monty57

Not to mention they started 14-20 last year. With the knowledge that they would soon get a big boost from Hart and Greinke coming back, we had just obtained Greinke and Marcum and would have them for another season, we had Prince for his final season, and we had money to spend on mid-season upgrades. Conversely this year we've played poorly with a completely healthy team and have now lost two key cogs (currently being replaced with AAAA fodder), we are looking at losing a lot of talent at the end of the season, and we can't have much money laying around (or prospects to trade) to upgrade the roster. It's certainly not to soon to "start thinking about" selling. It's probably early to actually sell, other than the above mentioned fact that the Yankees and Red Sox may bid against each other for K-Rod and we may be able to get a lot more than he's worth in trade. If we can do that, then we should pull the trigger on that trade now. We do have talent on the team and play in a division without a dominant team, so we could certainly turn things around and eliminate the thought of selling. But right now, Melvin should be contemplating what to do if we don't turn things around. As far as Greinke and Marcum, if we're going to lose them at season's end anyway, I would rather see us get something in return, so if we are a long-shot for the playoffs in a month or so, I'd start shopping them. Hart is another possibility, as he will probably have more value mid-season 2012 then he would during the offseason, so if we could get good return, I'd look into it. Morgan just makes sense because we have 3 CF on the roster. If we play Hart at 1B, we may need him on the roster, but if we could trade him for a younger corner OF/1B, I'd do it. The extra wild card spot probably means we won't sell, but I think it would be better for the future of the franchise to do a mid-season re-tool for next year than it is to miss out on the playoffs and lose all the talent we're set to lose.

I don't know what to expect in return, but getting the Yankees and Red Sox to bid against each other for K-Rod sounds like a good plan. Personally, I'd shoot for young (pre-arby) talent, but I'm the odd guy who cares as much or more about the future as I do this season.

And it makes no sense to degrade your best trading chip by moving him out of RF. A lot of trade value is perception. I doubt that other GMs would perceive Hart to have less trade value because he was moved to 1B due to an emergency need. In fact, I think it would increase his trade value in that he could be viewed as a two position player. I think he would only be downgraded if he was moved to 1B because the Brewers didn't think he could play RF anymore. I'll take the following, please. 1. Aoki RF 2. Weeks 2b 3. Braun LF 4. Ramirez 3b 5. Hart 1b 6. Lucroy C 7. Gomez/Morgan CF 8. Gonzalez SS 9. Pitcher That's probably our best lineup, but I'd guess that Roenicke would put either Lucroy or the CF platoon at #8. He likes the #8 hitter to be able to clear the pitcher spot, and Gonzalez is viewed as more of a power-hitting SS than an OBP guy, so Roenicke likes him in the 5-7 spots, which are more "RBI spots." Basically, the same thing he did last year with Yuni.

Paul, I share your feelings, and it's not because of our current record. This offseason I mentioned that the Brewers should have a quick trigger finger to sell if things aren't going their way simply due to the talent we're going to lose when the season's over. We're not there yet, but a slow start and two key cogs getting lost to season-ending injuries has certainly made me believe the possibility we should be "sellers" this season has gone up dramatically. -Trading Morgan seemed to me to be a no-brainer once Braun was exonerated. We should have shopped him then, and we should have shopped him to the Red Sox a couple weeks ago, as he's far more valuable than Byrd. We didn't do it then, but there has to be a team out there right now who could use him and would be willing to give up either a relief pitcher or a corner OF/1B who has a few seasons left of team control. -If we're down in the standings in a month or so, we should start seriously start taking bids for Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod (unless Melvin is sure we're extending one of Greinke or Marcum). We could get some decent talent in return for the three of them, as there are always teams looking for pitching mid-season. -If we can get a SS in one of the pitcher trades above, we could also look at trading Gonzalez so that we aren't vested into paying a lot for him next season. -I would look at trading Hart this season or next offseason. I'd probably hold off another year or so before shopping Weeks, but I wouldn't turn down an offer for Weeks if it blew me away. Again, we're not there yet, but we're a lot closer to "being there" then we were a month ago.

I think lot of RPs teams have developed started out as SP. When they fell down the SP depth chart and it became obvious they weren't going to make the MLB team as a starter, they moved to the bullpen. So while I agree with Ennder's point, I think our former scouts/drafters did a horrific all-around job of evaluating pitching talent. Jack Z's willingness in Seattle to move young pitchers for young hitters, combined with his inability to find pitching for the Brewers makes me wonder how much value he places on pitching vs hitting. That said, it will be very nice when some of our pitchers start to make it out of the minors and onto the MLB squad. Rivas will hopefully soon be a good example of a bullpen arm we drafted and projected as a starter who ends up being a valuable part of our bullpen for a number of years. There will be more in the future, as guys like Thornberg, Jungman and Bradley elevate through the ranks and older or less talented guys realize their path to the majors is in the 'pen.

As to how we cover the position, I guess I'm for a fix which allows someone who can help the team in the future to get additional playing time. This could mean Aoki getting more PT in RF (Hart to 1B), bringing up Green or someone else, or maybe trading for someone who has more than a few months left on their contract (i.e. trading Morgan for a younger 1B/corner OF). I'm not really big on making a short-term move, especially if it means trading away prospects for that short-term fix. We're already going to be scrambling to put a team together next offseason so I don't want to make a rash decision now which could make things worse. I'm also not big on handing the position to Ishikawa/Conrad. If we're going to do that, we might not be too far from calling teams to see what they'd trade us for Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod.

I have worked in orthopedics for quite a long time and noted on my twitter feed that the training staff immediately did a stability test on his knee. I had a lot of people asking me not to jump to conclusions but it was 100% apparent that they were concerned with the stability of his ACL. Allowing him to jog to the dugout and take a swing in the batters circle is attributable to a high amount of adrenaline going through his system blocking out a good deal of the pain...and a young mans desire not to get pulled from a game. In my opinion the training staff handled this perfectly and there was no further damage that could have been done from a little jog and one swing. You have to let the athlete tell you what hurts and what doesn't feel right. He felt ok for jogging...but the rotation allowed by the torn ACL was felt during a swing... It turns out that he didn't have a play on the final out, but could he have injured it further if he had to make a play / run around on the knee? In other words, even if he couldn't damage the ACL further, does running on a knee with a torn ACL increase the risk of damaging other things (like the MCL)?

How much experience does Hart have at 1B? Hart was drafted as a 1B, but was moved off first because Fielder was ahead of him. He moved to 3B and couldn't play there, so he ended up in the OF. I know last year he said he didn't want to play 1B, but this spring he seemed much more open to the idea, and was getting some reps there prior to his injury. There would be a learning curve, but I'd think he'd do okay there. If this injury is going to keep Gamel out for a long time, then moving Hart to first seems to be the best plan, as Aoki is better than Ishikawa/Conrad. However, if I had to bet, I'd say we'll see an Ishikawa / Conrad platoon, and Melvin will start burning up the phone lines to trade whatever prospect he has to get a stopgap solution at 1B for our all in year. As I think about it, this may be a good time to see if there are any suitors for Morgan. He could probably net a 1B if there's a team that matches up, and then we could keep Hart in RF with Aoki/Gomez in CF. If we could find a decent match, I'd like that more than Morgan/Gomez in CF, Aoki in RF and Hart at 1B.

Unless you can show me how doing that relates in any way to extreme examples that nobody ever does or would do I think it best to deal with reality. Sometimes using extremes illustrates a point. The point was you should play the more talented player if he isn't hurt or in need of rest, whether that player is Braun, Hart, Weeks, Gallardo, Greinke or Gamel. Gamel is the more talented player relative to Ishiwaka, so unless he is injured or needs a day off, he should play over Ishikawa. That's reality. Every time a manager "goes against the odds" and plays the worse player, he hurts the chance for a team to win. Odds are just that. In a small sample, going against the odds can work, but over time it usually doesn't. Now, if Gamel was hurt, Ishikawa could have been the better choice and Roenicke made the right move. I've ceded that point multiple times. However, all I said was that Gamel shouldn't have needed a day of rest after just receiving three days off, and you won't cede that point. You seem to think that I'm on an anti-Roenicke rant. I'm not. I'm simply saying that barring injury a mid-20's player in good shape shouldn't need a day's rest when he's rested three of the previous five days.

Rickie will turn it around, but he's been pretty bad offensively and defensively. However, with our current roster there's not much that can be done about it. The only backup is Izturis, and I'd put a slumping Rickie up there with a blindfold over his eyes over Izturis at the plate. Also, other than putting Rickie #2 and CF leadoff, there isn't a lot we could change in the lineup. We don't have many "top of the order" hitters, and I don't want to move Hart out of an RBI position. Of course, we could call up Conrad or Green, but that's just crazy talk. We need "this year's Kotsay" and three CF's on the roster.

Why would you let him go back onto the field? Send him back to get an MRI. I put that on the training staff at least as much as Roenicke, but I can't understand how you would let him go back onto the field with possible knee damage.

but the financials were very different at that point I think this is a sad thing about the current financial situation in baseball. There will be less "legendary" careers, as it'll be a lot harder for pitchers to get 300 wins or hitters to get 3,000 hits when teams are keeping players in the minors longer because of service time concerns and teams trying to maximize their value by keeping their prospects in the minors so they get them for more of their prime years.

It would scare me to not have a backup SS. I don't like Izturis, but I think we need a second guy on the team who can play SS. Remember that Roenicke's backup plan earlier this year was to put Ramirez at SS. If Gonzalez got injured in the first inning, I don't like the thought of watching Aramis Ramirez playing a whole game at SS. As far as Ishikawa, we now have to see what happens with the Gamel knee injury. If he can't play for a few days, or is DL'd, then Ishikawa will be our starter. If it does require a DL stint, it will be interesting to see if Conrad is called up and how he is used. I'd probably platoon 1B with Conrad and Ishikawa and then send Ishikawa back down when Gamel returned. However, I doubt that's what would happen. More likely Ishikawa would get every start and Conrad would only get a few PH appearances and then get sent back down. Hopefully, Gamel's fine and we don't have to worry about it.

Unfortunately, with the Narveson injury Estrada may be counted on to be a starter for us next year, at least long enough to give Jungman and Bradley some time in AA/AAA. If he shows some competence as a starter this year, we may be comfortable with him and Peralta as our #4/5 guys next year. If he "gets exposed" and pitches terribly when he gets regular starts, then we'll know we need to find another option this offseason. I know a lot of people are in "go for it all" mode and may not like this, but Estrada can kind of get a trial by fire this season. If he succeeds it's good for the Brewers now and in the future. If not, then we bring up Peralta which is what many want to happen anyway. Finally, it is still likely that we will have more injuries in the rotation throughout the year. Hopefully not another season/career ending injury, but someone else will probably end up on the DL. That's when I expect Peralta to get his first start(s). Then when that pitcher comes off the DL Melvin will need to decide whether to keep Estrada or Peralta in the rotation.

...and when Gamel needs a day off, Hart should start at 1B with Aoki in RF. Really, Morgan (coming off a near .800 OPS playoff season in which the fans loved him) should have just been traded for a RH bench bat and a prospect when Aoki was signed and Braun was exonerated. Now we're stuck with three CF, two of whom are very similar players, and because of last season we're probably going to play the less talented of the two the majority of the time while the more talented is losing PAs to the likes of Travis Ishikawa and Cesar Izturis.

Correlation does not equal causation. Maybe Gamel would've hit a couple of home runs if he didn't sit. And maybe sitting did help him clear his head. Just because he got a hit, doesn't mean it's because he had a couple of days off. If Roenicke sat him because he thought he was still hurting or he saw something in his swing, that's fine. But if he sat him because he had a couple of 0-fers, then that's bad managing. Well said Raw Biz. As a general rule, unless the better player is injured or needs some rest, I think the better player should play. Everyone gets banged up or tired at some point, so we have backups to fill in when necessary. That's why I prefaced the sentence which Thurston bolded with "...if he's healthy." Maybe his shoulder was sore and needed another day's rest, in which case he should have sat. If the shoulder was fine, he definitely shouldn't have needed a days rest after just getting three of them. To take this to extremes, if Roenicke sat a healthy Braun for a week and played Corey Patterson in his place, it would be a dumb move, even if Patterson somehow hit .750 for that week. Gamel is not Braun, but he is better than Ishikawa, so if he's healthy and not in need of rest, let him play.

HiandTight, both MJLiverock and I have posted dictionary definitions of net revenue, so are you not reading what MJLiverock and I are writing when we define net revenue, or do you not understand what we've written? We both work in the financial field and from what you've written, your understanding of the Forbes article is incorrect. Again, here is what I put in my last post: Net revenue typically refers to a company's revenue net of discounts and returns. Net revenue generally does not account for the cost of goods sold, general and administrative expenses or other costs (those are typically incorporated in the operating income calculation). In my example, Prince's salary is a "cost of goods sold." So again, if the Brewers net revenues (revenues minus discounts and returns) were only $19.2MM, they would barely have been able to afford to pay Prince last year. How does that not make sense? But the Forbes article doesn't mention net revenue, that is a term you mistakenly used when referencing Forbes' operating income number. I defined operating income in my previous post. You seem to be interchanging financial terms and assuming they all mean "profit." I run two businesses, and I wish my net revenues were my profits. Unfortunately, they're not the same thing.

I think Estrada is all but a lock for one of those spots next season, & I think we're looking at Yo, Peralta, Estrada, Wolf, ? for 2013 at this point. My guess is that Melvin will trade for a(nother) veteran SP this coming offseason, unless a FA can be found at a bargain cost. I know there are a lot of options for each of those question marks, but we don't know for sure who will be in the rotation beyond Yo, so I hesitate to guess what will happen. We could go a lot of different directions, and much will depend on whether we're going to continue to push all-in to give us the absolute best chance to make the playoffs in that given year, and how our prospects look this year.

True, and like Harper, Braun was called up because they wanted to "win now" after seasons of losing, and the third base platoon (wasn't it Counsell/Graffanino?) wasn't producing. It was no surprise that Braun was able to outproduce that powerhouse duo, and it won't be a surprise if Harper outproduces the other candidates for the job in Washington. The Brewers have been less accepting of rookies since the Braun call-up, but I think the Brewers are going to be forced to change their strategy in the near future, at least as far as the pitching goes. With Narveson potentially gone, we will probably not only have to exercise Wolf's option and bring up Peralta, but also start whichever of Thornberg, Fiers, Nelson, Jungman, Bradley seem most ready. That is, unless we extend someone, trade for someone else or Melvin once again goes shopping in the Free Agent Starting Pitcher bargain bin.

There's no way he'll be ready for next season now that there's labrum damage also. I doubt he'll throw much, if at all, before February. He'll probably end up recovering in the minors for a good part of next season. ...and if that's true, there's no chance the Brewers would offer him arby, so unless they cut him and sign him back as a free agent, his days as a Brewer could be over. That makes next year's rotation Gallardo, ?, ?, ?, ? to go along with a lot of our payroll budget already tied up in some big, guaranteed contracts for the next few seasons, and not a lot of pre-arby players on the roster.

But he's not going to be a .900+ OPS guy over the course of a season. Over a season it's possible. Doing it over three seasons while he's 33, 34 and 35 is far less likely. Regressing offensive stats combined with defense likely going from bad to worse while the paycheck balloons is my reason for concern over the contract, not what Ramirez will do offensively this season. Offensively, Ramirez is much better than he showed the first few games, and worse than he has been the last few games. That's why "small sample" is so often mentioned. Based solely on his being on the wrong side of his "prime years," if I had to guess, I'd say he'll probably end the season somewhere below what he did last season, but "average" stats have a wide deviation, so it's impossible to predict whether he'll end up better or worse than last season. "Normal" Ramirez is not comparable to Fielder offensively, so pitchers may be more likely to pitch around or intentionally walk Braun with Ramirez behind him than they were with Fielder behind him. If Ramirez regresses over the next few years and Roenicke refuses to move Ramirez from the cleanup spot, then that likelihood probably goes up. I personally don't think Braun should change his approach, as his current approach makes him among the top players ever to play the game, but if pitchers stop throwing him strikes, his walk rate will go up... he's not Vlad.

Robin Yount was pushed. Albert Pujols was pushed. Ken Griffey, Jr was pushed. Alex Rodriguez was pushed. Elite talent should probably be judged differently than "Top 100" talent, which should probably be judged differently than "everyday talent." The Brewers seem to like to make sure players get a full season at every level, but there are plenty of Hall of Famers who made it to the big leagues early.

That was pretty much my first thought as well. All it takes is 6 extra intentional walks / "pitch arounds" to raise the walk rate by one nominal percentage point over a season. It seems reasonable to believe that could happen.

Well, the Cards, Atlanta, and the Rockies will have three of the better hitting lineups in the NL this year for sure. What scares me, though, is that they gave up 18 runs in the 3 games to Houston. The Astros have looked pretty good offensively this year. Martinez, Altuve and Schafer all look like pretty good young players. With Lee at clean-up and Lowrie now back from injury they could have a decent offense this year. Of course, they could fall off a cliff, but they have some talent and have been hitting well against pretty much everyone. They don't have the pitching to compete this season, but we may be glad in a couple of years that they're no longer in the NL Central. As to the Brewers, barring injury I can't imagine that Gallardo or Greinke will pitch poorly all season. They're both young and good. Marcum just had a so-so start, hurting his numbers some, but he's been decent so far, and Wolf looked decent last night (albeit in San Diego which can make most pitchers look good). The Narveson injury certainly hurts, but at least we have some options to replace him this season. I don't like how bad our starting pitching has been, but I think it'll even out over the course of the season.

He was simply giving you a snapshot of how he went aobu tdeciding when to give a rookie a day off. We already knew Gamel isn't going to play 162 anyway. I seem to remember something about the 140 - 150 range mentioned though I do not remember where or if it was Ron who said that. Given he isn't going to play 162 it seems logical to pick and choose those off days. Seems to me to make more sense to sit him after a couple rough days, both offensively and defensively, than when he is really hot. But he just had three days off in a row (two games and an off day). Surely if he's healthy no one would expect him to need need a rest after three days off/two days on. If weeks needs a day off we need to have a player on our team that can spell him. Conrad was banged up to start the year so not breaking camp was acceptable. Continuing to ignore the fact that our ability to rest players, make late game moves, and ultimately win close games is jeopardized is starting to frustrate me. Me too. I guess the decision will be forced on them if Weeks, Gonzalez or Ramirez get a "day-to-day" injury. If one of them can't go, but isn't going to the DL (or paternity), will we continue to play without a backup for 2B, SS or 3B, or will we finally be forced to send someone...Ishikawa... down and bring up Conrad?