He's not going to be overly-expensive if they plan on using him, but he will be overly expensive if they plan on sitting him on the bench. In fact, I don't really see him as a good bench player because of his poor defense. They need to decide if he's a good enough hitter to DH, because if he's not, then he's not going to be an asset to the team. I don't know why you say "nonsense" other than to degrade other posters. His starts prior to being sent down were almost exclusively against LHP, when he wasn't hitting LHP, but he was hitting well against RHP. Even though McCutcheon hadn't hit well against RHP since 2019, he got cemented into the DH role, including getting every start against RHP. I don't like strikeouts either, but Hiura's also walking at over a 10% clip, and he's barreling up balls when he makes contact. He is doing some things well after making his adjustments this past offseason, so I don't get the laser-like fixation on K rate, as if that is the only thing that matters. I'd like to see it brought down, and I think there is a good chance it will come down if he gets regular PAs vs RHP rather than getting most PAs against LHP, and only facing RHP when the high-K relievers into the game. This tidbit is from MLB's own site: "K/9 rate tells us a lot, but it's important to note the difference between starters and relievers within the statistic. Because relievers generally pitch for such a short period of time and aren't as concerned about conserving pitches, they can throw with higher intensity for each batter. As a result, relief-pitcher K/9 numbers are generally higher than those of starting pitchers." That seems to be pretty obvious, but it doesn't seem to be recognized in this thread. The amazing thing to me is that while put in a position to lose, Hiura has still been able to put up such good numbers against these hard-throwing RH relievers. Yes, the HR rate is unsustainably high, but so is the K rate. Give him some time, and he may just prove to be a decent MLB hitter... at least against right-handed pitching. If he can prove that, he will not only help this year's team, which seems to be in need of some help right now, but he will show that he can help them in the future. The upside is really good, while the downside is that past-his-prime McCutcheon will lose some PAs before leaving this offseason. Really, what's the harm?

Since this is a Hiura thread, I'll relate this to him. McCutcheon is on a one-year deal, so he's gone after the season. He certainly isn't hitting like someone who needs to be in the lineup every day. These two factors lead me to believe that McCutcheon is a prime candidate to lose some PAs going forward. The "unsustainable" Hiura is continuing to sustain, even with limited playing time and a trip to AAA. At some point, he needs to start eating into other players' PAs. DH is the best place for Hiura, but his ability to play (to some degree) 1B, 2B and LF should allow Counsell to find some regular PAs for Hiura to see what he can do. I was one of his biggest proponents early in the year, got frustrated at his lack of PT and figured the Brewers had given up on him, but since he didn't get traded and is still here, let him play. He could help out this year, and he can also prove one way or the other whether he is worth offering arby and paying him a little more to be on the roster next year. To the thoughts about Renfroe, having him and Hiura on the roster next year could save the team from having to go out and sign "another McCutcheon" next year. Renfroe would be the normal RF, but he could play some DH as we have plenty of other OFs. Hiura would be the normal DH, but could get PAs around the field when other players need a "day off" at DH. I doubt the Brewers will go into the season with two rookie starting OFs, and I think we'll start a rookie in CF, so Renfroe is a nice "transition" player who can be the starter in RF until and unless someone else forces him out. Then, one of our current prospects will be the RF starter in 2024. Of course, if someone wants to really pay up in trade for Renfroe this offseason, I'd be fine with that. I just don't think that we'd just DFA him to save money. With Hader gone, Wong likely to be gone, and Turang and one of the CFs likely to be ready, we should have a some extra payroll room even with Renfroe on the roster. Even moreso if Hiura can be our DH for around $1M.

Yeah, teams might get a bit upset if one of their scouts made their reports public.

I probably went a bit too far on the "Stearns guy" vs "Melvin guy" stuff. I kind of drifted off from my original point, which is that while Gasser and Kelly have similar stats in some regards, Gasser's K:BB ratio is about twice that of Kelly, and that's pretty important. They both strike guys out, but Kelly walks too many. That, along with the need to add Kelly to the 40-man roster or risk losing him makes it understandable why they would trade for Gasser while trading away Kelly. I am in no way calling Kelly a bad prospect. To the contrary, he had to be good enough to get 2.5 years of Bush, who was pitching well this year. I wish the best for Kelly in the future, but I sure hope Bush makes the trade worthwhile for the Brewers.

He could, but if they didn't do it when McCutchen was in a month-long slump earlier in the year, I don't think it's likely they will do it now. I think he'll get some starts in a "super utility" role in LF, 1B, 2B and DH. I just hope they give him additional starts against RHP, and don't try to force the "square peg into a round hole" by starting him mainly against lefties.

The reports I have read on Gasser was that he wasn't high on the prospect charts largely because of a FB that topped out around 90 MPH. During the 2020 Covid lockdown, he committed himself to working out and that added velocity and tightened up his slider. He now throws 93 regularly and can hit the mid-90's, and he has a "plus" slider, with a change-up that could turn into a plus pitch. This year, he has thrown 90.1 innings, and has a 115:28 K:BB ratio (4.11 K's per every BB). I've always like this ratio for pitchers, as K's are really helpful to pitchers, while walks are really harmful. Kelly has thrown 91 innings, with a 119:52 ratio (about 2.29 K's per BB). For better or worse, the Brewers seem to be looking for hitters that make contact, play good defense, and have good eyes at the plate, and pitchers with good command and the ability to strike guys out. Melvin liked hitters with one "plus, plus" tool (usually power), and pitchers with big arms with questionable command, Stearns does not. Kelly would probably have been more of a "Melvin guy," trying to harness the big arm and fix the command. Gasser is more of a "Stearns guy," already having the command and polishing up his game. It doesn't make one good and one bad, but Stearns is the guy pulling the strings these days. They are both prospects, so their is risk to both. I don't follow prospects closely, so I have to rely on what reports say, and yes, I have to have faith in the Brewers. Stearns called Gasser something to the effect of "the best pitching prospect in baseball," so that was kind of surprising. This goes beyond simply talking a guy up. Stearns inherited a franchise that looked doomed to a long rebuild process, and quickly turned it into a playoff contender, and he has been slowly turning a bad farm into a good one. It looks like he feels Gasser has a better shot at helping the Brewers at the MLB level than Kelly does.

Good point. Davis has 0.6 WAR, proving positive offensively and defensively in somewhat limited playing time this year, so he has helped the team.

There were rumors that Narvaez was being discussed, so I think you’re correct that they only held onto three catchers to see if they could get something for one of them at the deadline. I will also be interested in seeing what they do with Hiura. Does he have value or doesn’t he? I hope he tears the cover off the ball and proves he belongs. Either way, he can answer some questions regarding his future with the Brewers.

I don’t mind it if the prospects are good. Calling up Frelick or Ruiz is different than calling up a AAAA journeyman.

We received “assets” as well. I think you are greatly overvaluing Hader specifically, and relief pitchers in general. Plus, you are glossing over the fact that we received Rogers, who over the course of his career is only 0.31 WAR/season behind Hader. He’s really good, and we don’t have to pay him this year because the Twins are covering his salary (money has value too). I’d take a free Rogers over a $10M Hader any day of the week. Hader is going to get something like $15M next year in Abby, so he gets very little “surplus value” for his final year. After what Ruiz and Gasser did this year, if they were in our system already, people would be calling them untouchable. Any prospect has risk, but I think we got pretty good value for one season of a relief pitcher. Will everyone who dislikes this trade feel better if Ruiz and Gasser are in some reporters’ Top Prospect lists to start next year? I guess time will tell.

This might be going out on a limb, but maybe the Brewers like the prospects we got back, and maybe they put more into evaluating them than simply doing a quick scan of BA’s Top 100 list. The difference between Rogers and Hader for less than half a season is negligible. Sterns values six years of Ruiz and Gasser as being more valuable than one year of Hader, so much so that he was willing to eat a $5M “negative value” salary to make the deal happen. Also, we needed some payroll relief for next year, and we now get the roughly $15M we would have spent on Hader to use elsewhere. Stearns’ knowledge of these guys is far more than mine, so I am very excited to have Ruiz and Gasser in the system. My only real question in this whole thing is “why isn’t Ruiz in Milwaukee?” I want to see this kid play and Davis shouldn’t be holding him back.

So Rogers becomes our left-handed setup man with Williams closing. It's a step back, but not nearly as big as it could be, as Rogers is one of the better relievers in baseball. He will be gone after this seasom Lamet is probably a multi-inning reliever with what appears to be two more years of arbitration remaining. Hopefully the Brewers see something there and he regains what made him a good starter early in his career. Since Hader's early days, the Brewers have done well by having a solid multi-inning guy or two in the 'pen, so he could provide some value in the "Suter role" Ruiz will probably take over Davis' spot on the roster and split time with Taylor in CF. Nothing to get too excited about, but should be a modest upgrade. Gasser seems to be moving up the charts a bit even though he's already 23. If he has indeed added a few MPH to his fastball and has a plus slider and change-up, he could be something. We didn't get a "can't miss" prospect, but since Rogers was in the deal along with two other guys who will likely be on the MLB roster, we probably couldn't have expected one.

MLB.com on Ruiz: Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40 A $100,000 signee by the Royals in July 2015, Ruiz was moved to the Padres two years later in a six-player deal at the Trade Deadline. Despite splitting time between two orgs, he managed to win 2017 Arizona League MVP honors after hitting .350/.395/.602 with 34 extra-base hits and 26 stolen bases in 52 games. Outside the stolen base totals, he never quite matched that production at the full-season levels and fell out of San Diego’s Top 30 last year after hitting just .249/.328/.411 with a 98 wRC+ in 84 games at Double-A San Antonio. He returned to the Texas League to begin 2022 and bounced back incredibly well in the first two months of the season. Ruiz has always shown promising bat speed and decent raw power from the right side. However, Padres officials had been concerned about his swing decisions on pitches outside of the zone, leading to either strikeouts or weak contact. The Dominican Republic native has worked with San Antonio staff in 2022 to cut down on the chase rate, causing his walk rate to nearly double while he’s done a better job of lifting the ball on contact. Ruiz has the speed to provide value, and he puts it to good use on the basepaths. His 158 steals from 2016-21 ranked sixth-most in the Minors over that span. Those wheels have helped him move from second to the outfield, and he’s been focused entirely on center to begin 2022. He’s still rough around the edges there with enough speed to make up for mistakes. Still only 23, Ruiz’s breakout could be enough to push him into a utility Major League role within the next two seasons.

From MLB.com's rankings: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Gasser spent his 2018 freshman season at New Mexico, then transferred to Delta JC and led California junior college pitchers in wins (14-0, 2.38 ERA) and strikeouts (139 in 102 innings). He still didn't get drafted in 2019 and didn't make much of an impression in 2020 after transferring to Houston. He opened eyes when he pitched seven scoreless innings against Texas right-hander and Tigers pick Ty Madden last February, and he ended up going 71st overall to the Padres, with whom he signed for slot value ($884,200) in 2021. Gasser's pro debut was brief -- 15 innings in rookie ball and Low-A -- but his stuff exceeded expectations and excited Padres officials. After previously operating in the upper 80s, Gasser's fastball ticked up last season and now sits in the low-to-mid 90s with running action. His slider has added power as well, sitting in the low 80s and showing flashes of becoming a plus pitch. Gasser also throws an above-average changeup, which surprised some in the Padres organization. The right-hander didn't use the pitch much as an amateur, but it's shown well so far in his pro career and could become a truly effective offering. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Gasser doesn't have a massive frame or overpowering stuff. However, he commands all his pitches well and knows how to pitch. He effectively moves the ball around the zone and could develop into an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.

What are they going to do with Lamet? Started his career as a promising starter, but hasn't had much success as a reliever in the past two seasons. If I recall correctly, there were some injury issues. Is he slated for a "Multi-inning reliever" role, or does he give them options to potentially trade a starter? He's kind of a weird add-on to the trade, but I hope they have a plan to make him a valuable addition to the roster.

Better be some damn good prospects.

Caratini: 172 PA, .231/.355/.413, .342 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR Severino: 20 PA, .235/.350/.353, .318 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR Narvaez: 213 PA, .235/.324/.364, .306 wOBA, 94 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, free agent after this season What sucks is that Severino won't be eligible for the playoffs. Otherwise, the move would be to keep Caratini and Severino and trade Narvaez. I think that their desire to keep Caraini and Severino around for next year is the reason Hiura is in AAA. That and the fact that they need a backup CF, and Brosseau hits LHP really well. In the Brewers' minds, those things trump the pluses Hiura brings to the table. If Hiura wasn't complete inept against LHP, he'd probably still be on the MLB team, as they really need to get better against LHP.

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

His mechanics.

OPS is a good "generic" stat to get a quick overview of how a hitter is doing. From the day I first saw it, I figured that its biggest flaw is that it overvalues SLG relative to OBP when OBP is more important than SLG. My preferred "look at one thing only" stat would be wRC+ or wOBA. I generally use wRC+ because it's based on 100 as "league average," so it's really easy to use. I believe that those who say "batting average doesn't matter" are fooling themselves. Batting average is the biggest and most important component of OBP, and OBP is about the most important thing in baseball. Of course batting average is important. It is extremely important. It just doesn't tell the whole story. For that, use wRC+. However, any stat has to be taken with a big grain of salt when the sample size is too small. That applies to OPS, OBP, and yes, to K rate. I understand that Hiura rightfully has a hill to climb this year to earn playing time, and I think there is a good chance that he will just never be a good enough hitter to earn full-time duty. When people say his numbers are inflated due to unsustainable things like BABIP and HR rate, they're right. My biggest complaint this year was that he made some adjustments, looked like a different player than he was in 2020 & 2021, was hitting the ball hard against right-handed pitchers, and the Brewers only started him against lefties. Most of his PAs against righties came against relievers, and even though he rarely got a chance to face them, he still did pretty well against them. He did strike out too much, but I'd bet that if the only lefty someone faced was Hader, his strikeout rates would be absurdly high as well. I know that his numbers weren't going to be as good as the were (he had a wRC+ vs RHP of 244 at one point!) but I thought he should play to see what was real and what was not. Hiura may indeed strike out too much to ever be effective, but I just wanted to see him get more PAs vs RHP when he was hot. Especially considering that at the time McCutchen was in a woefully bad slump and probably could've used a few days off. That didn't happen, and if Hiura isn't going to get a shot when he has a 244 wRC+ and his "competition" is 0-for-May, he's probably never going to get a shot. That's why I think that everyone involved will be best served if Hiura is traded in the next few days for someone that will help the Brewers. The Brewers will get someone they'll use, and Hiura can "sink or swim" elsewhere. As to "batting order doesn't matter," that has equal credibility with "batting average doesn't matter," but this post is already too long.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.