monty57

I don't think we'll sign him, 2023 will be Abreu's age 36 season, so teams looking at signing him will probably be looking at a 1 or 2 year deal. With the Brewers' probable financial constraints heading into next season, I think you are correct that they won't be able to offer him the highest-dollar-value, short-term deal, and he will very likely not be a Brewer. How it could get done: 1) He likes living in Chicago. Milwaukee is close to Chicago. I'm not sure of his family situation, but they could keep their home in Chicago and he could get an apartment in Milwaukee and only be a short drive away. He's made plenty of money, so maybe at this point in his career he'd forgo some money in order to not have to uproot his (and his family's) life. 2) We add a year onto the end of the deal. I don't like doing this, as it's probably going to be a year we'd wish we didn't have him, but this was one of the main reasons Cain signed here. I think that if the team is looking at guaranteeing money into 2025 or beyond, they will first look at extending Burnes, Woodruff or Adames. If those talks are going nowhere, then they may look at signing a bigger-money free agent.

The way things stand, Hiura is still a mystery. With the way he was used last year, I was kind of surprised that they offered him arby. Does that mean they envision him playing a big role as 1B/DH/2B, or did they just offer arby so they could flip him for someone in trade? Outside of Hiura, things are starting to shape up, and their plans for Hiura could determine what else they do. The OF looks pretty set with Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and possibly a 5th OF from the AAA group. Adames is SS, Urias will probably play 3B vs RHP and 2B vs LHP, with Brosseau at 3B vs LHP and filling a utility role otherwise. Wong is at 2B vs RHP, Tellez is at 1B. Caratini will fill one catcher spot and we'll probably find another, hopefully a starter. We'll probably pick up a utility guy who can back up SS. So, what do we do with Hiura? If he is going to be our main DH, then we could be pretty much set the way we are, other than picking up a catcher and a utility guy. They didn't seem to trust him last year, so that would be a surprise, but why offer him arby if they're just going to sit him on the bench? He isn't a good defender, so his value as a bench player is limited, and he should only be on the roster if he's going to pair with Tellez in a 1B/DH combo, hopefully finding someone who can fill in vs LHP.

The way things stand, Hiura is still a mystery. With the way he was used last year, I was kind of surprised that they offered him arby. Does that mean they envision him playing a big role as 1B/DH/2B, or did they just offer arby so they could flip him for someone in trade? Outside of Hiura, things are starting to shape up, and their plans for Hiura could determine what else they do. The OF looks pretty set with Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and possibly a 5th OF from the AAA group. Adames is SS, Urias will probably play 3B vs RHP and 2B vs LHP, with Brosseau at 3B vs LHP and filling a utility role otherwise. Wong is at 2B vs RHP, Tellez is at 1B. Caratini will fill one catcher spot and we'll probably find another, hopefully a starter. We'll probably pick up a utility guy who can back up SS. So, what do we do with Hiura? If he is going to be our main DH, then we could be pretty much set the way we are, other than picking up a catcher and a utility guy. They didn't seem to trust him last year, so that would be a surprise, but why offer him arby if they're just going to sit him on the bench? He isn't a good defender, so his value as a bench player is limited, and he should only be on the roster if he's going to pair with Tellez in a 1B/DH combo, hopefully finding someone who can fill in vs LHP.

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being.

They have Brosseau as a “lefty killer,” but they could definitely use another solid RH bat. Hiura can’t hit lefties, so as of right now, we’ve got Taylor and whoever our backup catcher ends up being.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up.

I’d be pretty surprised if they have on opening day roster of $130M again this year. My guess is it’ll be around $110-$115. Right now, Cots has us around $102. I know some people don’t believe this, and no one wants to hear it, but last year’s $132M was probably over budget in a “go for it” year. Unfortunately, with reduced attendance, they probably lost money and we’ll see a reduction in payroll this year that will continue until ticket sales go back up.

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich. I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties. Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts. I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys. Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-)

Yeah, Adames' down season (especially in avg/OBP) mixed with McCutchen being forced into the top of the order every day hurt. There was no consistency behind Yelich. I also think that the team's insistence that you cannot put two LH hitters back-to-back in the order hurts. Our best "vs RHP" lineup to start the season would probably have Yelich and Wong at the top of the order. With Yelich, Mitchell, Wong, Frelick, Tellez on the roster, it might be hard to find ways to not have back-to-back lefties. Without Renfroe, it really throws the LRLRLR lineup for a loop, because it means that someone like Hiura or Urias would be the regular clean-up hitter. That's another reason to believe that we're going to pick up a RH corner-IF/DH before the season starts. I hope that Frelick and Mitchell will continue to be higher-OBP guys as they transition to the majors. It will be interesting to see where Counsell puts them in the lineup to start the season, but as the season progresses, I expect to see them moved up in the order. Turang is another high-OBP guy that will eventually hit the majors as we continue the transition away from high-SLG, high K, "all or nothing" approach guys. Of course, a lot will depend on what other moves are coming. As I mentioned, I think we're going to pick up another RH bat and I think that will make things look a lot different than they currently stand. Maybe freeing up $11M by trading Renfroe in order to sign Contreras to a $20M-per year deal would make people feel better about the trade :-)

I disagree. I think they felt that Renfroe was expendable because they feel Frelick is ready. If they were throwing in the towel, they would trade Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames. Renfroe is a roughly-average MLB player set to make $11M in his final year of team control. They would have held onto him if they needed him, but thankfully they have MLB-ready top prospects who can step in. This saved the team a lot of money and hopefully brought back some guys who can help out a bit now and for the next 5-6 years.

The way for the Brewers to afford an extension to one of their stars while having Yelich on the books is to have a lot of pre-arby guys on the roster. They have developed some guys, but they will need to trade for others. Yelich and Woodruff would take up close to half our payroll, leaving around $50-$60M for the remaining 24 players (around $2-$2.5M per player on average). It will take a lot of league minimum players to make that happen. The best way to get these players would be by trading away the other two stars. The only way I see the Renfroe trade affecting any extension plans is that they picked up some guys who could be cheap role-players for the next half-decade. If the guys we got back become a #5 starter and a middle reliever, that’s still 2 of the 24 spots taken up for league minimum, leaving more money for other players. We would continually have to drop mid-tier guys when they’re in their arby years, hope to get more Ashby/Peralta-type extensions and not count on any significant free agent signings. And, of course, we’ll have to trade away most of our good players a year or two prior to free agency, even if it makes fans and media call them cheap. In other words, a Woodruff extension (I don’t think Burnes is even an option) would be a huge commitment for the Brewers. Since he would likely be signed into his mid-30’s, I don’t think it would be a good gamble. If he “hit the cliff” in his early 30’s, paying him and Yelich would be a huge hurdle to overcome.

The way for the Brewers to afford an extension to one of their stars while having Yelich on the books is to have a lot of pre-arby guys on the roster. They have developed some guys, but they will need to trade for others. Yelich and Woodruff would take up close to half our payroll, leaving around $50-$60M for the remaining 24 players (around $2-$2.5M per player on average). It will take a lot of league minimum players to make that happen. The best way to get these players would be by trading away the other two stars. The only way I see the Renfroe trade affecting any extension plans is that they picked up some guys who could be cheap role-players for the next half-decade. If the guys we got back become a #5 starter and a middle reliever, that’s still 2 of the 24 spots taken up for league minimum, leaving more money for other players. We would continually have to drop mid-tier guys when they’re in their arby years, hope to get more Ashby/Peralta-type extensions and not count on any significant free agent signings. And, of course, we’ll have to trade away most of our good players a year or two prior to free agency, even if it makes fans and media call them cheap. In other words, a Woodruff extension (I don’t think Burnes is even an option) would be a huge commitment for the Brewers. Since he would likely be signed into his mid-30’s, I don’t think it would be a good gamble. If he “hit the cliff” in his early 30’s, paying him and Yelich would be a huge hurdle to overcome.

At the end of the day, I thought Renfroe would be on the opening day roster as RF/DH. That they mad the trade either means: 1) They needed the money, either because they’re broke or they have a better option on which to spend it. 2) They think Frelick is ready to start and can provide production for a lot less than $11M. 3) They really like the guys they got back. I think options 1 & 2 are more likely than option 3.

I’m not looking for a gem. I hope we got a couple middle relievers, and maybe Junk can spend time as a back-of-the-rotation starter when we inevitably trade away all the starting pitchers who are closing in on free agency. That’s about as hopeful as I can get.

I'll counter that with "this FO has shown us all we need by giving us one of the best periods of baseball in Brewers' history." My guess is that the "bunch of rookies" (Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Chourio, Wiemer, etc.) will be guys you'll enjoy cheering for if you give them a chance and don't get so depressed that you give up on the team.

The scouting reports that Eye Black posted earlier in the thread seem more positive than "crap thrown against the wall." These aren't star players, but what can you expect from trading Hunter Renfroe? Junk will probably take on the Suter role, which for the Brewers is kind of important. They also got a left reliever that will allow Milner to pitch the higher-leverage situations. As I've said in other posts, a big part of this is that we saved money. We have Frelick to step into Renfroe's position, and hopefully we are able to use some of the money we would have paid Renfroe to pick up a corner IF, where we are pretty thin. There is no given that Attanasio will spend the money, but I think he's shown that he'll spend when he thinks there's a meaningful upgrade. They don't really seem to like relying on Hiura, so I think they'll find a corner IF somewhere.

There is probably some "hope springs eternal" in my outlook. I want the team to do well, so I'll look for the bright side of a trade. I expected them to hold onto Renfroe, but I also expected them to let Wong move on to free agency. I've expected them to lower payroll since the article came out on ticket sales dropping significantly, so they probably couldn't keep everyone, especially if they are looking at improving elsewhere. They probably felt that they needed Wong at 2B more than they needed Renfroe in the OF. They also recently got rid of some relievers who are getting more expensive and just traded for some relievers who are going to be paid league minimum. If Junk can pitch Suter's innings for a few million less, then I guess that's good for the Brewers. I think/hope that some of the savings will be used to upgrade elsewhere. I'd really like to see a "real" third baseman brought in instead of a second baseman playing out of position. Or maybe we get a good first baseman who could move Rowdy to DH. Sometimes moves need to be made to save money. Nobody likes them, whether that is buying the Honda instead of the sports car, or trading a veteran OF and letting a rookie play. But whether we like it or not the Brewers have a smaller budget than many of their competitors. I'll choose to look for the positives. We have a relatively small payroll, but at this point we have one of the best rotations in baseball, we just added some pieces to a bullpen that needed it, we have most of our position players set, and the rookies that are being asked to step up have shown a lot of promise in their minor league career. Even without more moves, we should go into the season with a decent shot at winning the division, but I think we still have some moves to be made. I'm excited about this team, and rather than bemoaning the rookies, berating the owner, or deriding every move, I'm looking forward to seeing what they'll do for the rest of the offseason, and am waiting earnestly for opening day. But then again, I'm kind of an optimist. It's easier these days with an ownership group that has proven itself to be pretty good for an extended period of time.

Hopefully, this deal saves more money than just the expected $11M for Renfroe. Without pre-arby options, the Brewers would likely have to go out and sign some bullpen arms for a couple million dollars each. I'd guess that the Brewers are looking for two of the guys we got to break camp on the 26-man roster, with the third guy sitting in the minors as "injury insurance." They may only be in the "Suter role" and middle relief, but they're still roster spots that have to be paid. Let's say we have a $110-120M payroll this year. We have to have 26 players on the roster, so that's around $4.2-$4.6M per roster spot. Every guy on the roster that's paid league minimum means that we can pay more for the other spots. Plus, they have years of team control, so if we are looking at extending someone, we now have additional cheap options for the 26-man that could allow us to have extra payroll in future years as well. Budgets are boring, but they're pretty important.

That's just not responsible. You don't have any idea how much money they have to spend, but you want them to spend even if it would put the team in a bad financial situation? Attanasio has made it very clear for years (since he hired Stearns) that the Brewers are not in "going for it" mode. Rather, they are trying to maintain sustainable success. With the significant financial disadvantage the MLB puts smaller-market teams in, they cannot be irresponsible with their finances. By the way, a one-year $17M deal would definitely be meaningful, because that would be akin to the Grandal deal we did a few years ago. It would be a star player signing a one-year "prove it" deal, and I'd be pretty excited to see who we'd get on that deal. It's the crappy one-year $8.5M McCutchen-type deals I'm worried about. We'd probably be better off just looking at in-house options in that case.

Signing one of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames to an extension may or may not be a good idea. Trading Renfroe and not having to pay him in 2023 has little to no significance in whether or not one of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames are extended. I think that the drop in ticket sales last year has them a little spooked, and I think they may have lost money last year because of it. My guess is that the opening day payroll will be lower than last year's $132M, and they may be hesitant in guaranteeing future money if they are uncertain of future revenue. I think that since much of the drop in ticket sales was mostly seen in group ticket sales, it was probably a carry-over from Covid, as businesses were not willing to spend money to take large groups of employees and customers to a sporting event. Therefore, I think the sales will come back, but there's no certainty of that, so it makes sense that teams would take some caution going into this year. That said, with this trade in the books, Cot's has us estimated at around $102M, and I think we'll add payroll from here. Again, that's just a guess. No one outside of the front office knows for sure.

Renfroe and Wong are one-year deals, in a year in which we already have Burnes and Woodruff. Extensions would be funded with future money, when the Renfroe and Wong contracts will already be off the books (even if Renfroe wasn't traded). You're making an emotional argument (the team owes it to us) rather than a logical financial argument (will the funds be available, and is that the best usage of those funds). The question at hand is not whether they will do an extension of an existing player, but whether they will use the saved money to add players to the 2023 roster. I do not believe that they will have an opening day salary equal to what we saw this year, but with the Hader and Renfroe deals and the guys they recently got rid of, they should have enough money to add $10M-$20M to our current roster for 2023. To those who think that the available free agents market is light in corner IF/DH type players, remember that we could also trade for a higher-salary player. As we see in this trade, it doesn't necessarily cost a lot of "prospect capital" to acquire a decent bat. Maybe we just traded away a guy in an area of surplus (OF) and trade for a guy in an area of need (corner IF).

One other thing that may have helped make the Brewers' decision is that I really think they disliked the poor defense they saw last year. Renfroe isn't atrocious defensively, but he's the type of guy that can cost you games... he has a cannon for an arm, but is sometimes horribly off the mark allowing baserunners to take extra bases or score runs when he should have just held the ball, and he sometimes took really bad routes to balls. The kind that turn outs into triples. Other than Yelich, any of the OFs on the roster should be significant improvements defensively in every category other than arm strength. We're stuck with Yelich, but should get a defensive upgrade by moving on from Renfroe.

Yes you can, and you probably should. Very few quality Brewer players should be held onto until free agency. It sucks, but it's a reality of small-market baseball. The question really becomes "when is the best time to trade them?" rather than "should they be traded?" I figured they may hold onto Renfroe mainly because I figured one year's worth of production may be worth more than the value of what we might get in return. We'll see, but if Junk can be a #3-5 starter for a few seasons, we'll get more value from that (plus what he'd be traded for down the road) than we'll get from one year of Renfroe. Honestly, what we got is more than I thought we would. Now we just have to see if the money that has been freed up is used to pick up a bat for either 3B, 1B, or DH.

Thanks @Eye Black for the scouting reports. Junk will likely be the swing man this year, slotting into the rotation in the coming years as we lose guys to trade/free agency (unless someone is traded this offseason). The other two add cheap bullpen depth, of which we are in need. We are still in line to lose most of our rotation after the 2024 season, with Peralta leaving the following year, so adding someone like Junk, even if he's only a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter, should add a lot of value over the coming years (for those who care about the team beyond the coming season). As to this year, according to Cot's, we're now looking at a payroll somewhere around $102M for 2023. Even a budget hawk like me thinks that we should have room to add some salary to the payroll for the season. I had thought they might hold onto Renfroe and use him and Yelich as corner-OF/DH guys. Now it looks like Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor should get most of the OF reps, so I'd guess the extra payroll will go to acquiring a corner-IF/DH guy. Having some cheap bullpen arms helps here as well, since we won't have to piece together a bullpen through FAs. They may not cost a ton, but a couple million here and a couple million there really eats into payroll. In that regard, guys like we picked up will really help out. The offseason is still young, and we're getting a clearer picture of what we have. Most of the roster is set, and we could have $10-20M to fill in the holes.

Looking through the top prospect list, Berroa was the name I came up with as well. He’s their #15 prospect per MLB.com and he looks to be MLB-ready. Fastball/slider guy who they say may be best suited to the bullpen. Unless the Brewers pick up some salary, I don’t see Wong having a lot of trade value. Berroa could be a decent arm who could help right away, while saving the Brewers $10M for upgrades elsewhere, and opening up a spot for Turang.