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Everything posted by monty57
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Brewers to break team record for payroll in 2014
monty57 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
When the Brewers started getting better at the MLB level, they began focusing on "high floor/low ceiling" guys who they thought could make it to the majors quickly or be traded for MLB help. Now we have an over-abundance of these type pitchers in the high minors, but the organization doesn't think they're good enough, so they keep signing veterans for the MLB team and keeping the prospects in the minors. It does seem there has been a shift in focus to "high upside" guys recently so hopefully that pays off. The actual players drafted are on the scouts, but I think the focus comes from higher up. Melvin seemed to change his tune and start talking more about the future of the franchise last offseason and again this offseason, but agents now bypass him and go to Attanasio, who they know will tell Melvin to forget about the plan and instead sign the veteran. So I do think there has been a "team philosophy" that has us where we are. Dean Taylor inserted his philosophy to shift the team's resources from the MLB level to building up the farm. It was unpopular, but it worked. He got canned before it fully kicked in, but Melvin took over and continued this philosophy. Attanasio bought the team when this philosophy was just starting to pay off, and the "team philosophy" started shifting to "win now / prospects should be used as trade fodder to give the MLB team the best chance to win in a window." Melvin seems to understand that we need to shift the philosophy back to building up the farm, but Attanasio hasn't made this shift, and might never make that shift. So yes, poor drafts have hurt us badly. This is probably a mix of bad scouting, bad development and putting the focus on "High floor / low ceiling" players. We have also traded away prospects for "proven," which has been gone over in great detail on this site, and we have rarely traded a tradeable "proven" player for young talent which is always blown off as "those trades don't exist." We live in the "B-caliber" free agent market and eagerly accept a horrible final year or two of a free agent contract as long as we got one or two good years from the player. We extend every "name player" who will sign the extension and wonder why they don't pan out, while the elite players walk in free agency. The idea of trading a good "name" player prior to the trade deadline of their final year is alien to management. The Brewers are on a path where they will continually be expensive and not that good. The second wild card gives playoff hope to teams that are not that good, so it keeps fan interest up, which allows the team to have enough revenue to continue on with the strategy. Meanwhile, every other team in the division seem to be embracing a model which allows for a good MLB team along with a strong farm, so I don't see the situation getting better... I just see Brewer fans getting excited that they have a new "name player" to cheer on every offseason, and wondering why they never win consistently. What the Rays (and others) do is not some voodoo magic that no one else can do. They are willing to make moves that may be unpopular and ridiculed by the talking heads on TV, but that add young, cheap talent to the system. It's not easy for management to stick to this strategy, because those in management generally want to be cheered by the fans and lauded by the media. The Pirates are getting jeered for not spending their resources this offseason, sacrificing the future for the present. I applaud their management for not doing this, and think they have a far better future ahead of them for not giving up tomorrow for today. I lived most of my life seeing the Brewers at the bottom of the standings, had a brief glimpse of a team filled with the potential to be a perennial contender, and have watched that vision get smashed by a "win now" mentality. Now I just have to hope all the stars align on a given year, and the expensive-yet-not-good roster can somehow squeak into the second wildcard, with the realization that it's more likely they will once again be near the bottom of the standings and I'll have the same conversation next year after another "B caliber" free agent is signed to a multi-year eight figure salary. -
Brewers to break team record for payroll in 2014
monty57 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
While teams like the Cardinals and Rays are better run overall than the Brewers, don't forget to keep in mind at least one very basic difference why, both have simply drafted much better than the Brewers, especially since Seid took over. Whenever one business continually beats another, there are many reasons, but the finger has to ultimately be pointed at those at the top. I agree that drafting/developing players has been bad, but we have an owner who makes the statement "Your farm system is currency for trades." That says a lot about Attanasio's feeling about not only the drafting / development process, but also about trading established players for prospects. It's no wonder with that mentality that we are driven by signing free agents and trading prospects for "proven" players, while our drafts have often focused on getting guys who could be in the majors quickly (or who could be used as trade fodder) rather than guys who could actually be good MLB players. Well run teams seem to always have talent throughout the system. They use free agency and the draft to bring in talent, but they are also willing to trade both for "proven" talent and for prospects. The draft is one big reason we have one of the worst farms in baseball. The reluctance to trade "proven" for "unproven" is another. Not having a talented farm means we have to be more reliant on free agency, which leads us to having a record payroll for a team that is unlikely to make the playoffs. With a talented farm, we would have good players forcing their way onto the MLB roster, allowing us to trade "proven" players for more talented prospects. It also allows us to have young stars who are worthy of signing long-term extensions, giving us eight seasons for less than we're paying for three years of a "proven" second-tier free agent. At some point, we need to stop making excuses, and just state the facts that we have one of the worst farms in baseball and a mediocre MLB roster with a record payroll. Looking in that light, the person/people responsible for this situation need to be blamed. When the owner shoulders much of the blame, it's hard to believe things will change any time soon. Attansio bought the Brewers in 2004, at a time when we already had a pretty good farm system (Fielder, Gallardo, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc already in the system with some high picks upcoming) and a rock-bottom MLB payroll. Great time to buy. He was easily able to increase payroll, and had loads of pre-arby talent playing like All-Stars. With that scenario in play, it would've been tough not to make the playoffs a couple of times. Unfortunately, those days are long gone, and we are where we are. I'd have to say it was bad management that got us here, because with good management we could be one of the franchises other people would look at and say "I wish we looked more like them." I don't think any fans anywhere are sitting back right now saying "I wish we were more like the Brewers." Final Note: It was 2003 when the Rays and the Brewers had the #1 & #2 picks in the draft. Both MLB teams were laughing stocks, and the Brewers actually got the better of that draft. Since then, the Rays have had more success at the MLB level, have a MLB payroll around 60% of the Brewers but have a better MLB team, and still have a boatload of young talent on the farm. Which team has been managed well and which team hasn't? -
And remember, the Brewers could also be positioning themselves with the flexibility to make a waiver claim themselves. Yeah, a little roster flexibility is good at this time, when other teams may try to sneak someone through. This move makes me scared that Reynolds and Overbay will both be added to the 40-man soon. I want nothing to do with Overbay. I think Reynolds is a given, but Francisco seems to be a better option than Overbay. Sounds like we'll know by this weekend.
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Brewers to break team record for payroll in 2014
monty57 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't think Melvin or Attanasio are dumb. I think they had a good franchise and then decided to give themselves the best chance to win in a "window," which is designed to sacrifice future for present. Many believe that this is the only chance for a small market team to win, but the success of teams like the Rays, Twins (under Terry Ryan), A's, Cardinals, etc would seem to have busted that myth. I would rather see them try to build a franchise for the long-run rather than for a "window." Since then, it seems that Melvin has tried to show restraint and get the franchise back in order, but Attanasio has kept pushing for a big name signing each offseason. I think this is done more to keep fans coming to games than it is done to win games/make the playoffs. That's a valid business strategy as the team needs revenue, but my personal preference is to do what will most likely lead to a continually successful franchise. As to the success of the free agent signings, first they can't be done in a vacuum. If the player "lives up to" his contract, but the team still stinks, is it worth the money spent, or would they have been better off going another route? Secondly, the signings can't be judged until the contract is played out. I figured Ramirez and Lohse would do well in their first season, but worried age could catch up with them. All in all, I'm sure Attanasio and Melvin want the best for the Brewers. On multiple occasions, they've said something like "you have to weigh the present with the future and sometimes you have to give up some of the future to make the present better." I just wish the reverse of that would be acted on a little more often. -
Brewers to break team record for payroll in 2014
monty57 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I read that as, DM had a budget to stick to so he didn't inquire much more than his normal homework on Garza. Then Mark A got excited and called Doug and said, what do you think of Garza, is he the type of player we would want? If he is, I'm willing to go over our original budget. Kind of like a dad shoe shopping with his kid. Dad goes, "what you think of these Jordans?" Kid says, "well they are over $80 dollars, so didn't think I could get them." Dad says, "well they are pretty sweet, don't tell mom!" Yeah, I think Melvin had a budget and was sticking to it. I think agents (being salesmen) realize that if they schmooze Attanasio directly, they can get him to sign their player to the deal they want. That whole story sounds like the agent was "playing" Attanasio... as he's ordering me up a few double scotch's, we were talking about some nobody reliever who I would never care about as owner, then suddenly as I was walking away he blurted out "Matt Garza." I went over and asked Roenicke if he'd want Garza, and he wet himself, so I called Melvin and told him to forget about the budget and to get the deal done. I wonder if agents with a "B talent" free agent even bother calling Melvin anymore, or if they just go straight to Attanasio. Your analogy is on target, because "dad" is the one who sees the shiny object and can't help himself, while "son" is the one with restraint who just shakes his head and says "okay" when the money flows. Meanwhile, in Attanasio's own words, he signed a guy at a position where he had "20 guys for 12 spots who have pitched well at the major-league level" while leaving a black hole at 1B, question marks at 2B and LF (I like Davis, but he's still a question mark), a pretty poor bench, no depth at most positions and one of the worst farms in baseball. -
This may be a painful question... but if the Brewers were considering Reynolds vs JuanFran as the backup 1st base / 3rd base role... which has better D. Is either passable? I think both Reynolds and Francisco will be on the team and Overbay will not, and if Ramirez gets hurt Reynolds and Francisco will man 1b/3b. Occasionally, to give the pitching staff a reprieve from giving up multiple unearned runs every day, they will let the utility IF get a start at 3B.
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Brewers to break team record for payroll in 2014
monty57 replied to HiAndTight's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's a little more nuanced. Your farm system is currency for trades. And with that mentality, we somehow have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Go figure. I met with Doug afterward and said, "We've got to get one of these pitchers. We can't just go through a season like this." We all love this sport. What's great about this sport is that there's hope. For folks in Wisconsin . . . there's nothing nicer than spending a summer day at Miller Park. But if you know that there is just no chance you're going to win, that is not OK with me. I was very concerned. I wasn't kidding myself to think if we get Kyle Lohse, it's going to change things. I just had to bring up the quality of the product we were giving our fan base. So yes, the Lohse trade was made to make the team slightly better in order to get fans to the ballpark, and no, I don't ever see him admitting that the best thing is to take a step backward in order to take two or three steps forward. Attanasio has done a lot to increase revenue streams, and he seems like a genuinely nice guy, but I don't think I'll ever agree with the way he builds a franchise. Where we are (hopeful that if everything goes right we could sneak into a Wildcard spot) is better than where the Brewers have been through most of the team's history, but we'll never be modeled after teams like the Cardinals, Rays and others who can sustain success and vie for division titles every year without bottomless pockets. One of the things that draws me to baseball is the ability to look at the entire franchise and "play GM" to see where things will be in the future. In order to remain a Brewer fan, I have to stop doing that and just look at the MLB team and hope for the best on a year-to-year basis. -
Those saying that this was done out of necessity due to injuries are probably correct. That being the case, the Braves will probably not want to risk the possibility of his accepting a qualifying offer next season, so they'll give up the pick in order to help their chances of winning this season. If they wanted to pay him next year, they would have signed him to a two-year deal, and after getting stuck this year, Santana would be dumb not to take the QO next year. Odds are Santana will be an unrestricted FA at season's end. If that's the case, it's not a "win-win," it' s a "we have to do this even though we don't want to" deal. Probably the best-case scenario for one of those players stuck in the limbo created by the qualifying offer rule that the players association is trying to get rid of.
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John Sickels weighs in: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/30/5363560/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2014 15) Jason Rogers, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline C. This guy gets no attention at all but that could be a mistake. He is a 25-year-old 260-pound first baseman/emergency outfielder and a former 32nd round pick. But he earned a spot on the 40-man roster with a fine offensive track record, career .283/.368/.446 hitter, knocked 22 homers last year, controls strike zone well, posted 144 wRC+ in 2012 and 136 last year in Double-A. There could be something very interesting in this bat. 16) Hunter Morris, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Morris will rank ahead of Rogers on every other prospect list due to his draft pedigree, but he’s only five months younger than Rogers and hasn’t been as productive due to weaker plate discipline and more serious contact issues. Hit 24 homers in Triple-A but wasn’t promoted to the majors for September. Neither Rogers nor Morris offer much defense, both are slow slugger types, but Rogers has a more consistent track record, strikes out less, and they are not that far apart in age. I will go where the numbers lead me in this case and put Rogers ahead. Edit: I'll add this tidbit from the end, as it sums up my opinion on the system pretty well: The problems with the Brewers system are well-known. There is almost a complete lack of impact talent here, and the guys who have the physical ability to be impactful (Coulter, Roache, Hellweg, Williams) have significant questions they need to answer. There are some players with upside and some players with polish, but it is hard to find anyone who has both. This is true both on the mound and in the field. They’ve made steps to add more upside types the last two drafts while still looking for role players and sleepers in the middle and later rounds, but it just hasn’t worked out yet. Heck, even their names are boring. Looking for positives, they do have several of the grade C+/C types who could be useful role players, and there are some guys who would be interesting sleepers in any organization (Rogers, Wagner). The situation could look better a year from now if Roache maintains his second half momentum and Coulter gets back on track. I don’t know if this is the worst farm system in the game. The Angels are pretty bad too, and I won’t have a final ranking on that until all the organization reports are complete. But it sure isn’t a good system at this point and has to be in the conversation for worst. Something needs to change.
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The Braves got a comp pick for McCann so they only move back like 6 spots. But they would have that pick regardless of this signing. They still lost a first rounder. The Braves have locked up a lot of young talent to long-term deals, but they have a pretty poor farm system. Two picks could turn that around quicker than one. When this offseason's extensions start getting expensive in a couple years, they'll probably wish they had more talent coming up from the farm. I don't like giving up picks, but if you're going to give one up, I think you should at least assure yourself of 2-3 years from the player.
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I don't get the complaints. Morris had an entire season in AAA to show he should be in Milwaukee. He actually hit worse as the season went on. If anything, the Brewer moves this offseason show the front office have some hope for him. Instead of trading for an Ike Davis who would have blocked Morris, they sign Overbay to compete with Juan Francisco. The door is wide open for Morris to walk through. I think the bolded part here is a really good point. He's not ready to play in the majors, and I don't think it would do him or the Brewers any good to throw him out there when he's not ready. Melvin picked up a couple of stop-gap solutions and hopefully Morris will play well at AAA. If he does, the guys we have at the MLB level will not block him for long.
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Yeah, they're starting to get to the point where the regulars will be getting more time on the field, so PAs and IPs will be hard to find. I have no problem if whoever loses the Overbay/Francisco battle sits the bench for days at a time, but I'd like to see Morris get a lot of spring playing time so he can hit the ground running. The best thing that could happen to the Brewers' 1B situation would be for Morris to put it all together, force the Brewers to call him up, and become the 1B for the next half-decade. I don't know if that will happen, but the Brewers need to give him every opportunity to make that happen. Playing everyday with the minor leaguers for the rest of the spring should better prepare him for the coming season than sitting the bench watching Reynolds and Francisco play in major league camp.
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Green certainly has to re-establish himself (if he ever was established). He had no realistic shot at the Opening Day roster, but if he plays well in AAA, he could be the injury replacement if Ramirez goes down. He just needs to settle in and put up solid play offensively and defensively in Nashville. I'm not counting him out, but I'm not counting on him. Right now, he's a utility guy who doesn't play SS and who is coming off a major injury, so his value is minimal. However, a great AAA campaign could put him in the running for the 2B or 3B job next year. Morris also had no chance at a spot on the Opening Day MLB roster. Last ST was more telling to the Brewers' feelings about Morris than this ST, but he really needs to put a good season together at Nashville if he wants a shot at the MLB team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rogers pass him up and be our 2015 starting 1B with Morris once again hanging out in AAA. But it's really on him. I'm sure the Brewers would love for him to go out and dominate AAA. Nelson is a MLB pitcher, and his time will come. I just hope he does well enough that he forces the Brewers' hand, and they are able to trade one of their established major leaguers (Gallardo, Lohse, Garza) by next offseason. Thornberg should also be thrown in with this sentiment. Having a few young, inexpensive, home-grown SP in the rotation and some good young players from trading older, more expensive SP could do wonders for the Brewer franchise.
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What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
monty57 replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Johan Santana and the Twins should be the approach for Wang (not saying Wang will be as good as Santana, but just how he was developed into a starter from an RP) The only reason he would be a MLB reliever this year is his Rule V status. Unless he dominates this season, if the Brewers see him as a future starter, I think they should send him back to the minors to work as a starter in 2015 and see how he progresses. -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
monty57 replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since Thornberg is our #6 starter and one of our best prospects, he will be needed as a starter at some point this season. I hope they keep him stretched out at AAA, eliminating one of the competitors for a bullpen spot. Generally, "long relievers" are hidden for extended periods at a time and then brought in when the game is out of hand. It doesn't really matter if that pitcher is any good or not, as he's simply there to get the team through a few innings to avoid tiring out the rest of the bullpen. With two lefties ahead of him, he shouldn't be needed in high pressure situations, so why not keep him as the last reliever/long man. If he shows he can't cut it and is hurting the team, they could send him back to Pitt or work out a trade so they can send him to the minors, but I'd like to see him break camp with the Brewers. Also, we could finally have a few relievers with options, giving us the flexibility to send some guys down / bring other guys up when the bullpen gets abused for a couple days straight. This could help us "hide" the 12th man a little easier. -
Ken Rosenthal speculation: Juan Francisco to DET?
monty57 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
However, I do think the Brewers favor defense over offense at 1B. I don't remember Melvin ever favoring defense over offense at any position. I know we are only three weeks away from Opening Day, but I still cannot imagine Melvin going into the season with Reynolds and Overbay/Francisco as our 1B options. I don't care what Francisco has done in ST, something has to change. I just have to believe that one of the ugly candidates (Ike, Smoak, Carp etc...) that have constantly mentioned will eventually be had for a low level prospect. Overbay/Francisco just have no business being on the roster come March 31. Almost every team has "bad" players at some positions. When we spend most of our payroll on a handful of players, we're going to have some positions that aren't manned by good players. -
Ken Rosenthal speculation: Juan Francisco to DET?
monty57 replied to brewmann04's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It would depend on the return. I think right now Francisco would beat out Overbay, but if the return in trade is greater than the marginal difference from Francisco to Overbay, then make the trade. -
I go back to what I originally said. Doug Melvin wouldn't have drafted Roache in the 1st round if he didn't think he was going to be a very good hitter w/ power. Scouts change their scouting reports all the time as prospects make adjustments. Pardon me if I take what the scouts say with a grain of salt. In my last sentence, I was really commenting on your statement that you and Melvin believe Davis will hit 25 HR this year. I'm sure Melvin has faith in him, as he's pretty much penciled him in as the starting LF, but what you keep quoting was an off-the-cuff comment made during a booth interview, so of course he's going to talk his players up. There were only 10 players in the NL to hit 25 or more HR last season, so it's quite a bit to put on Davis in his rookie year. As to your point on the draft, I have no doubt that a team who selects a player in the first round believes they are the best person available at the time for their team, but most players who are selected at the end of the first round don't end up having a MLB career, much less being a Prince Fielder-type hitter. There are many scouts, with many opinions so yes, take them with a grain of salt, but please take them. Your comment basically says "The opinions of scouts who have seen how the player progresses through his minor league career are irrelevant for players drafted in the first round." I really don't know how to react to that. I guess Arnett was a good pick, and I expect him to win a Cy Young as our staff ace this season. As I said, I really hope Roache and all of our young players reach their potential. Roache's potential is higher than most of our prospects, and he certainly could have a good MLB career. You just seem to be assuming that it is a given and can't understand how anyone would have any questions about a guy who had a significant wrist injury (causing 27 other MLB teams to pass on him) and then had a decent-but-not-spectacular season in low-A ball as a 21-year-old. I'll wait to see how he progresses before I'll pass judgement on him. I do like his power potential.
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PFx1, we all want our young players (Roache, Davis and everyone) to do well. I really want to get some guys on the farm that everyone is drooling over. Projecting young prospects is an inexact "science," but the guys who are paid to scout them (whether "traditional" or "statistical") are generally down on our farm, mainly because of the lack of top prospects in the system. We have added some "high upside" guys in recent years, and hopefully some pan out, but I think it's prudent to temper our enthusiasm. Roache is one of these "high upside" guys, but he has to produce to move from "high upside potential" to "top prospect." Guys like Buxton, Taveras and Almora are OF who fit into the category you're placing Roache. Now, there is a possibility that Roache may end up having a better career than these guys, but the people who are paid to judge these guys don't think it's likely. I hope you're right, but let's let the kid have a good season in the low minors before we get our hopes too high. As to "Melvin's feelings" on a player, it's rare for a GM to speak in anything but glowing terms about one of his guys. A GM's "forward looking" public statements about a player shouldn't be given too much merit.
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From the article: The Mariners aren't the only team interested in trading for Phelps, as the Milwaukee Brewers are also reported to be interested and with the Yankees looking for infield help, second basemen Rickie Weeks or third basemen Aramis Ramirez could be players to interest the Yankees. Both players make double digit salary; with Ramirez making $16 million and Weeks making $11 million, so if Milwaukee were to attempt to make a deal, the Brewers would likely have to eat some salary to pull off a trade. Of course every team likes SP depth, but barring injury, the Brewers would likely send Phelps to AAA (if he has options). If the Yankees would do a Phelps-for-Weeks trade, I'd jump at the deal, but I can't see the Brewers trading Ramirez right now for AAA SP depth, as they don't have any other MLB-caliber player to play 3B. I could definitely see the Yankees wanting Ramirez, but unless they have a MLB-ready 3B to add to the deal, I can't see the Brewers biting.
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I just wish he didn't have that automatic vesting clause in his contract. I can't imagine the Brewers want that option to vest, so barring a Gennett injury I can't imagine he'll be given everyday duty at 2B to start the season. Without the option, an argument could be made for Gennett going to AAA. With the option, I don't see it happening. That said, the Brewers' website had an article saying that he finally made an adjustment to his stance (holding his hands a little higher) and that could be why he's hitting. Of course, you see these type articles every year at this time when a player looks really good over a handful of PAs. I think the biggest effect a hot spring could have for Weeks is that it might up his trade value from "no thanks" to "I'll do it as long as you pay most of his salary."
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Would You Extend Gallardo Now?
monty57 replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers have shown the ability to sign "second tier" talent on the free agent market (Lohse, Garza, Ramirez), and while this would be an extension, what you are suggesting would equate to a "second tier" free agent contract. The problem is that Gallardo did not pitch like a "second tier" player last year, so you are hoping to sign a guy who pitched like a "third tier" player to a "second tier" contract in hopes that he regains the form which never really put him in the "first tier" category to begin with. Your potential upside (the money you'd "save" if you extend him and he does return to form vs what he'd get in a free agent deal in the same scenario) is probably minimal, as Garza is a reasonable comp for "good Gallardo" and his free agent deal is the one you're mirroring in the proposed extension. Your potential downside is that you guarantee $52MM over four years to a guy who is not one of your five best starters, and therefore would not even be in the rotation if not for his contract. Assuming the competition would likely be pre-arby (Nelson, Thornberg, etc), that's $12.5MM per year that could be allocated elsewhere. -
Monty of all people here though you do know that was his 1st pro season after his injury. An injury that made folks concerned of sapping what was his true Plus leading to being draft Power/HR ability. I see 22HRs as being a good sign that Roache can get to the status of being his top 10 predraft ranking in 2012. And yeah the team is built around Braun currently. With Davis, that can all the more reason to make a position change with Roache. Since he's blocked. It will turn in to a reverse Hart. 1b to OF...OF to 1b. Now PFX1 I suggested they move Roache to 1b in their minors. Your statement makes it seem like it's been decided by the club to do so? Where did you read that? Oh, I know, and that's why I said "he has upside and I hope he reaches his potential." The injury caused every team that drafted in front of the Brewers to pass on him, so it is far from set in stone that he will be a dominant MLB hitter. As I mentioned, if he steps things up this season and crushes the ball as he moves up through the system, then the Brewers can start to make future plans based on his presence, but they shouldn't be making any MLB roster moves right now because of Roache. As to whether he should be moved to first base, that should be determined by whether or not the Brewers think he can play good defense at a corner OF position. If he can, then I would not move him, but if he cannot, then he should be moved immediately. Just a note, Hart was actually a 1B who was moved to 3B because of Fielder. He couldn't cut it at 3B, so he was moved to the outfield, and eventually came full circle back to first base. Fielder was someone who was certainly going to block Hart at 1B, and Hart was someone who was playing so well they knew they wanted to do something to get him to the majors. Davis isn't someone who is certainly going to be better than another prospect coming up, and Roache has not yet done anything to make the Brewers shuffle things around to fast-track him to the majors. I think the probable scenario would be Roache starting the year in high-A and potentially moving up to AA mid-season, so next season or more likely 2016 is when he would make the big leagues if he indeed plays well enough to make it. During that time frame, we have a plethora of more advanced outfielders to cycle through if Davis doesn't cut it. Now, if Davis plays well this year, and Roache dominates at the plate in the minors, the Brewers may shift gears and get him some time at 1B, but let's wait for that to happen before moving one of our most promising prospects to a lesser valued defensive position.
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I think that's key. If we want a good first baseman who would be an upgrade, we'd have to trade someone no one wants to trade. I'm sure that if we traded Gomez, we could find a 1B. However, we are not going to trade away someone of no value and magically see that turn into a good, everyday MLB first baseman. We don't really have anyone on our farm worth trading, and we don't have much room in the budget to allow for another eight figure salary. That means we are going to have some holes. The only way to fill the holes to the satisfaction of some would be to give up something of value. The only "things" of value the Brewers currently possess are MLB guys, and trading them would only open one hole to fill another, so it's probably not worth it. When Garza was signed, I thought Attanasio may sell the farm in an attempt to get Butler, but I realized that "the farm" is really Thornberg and Nelson, and our top two prospects aren't worth one year of a good MLB player, which is kind of sad.
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Roache had a .762 OPS in low-A Wisconsin as a 21-year old last year. He has upside, and I hope he reaches his potential, but I don't think the Brewers are building their current MLB roster based on Roache. Maybe he'll change that if he knocks the cover off the ball at high-A/AA this season, but not right now. But to the heart of this whole thread (not your quote PFx1), what do people expect? We spent money to extend Braun, and he's the centerpiece of the offense. We spent money to extend Gomez, and he's a key piece of the team. We spent money to sign Ramirez and he's the cleanup hitter. We spent money to extend Gallardo and to sign Lohse and Garza over the past two seasons, and the only significant trade Melvin has made in years was to fill the shortstop position. People saying they can't believe we aren't doing more to address the first base situation need to realize that we have finite resources, so we can't just sign players at every position to eight figure salaries. The ones we have are eating up most of our budgeted payroll, so we need inexpensive players to fill the rest of the positions. If we aren't going to trade anyone good away, and we can't draft worth a lick, then we aren't going to have good inexpensive players for all the holes. Reynolds has had success at the MLB level, and is probably going to be boom or bust. If he gets the everyday role, and hits 30+ HR with an OPS over .800 (both things he's very capable of), he will be seen as the steal of the offseason. The real hole on the roster could turn out to be the backup 3B. I think Ramirez is probably the key to this year's team, because if he misses a lot of time his backup situation is either someone with no bat or no glove... choose your poison. Reynolds' defense is passable at 1B, but if we have to go with Reynolds at 3B and Francisco at 1B (or vice versa), they'd better hit a lot of HR or the fan-base will be irate with the strikeouts and poor defense, which are two things fans really like to complain about. So we will have a number of good players on the team who will be fun to watch. We'll also have a few holes, but we knew we'd have some holes in this year's roster a couple of seasons ago. If we remain healthy (very important), and if a few players rebound from down years (Gallardo, Weeks, Reynolds) and a few others continue to play above their heads, then we will at least have a team worth watching this season. Spring Training has started, it's a time for hope, and now that I've watched and/or listened to a few games, I've got spring fever, and I'm just going to try to look at this season and hope for the best for the Brewers.

