monty57

OPS is a good "generic" stat to get a quick overview of how a hitter is doing. From the day I first saw it, I figured that its biggest flaw is that it overvalues SLG relative to OBP when OBP is more important than SLG. My preferred "look at one thing only" stat would be wRC+ or wOBA. I generally use wRC+ because it's based on 100 as "league average," so it's really easy to use. I believe that those who say "batting average doesn't matter" are fooling themselves. Batting average is the biggest and most important component of OBP, and OBP is about the most important thing in baseball. Of course batting average is important. It is extremely important. It just doesn't tell the whole story. For that, use wRC+. However, any stat has to be taken with a big grain of salt when the sample size is too small. That applies to OPS, OBP, and yes, to K rate. I understand that Hiura rightfully has a hill to climb this year to earn playing time, and I think there is a good chance that he will just never be a good enough hitter to earn full-time duty. When people say his numbers are inflated due to unsustainable things like BABIP and HR rate, they're right. My biggest complaint this year was that he made some adjustments, looked like a different player than he was in 2020 & 2021, was hitting the ball hard against right-handed pitchers, and the Brewers only started him against lefties. Most of his PAs against righties came against relievers, and even though he rarely got a chance to face them, he still did pretty well against them. He did strike out too much, but I'd bet that if the only lefty someone faced was Hader, his strikeout rates would be absurdly high as well. I know that his numbers weren't going to be as good as the were (he had a wRC+ vs RHP of 244 at one point!) but I thought he should play to see what was real and what was not. Hiura may indeed strike out too much to ever be effective, but I just wanted to see him get more PAs vs RHP when he was hot. Especially considering that at the time McCutchen was in a woefully bad slump and probably could've used a few days off. That didn't happen, and if Hiura isn't going to get a shot when he has a 244 wRC+ and his "competition" is 0-for-May, he's probably never going to get a shot. That's why I think that everyone involved will be best served if Hiura is traded in the next few days for someone that will help the Brewers. The Brewers will get someone they'll use, and Hiura can "sink or swim" elsewhere. As to "batting order doesn't matter," that has equal credibility with "batting average doesn't matter," but this post is already too long.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental. I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell. Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.

Lathund said it well. Bell is having a great year, but hasn't had a great career. Bell doesn't replace our worst bat, he plays 1B/DH, so he replaces either Tellez or McCutchen on any given day, so we'd probably get a player who is slightly better than what we have. I hope Stearns/Attanasio don't get antsy and give up too much. Our depth is minor league OF, so I'd try to package a deal around the "second tier" of our outfielders. Of course, there's always the caveat that Hiura is there if the opposing team is interested.

They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.

They traded Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for Tyler Webb in 2017. He was also an All Star this year. But, the point is still valid. Stearns & Co. do not have a track record of trading away their top prospects since they traded for Yelich.

I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.

I'm of the "Don't trade players you have plans for" line of thought. I think that Turang will be our 2B next year (allowing us to save $8M on Wong), so I wouldn't trade him. I think the Frelick will be our CF soon, so don't trade him. I think they probably want Wiemer to replace Renfroe, but that may be a year and a half off, so I wouldn't want to trade him, but he could be had for the right price. We'll need pitching as we're losing our starting rotation in a couple of years, so I would be very hesitant to trade away starting pitchers, especially the ones like Small who are nearing MLB-ready status. Chourio is looking like he could be the next young MLB phenom, so he has to be untouchable. We have a surplus of minor league OFs, so I think that Mitchell is one of our prime trade chips, and looking at the Rule 5 guys from previous posts, Lutz and Gray should probably be dangled, as their path to the majors in Milwaukee is pretty hard. Of course Hiura will be on the market, we'll just have to see if any rebuilding team wants to take a shot on him. I don't expect anything major, as we'll need our prospects to make their way on the MLB team to keep payroll under control for the next few years. However, we have enough young OFs to dangle that we should be able to get some meaningful upgrades for the offense/bullpen this season.

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

BaseballTradeValues.com has Mancini's value at 2.3. That seems low to me, but would mean that we could get him for a prospect like Gray, Lara or Mendez. We have a lot of OF depths in the minors, so if we can get Mancini for one of our "second tier" minor league OFs, I'd pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.

BaseballTradeValues.com has Mancini's value at 2.3. That seems low to me, but would mean that we could get him for a prospect like Gray, Lara or Mendez. We have a lot of OF depths in the minors, so if we can get Mancini for one of our "second tier" minor league OFs, I'd pull the trigger on that trade in a heartbeat.

For clarification, Milwaukee traded for Renfroe this past offseason. He still has one more year of arbitration remaining. We gave up a couple of prospects, but as of right now, it look like a steal to get rid of Bradley and his contract while getting two years of Renfroe in return. Losing Renfroe will hurt, but hopefully it's nothing serious. Sounds like they're expecting around two weeks.

For clarification, Milwaukee traded for Renfroe this past offseason. He still has one more year of arbitration remaining. We gave up a couple of prospects, but as of right now, it look like a steal to get rid of Bradley and his contract while getting two years of Renfroe in return. Losing Renfroe will hurt, but hopefully it's nothing serious. Sounds like they're expecting around two weeks.

If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.

If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.

We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.

We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.

I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.

I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.

I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.

I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.