monty57

I agree with the comment "if Weeks is on the team, then Scooter will end up with a month in AAA." It just makes too, too much sense. You let Weeks play every day in MLB. You let Scooter play every day in AAA. THEN you make your decision a month into the season. The problem is Weeks' vesting option. If he is the everyday guy, then he is going to be on pace to hit the 600 PA needed for his option to vest. Neither the Brewers nor any potential trading partner want the option to vest, so giving him a lot of PA's early in the season is probably not going to happen unless Gennett gets hurt in spring training.

I highly doubt it happens, but my first thought is that the Dodgers would target Aramis, as their depth chart shows Juan Uribe as their third baseman. This would take a guaranteed $20MM off the Brewers' books to help offset Kemp's contract, but while bringing in Kemp would be a big upgrade (he'd probably play RF with Braun going back to LF), trading Ramirez would open up a big hole at 3B. But that depends on the market and how big a fuss Kemp causes. If no one's willing to pay up, the Dodgers may trade him for "nothing" to anyone willing to take on his salary. Who knows, maybe they take on Weeks just to alleviate the Brewers' salary hit this season and maybe they take on a so-so prospect or two in return for paying a couple million a year for the remaining years of the contract. It may not be likely, but it's fun to dream of an OF of Braun, Gomez and Kemp.

I have a feeling that Segura and his representation saw what Freeman got, and they aren't going to like any realistic proposal. That is a concern. However, after Atlanta signed Freeman, they signed Teheran, who is a better comp to Segura because of service time (Teheran has 1.062 years, Segura 1.065): Teheran will receive a $1MM signing bonus and earn $800K in 2014. His salary jumps to $1MM in 2015, $3.3MM in 2016, $6.3MM in 2017, $8MM in 2018 and $11MM in 2019. There is also a 2020 option, but I'm unsure of the value. That allows the Braves potentially two years of free agency, while guaranteeing $32.4MM over six seasons. That's probably the baseline the two sides will use. Teheran had a better year last year, and was much more highly touted as a prospect, so a Segura deal would probably be a little less than the aforementioned numbers. My guess: six years, $26MM with a seventh year option with a $1MM buyout, so total guaranteed money is $27MM. The Brewers "control" him through most of his prime, and he's still able to sign another free agent deal in his early 30's. (He'll be 24 on March 17) Something like that is the deal I'd sign if I were the Brewers. Since Segura seemingly rebuffed the Brewer advances last season, he may be looking at a Castro-type deal, which to me is off the table. However, the talks were when Segura was hitting like a Hall of Famer. Maybe his second half has brought him back to earth a bit. It is good to hear that they're talking extension again, as I figured he'd go the Fielder route and opt to go season-to-season until he hit free agency. edit: fixed typo

If there was any chance he'd take a Braun like deal, I doubt the Brewers would have to think too long about it. I think he's likely asking for something closer to Castro. That I'd certainly want to see more before giving him, but not 8/45 and definitely not 5/11. If they are going to extend him, do it now, as waiting for arby generally means you're signing him to a deal at nearly free agent cost. I agree with H&T. I don't know what the dollar figures would be in today's baseball, so I'll just say I'd definitely sign him to a "Braun-type" deal (the first one he signed in pre-arby), and would not sign him to a "Castro-type" deal. If we could get him on a "Lucroy-type" deal, we should be doing cartwheels. Other than missing the entire season, there is very little chance Lucroy doesn't play up to his contract. Any early extension transfers risk from the player to the team, which is why there should be a substantial monetary discount in the deal, and the deal needs to "buy out" some free agent years. That said, teams need to take some risk, and I would generally rather take the risk on getting a talented young player at a discount for an extended period over paying market value for a veteran in free agency. Small market teams build the franchise around good, young players with eight or so years of "control," They fill holes with free agents.

The question that brings up is: If he doesn't play well in camp, will they cut him? I agree with you Briggs, that they want to get rid of him, but would rather trade him (even if for nothing but salary relief) than simply cut him. I hate the thought of two guys who only play 2B, especially when paired with two guys who really only play 1B. I just don't know when he could build up enough belief in him to get someone to trade for him. Maybe it's ST, maybe it's a ways into the season when all he's hit against is LHP, giving him the greatest chance to have good "average" stats (OPS, BA, OBP... things that are not "counting stats"). It'd be a small, skewed sample, but on the surface it may get someone to believe in him. Does anyone know if any team in the history of baseball has ever had a platoon of two guys who only play second base?

Agree Jericho. I think it is possible (although maybe not likely) that they trade away Thornburg or Nelson in order to upgrade 1B, but not one of our MLB starters. As much as I may like to see them occasionally look to the future, and as much as I think that even with the Garza acquisition, we are not likely to be a contender this year, the Brewers are not going to trade one of their starting pitchers and replace him with one of our prospects... they picked up Garza so none of our prospects would be in the opening day rotation. I think that assuming we don't trade Thornburg and Nelson away in order to "win now," it is likely that we will trade one or some of our starting pitchers at the trade deadline, but not now. To Briggs' point about the Mariners looking to replace injured MLB starters, it is possible that they would think Thornburg or Nelson would make a good temporary injury replacement. However, I would be pretty upset if we traded one of those guys for Smoak. Really, the only reason Smoak is being speculated on is that he's a spare part if the Mariners pick up Cruz, so the hope is that we can get him for a low cost. Otherwise, we stick with what we have or look elsewhere.

I've never seen anyone say the Brewers lost money. In 2012, coming off a year with 3MM attendance and playoff revenues, the Brewers had a $98MM payroll. Attendance that year was 2.8MM, so they dropped payroll to $88MM last year, when they had an attendance of 2.5MM. They get more TV revenue this year, so even with a baseline attendance of 2.5MM, they are able to bump payroll back to around where it was a couple of years ago. If the Brewers brass figured we'd get 3MM in attendance, then the $120MM payroll might be a possibility, but I doubt they assume that. In other words, the increase in TV revenue is largely offset by the decrease in attendance. Going back to last season, I said that the Brewers would probably have a $100MM payroll this season. Just looking at the player contracts, and I figured they pretty much had to (they then traded Axford, leading me to think it could be low-to-mid-90's). My concern is that most of the money is tied up in a few players, so we have to have a lot of league minimum guys just to keep the payroll "down" to $100MM. Even though we are paying more nominal dollars this year, we had a lot more talent on the 2011 and even 2012 teams than we have on the current roster. That's the problem I've been worried about. The limited payroll becomes more limited when you use most of it on a few players, and that is exacerbated when we have a poor farm, so we don't have star players like Braun, Fielder, Hardy, etc playing for league minimum or knocking on the door ready to play for league minimum. We have big question marks at a number of positions, and no depth on the farm at most positions, making us very susceptible to injuries derailing any hopes we may have. I'd expect a Segura and Gallardo extensions sometime this season. They approached Segura last year, and got no response. I have no inside info, but I'd guess that Segura is not going to sign a team-friendly extension. I don't want the team to do a Castro-type overpay, so if he's unwilling to sign a team-friendly deal, we need to go year-to-year with him, and probably should make sure we have a replacement in place so we can trade him sometime in his arby years. Gallardo needs to show that he's got his velocity back. If he does, he's still Brewer "property" for another season if they want to exercise his option. I think Gallardo is the best bet to get traded if some of the prospects show they are MLB-ready, so I don't expect an extension for him. Depending on what Peralta does I'd expect him should he have a good year to be extended as soon as 2015 season. That is much more likely. Extending a pitcher early on is risky, and Peralta is still far from a sure thing, but I'd look at extending him if he is amenable. and possibly Khris Davis should he do what Melvin said he could do I love extending guys when they're early in their careers, but Davis willl really need to show something to merit an extension. Extensions in the pre-arby years are for guys that are pretty sure bets to be really good MLB players (Braun, Tulo, Longoria). Davis has never been highly regarded by scouts coming up. That doesn't mean he won't be a good MLB player, but he needs a few good MLB seasons under his belt before I'd look at extending him, as there is too much risk in guaranteeing 7-8 years to a guy who may not even end up being an everyday MLB player. I'm going to politely disagree with you Hi and Tight and predict that the Brewers have the second best team in the NL Central this season but a top 3-4 team in the NL. Top offense in baseball for sure, and the pitching will be much better than people think it will be. I've heard analysts say the Brewers are the most underrated team heading into 2014. PFx1, I really hope you are right. I think they're going to have a fight on their hands to get third place in the Central, but I really hope you are right.

I can't see Mark Attanasio sitting back after having watched the merry-go-round at 1B last season, and allowing Doug Melvin to stand pat this season. I think a trade or surprise free agent signing will happen. I had the same thought after the Garza signing, and still think there's a good chance we trade some of our pitching prospects for a 1B. However, we can't say Melvin "stood pat." They may not be the signings some fans want, but it seems Reynolds was signed to be our everyday 1B and Overbay signed to potentially replace Francisco as backup 1B/LH bat off the bench. Last year, we played shortstops and catchers at 1B for a good share of the season, so signing guys who actually are first basemen is a step ahead of last year. If I had to guess, I think Melvin is probably okay with Reynolds at 1B. It will just depend on whether Attanasio is okay with it. I don't like that Morales' agent is Boras, because I think Boras knows how to play Attanasio, and if there aren't other suitors, I'm sure Boras is wining & dining Attanasio trying to get him to up the budget to sign Morales.

Even with Brantley being a moderate success that trade was a trainwreck for Cleveland. They may wish they had received more, but getting what they got was better than letting him pitch out the season for the Indians and losing him to free agency. They were in a position where they pretty much needed to trade him, so from their perspective, they got eight years of an everyday MLB OF in return for three useless months of a good pitcher and a second rounder. From the Brewers perspective, they got three useful months of a good pitcher leading to a playoff bid and a second rounder. The Brewers are glad they made the trade, but the Indians are probably better off with Brantley than they would be with whoever they picked with their second rounder. Not something they're going to brag about, but not a complete disaster. That said, it's kind of surprising to extend a corner OF who's career stat line is .277 / .330 / .382 / .711. They must really think he's going to break out, or it would seem like a guy they'd just go year-to-year with in arby.

I haven't given up on him, and agree he's better than he showed last year, but I'll still take Gindl's bat over Schafer's. Schafer's edge is on defense, which is why he'll probably get the call if we only have 4 OF's on the roster (he can play CF). I'm just saying that it would be nice if we could have 5 OF, so Gindl could back-up the corners and Schafer could back-up CF and be a defensive replacement for Davis if needed in late innings. With two guys who only play 2B and one of Overbay/Francisco making the team along with Reynolds, I don't see us carrying a 5th OF, so Gindl probably gets sent to AAA because Schafer can cover all three OF positions. Backup OFs usually garner 200-400 PAs in a season, so who knows if having Gindl hit instead of Schafer for 200 or so PA's would make much of a difference. Probably not enough for the Brewers to cut Weeks or go without one of the lefty 1B, and barring injury or another personnel move, that's all that really matters in constructing the opening day roster.

Hopefully this is true. The Brewers' farm has a desperate need for guys who have the potential to be above average MLB players. I know, the kid is only 16, and may never make the majors, but his ceiling sounds as high or higher than anyone in the system. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Weeks (from Baseballreference.com): 2003 14 PA, .167 Avg / .286 OBP / .250 SLG / .536 OPS, 43 OPS+, -0.1 WAR 2005 414 PA, .239 Avg / .333 OBP / .394 SLG / .727 OPS, 90 OPS+, 0.1 WAR 2006 413 PA, .279 Avg / .363 OBP / .404 SLG / .766 OPS, 96 OPS+, 0.8 WAR 2007 506 PA, .235 Avg / .374 OBP / .433 SLG / .807 OPS, 108 OPS+, 2.2 WAR 2008 560 PA, .234 Avg / .342 OBP / .398 SLG / .740 OPS, 96 OPS+, 2.2 WAR 2009 162 PA, .272 Avg / .340 OBP / .517 SLG / .857 OPS, 125 OPS+, 1.9 WAR 2010 754 PA, .269 Avg / .366 OBP / .464 SLG / .830 OPS, 123 OPS+, 3.7 WAR 2011 515 PA, .269 Avg / .350 OBP / .468 SLG / .818 OPS, 121 OPS+, 3.0 WAR 2012 677 PA, .230 Avg / .328 OBP / .400 SLG / .728 OPS, 93 OPS+, -0.4 WAR 2013 399 PA, .209 Avg / .306 OBP / .357 SLG / .663 OPS, 80 OPS+, -1.1 WAR In nine seasons, 1021 games, 4414 PA and $33,296,600 in salary (so far), Weeks has given us one good full season, two good 400-500 PA seasons and one good 162 PA season mixed in with about five average-to-bad seasons. He has given us a grand total of 12.3 WAR (His poor defense deducting 8 WAR). His ability to get hit by pitches has added .026 to his lifetime OBP, helping make it a respectable .346, but possibly costing him his ability to remain healthy. He's had a decent career as an offensive 2B. He was helped by playing in a hitter's park, and has been hurt by a number of injuries. He's only 31, but his past two seasons, which should have been in the prime of his career, have been pretty bad, with last year being awful. It's possible that he turns things around, but I really hope he gets nowhere near the 600 PAs needed for his option to vest. Let him be the RH part of a platoon at 2B, hope he destroys lefties for the first couple of months, and hope that allows Melvin to flip him for a good prospect at the deadline. My worry is that he'll have a couple of good games at the start of the season and Roenicke will decide that the veteran is his everyday guy, sitting Gennett and playing Weeks. That fear is the reason I wouldn't be upset if the Brewers simply cut ties with Weeks in Spring Training, but I doubt that will happen.

Pressure like this is more likely to be to the detriment of the player than to help them achieve their previous success. I'd probably agree with this. It's akin to a manager saying "if you don't have a good game today, you'll be on the bench tomorrow." I think that would screw up more players than it would help. But, that's life in professional sports. Weeks has had more than his share of chances, and the Brewers have been very patient with him. Throughout his erratic career, he's been given "everyday" status with no plan to replace him and no one brought in to compete based on his #2 overall draft pick and his potential. With this approach, he played very well for short periods, but not so well for longer periods. It's time for him to be on the hot seat. I hope he performs well, but if he plays poorly, I hope they are willing to eat the contract and send him packing. Gennett is far from a world-beater, but at this point he should (and likely will) get a shot to see if he can hold down 2B for the next few years. As much as I hate having two guys on the roster who only play 2B, it's probably best for Gennett to have a platoon partner this year. Since the Brewers are paying Weeks anyway, it makes sense to put him in that platoon role. Hopefully, both players do well.

Yeah, with the current roster, Gindl could very easily be the odd man out, and Schafer will be the backup at all three OF positions. He could see significant playing time in this role. I'd like to find a way to get Gindl on the roster to be our backup corner OF, limiting Schafer to backup CF/pinch runner/defensive replacement. However, I don't think the Brewers will cut Weeks, send Gennett to AAA or cut both Overbay and Francisco, so barring injury or another personnel move (like picking up Bonifacio), Gindl will probably be in AAA and Schafer will have a big role on the team.

Green was dfa'd by the Brewers and no one wanted him. I hope he's able to bring his stock up with a good season at AAA, but he's not going to be an option to start the season.

This was interesting from MLBTradeRumors.com: The Royals avoided arbitration earlier with Bonifacio earlier this month, agreeing to a one-year, $3.5MM contract. However, since that time, they've agreed to bring lefty Bruce Chen back into the mix in 2014 and chosen to designate Bonifacio for assignment to clear roster space. The Royals were unable to find a trading partner and placed Bonifacio on release waivers two days ago. Arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed, and as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out yesterday, Kansas City is only on the hook for roughly $575K of that $3.5MM guarantee. The article is about Bonifacio, but for the Brewers, it pertains to Francisco. There was discussion on this site as to whether or not Francisco's contract was guaranteed, since he did not go through arbitration. It appears that if the Brewers did decide to cut Francisco, he would not be owed his full contract. I do agree with WTP that Reynolds will be the "everyday" first baseman, and I believe that one of Francisco / Overbay will remain on the roster as our primary LH bat off the bench / backup 1B / insurance at 3B (see jerichoholicninja's post). I thought it would almost have to be Francisco, but the MLBTraderumors snippet keeps Overbay in the race.

I'm not that worried about having a weak-hitting SS. I'm worried that our 3B is old and missed significant time last season due to a bad knee (which was rested but never repaired), and his backups are either the aforementioned weak-hitting backup SS, or two guys who are so bad at defense they can barely cut it at 1B, much less 3B. Our backup 3B could easily get at least 40 starts this season. Does anyone at all want to see the Reynolds/Francisco combo manning both 3B & 1B for an extended period? Unfortunately, since we seem to be en route to a 2B platoon with two guys who only play 2B and a 1B platoon of Reynolds and either Francisco or Overbay, that doesn't leave us much room for "luxuries" like a backup 3B or a 5th OF. Bonifacio is probably going to go to a team that will offer him a lot more PT than the Brewers can guarantee him, but a guy who can play 6 or 7 positions would be a wonderful addition to the Brewers' inflexible lineup. Bonifacio cleared waivers and allegedly as many as 9 teams are interested in his services. He's not worth getting in the bidding for. Let someone else overpay. He'll make less than $3.5MM, or else someone would've just claimed him off waivers. The bidding won't get that crazy. I'd think he'd be worth $1-2MM.

No surprise the Phillies like a 37-year old. He'll fit right in with the rest of their old guys. It doesn't surprise me that the Pirates didn't bring him back, and it will be interesting to see how the Pirates build over the future. I heard their GM in an interview last season saying they weren't willing to give up the future for the present. Anyone who's read anything I've written over the past few years could figure that I would like a GM like that, so Pittsburgh could be a good model to see if Tampa has some magic that no one else can tap into, or if other small-market teams can find success with this strategy.

Someone will probably claim him before the Brewers. However, if he were to become a free agent, someone would very likely guarantee him a bigger role than the Brewers would offer, so it's unlikely he would sign here. With everyday players at every position he plays, he could find himself sitting the bench for the Brewers for long periods. That is unless the Brewers were going to send Gennett to AAA and dfa Weeks, guaranteeing Bonifacio the 2B job, but that's not likely to happen. An opportunity cost question: The Brewers just spent roughly the same amount owed Bonifacio to sign K-Rod. If that money could have been spent on K-Rod or Bonifacio, who would you rather have?

I may have to pull back a bit from my previous statement, as Smoak's done better than the raw numbers show, and may look better if he didn't play his home games in Seattle's stadium. I checked Baseball Reference, and Smoak's sOPS+ over the past three years have been 100 (93 vs LHP in 345 PA, 92 vs LHP), 81 (68 vs RHP in 347 PA, 86 vs LHP in 188 PA), and 109 (125 vs RHP in 357 PA, 51 vs LHP in 164 PA). For some reason in 2011, he took three PAs vs RHP hitting right handed, and had a 180 sOPS+, which is possibly why his total number was 100, while his splits were 93 and 92. Home vs away: 2013 - 122 sOPS away, 96 home, 2012 - 109 away, 52 home, 2011 - 92 away, 109 home I used sOPS, which measures how the player did vs the league, because that's what baseball reference gave me when I went into splits. Using OPS+ (106, 85 and 113) in the last three years, he looks better than if you just look at his raw numbers. That would say that he had one terrible year, but Seattle's stadium is killing him and he's really a decent hitter. Ackley has been pretty horrible all around after his 376 PAs as a rookie in 2011 (OPS of .766, .622 and .660, OPS+ of 120, 77 and 90). I wouldn't give up much for him. Over the past three years, Estrada's ERA+ is 97, 113 and 102. 2011 (when he had the 97 ERA+) was the last year he was used as a reliever. As a starting pitcher, he has been good. I wouldn't trade Estrada for these two. I'd just leave Ackley out of the conversation, and see if we could get Smoak for one of our lesser AAA SP prospects.

Yeah, we just dfa'd Mat Gamel, who was a former top prospect who never had success at the MLB level, so I can't imagine Melvin would give up something of value for a different former top prospect who has never had success at the MLB level to replace Francisco, who was a highly thought-of prospect who hasn't had a lot of success at the MLB level. If Seattle has too many people, and they are desperate to dump someone so they give Smoak away for little-or-nothing, then I'd be fine with getting him. That would basically mean Francisco would be gone, and that's not a bad thing. However, the marginal difference from Reynolds/Francisco to Reynolds/Smoak isn't worth giving up anything of value. It's basically dumping our garbage for someone else's garbage and hoping to find a treasure.

There was also a very publicized incident when he was in New York, where he beat up his girlfriend/wife's father.

I think/hope that much of Gallardo's problems last year stemmed from the World Baseball Classic, so I agree that he could be a pleasant surprise. I think some of his better second half can be attributed to getting some rest while injured. However, my "gut feeling" about the WBC won't be answered until he goes out and pitches well. If he has "lost" his fastball, he won't be the same low-#1/high-#2 pitcher he used to be. He's in his prime years, so hopefully he finds his velocity and reverts back to what he was. Lohse will be 35. That's my only concern about him. From the day he was signed, I figured he'd be good the first year, but could slip in year two and/or three of the deal, as most players retire by age 35 or 36 due to age regression. If he's one of those elite few who don't succumb to age until age 37 or later, then we will have gotten really lucky. I do like Estrada, and think he's seriously underrated. If fully healthy, he should put up decent numbers. I don't know why he never gets any recognition. He's not short, he's not a soft-tosser, he's just always overlooked. Peralta is the best bet of all of our pitching prospects to potentially reach the top-of-the-rotation level. If he can get a bit more control, he has the "stuff." If he doesn't get that control, he should still be a 4/5 guy. So I'm not negative on the staff, just wary. They're certainly much better than the Brewers have thrown out there for most of their existence as a franchise, but considering we're spending nearly half our payroll on those five guys, they should be. My guess is that we'll have the third or fourth best rotation in the division, depending on how our guys fare, and how the Pirates' guys do.

I think the same could be said for the Pirates rotation as well with Cole, Liriano, Rodriguez, Morton & Locke. Will Cole have a sophomore slump? Will Liriano revert to the form he had in Minnesota/Chicago? Will Wandy be fully healthy? Is Morton ever going to be consistent? Which Locke will show up, the 2013 first half or 2013 second half? Going into 2014, the Pirates have the best pitcher in Cole but other than that I would rather have the Brewers rotation 2-5 than the Pirates rotation. Yeah, I think the Cardinals easily stand out at the top. The Reds are next in line. Then there's a step down to the rest of the division. The Brewers and Pirates both lack someone who will likely be an ace-of-staff this year. The Brewers have guys with more track record than the Pirates, while the Pirates have some guys who could be aces-of-staff in the future. I would gladly trade our top seven guys for the Pirates top seven guys, but just for this year, it's tough to say who will be better overall, for the questions mentioned above. ...and then there's the Cubs.

If we were to do the trade, ideally it would be because some of the other pitchers had stepped up their game, making some of the MLB guys expendable, and (again ideally) we would try to get at least some minor league pitching back. It's early to be discussing this, but in a mid-season trade, the team receiving the MLB player is doing so to win now, so they may be willing to give up talented guys (future good MLB players) who won't help them this year. We have a lot of holes in the minors to be filled, so I wouldn't want Melvin to say "we need a stud pitching prospect or else," but it's entirely possible we could get some pitching in the mentioned trades that would be decent MLB starters in the future. Also, if we're trading Gallardo mid-season, it's because we're out of the race. In that case, having guys like Fiers around at least give us something to throw out on the MLB mound for the rest of the season (or act as "injury insurance") if we were to pick up a stud pitching prospect who isn't yet ready to be thrown on the MLB field. When the Brewers were using all of their draft picks on pitchers, I had hopes that would mean that in the future we'd have a home-grown MLB rotation and be able to trade away guys as they started to get expensive because we'd have good, young, cheap pitchers ready to take their place. That hasn't happened, but at least we have a number of guys who should make the majors as back-of-the-rotation starters or relievers. Signing Garza blocks these guys now, but it does open up the possibility of trading away someone else in the not-too-distant future. We'll just have to see if the Brewers will take advantage of that opportunity.