monty57

I would venture to say that if Ramirez would be a free agent after this year, he'd get much more than 2 for 20. He's actually owed $30MM for the next two seasons, including his buyout. Simply trading him may be enough for us to tender a market offer to Greinke, and the mere fact we signed him could be the reason we lose Greinke. If we could take advantage of the Dodgers' desparation and get them to send us talented prospects for Ramirez, I would be all over it. I think Hart might actually bring back a better return than Greinke. You get Corey for a year and a half and the possibility of draft picks. I agree, which is why we need to decide on Hart prior to the start of next season. Right now, Hart could bring us back a package of top prospects, but this time next year Hart's trade value will be pretty small. Personally, I'd trade him and let Aoki man RF next year with Gamel at 1B with the prospect(s) we get in trade filling in other holes for league minimum. I am not convinced that this team will be able to compete losing Greinke and filling his and the other holes with rookies and/or free agents. I believe that they will be able to compete sooner by "selling" than they will by taking the draft picks. Either way, next year will probably be down, but selling could make us competitive in 2014, while letting everyone play to free agency could mean we won't be competitive for a long time. To me, it hinges on our having a number of big guaranteed contracts paired with a lack of pre-arby talent playing for league minimum. I can't figure out how we could afford Greinke when we have to dole out millions of dollars to fill every hole in the lineup (shortstop, the bullpen, the starting rotation). Not having good pre-arby guys means that we get stuck with an expensive team that's not all the good, much like this year where we don't have the "role players" to get us over the top. When we can fill these positions for around $450k each, then we have a lot more flexibility to actually get better. That's why I like the thought of getting someone like Pastronicky for K-Rod or Wolf. He's not a star player, but he could fill a gaping hole for league minimum and we could potentially pick him up for nothing. Since we'd get him for nothing, we could always dump him for nothing if a better option arises. It's also why I'm not opposed to trading some of our "lesser trading chips" for middle relievers or guys who may end up being role players on the bench. We need these type of guys, so if we can get them for players we'd lose anyway, and pay them league minimum then we should do it. We'd gain some needed players and, more importantly we'd gain financial flexibility. Meanwhile, guys like Greinke, a healthy Marcum and Hart ought to be able to each bring back at least one player who could actually be good and would also play for league minimum. The most logical way for us to be able to re-sign Greinke (if that's the crux on which our future hinges) would be to get a good number of talented players surrounding him playing for league minimum. Selling would allow us to do that. Even if you develop talent, what happens 3-4 years down the road with a guy like Gallardo? Hopefully we'll have a group of young, talented pitchers forcing their way onto the MLB roster. If that's the case, then we can trade Gallardo to a team in need of pitching and bring back a boatload of young talent. These guys will then be able to fill in at league minimum allowing us to pay whatever expensive players we will then have on our MLB roster. We will always have a need for talented young players playing key roles for league minimum. This could also be how we could "afford" to offer a long-term deal to Greinke. Maybe it's important to have him in the rotation for the next couple of years, but that doesn't mean that this would always be the case. In a few seasons, we may have a lot of talented pitchers, which would afford us the luxury of trading a 31-year-old Greinke with a couple of years on his contract... how much would someone pay for that?

I'm all for it, but I don't think trusting rookies over veteran journeymen has been our m.o. ever since we got into "go for it" mode a few seasons ago. Guys like Fiers and Maldonado getting an opportunity and playing well have been little beacons of light in this otherwise dark season. It's too bad that they'll be playing with Bianchi in AAA in a few weeks.

Yeah, I agree. It's not like the Brewers players go out to the parking lot and tailgate with the fans before the games or something. But with the way they're playing, you would think that's the case :-)

I doubt Texas will offer the combo though for 2 months of Greinke. This is going to be interesting. I really like that Philly is demanding 4-5 prospects for Hamels because they're setting the market high. Now Greinke may seem inexpensive if he "only" costs Holland and Olt.

Trading proven guys for prospects is a crap shoot at best 1) "Proven guys" are often a crap shoot. Just look at Axford, K-Rod, Wolf, Weeks, etc. 2) The closer prospects get to the majors, the less the crap shoot. I think holding players to free agency and losing them for draft picks is much riskier than trading them for guys who are already tearing up AA or AAA, and maybe even have some MLB experience. I highly doubt that Melvin will trade for a bunch of high-upside A-ball players. It's far more likely that he will target guys who can either immediately step into the Brewer lineup or who will be in the majors by next season. There's risk in any move, but I think the riskiest thing we can do right now is "stand pat" and not trade anyone. not to mention that reportedly teams aren't exactly dangling their best pieces out there Where are you getting this? The Dodgers just offered up their best prospect & another high upside guy for Lowrie. The Phillies think they'll get four or five prospects for Hamels, and I'd guess they don't mean four or five bums. So best case, you are adding borderline prospects to a barren farm system. I'd say best case is that you get a bunch of future All-Stars for some rentals. Expected case is that you would get some guys who can fill in vital roles for league minimum, some of whom will not play to their potential, but some of whom will. Worst case is what you're describing... none of the guys we trade for pan out and basically we're in the same shape we'd be in if we just held on and didn't trade anyone. Therefore, trading some of our chips has a chance to make us better in the future, while not trading them means we lose them to free agency and have no talent ("barren farm system") to fill in around them, so we are forced to spend any available cash on "B" or "C" caliber free agents at $5-10MM each. All this because we have a very, very limited chance of getting one more playoff appearance before we collapse. Then you trade guys who are under a reasonable contract for next season like Hart? How exactly do you replace that production in the near term, by signing guys in free agency and likely overpaying to get them to come here? No, you replace their production by trading them for talented young players like those being mentioned who will be ready for the majors by next season. These players will play for around $450k, giving us the financial flexibility to do all kinds of things... maybe even make a fair market offer to Greinke. We should only have to overpay guys in free agency to "fill in holes" if we don't trade some of our "chips" this season. That is the situation in which we wouldn't have MLB ready options. This whole fire sale idea doesn't make much sense to me. "Fire sale" denotes trading everyone for nothing simply to save salary. That doesn't make sense to me either. However, trading good players who are going to leave for nothing to a team in the playoff hunt for some top young prospects who will have 6 year of team control at a reasonable price makes tons of sense to me. Most of the names thrown around (including Marcum due to injury) have little to no value right now. It's not like the farm is going to be replenished by moving these guys. Depends on which poster is "throwing around names." Greinke, a healthy Marcum, and Hart should each bring back top prospects who could turn a slow, arduous rebuild into a quick rebuild. Obviously, we'll need to see if/when Marcum comes back healthy to see if we'll be able to trade him. Meanwhile, guys like K-Rod and Wolf probably wouldn't bring a lot back, but possibly could bring a guy like Pastronicky who is blocked in the Braves organization but is much better than anything we have or maybe just a young relief pitcher who could keep us from having to spend several million on a veteran FA relief pitcher next year. Don't make a trade if it doesn't help you in some way. As for Greinke, if they lose him, put me on record as saying that the near future will be anything but bright. I'd rather play out most of July, just in case. Depends on what you get back. If we could get some qualtiy MLB-ready players from trading Grienke/Marcum/Hart/K-Rod/Wolf/etc, then we could turn things around and at least have some promise of being good in the near future. As to timing, if trading players now brings back a much better return than we'll get if we wait 3-4 weeks, then I would trade them immediately.

The Dodgers want someone now, and Attanasio and Melvin aren't going to wave the white flag until the last week of July if at all. You may be right, but I really hope you're wrong. What Melvin/Attanasio do over the next few weeks can set ourselves up for a good future or can cause us to suffer for the next decade.

1.5 years of Hart is pretty valueable, as in addition to receiving 1.5 years of an All-Star player, the receiving team would get comp picks after next season if he is traded prior to the start of the 2013 season. The Dodgers would certainly want him, but I think there are probably better trading partners. I'd try to get the Dodgers to bite on Aramis Ramirez. They don't seem too worried about money, so his contract shouldn't discourage them, and their current 3B (Juan Uribe) is sporting an OPS around .530. I would think Ramirez could bring back a similar deal to Lowrie (Zach Lee & Gould), and it would rid us of a big contract over the next two seasons.

Welcome back! Assuming he can play adequate defense at SS, I'm warming to the idea of trading someone like K-Rod for Pastronicky because it would allow us to use Marcum, Greinke and possibly Hart for impact talent at other positions. Outside of Profar & Machado, I don't see any potential superstar SS that could be available, and hoping for Profar/Machado may be a pipe dream. Pastronicky is better than what we have, has a lot of team control left, and shouldn't cost too much, as Atlanta doesn't really have a spot for him. If we could land Pastronicky for someone like K-Rod, then we could look at trades like your proposed Greinke to Texas for Olt and Holland or Feliz. However it works out, I'd like to end up with a starting SS and two SP from our "trade chips." Getting Pastronicky for a lesser chip would make this easier to accomplish. If we landed an Olt or Castenallos, that could open up the possibility of trading Ramirez. With the Carlos Lee deal falling through, I'd bet we could get a fortune back from the Dodgers, who are trotting out Juan Uribe and his .538 OPS at 3B. They apparently were willing to part with Zach Lee & Garret Gould for Jed Lowrie, and since money seems to be no object for the current Dodger brass, I'd think Ramirez would bring back as much as Lowrie who is having a good year, but doesn't have the history of Ramirez. So, I'd trade K-Rod or Wolf for Pastronicky who could be our SS for the foreseeable future. Then I'd trade Greinke to Texas for Olt who could be our 3B as soon as next year (Green can hold the fort until then) and Holland or Feliz who could become a fixture in our rotation. Then I'd shop Ramirez to the Dodgers, hoping to pick up a couple of their top pitching prospects. That would leave Marcum and Hart to bring back the best young players, regardless of position.

MLBtraderumors says the Phillies are asking for 4 or 5 prospects for Hamels. They also say Texas has scouted Greinke and Hamels, but someone told Gammons that they weren't going to be in on Greinke. Toronto is heavily scouting Wandy Rodriguez. I hope Melvin moves soon, as some of the big suitors may find other options.

Beachy is having Tommy John and is out the rest of this season and at least half of next season. That's all the more reason Atlanta could be itching to trade for impact starting pitching.

I guess I shouldn't have typed this on the day he pitched :-(

I don't think anyone's gaga over Pastronicky. If we could get him for some of our lesser trade chips, then we could use our bigger trade chips to go after better players at other positions. He's probably good enough to start, but not good enough to block a good prospect like Simmons. We don't have any good SS's, so I'd take him at a low cost. Pastronicky shouldn't be in the Greinke, Marcum or Hart talks unless preceded by "Teheran isn't enough, also give us..."

and Wolf is still sucking a month or so from now Wolf was pathetic in April, but has been okay in May and June. Not stellar by any means, but he hasn't been "sucking" lately.

...and when you go to the Dodgers site, the first headline that hits you is "Dodgers fall out of first place as losing streak hits five games." I smell some desperation in the air. I don't know how they'd match up with us in prospects they could send back, but we have a lot of pieces they'd covet. 1) They have some pitching prospects, but are any of them good enough return for Greinke? Would a package of Zach Lee and Eovaldi be asking too much/too little for Greinke? That would give us a good pitcher to put in the rotation now and next year, and a top prospect who's a couple of years out. 2) A healthy Marcum for either Eovaldi or Lee might be more realistic, and he would be an upgrade for them. 3) Maybe they'd want Wolf back. I don't know how much he's worth, but if we couldn't find a match for Marcum or Greinke, LA could be a team that would trade for Wolf, as he had some good years as a Dodger. 4) I'm sure they'd love Hart to replace Rivera - an outfield of Kemp, Ethier, Hart would be dominant. 5) Their current 3B situation is Uribe and Hairston, so they could use a veteran slugging 3B, and if they like big, they'd love Ramirez's contract. If we could get rid of that contract before it balloons, and get something back in return, I'd be really happy.

Thornburg maybe, as he looked okay until he gave up the homers when he got tired. Peralta probably needs to get things straigntened out in AAA. When he was briefly up, the announcers said something to the effect that he has some confidence issues. If that's true, throwing him to the wolves in the MLB rotation when he's obviously "not right" is probably the worst thing the Brewers could do.

That's probably the plan. I don't mind too much if Fiers gets sent down for a while and Estrada keeps starting because it is very likely that we will need both of them in the 2013 rotation, so both of them need to start. I agree that I'd rather see Thornburg and Peralta getting more AAA starts, so Hernandez is as good an option as any to eat up starts for the rest of a year in which we "sell." That is, unless we bring back an MLB ready starting pitcher or two in trade. As far as Green, he might as well get sent to AAA, as he's pretty much the last guy on the bench on Roenicke's Brewers. If he's not going to play at all, he should be starting in AAA.

Good post HiandTight, Pastronicky is a very realistic target, and may not even take Greinke. Simmons is younger, better and has replaced him on the Braves roster, so he really has nowhere to go with the Braves. If we could get him in some package of our "lesser chips," and we could get a couple of MLB ready starting pitchers with our "big chips," we could infuse a lot of young talent quickly. An IF of Gamel, Weeks, Pastronicky, Ramirez, Lucroy and an OF of Braun, Schafer/Gomez, Aoki isn't that bad for a "down year," when we could break in the MLB ready guys we traded for and our own young pitchers. It's possible we could have a quick rebuild, but it will take some good moves this season from Melvin. praying Texas is happy with Andrus and thinks that Greinke pushes what's already the best team in the game over the top and trades arguably the top prospect in the game of baseball because of the heartbreak of the last two years. I'm really interested in seeing what Greinke will bring back in trade. I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high, as he's probably not going to bring back a Profar/Machado, but the above sentence pretty much sums it up. Maybe, just maybe there will be a bidding war and some GM will get overenthusiastic with playoff fever and give up more than we'd expect. More realistically, I'm looking at someone like the Braves and thinking what it might take to get Pastronicky.

Thanks for the links. Somehow I forgot about Estrada, who will be on the team as either a starter or a reliever. I'd agree that there's a really good chance that Fiers will be in the 2013 rotation. However, a rotation of Yo, Estrada, Fiers and two question marks isn't screaming "playoffs." As to the bullpen, what the heck are we going to do? I agree with torts that it's a good thing we didn't rush to lock up Axford, as Melvin mentioned he may do last offseason. He'll be our closer next year, but we have him under control into his 30's, so there's no reason to guarantee him money long-term in case this year's problems continue. For the rest of the 'pen, do we want to pay millions of dollars to retain Loe, Veras and Parra? If we don't, then we don't have any bullpen arms, and if we do, then we're spending a lot of money to retain possibly the biggest weakness in a year filled with weaknesses. I really hope Melvin's able to bring back some young pitchers who can step into MLB roles pretty quickly, or we will be spending a lot of money on free agent pitchers next offseason. This adds to my fear that Melvin will go with "MLB proven" guys rather than "MLB-ready" guys in the likely event he trades Greinke and others this season.

Which is significant evidence that simply having Greinke at the top of your rotation does not ensure success.

He didn't look bad last year, and I had hopes that he could be an inexpensive bullpen arm for the Brewers. Any chance he clears waivers and returns to the Stars?

This may not be the correct thread for this, but I'll try anyway. Does anyone know the free agent/arby situation for Loe & Veras? Brewerfan's salary page says they'll be free agents after this season, but Cot's says they both have a year of arbitration left. If they are gone after this season, we could be looking at Yo and Axford as the only guys on the current roster who are "locks" for the entire 2013 pitching staff.

Theoretically, I would take the best deal that is better than the perceived value of the two comp picks plus the value of getting 15 or so more starts from Greinke minus the cost to sign them and the cost to pay Greinke for the remainder of the year. If you cannot find a deal better than this, then hold Greinke and take the picks. However, if Greinke is not traded, fans will see him "leaving for nothing," and will not like it. I don't know how much effect this would have on future ticket sales. Really, what Melvin has to do is find one GM/owner who has playoff fever and dreams of riding down Main Street during the ticker tape parade, and get that GM/owner to overpay. Nothing is completely out of the question when someone thinks a move will win them the World Series.

By having multiple pitchers that are cheap 2/3's next year it opens up a lot of possibilities for this team payroll wise. We have enough "chips" that selling could really, really help us quickly. If we traded Greinke, Marcum, Hart and the other guys who will be FA's at season's end like K-Rod, we could probably get three or four talented young guys who could be on next year's team for league minimum. That means we could still have Braun, Ramirez, Weeks, Yo, Aoki, Lucroy, etc and have around $50MM to "play with." We may not be playoff caliber, but we could be on the quick path to getting there, especially if the "MLB ready" guys we get are some SPs and a SS. I am really interested in seeing what Greinke will eventually bring back in trade.

Re limiting his options: Does "won't make Greinke available to every team" mean "won't proactively call, but will listen to offers" or "will not even discuss Greinke with those teams?" Who knows, maybe a team out of the current playoff race wants to trade for Greinke so they can make a huge extension offer before he hits free agency, or maybe a "can't touch" prospect may become available if a team's owner gets playoff fever. There's a difference between "there are probably only a few teams who are realistic trade partners," and "I'm not making him available to every team." To me, it's odd to say that "he's not available" to every team, as he should be available to whoever makes the best offer. Re the return we'll get: As long as Melvin is targeting guys with a lot of service time remaining, I'm fine. I'll really only be upset if he's traded for a couple of inferior players who have "names," but only 2-3 years of service time remaining. We need high upside, inexpensive, long-term answers, not short-term stopgaps to "keep us competitve."

You & I are on the same page. I cringed when I read those two sentences. Why flat out say that you're not making Greinke available to every team? I'd like to think that Melvin would accept calls from anyone interested, but it just seems odd to say something like that. There are only 29 other teams in the league, and that number is limited more when you whittle it down to playoff contenders. Why not call all of them just to see what they'll offer. You might be pleasantly surprised. This isn't even a situation where you don't want to trade him to a rival. Since this is a "rental" situation, I'd be happy if the Reds, Pirates or Cardinals would send us their best prospect(s) for a couple of months of Greinke. We're not going anywhere this season, and the prospects would make us better in the future and them worse. That said, thanks for the link reilly. It's good to see that the Brewer brass is being realistic about the situation. Melvin is notorious about keeping everything out of the media. Opening up even this much probably means he's talked to every other GM already and probably has ten offers on the table.