monty57

Steamer projections: Josh Bell: .257 / .348 / .440 / .788 wRC+ 123 (2 years, $33M) Rowdy Tellez: .247 / .326 / .486 / .812 wRC+ 123 (2nd of 4 arby years, estimated $3.75M) Jesse Winker: .250 / .355 / .425 / .780 wRC+ 122 (1 year, $8.25M) Bell's played a little OF, but he's basically a 1B/DH guy. Since Winker appears to be our DH, and Rowdy our 1B, I don't really see that he would have been an improvement over what we already have at a much cheaper salary.

There are teams for which the luxury tax is a hinderance that keeps them from spending hundreds of millions more on payroll, so they just rake in profits even after signing deals like this, and there are teams for which the luxury tax is a pipe dream, and they're breakeven with a payroll that isn't close to the luxury tax. As long as MLB feels that this is a fair system, then fans of small-revenue teams just have to grin and bear it. We can't operate like big market teams. We have to trade away most of our good players when they near free agency and stockpile as much young talent as we can. Verlander, Turner and deGrom combine to make more than our entire team. There's no way we can sign/extend good players and spend our way to a title. The length of this deal isn't something I'd recommend, but the money isn't anything out of the ordinary for top players today. It's just something that small market teams can't match. But, we'll still get bombarded with stories about how Burnes can't understand why the Brewers aren't offering him an extension, and how Lauer is upset that the Brewers won't "try to win."

Yes he is. That is why I'm fine with Turang in AAA to start the season. Even if we go with our current roster and don't make any additional moves, we could go with Tellez at 1B, Urias at 2B, Adames at SS, and Toro/Brosseau at 3B to start the season. We'd probably need to pick up an inexpensive vet who could backup shortstop. Turang would be called up if Adames missed an extended period. I wouldn't get upset if Turang is starting at 2B or 3B, but I also wouldn't be upset if they go with the above scenario, or pick up another 3B, leaving Turang at AAA. He'll get his shot, and I wouldn't mind saving an extra year of service time.

For me, it isn't so much the power, it's that he's supposed to be a plus defender at SS. You're willing to give up some offense to have a great defensive SS. Not so much at 3B. As I mentioned previously, if we have another option, I'd be fine with keeping Turang in AAA until a spot opens up at SS. Adames is probably only here for the '23 season. If Adames gets extended, then you find a spot for Turang. Otherwise, there's no reason to force the square peg into the round hole.

When I first saw who was in this trade, I immediately thought that Toro was the new 3B with Urias moving to 2B. I don't follow the AL too closely, and just remember Toro as a top prospect. Then I read some posts and looked at Toro's early MLB numbers (913 PA, .206/.276/.345/.621, 75 wRC+) and thought maybe that wouldn't be the case. Steamer projects him for a .241/.313/.409/.722 103 wRC+ line. If he could do that and play decent 3B defense, then he could be our starter. He hasn't hit very well so far in his career, but has hit righties better than lefties, so he could pair well with Brosseau. It will be interesting to see which way the Brewers go. I wouldn't be averse to keeping Turang down in AAA. Save a year's service time, as he will very likely be the starting SS when Adames is traded away, which seems likely prior to the '24 season. Toro seems to be the throw-in to this trade, but if he can live up to the potential he had a couple seasons ago, this trade would be a home run win for the Brewers, and he could be our starting 3B for the next handful of seasons.

I agree, and would add that next year we probably will have to trade some bigger names. It will be nice going into '24 if guys like Mitchell, Frelick and Turang already have a full season under their belt, and maybe some other guys (Gasser, Wiemer, Small) will have some additional MLB experience as well. I'm generally optimistic, but if we held onto Renfroe and Wong for this season, they would be walking as free agents at the same time we'd be looking at trading a host of other players. Most of our current potential rookie starters would still be potential rookie starters. At some point, we need to give a chance to our top prospects, and it seems wise to spread that out over a few years instead of doing it all at once.

I doubt we had the payroll flexibility to retain Renfroe and do the Winker/Toro deal. Trading Wong and Renfroe netted us something like $10M in savings.

True, but last year we depended on former star veterans (McCutchen, Cain and Wong) to all produce pretty well, and that was far from a certainty as well. It's not like the rookies are replacing superstar talent. The bar is set pretty low to outperform some of the production we got at certain positions last year. I kind of look at RF/DH as a combo. We lost Renfroe and McCutchen, but should get better offensive production from Winker than we did from Renfroe (Winker's "bad" last season was still about equal to Renfroe's "good" last season), so Frelick/Mitchell (whoever gets RF) is comped to McCutchen's offensive bar, which was a 98 wRC+. Defensively, Frelick/Mitchell should easily surpass Renfroe. Overall, I think we'll get better production from RF & DH in '23 than we got in '22. In CF, the bar is set so low from the Cain/Davis/Taylor fiasco that Frelick/Mitchell should be able to add positive value vs. last year. The hardest comp will be whether Turang (if he gets the starting 2B job) will match Wong's '22 production. Wong was horrible to start the season, but got hot after he was platooned in the second half of the season. He ended up with a 2.5 Fangraphs WAR, which is more than Turang is expected to provide. He's capable of it, but I don't think he should be expected to match Wong's '22 results.

In 2,070 career PAs, Winker has a wRC+ of 126. In 2,683 career PAs, Renfroe has a wRC+ of 109. In his down year last year, Winker posted a 108 wRC+, so offensively we have an upgrade there. Defensively, Frelick or Mitchell will almost assuredly be better than Renfroe, and hopefully will be able to match McCutchen’s 98 wRC+. So, I’d say RF/DH has been upgraded fairly substantially. We’ll have to see if they give Turang the everyday 2b role. He’d likely be better defensively than Wong was last season. Offensively, Wong did well after he got platooned. Overall, Wong posted a 2.5 Fangraphs WAR. Turang could do that, but Steamer projects him for 1.4, so probably a bit of a downgrade as Turang “gets his feet wet.” The bar in CF is pretty low, so whichever of Mitchell/Frelick wins the job should be able to outproduce what we got from the position in ‘22. Yelich, Adames, Tellez, and Urias are back, so that’s a wash. I think we’ll still add a catcher, but Narvaez was pretty bad, so the bar there isn’t set very high. Our starting pitching is all still around, and hopefully they will be healthier this season. We don’t have Hader. Overall, I don’t see how we’re significantly worse. I’d say we’re probably about the same as we were last season, with a lot of off-season to go.

Jansen is a free agent after 2024, which is the same year that we have a lot of guys becoming free agents. We’d likely be trading someone like Wiemer for one year of Jansen and then trading him along with Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, and Lauer next off-season. You can’t always get what you want, but I’d prefer that any trade of one of our better prospects would bring back someone with more team control.

There was never a chance the Brewers were going to extend Burnes. There were just hopeful Brewer fans wishing it was a possibility.

Winker had back-to-back seasons with a wRC+ over 140 in ‘20 and ‘21. His “terrible” season last year still ended in a 108 wRC+, when he was apparently battling injuries. How is this not a potential “needle mover?” Nothing’s guaranteed, but he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball in two of the past three seasons. I hope one of the young guys can post a high OBP and get moved to the top of the order with Yelich. Then Winker and Adames can be the 3/4 hitters with some guys on base in front of them. I think he should fit into this lineup nicely.

To be fair, @Robocaller said that projecting a 3 WAR season would be "optimistic." He didn't say "far-fetched" or "impossible." I think that banning the shift will help Yelich, who hits a lot of hard-hit grounders and liners to the right side of the infield. I'll agree with the term "optimistic," but I don't think it's far-fetched at all to believe that he could be a 3 WAR player this year. It will be a lot less possible if he gets moved to full-time DH, but at the plate Yelich is still an above-average MLB player. I like him at the leadoff spot. I just wish we didn't have to pay him $26M/year for his production. It will be fun watching this team if he stays at leadoff and one of the young, high-avg/high-OBP OFs earns the #2 spot.

Any pitcher is always one throw away from Tommy John. It is probably more likely that Burnes will have TJ over the next 5-6 years than that he won't. I would never expect a long-term contract with a pitcher to be injury-free. That said, I would love to have Burnes for a few more years. At his age, anyone would love to have him. That's why he's going to get a contract that is way out of the Brewers' league. We might as well expect that we'll sign Aaron Judge this offseason. Even with some sort of discount for signing him while he's still in arby (the discount wouldn't be too much at this late stage), he's still going to be too expensive, especially with the Yelich deal on the books. I know that I keep saying it, but small-revenue fans can't think like big-revenue fans. It sucks that we can't keep our guys, but it is generally not a good idea for a team like the Brewers to guarantee huge sums of money for a long period of time to anyone, even if he's really good. In fact, being really good might make it a worse idea, because great players are a lot more expensive. If we can't win with a 28-year-old Burnes making $6.8M while pitching like a Cy Young candidate, then how will we win with a 32-year-old Burnes making $40M? How will we do when he needs to take a year and a half off for TJ surgery, but we still have to pay him? Our next extensions should be to guys like Mitchell, Frelick, Turang, Chourio and the top prospects we bring back when we trade away Burnes, Woodruff and Adames. I find it ironic that I'm writing this in a thread titled "Do the Brewers Need to Trade Yelich," with the notion that we'd probably have to add Adames and Burnes to a trade or eat most of the contract just to get a team to take Yelich off our hands. And this is happening while Yelich is still an above-average MLB player!! Big, expensive contracts are really bad for small-revenue teams.

This season's rookies of the year (Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris) came from playoff teams (Seattle and Atlanta), neither of which are small-market teams who only play rookies because they can't afford to hold onto veterans. These guys played major roles that helped their teams win a lot of games. Sometimes your best option is a rookie. Talent sometimes beats our experience. If Seattle wanted to trade us Rodriguez for Renfroe at the start of last season, I'm sure Stearns would have been pretty happy, regardless of the fact that Renfroe had a lot more MLB experience. People act like veterans are a guaranteed success, while rookies are guaranteed to struggle. That's not true. Everyone has their ups-and-downs, but the more talented player will generally do better over time than the lesser-talented player. Frelick is the most talented option we have. If we wanted to trade him, we'd get a better package than Taylor/Ruiz/Perkins in return because he's worth more than all three of them combined.

First off, welcome to the board. I don't think they'll have the payroll room to extend both Adames and one of the pitchers. They will probably have a hard time fitting one of them under budget with the Yelich deal on the books (they could do it, it'd just keep them from doing other things). That said, the Yelich deal is a good example why you shouldn't use the logic "You can't turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young candidate..." Yelich was coming off of two straight MVP-caliber seasons, and we are talking about trading Burnes along with Yelich for nothing just to get out of the contract. Big money, multi-year contracts are very risky for any team, but they are especially risky to small revenue teams like the Brewers. We are far better getting pre-arby guys to extend, like we have recently done with Ashby and Peralta, and trading away players when they're getting close to free agency. It may not be fun as a fan to see your favorite players traded away, but it's the reality of baseball with the system they have in place.

Or Juan Soto. Cherry picking one player doesn't prove a point. I don't like rushing prospects, but as has already been noted, Frelick was a college pick who was expected to move fairly quickly through the system. He's a "bat to ball" guy who has put his bat on the ball at every level he's been at. AAA isn't a parking spot where good prospects spend a lot of time. Many of your best prospects spend little to no time at AAA. It is filled up with lesser-talented prospects trying to prove themselves, and guys with some MLB experience trying to get back to the show. The biggest step in the minors is the move to AA. If players dominate after making that jump, they're probably MLB ready.

I'd say all of the above. No one really knows everything that goes into why one player "clicks" while another doesn't. Heck, Hader may have watched a motivational video on a bus trip one day, and that was where everything came together. However, the Brewers have had success with getting pitchers to the MLB and having success when they get there, whether they are drafted by them, traded for while they're in the minors, or acquired after they've already had some time in the majors. This success should give us some hope for pitchers we have acquired like Gasser and the guys they got in the Renfroe trade. What could bring even more hope for the future is that they're finally drafting some position players who are showing success through the minors. Hopefully that will transition to the majors. It looks like Stearns put a lot into the system from top-to-bottom that hopefully will pay dividends well into the future. And hopefully, since it seems to be working, Arnold understands this system and continues to do what they've been doing.

They really don't have other options that are anywhere near as talented as Frelick. Other than potentially looking to save a year's service time, Frelick is not going to be held back in order to give a shot to Taylor, Ruiz or Perkins. Not all prospects are created equally. Some never make it, some need to "take their lumps" and spend time at each level to prove themselves, eventually finding a spot on the MLB roster. Then there are your top prospects, who the team finds a way to get onto the MLB field. Frelick is sitting in that category. Nothing is certain, and even top prospects sometimes fail, but after a disappointing history of failure in the draft, the Brewers look like they've finally got some guys that are showing they deserved to be drafted early in the first round. They are not going to hold Frelick back "until Ruiz, Perkins and Taylor fail." The front office is probably designing their five- and ten-year plans around Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Turang. The "other options" you mentioned are likely going to be fighting to hold onto "backup OF" status. Ruiz has a more potential than the others, but he's still raw in the OF, having been moved off of second base, so he needs AAA experience more than Frelick does.

Add in that Wong (.138/.286/.175/.461, 37 wRC+ vs LHP) started last year as an everyday player before finally being platooned. This year, I doubt he gets any starts against lefties. I agree with @UpandIn that we need to address our deficiencies against lefties. We could do that by bringing in another utility guy and a backup catcher who hit lefties well, or we could "go big" and do something like signing Contreras. I think we're more likely to do the former. I just hope they don't do like last year. McCutchen seemed like a nice pick-up to fill in as a lefty-masher, but instead he was cemented into the top of the lineup. Maybe another guy like Brosseau (who doesn't have any name recognition) would be the best way to go. I'd like Diaz, but he's 31 and only has two years left. He had a good season last year, and would probably cost us something like Wiemer + a decent low-level prospect. He doesn't have big splits, so he'd probably play most days, fitting into the 1B/3B mix. He'd be a nice upgrade, but I'd prefer bringing back someone with more team control who wouldn't be hitting free agency the same year as a whole bunch of other Brewers, especially if I'm giving up someone like Wiemer.

I think the Brewers will start Mitchell and Frelick, but I don't think they'll have an entire OF of rookies. Do you think they'll play Taylor everyday in RF, do you believe Wiemer is ready, or do you think they'll acquire another OF? I'd guess that Yelich will be the primary LF, with plenty of "days off" at DH and Taylor getting a lot of playing time as the primary backup at all three OF positions. Wiemer will probably make his MLB debut this season, and by opening day 2024, I could see Yelich being the primary DH, but I don't think they're quite there yet. I agree with the rest of your post, and think Yelich will benefit from the new shift rules. His hard grounders will have a lot bigger gaps to get through.

@Robocaller hit the nail on the head. In order to trade Yelich, we'd have to do what the Reds did in getting rid of Suarez, which is add a good player into the deal to offset Yelich's negative value. Unfortunately, his deal relative to his production is so bad that even Burnes might not be enough to offset it. I know some people don't like baseballtradevalues.com, but they have Yelich at -119.3, with Burnes at 78.3. Whoever took the deal would get Burnes for two seasons, but would be stuck with the Yelich deal for years. By BTV's math, we'd need to trade Adames and Burnes along with Yelich just to get zero return (we'd actually get a 0.30 value player in return). For sake of reference, they have Junk (one of the three guys we got back in the Renfroe trade where people have said we got no return) valued at 0.30. But, let's say a team would be willing to take on Yelich's contract if we add Burnes to the deal. Would you trade Burnes for nothing just to get rid of Yelich? I wouldn't. I certainly wouldn't want to trade Adames, Burnes, and Yelich for Junk. We're much better off getting another year out of Burnes and Adames and trading them for a bunch of prospects who can complement Yelich for league minimum. If you can look past the negative trade value due to the contract, Yelich has some value to the team as a player. The contract will keep the team from signing or extending other players, but if he can keep a .350+ OBP, he can help the team win. He'll likely be the LF this year, transitioning to DH as our OF prospects make the way to the MLB team. At some point in the future, the team will probably have to just eat the contract (or most of it in trade), but that's a few years down the road. Until then, we can use this as Exhibit A as to why we need to strongly consider whether it is worth it to "back up the truck" to sign another big money, long-term deal to someone that takes them into their mid-30's... even if we really like that player. Even if that player remains an average-to-above-average MLB player, we'd still wish we could give him away for nothing just to get out of the contract.

I'm not really a big fan of extending guys when they're already well into their arby years and are basically getting full free agent money. The Brewers should be deciding whether to offer Mitchell an extension, and whether they'll do the same to Turang, Frelick, Chourio, etc. over the next few seasons rather than trying to figure out how to work a nine-figure extension into future payrolls. Therefore, I'm more on the side of trading all three of Burnes/Adames/Woodruff prior to them hitting free agency. It probably makes sense to trade away one of them now instead of trying to unload all three in the same offseason. If the Brewers were to extend one of them, I'd probably want it to be Woodruff. As far as Adames, I don't really like the "all or nothing" approach in hitters, and his OBP probably makes him a better 5-6 hitter than top of the order guy. He's a nice player to have on the team, but not someone I'm giddy about locking in to a big-money, multi-year deal. Trade him either now or next offseason, let Turang man SS, and add a bunch of top prospects talent that will be cheap and under control for six years each. Some day maybe I'll pick a big market team as my "second team," and I can get excited about them paying money for a "name I know." As a Brewer fan, I have learned that paying money for that name usually isn't the best use of finite resources. Let someone else sign them to that big contract while we stockpile young talent that plays for a discounted salary. If we trade Adames while he's still in his arby years, we are very likely to get more value out of what we get back than we would receive from holding onto him. If we extend him, he will have zero "surplus value," so we'd have to hope he plays up to his contract while we try to field a team around him without a ton of money to spend. I think part of the reason people like the thought of extending players is because we "should" be able to do it, and signing that extension shows we're one of the "big boys." It sucks to have to watch guys we've cheered for leave to play elsewhere because we're "too cheap." In reality, we're probably better off with young talent and financial flexibility than we are by having a "known player" on the team along with the big, guaranteed contract it took to get him. Extensions signed this late in arby are basically free agent deals, and small market teams will never maintain competitiveness by building through free agent deals.

How did their expenses correlate? We have very little knowledge of the Brewers' finances. We know what they spend on payroll, and try to make determinations from that. They went into 2022 with a payroll roughly $10M higher than their previous record high, and it really appears that they are trying to cut costs at this point, starting with the much-maligned Hader trade, continuing with them letting guys like Suter go, and most recently seen with the Renfroe trade being discussed in this thread. Some feel that there is a lot of profit being made and the ownership group is just being cheap. I don't feel that way. No one outside of the organization knows for sure.

I don't think we'll sign him, 2023 will be Abreu's age 36 season, so teams looking at signing him will probably be looking at a 1 or 2 year deal. With the Brewers' probable financial constraints heading into next season, I think you are correct that they won't be able to offer him the highest-dollar-value, short-term deal, and he will very likely not be a Brewer. How it could get done: 1) He likes living in Chicago. Milwaukee is close to Chicago. I'm not sure of his family situation, but they could keep their home in Chicago and he could get an apartment in Milwaukee and only be a short drive away. He's made plenty of money, so maybe at this point in his career he'd forgo some money in order to not have to uproot his (and his family's) life. 2) We add a year onto the end of the deal. I don't like doing this, as it's probably going to be a year we'd wish we didn't have him, but this was one of the main reasons Cain signed here. I think that if the team is looking at guaranteeing money into 2025 or beyond, they will first look at extending Burnes, Woodruff or Adames. If those talks are going nowhere, then they may look at signing a bigger-money free agent.