monty57

I think he's going to like hitting in that stadium.

For the Padre organization, the importance of the minor leagues is not to win minor league pennants, but to develop their top talent to become major league players. I would guess that Suppan could teach his teammates a lot about what it takes to be a MLB player. As for why he'd continue to play... because he can. Someone is willing to pay him to do something he loves, so why not play? It's not like someone from the BBWA is going to say "I was going to vote him into the Hall of Fame, but now I won't because he finished his career in AAA."

I remember one of the Packers' lineman (Ken Ruettgers or someone around that era) used to be his own agent. It's risky, but if the player is relatively intelligent, has some trust in the organization, and hires a competent attorney to help, he could work without an agent. On the flip side, I could see the organization looking pretty bad in the eyes of other players if they negotiated with a player and signed a ridiculously team-friendly deal. It may come back & bite them when dealing with potential future free agents. I believe the Saints signed Rickey Williams to a ridiculous deal after Williams hired a rap star to be his agent, and after there was a big backlash they tore up the contract and signed him to a more standard deal.

Games played by Rickie Weeks / Aramis Ramirez: 2005 - 96 / 123 or 105 games not played 2006 - 95 / 157 or 72 games not played 2007 - 118 / 132 or 74 games not played 2008 - 129 / 149 or 46 games not played 2009 - 37 / 82 or 205 games not played 2010 - 160 / 124 or 40 games not played 2011 - 118 / 149 or 57 games not played I'm pretty sure that if the organization chooses to use Green as the replacement for Weeks & Ramirez, he will find a decent amount of playing time over the next few years. I would be happy if the Brewers could swing a trade to pick up LaPorta if Cleveland is ready to give up on him, but I don't want to see the Brewers give up a good prospect (like Green) to get him. LaPorta has the potential to be good, but to this point of his MLB career (909 AB), he's hit more like a SS than a 1B, and apparently isn't very good with the glove either - particularly in the OF. I'd bet that Aoki will put up better overall value in LF than LaPorta, and that Gamel will put up better value than LaPorta at 1B. Therefore, I wouldn't give up much in value to get him.

If we extend Greinke and if Narveson improves a tiny bit I'm not too worried about the future of the rotation. Gallardo, Greinke, Young guy, Narveson and then someone like Oswalt or Edwin Jackson etc as a free agent. Pitching isn't nearly as scarce as it was even a couple of years ago. If we extend Greinke, I will issue a huge sigh of relief. I guess my thought was what if Peralta is pitching so well that he might be the better option over say Wolf in 2012 and be a substantial financial saving that might allow us to take on salary at the deadline in another manner. I look at it as risk management for this season. Even if Peralta were an upgrade over Wolf or Marcum, if the playoffs are on the line, Melvin would not want to take the risk of trading one of his pitchers to make room for Peralta, and then having another pitcher go down with an injury. We're better off for the playoff run this year if Peralta is kept in AAA to step in for when that injury occurs. I like your line of thought, as what we're doing this offseason may not be the best long-term strategy for the team, but since Melvin is in full on "go for it" mode, I don't see us selling unless we're in third place or worse come trade deadline.

I think that will all depend on how the season's going. Barring any extensions, if we start out slow then there's a good chance that we try to trade Greinke, Wolf and Marcum rather than losing them at the end of the season. If we're leading the division, then I highly doubt we'd trade away a good SP to replace him with a rookie. Peralta is good insurance in the minors, and will probably have to step in at some point this season to fill in for an injured starter. I'm excited that we're going into a season in which we once again should compete for a Division title. However, you've hit upon my biggest worry beyond this year: how will we deal with potentially losing 3/5 of our starting rotation after the season. I'm still hopeful we'll extend Greinke. Beyond that, I hope we make the playoffs this year, but making the playoffs may mean a worse team in the future, as we will not have traded Wolf and Marcum for young talent, but rather will probably have traded some young talent for a better chance of winning this year. To me, that makes this a very pivotal season, as going for it could mean we're in for a couple of down seasons while we wait for our pitching to come around, while "selling" could mean we've given up on a promising year, but will be in better shape for playoff contention for the next few seasons.

I'd debate that, the Ramirez contract and signing takes that distinction. You're probably right, but I hope you're wrong. It's going to be pretty ugly if he's making $16MM in a couple of years and he can no longer play the field or hit well.

Ditto. I am a bit tired of the ESPN & MLB.tv guys continually saying that Melvin needs to find "a replacement to Prince Fielder at 1B," and going on about how the Brewers need to pick up a veteran 1B. No one ever says anything about Gamel (good or bad, it's like he doesn't exist), just that Fielder's gone and the Brewers are toast unless they pick up a veteran FA. I really, really want Gamel to succeed.

I just worry that Taylor Green will be lost. I hope he's in AAA to start the season, as he will get no PA's if he's on the Milwaukee bench. If Green plays everyday in AAA, he can come up when/if either Ramirez or Weeks get injured, which unfortunately means he'll probably get a month+ as a regular starter in Milwaukee.

If he is suspended, would he still be able to play with the team through Spring Training?

Probably not a bad thing to get a veteran presence in AAA to mentor Schafer & Gindl. It doesn't sound like he'll even be in big league camp, so Roenicke won't be able to use a "hot spring" to justify giving him a roster spot. I know that's supposed to be on Melvin, but it seems he lets the manager choose who his bench players will be.

I'd guess if Braun is out, Aoki & Morgan with bat 1/2 with Hart, Ramirez & Weeks 3-5. A healthy Weeks is a very good thing, and he & Hart do give a lot of flexibility to the order. If everyone's healthy and Braun's in the lineup, we are going to score a lot of runs.

Of course, you can look at it another way and say that we could now have a player going into his first year of arby, who we could lose in a couple seasons, and instead we have the same player at league minimum who we will have for the next five seasons. We will have Gamel at a relatively inexpensive price tag through his prime. It stinks for Gamel, but is good for the Brewers.

Why do people think Gamel is going to be bad defensively at 1B? He had good feet, very good range, and soft hands. He is more athletic than Fielder as well. Not to mention that it should be easier moving from a corner IF position (3B) to 1B than it would be to move from the OF to 1B, and he was given a whole year in AAA to make the transition.

Deep down, I think Mat Gamel has always been a good hitter, and will be a good hitter at the MLB level. The biggest obstacle will be Roenicke if he gives Gamel a short leash and routinely benches him to put Hart at 1B. If Braun is suspended, I don't think this will be much of an issue for at least the first 50 games, so Gamel should get almost two months of continuous PT and I hope he shines. Deep down I also believe that if Gamel is not successful, it will be very difficult for any rookie position player to ever garner playing time in Milwaukee in the near future.

If instead he likes it here enough that staying is pretty high on his priority list Or if he likes the concept of guaranteeing himself a very large amount of money, thus eliminating the risk that a blown shoulder this season would seriously diminish his ability to earn any more money as a baseball player. His risk is down to one year, but it's still a significant risk, and is probably the biggest reason many players these days are signing extensions when they are offered rather than playing for free agency. Boras clients are the notable exception to this.

It's great to hear Greinke speaking publicly about being open to a contract extension. I like that we finally have some minor league pitching depth, but I'm much more comfortable with them easing into the 3,4, 5 spots into the rotation over the next few years than I am hoping one of them will be an ace. If one of them does develop into someone who can make Greinke our #3, then I'd be really happy. If Marcum wants to add a year or two extension and it fits in the budget, then great, but Melvin should focus on Greinke first. Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency. There are "casual fans" I talk with who formed their opinion on Wolf after his first few months, and nothing Wolf does seems to be enough to change their opinion. I'm certainly happy with what he's done.

Please someone help me before I completely go off the "worry ledge". I want to get back to the "The Brewers will be just fine ledge" As others stated, if Braun is out for 50 games, the projected effect of the suspension will be the projected difference between Braun and his replacement (Aoki) over 50 games. Others have mentioned the WAR difference, which looks at real and projected outputs of the players. Braun was at 7.8 WAR last year (Fangraphs), but around 4.4-5.0 the previous three years, so the projected effect of a Braun suspension should range from 1-3 games, depending on how you feel Braun and Aoki will play. If you compare MVP Braun with replacement-level Aoki, then you're looking at around a 3 game loss. If you're looking at 2010 Braun (4.4 WAR) vs decent Aoki, we may only lose a game or less. I think Aoki will be fine as long as you aren't looking for a power hitter. He should have a decent average, decent OBP, good base-running ability and good defense (albeit with a weak arm). While anyone would prefer to have Braun in the lineup, I don't dislike the lineup of Aoki, Morgan, Hart, Ramirez, Weeks, Gamel, Lucroy, Gonzalez. The Gamel/Gonzalez/Ramirez vs Fielder/Yuni/McGehee arguement has been hashed out many times, but I see the combined total of the three to be pretty close to a wash. Fielder you may recall clearly had an off year in 2010 with just 83 RBI. As bad as McGehee's season was, he did drive in 67 runs and Betancourt for all people's angst drove in 68. Right now I'd take a combined 135 RBI from Gamel and Gonzalez because its going to take better hitting from then than Casey and Yuni provided to get that much production with a weaker middle of the order. If we're going to look at RBIs, it's really more relevant to look at RBI opportunities. McGehee and Yuni had a lot of RBI opportunities because Fielder and Braun got on base a lot in fornt of them. If Aoki and Morgan can get on base at a .350-ish clip, Hart, Ramirez, and Weeks will have a lot of RBI opportunities. They are good hitters and therefore should have a lot of RBIs. If Gamel can sit somewhere in the .780-.820 OPS range, he'll have plenty of RBIs with Hart, Ramirez and Weeks in front of him. They won't get on as much as Braun & Fielder, but Gamel should hit better than either Yuni or McGehee did last year. Good hitter + lot of RBI opportunities = lot of RBI. Bad hitter + lot of RBI opportunities = quite a few RBI. Good hitter or bad hitter with few RBI opportunities = not a lot of RBI (although the good hitter would get more just by knocking himself in on HR). Last year, Ramirez, Morgan, Hart and Weeks all got on base 35-36% of the time. Braun was around 39% of the time. As long as Roenicke leaves him in the lineup, Gamel will have plenty of RBI at season's end. We have a lot of good hitters in our lineup, so our lineup should score runs without Braun, and will still be among the best run-producing lineups in the NL once Braun is back.

We have five OF: Braun, Hart, Gomez, Morgan & Aoki - if Braun is suspended, I doubt we'll add a vet for 50 games. We'd likely just use Schafer or Gindl We are set at IF: Gamel, Weeks, Gonzalez, Ramirez, Lucroy backed up by Kottaras, Izturis and either Conrad or Green We are set in the rotation: Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson The only possible addition I can see would be in the bullpen, but we have enough arms that I doubt we even add someone here. If we do, it won't be anyone expensive.

A million things could go wrong that could still make this team worse than last years though. Sure, but there are also a lot of things that went wrong last year which hopefully won't go wrong this year: We lost Hart & Greinke in Spring Training, costing around a month's service for both of them. We picked up Morgan just before the season began, but didn't really start playing him right away, leaving us with Gomez at the top of the order for far too long. We had Loe as the "8th inning guy" until K-Rod was acquired. McGehee had a terrible year, but played everyday until the last week of the season. Yuni Weeks lost a lot of time at the end of the year, and probably wasn't 100% when he returned. There will always be injuries, and players will always do better or worse than expected, but it's not like we walked unscathed last season. If Braun is suspended, but we don't get Greinke/Hart type injuries, we're probably a bit worse than we were going into last year. If Braun isn't suspended, then I think we have as good a chance of winning the division this year as we did going into last year.

"Protection" aside, the Brewers should have a good lineup next year. If Braun is suspended, we have Aoki & Morgan at the top of the order getting on base for Hart, Ramirez & Weeks, followed by Gamel, Lucroy and Gonzalez. When Braun is playing, we have all kinds of options, but I'd guess we'll move Hart or Weeks back to leadoff and go something like Weeks, Morgan/Aoki, Hart, Braun, Ramirez or Hart, Morgan/Aoki, Bruan, Ramirez, Weeks. Followed by Gamel, Lucroy and Gonzalez. Moving Lucroy or Gonzalez to #2 when Gomez is in. With the moves Melvin's made this offseason we shouldn't have many holes in the lineup this year, so unless Roenicke gets really crazy (starting Izturis at 2B/3B on a regular basis or sitting Gamel regularly so he can play Morgan in RF and Hart at 1B) then I think our offense will be A-OK, and our defense should be vastly improved.

http://joshfrancis50.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/tig.jpg That looks like the image that probably went through the minds of most GM's when Boras said Fielder wanted a 10-year deal :-)

They added a lot more than 1 Win with Prince Fielder in that lineup. I don't care what WAR says, or any other advanced Metric, that's a good team. WAR is meant to compare players and measure their performances, I don't know a whole lot of people who literally take WAR and translate it literally into actual wins and losses. Prince and Cabrera in the middle of that order is devastating, and they already had a great lineup, and they're still trying to acquire Garza for Turner+ whomever. Verlander/Fister/Garza/Porcello and that lineup is as close to a lock to win a division as any team you're going to see going into next year IMO. Well I think the point was VMart is a pretty good hitter too. Same value for defense and baserunning (none). If you look at it as a trade of VMart for Prince they gain a little bit, but not that much. Prince is on a 9 year deal though, not a 1 year replacement plan for VMart, so I suppose it doesn't make sense to look at it in those terms. If the Tigers decided "VMart is hurt, must Prince Fielder for 9 years" they are seriously screwed up. If they're seriously going to play Cabrera at 3B, then offensively it's really Prince vs the .548 OPS Brandon Inge put up last season for the Tigers, minus the difference between Victor Martinez and whomever they fill in at DH. Of course, they'll essentially have two DH's they are playing in the field at 1B & 3B, while someone like Delmon Young, who can actually play the field will man DH. They'll have a good offense and good pitching, and are certainly the favorites to win the AL Central. If Cabrera can man 3B, then they won't have a problem when Martinez returns. If he can't and he & Fielder split time at 1B/DH, then they'll probably have to look at trading someone prior to the 2013 season.

I'd rather have had Prince's .929 OPS. Of course, so would everyone, but he just signed for $214MM, so that is not and never was an option. AOKI!!!! I have nothing to say about him. Just wanted to mention his name so it appears in his thread. Thank you for that. While the Tigers got a great hitter, they overpaid as is normally the case in free agency. We just picked up Japan's best hitter for something like $1.5MM/year on two years with a team option. It's rare that you can get value in free agency, which I think we did, but talk about an under-the-radar signing... I've seen more national hype for an A-baller getting cut than I've seen for the Brewers signing Aoki. If Braun is suspended, we picked up a Gold Glove-caliber defender who should be decent at getting on base to fill in for 50 games. If Braun is not suspended, we will have five good OF's on the roster, or we could look to trade Morgan and get something of value with Aoki taking over as platoon partner in CF. You never know how things will turn out, but I think this is going to be a good signing.

From Fangraphs: UZR/150 for Fielder @ 1B: 2008 -9.0, 2009 +1.8, 2010 -7.8, 2011 -5.2 UZR/150 for Cabrera @ 1B: 2008 -4.1, 2009 +3.4, 2010 -6.1, 2011 -4.1 TZL for Fielder: 2008 -12.1, 2009 -12.8, 2010 -13 TZL for Cabrera: 2008 +3.3, 2009 -4.4, 2010 -7 Aggregate Defensive Ratings Fielder: 2008 -10, 2009 -4, 2010 -11 Cabrera: 2008 -2, 2009 -1, 2010 -6 Cabrera started playing 1B in 2008, so that's why I only went back to 2008. They're both pretty bad defensively, and if I were a Tiger fan, I'd sure want one of them to man the DH spot in 2012.