monty57

and with every team getting $26 million more in tv revenue Not to pick on you, because I've seen plenty of posters talking about the extra money teams will get from TV, but how much revenue is lost with the 500,000 fewer tickets the Brewers sold last year vs two years prior? There is a reason the Brewers are doing what they are doing this offseason. They have a limited budget based on some known numbers (like TV revenue) and some assumptions (like attendance). With a significant downward trend in ticket sales over the past two seasons, and presumably lackluster ticket sales this offseason, if you were charged with putting together a budget, what would your assumptions be for ticket sales and the revenue generated from them? My guess is that they would assume less tickets than last year, so somewhere between 2.0MM and 2.5MM, and base the player payroll budget on those numbers. Most of that diminished budget is going to a handful of players, leaving very little to spread around to the rest of the team. I'm sure Melvin realizes that a healthy Hart is better than any other option, so I'm sure he offered the max his budget would allow. Unfortunately, that was not nearly enough. Therefore, since he feels he has to do something, he's looking at what he can afford, which is offering minor league deals to Reynolds and Overbay. We basically have to hope that either (A) this team really surprises everyone this year and plays good enough to bring fans out of the woodwork, increasing the budget, or (B) some of our prospects (none of whom were very highly touted) step up and prove that they are good, everyday MLB players, so that when some big salaries are off the books next year, we will have a good base to build around. Then we would have some money to spend to fill in the gaping holes on the roster.

I don't like that it looks like they're going to carry two guys who only play 1B and two guys who only play 2B. The acquisition of Overbay seems to show that they may have had enough of Francisco, but they also acquired Reynolds, who is a very similar player to Francisco, so maybe they're fine with guys under .800 OPS with over 200 K's and they'll keep both the RH and LH version of that player. I believe they are going to go into the season with Reynolds and one of Overbay/Francisco on the roster. All signs seem to point that way, and Melvin is going to cover himself after the 1B fiasco of last season. If they went with one 1B and cut the other two (we already have too many 1B in AAA), and the one they kept fell flat, the fans would be in an uproar. That leaves 2B. Weeks can't be given the everyday gig, as that would make the automatic vesting of his option a possibility. Therefore, Gennett will be on the roster. So, the question would be whether or not someone (Velez or someone else) is enough to get the Brewers to cut Weeks and eat his salary. I would like to have two utility IF on the roster, and would be fine with Gennett splitting time with Bianchi and/or Velez, but I'm not the one who would have to pay Weeks millions of dollars to not play. My guess is that Velez does not bring enough to the table to make the Brewers cut Weeks or change from the seeming plan of going with two veteran, "proven" first basemen. One LH, one RH.

This made me think that maybe the Brewers would have a lot of split squad games, but surprisingly, there are only two SS games the entire spring training. But, to warm up a frigid January day, the first spring training game is February 27, just over a month away!

The only way Overbay seems to make sense is if they are either going to cut Francisco or if they think Francisco is the 3B backup. I would think it has to be the former. I agree that I would rather have a backup who can play either corner position, but I guess they'll just ride out A-Ram's knees and flip a coin if they don't hold out. Right now, it looks like: 1B: Reynolds 2B: Gennett/Weeks platoon SS: Segura 3B: Ramirez LF: Davis CF: Gomez RF: Braun C: Lucroy Bench: Maldonado, Weeks/Gennett, Schafer, Overbay, Bianchi Having two guys who only play 2B, and two guys who really only play 1B (I know Reynolds played 3B, but not well) will really limit the team's flexibility. Oh well, we still have a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report, so we'll see if they do anything else.

Yes but Yuni? Don't forget Gonzalez. That was where I started believing that the Brewers didn't think highly of Morris. He was coming off a .920 OPS season in AA and was in his mid-20's, and he was given something like 3-4 days in ST before they sent him to minor league camp. It looks to have been the right move, since Morris had a bad year in AAA, but it was a good sign to me that Morris was hyped be the Brewers, but not highly regarded by them. I hope he or Rogers is able to step up and take over 1B, because I really don't want this offseason's 1B antics to carry on into future years, but it's pretty certain to happen unless one of the prospects takes a big step forward.

To start with I would not have been outbid for Corey Hart. I'm pretty certain I'd be getting an OPS+ of about 120 right there with quality defense. But now he's gone. If you are standing next to Warren Buffett and Bill Gates at an auction, and all three of you like the same thing, would you be pretty certain that you would not be outbid? The Brewers have little money relative to other teams. The Brewers offered what they could, and weren't close to Seattle's offer. Even assuming they were able to win the bidding war for Hart, it would've been for more than he signed with Seattle, and could have crippled them for a few seasons. With little money, little in terms of tradeable prospects, and a team that is a real longshot for playoff contention, the Brewers really have limited options. They could blow the whole thing up, trading any player that has value, or they can do what they're doing, which is taking a year to see what they have in their young players, let some contracts fall off the books next year, probably make some mid-season trades, and go into next year with a much better grasp on the talent level of their young guys, some new young guys from trades, and more money in the war chest. That said, I don't really like this signing. At least Reynolds has a chance that he'll go out and put up an .800+ OPS season. Overbay really only makes sense as insurance for a string of ST injuries, or if they're planning on cutting Francisco and go with a Reynolds / Overbay platoon. As to the "see what happens in Spring Training" nonsense, these guys have plenty of history. If they need Spring Training to decide between Overbay, Reynolds and Francisco, then they're inept.

I'm fine with this move. I realize that the Brewers don't have the capital to get a good option, so I was okay with seeing what Halton could do as the RH side of a platoon. However, Halton is not the type of prospect that you bend over backwards for, so I have no problem with him being bounced back to AAA. I am a bit concerned about roster flexibility assuming we keep Francisco, Reynolds, Weeks and Gennett on the roster, but otherwise I'm fine with Reynolds getting the call as the nearly-everyday 1B. With his all-or-nothing swing, if he hits on "all" a few extra times, he will help the team and would probably get something in trade if we're in that position mid-season. If not, we didn't give up anything to get him, and he'll at least give the prospects more time to prove themselves at AAA. Hopefully, they prove that they're MLB players, and not that they're AAA fodder. We have to realize as fans that we will have to accept less-than-stellar players in some positions. We gave up some future in an attempt to field a team with no holes a few years back, and now we're living in that future. Buying low on guys like Reynolds at least gives the potential for some upside. Just don't sign him to a three-year, eight figure extension if he hits a bunch of HR early :-)

Every year since 2011 it is more and more apparent that the Brewers are just playing in a totally different league compared to many teams in baseball. With deals like this it is abundantly clear that the only chance teams like the Brewers have to compete is to draft and develop young players. And not just some, an entire team of them. And with the draft being such a crapshoot, for everyone, small market teams are just rolling the dice and hoping, over and over, while big market teams get to divvy up the riches amongst themselves. Maybe you get lucky and trade for a star for half a year, but that's all you can afford. They certainly play with a disadvantage, but what it really means is that they can't compete using the same management style as the big market teams. In other words, they can't compete by trying to build through free agency and by trading their prospects for veterans with limited team control remaining. Rarely should anyone be allowed to walk in free agency, especially players who could bring back significant value in trade. When Attanasio bought the team, there was a low payroll with a strong farm system and room to add revenue streams to the stadium. This led to a period where we had very good, cheap talent and a rapidly expanding payroll. This was nice, but unsustainable, which is why I've been lobbying for a more sustainable path to success, including, but not limited to always looking at whether there is anyone on the MLB roster that may make sense to trade for younger, cheaper players. It's hard for any team to maintain success in professional sports. It is made harder for a small market/small revenue team like the Brewers, but it can be done. You just have to make decisions based on your situation and not try to manage like a big market team. The big question is whether, after being weaned to expect the Brewers to always "go for it" with big moves, the fans will accept managing the team the way a small-market team needs to be managed. We've lost over 500,000 tickets sold from 2011 to 2013, and if that trend continues, things could really blow up.

One played poorly here last year, so the Brewer fans have soured on him. One played poorly elsewhere, so the Brewer fans will not have soured on him, and will think that he must be an upgrade, so it will look like the Brewers are "doing something." The PR department will focus on his 40 HR power, Melvin will comment that at 5/6 in the order, batting average isn't that important as the job is to drive guys in, and they will hope that will cause a few more tickets to sell/renew. I wouldn't be mad if Reynolds was signed, but I don't think it'd do much to help the team. Basically, if it's down to Reynolds everyday with Francisco as a LHB off the bench, or a Halton/Francisco platoon, I'd probably just stick with what we've got. While I don't expect a lot, Halton and Francisco are at an age that they should put up "peak" numbers for little cost. They may bomb, but so may Reynolds, and Halton/Francisco cost little and could easily be dumped for nothing if Morris does step things up. I guess if Reynolds was the everyday guy, they could send Halton back to AAA and drop Francisco, opening up a roster spot if they have someone who they really want on the 25-man, but I'd guess Francisco would be retained if Reynolds was signed. Not sure who the fifth OF would be though unless Weeks or Gennett is off the roster.

While I certainly hope you're right, I wouldn't let a guy at rookie ball stop me from making a good baseball decision at the MLB level. Note that I don't think signing an expensive free agent would be a good baseball decision, but if we could somehow find a good, young MLB ready 1B for a good price, I'd jump at the deal. When/if Denson becomes the stud prospect knocking at the door, the Brewers could flip the MLB 1B for another player. If we go in to this season, with our current options at 1b, I'm very confident that we will all be disappointed. I hope DM can still find a legit 1b option, and I'm not talking about Michael Young or Lyle Overbay. I believe there are guys out there. But at what cost? I'm sure we could find someone if we were willing to overpay, but that wouldn't necessarily make us better, and could hurt the franchise overall. Other than Weeks, who has no trade value, I don't see us trading anyone from our current MLB roster, and we have a weak enough farm system that I don't want to see any of the top guys traded from there. So I guess I don't see how we'll get a guy who will really be a big upgrade. I think Ike Davis is at the upper end of what we could hope for, but not unless the price tag drops from Thornburg.

I agree Briggs. If Morris is the best option, he should start from day one. But to the question at large, I believe for most players it is around two months in the minors to save a year's service time. It varies for different players. I remember seeing a chart last year and if they had kept Peralta down for just under two months they would have saved a year's service time on him.

That's a possibility Logan, but if Weeks gets the starting gig, he racks up a lot of PAs which would lower his trade value as the team we'd be trading with would almost certainly have to pay him next year as well. If we couldn't find a trade partner, then the Brewers would have a grievance filed against them if Weeks was playing well and Gennett was brought up to platoon, keeping Weeks' option from vesting. If he dominated, then some Brewer fans would be upset if he was traded and many would be upset if he wasn't traded and his option vested for next year. Really a lot of ways to "lose" if Gennett is sent to AAA to start the season. I think the most likely scenario is that they'll start the year in a platoon. With Weeks only hitting against LHP, he should put up good numbers, enticing other GMs to think he's "found it," and his PAs will be low enough that his option probably won't automatically vest. As I mentioned above, this will limit the Brewers' flexibility, and we'll see Halton playing corner OF and Francisco playing 3B, but the Brewers may find this to be the "least bad" option, with at least some possibility of flipping Weeks for something of value.

Good read. Thanks Mass. I like Nelson and it's good that we have a group of pitchers getting near MLB ready. They'll get some more "seasoning" this year between AAA and the majors. I think we'll make some trades mid-season (Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez) and will have a decent amount of free cash going into next season. Guys like Nelson, Hellweg, Peralta, Thornburg, etc along with our young position players (Segura, Davis, Gindl, Gennett, etc) and some good talent from the trades will hopefully be a solid group of pre-arby players that will help us turn us into a younger, cheaper, but still exciting team as early as 2015. Hopefully guys like Nelson, who got a taste of the bigs last year will be able to take what they learned back to AAA, elevate their game a notch or two, and be ready when their opportunity comes. It'll be here soon.

Just curious, do you see the Brewers trading him or if it came down to it do you think they would just straight out release him? I am starting to get the sense that he won't be on the opening day roster one way or the other Weeks is going to be a tough call. I'd prefer they trade him, but I can't see anyone trading for him, so I think there's a chance they end up releasing him and paying his salary. Holding onto him brings risk that he'll end up with enough PAs to automatically vest his option, and as SoupTown mentioned, the final roster spots will be important, and I don't think we should start the season with two players who can only play 2B. We need more flexibility. If we have to go Halton/Francisco at 1B and Gennett/Weeks at 2B, it really limits the roster. In that case, Schafer has to be the backup OF (Gindl to AAA) as we need someone who can play CF. Halton would have to be a backup OF, and he's not as good as Gindl, and Francisco may have to be called upon to play some 3B, as Bianchi would be the only other backup for SS/3B. There is also risk in cutting Weeks, as Gennett is far from a sure thing, but I think I'd get rid of Weeks either through trade or release and go with Gennett as the 2B, giving some starts against LHP to Bianchi.

Yeah, I've always liked Estrada as a starter, but he gets no respect. Barring injury, other than #5, the rotation is set. In addition to good health, we need Gallardo to get his fastball speed where it used to be, Estrada to pitch like he did before injury, Lohse to not succumb to age, Peralta to continue his development and not have a sophomore slump, and at least a couple of the MLB ready guys to pitch well. Unfortunately, even if all that happens we'll probably still end up in fourth in the division, but at least we won't be a pushover and we'll have something to cheer for.

I'm with JimH, Oldcity, gregmag and others. Would you rather: A) Buy a lottery ticket when the grand prize is $500MM, only hit a few numbers and win $10MM or B) Buy a lottery ticket when the grand prize is $250MM and not win a thing I would take choice "A" every time. Weeks may have not lived up to the ridiculously high expectations pinned on him at a young age, but he has had a long and somewhat successful career with the Brewers, which is far more than we have received from almost every other first round draft pick in team history.

This has probably been discussed on this thread but is there anyway Morris could get the 1b job this year or is that totally out of the question? My guess is they want him playing more in AAA, since he didn't have a good year last year. I got skeptical when he didn't get much of a shot in Spring Training last year, and they went with every option (and many non-options) at first base without ever seeming to consider bringing Morris to the MLB team. I highly doubt he'll start the season in Milwaukee, and while I doubt they expect it, I think that management really hopes he plays well, so they will be able to call him up during the season. So yes, he could get the 1B job, but not until mid-season and only if he's tearing up AAA and the MLB 1B are playing as bad as most expect them to. Christ... Just get us someone other then Francisco at 1B this year!!! Right now we don't really have a good option, but we also don't have the capital (money or trade bait) to get a good option. I won't re-open the argument I've made for a few seasons but to say that the Brewers lie in the nest they made, and we are going to have to suffer through having some holes for a while. This year, we don't spend money and we see what we have in some young players. Next year we will (potentially) have a lot of money coming off the books, we will potentially have traded for some more young players, and we will know what we have in players like Davis, Gennett, Thornburg, etc, so we will be in a better position to start adding to the mix. I call this a "backdoor rebuild," as management is putting on the airs of competing, but they're really looking to get younger and cheaper without losing too many tickets sold. But whatever you want to call it, I wouldn't look for any big moves. Davis makes sense if he doesn't cost much in terms of prospects because he's low risk/high potential reward and has a few years of team control. I think they've soured on Morris (if they ever really thought highly of him), and I could see them trading him for Davis if the Mets would bite. It fits the m.o. of getting "proven" guys and only costs a guy the Brewers probably don't think is an MLB player.

I wasn't making excuses for anything. I was just saying that 22 IP is pretty insignificant. Players have bad months all the time, and it really doesn't mean anything. Segura hit for a .584 OPS in August and .552 OPS in September. Should we find a way to get this "garbage" out of Milwaukee? I'm not saying we should or shouldn't go for K-Rod, but using 22 IP in Baltimore as reason that he's now garbage seems extreme. I do think it would be amusing to see fans screaming about how unforgivable Braun's actions were, while cheering on a piece of crap wife-beater like K-Rod.

The Mets are asking for right-hander Tyler Thornburg in return while the Brewers would prefer to deal a position player. I bet they would, as they really have no notable position prospects. I just wonder if this means they're offering Hunter Morris for Davis.

Yeah, I wouldn't use Weeks as a negative value in a trade like that. Depending on health and performance, Ramirez, Gallardo and Lohse could bring something of value back. If any or all of them are performing well mid-season and the Brewers are out of it, then they could be used to bring back good young talent. I'd rather just dump Weeks and pay his salary than pick up the similarly tarnished Uggla, to whom we would owe more money for a longer period. Personally, I think Weeks will either be traded for some obscure A-baller before the season, or he will begin the season only facing LHP, in hopes he'll mash it and that'll fool some GM into thinking he'd be a good guy to trade for.

I don't see it. Lohse is going to start the season with Milwaukee. It's possible he's traded mid-season, but not until then. Meanwhile, even if he's not a world-beater, we need Gennett. He's young, cheap and MLB ready. He is needed this year to keep Weeks from getting the PAs needed for the automatic option vesting to kick in, and he's needed in the future to man 2B, as we don't have anyone in the system to cover that role.

But those season numbers include his 2nd half with Baltimore. His season numbers look fine, but his 2nd half is nightmare like... The limited number of innings is why it's hard to judge how a reliever (or even a bullpen) will perform from one season to the next. With so few innings, one or two bad outings makes things look terrible. 22 innings is a very small sample, so I wouldn't put too much weight in it.

Briggs, I agree. Trying to balance the scales of how fans will perceive a move, along with trying to determine if another team is going to offer more are just a couple of additional things a GM has to consider on top of the difficult task of actually trying to determine what moves make the most "baseball sense" for the franchise. Being a GM is a very tough job. The Mets are just casting out lines to all interested parties to see if any will bite. They probably hope someone will, but expect they'll come back with either "you can't have the player you asked for, but we'll give you {X}," or "you can have the player you asked for if you add {X} to the deal." Whoever bites on the initial offer, or comes back with the best counter-offer will get Davis. As to whether Davis is worth it, I don't know. I like him as a LH part of a platoon, as he has definite potential to be a .850-.900 OPS player in that role, but how much do you give up for that, especially at a time when the team isn't exactly itching to add salary? Personally, I like your previous idea of Colvin on a minor league deal. That's not mutually exclusive to signing someone else, but it is a low cost, high potential reward signing. But, with what's on the table, at least a Davis deal would give us a young-ish, high potential LH-hitter who actually knows how to defend at 1B. It would also limit Francisco to LH power bat off the bench, which is a win in itself. I don't want to lose a MLB-ready SP prospect, but I'll just have to trust in Melvin's judgement to determine which of his MLB-ready SP prospects he's willing to dangle in trade.

Sandy just lower your asking price for Ike and this would be done already! What's wrong with Hellweg or Pena! He's in the driver's seat, with the best available option available, a number of teams bidding for him, and no looming "trade deadline" forcing his hand. He's doing just what he should, which is to ask for more than Davis is probably worth to see if any team is desparate enough to bite. If no one takes him up, then he takes the best offer, which may well be someone of Hellweg or Pena's ability. At the end of the day, only one team will get Davis, and it will go to whoever gives up the most in trade. The rest of the teams will have to go with other options, which for the Brewers may mean a Halton/Francisco combo. Melvin has to feel to some degree that the fans would dislike going into the season without some perceived upgrade at first. Therefore, I think the Mets are doing exactly what they should. It's the teams looking at trading for Davis (and their fanbase) that will feel the pressure. One of them will crack and give up more than they'd like.

2012 OPS: April .550, May .496, June .926, July .794, August .887, Sept .859, Oct 1.179 vs LHP 2012 .560 / 2013 .406 vs RHP 2012 .868 / 2013 .727 Again, I don't know what to make of him, but he could at least make a decent guy for the big side of a 1B platoon. I don't know that I'd give up Thornburg and have to pay him $3.5MM for that role, but I could definitely see it happening. He's still in arby, and has three years of "control" left. Weigh the option: Give up Thornburg and pay Davis $3.5MM or hold onto Thornburg, go with Francisco, and save $3MM dollars. For point of reference, Thornburg's 2013: 18 G, 7 GS, 3W-1L, 66.2 IP, 26BB / 48K, 1.19 WHIP, 2.03 ERA Career: 26 G, 10 GS, 3W-1L, 88.2 IP, 33 BB, 68 K, 1.24 WHIP, 2.64 ERA Five years of "control" (two years of pre-arby) remaining.