monty57

If Braun is suspended, I'd like to see Gindl get regular playing time in LF until Braun returns. He is the logical choice to take over if Hart is traded mid-season or next off-season, so we might as well give him the first crack at LF if needed. The Brewers are much higher on Schafer, so he will probably be the guy they use. I prefer Gindl because he's a corner OF and we don't need three CF on the team. Melvin will probably sign a pseudo-retired vet for around $800k to man the 5th OF/backup 1B spot. When Braun's back, either the aging vet is released, or Gindl goes back to AAA. I think Green should start out in AAA playing everyday. Ramirez and/or Weeks are likely to be out at some point in the season, and Green would be a great call-up. Plus, he could be the callup for interleague games, playing 3B with Ramirez is DH. I think it's more likely that Green will start out on the MLB bench, as starting him in AAA would mean we'd need to find two FA utility guys, as we need to sign someone who can play SS. The only option in the system is Maysonet, and I don't think he belongs on the MLB roster. So, I don't think we have too many more moves to make. Sign a backup SS and sign the Melvin-special veteran 5th OF/backup 1B. Of course, there's still the possibility that K-Rod is traded, which could lead to a flurry of moves.

I think it would be safe assume the buyout and consider it $36M guaranteed money over 3 years. In other words, what are the chances the Brewers are going to pay ARam at least $16M in 2015 (assuming minimum logical, since no details). My first thought when I saw what type of steep escalation on salary was what kind of no-trade protection is built in. Could be the Brewers are out of it in 2013 and someone needs a corner infielder..... I believe $6MM of the third year is deferred from 2012 - in other words, think of the contract as $12M, $10M, $10M, $4M buyout but for the sake of getting the deal done, he moved $6M to the third year, hence $16M. Therefore, I wouldn't think the 4th (option) year would be for a $16M salary. I would guess that we won't exercise the option, but if we did, it would probably be for $10M or so. What is worth discussion is that we now have four players (Braun, Weeks, Yo, Ramirez) making a combined $48.25M in 2014. Plus, barring extensions Lucroy, Axford and I believe Gamel will hit arby that year and Morgan and Narveson will be in their final year of arby. We could probably still fit a Greinke extension in there, but things would start to get tight. Less tight than if we had signed Fielder, but still tight.

The thought that one "side" decided to strategically make this public doesn't make much sense. Neither Braun nor the MLB nor the testing group want this made public until all of the appeals are heard. If it came from "Braun's group," it would have probably been someone outside his "circle of advisors" with whom Braun discussed this. If this is the case, Braun is probably kicking himself for trusting this person, but there's really no legal recourse... in essense, if Braun was speaking about this with anyone other than his representatives, MLB reps or the testing facility, then he is technically the one who leaked the information. Anyone he would have told would not be bound by any confidentiality agreements. If it came from the MLB or the testing group, it wouldn't have been a group decision to leak it to the press. Rather, it would have been someone acting on their own volition, whether for monetary gain or out of misguided moral principle. If a person with confidential information in one of these camps leaked this information, there would be potential criminal charges against the individual, and civil charges against the individual and the group (MLB or the testing company). Leaking confidential medical records isn't a small thing. We're talking about potential millions of dollars in lost future revenues because of this. If he is innocent, this leak has royally screwed Braun. Now that it's out there, I hope that Braun can prove his innocence. If I had to bet, I'd bet he'll be suspended, but I'll wait until he's suspended before casting any stones in his direction.

I was fine with Gamel / Green, but I realize that there is a lot of risk relying on two rookies. Ramirez is a much safer bet to put up good numbers to help replace Fielder's bat. I'd guess Gamel or Green will get a lot of PT in LF if Braun is suspended, with Morgan/Gomez as late inning defensive replacement. That will allow us to see how the rookies look, and the better performing of the two can get the majority of reps once Braun is back. I actually liked Ramirez even when he was a Cub (at least as much as I could like a Cub). This is mostly due to the fact that I live in Illinois and all the Cubs fans I talk to hated the guy because "he only hit when it didn't matter" based on their beloved Derrick Lee getting hurt and Ramirez having a down couple of weeks after the injury. I guess I always thought he was a lot better than Cub fans gave him credit for. That said, he does have an erratic arm, and was saved from a lot of errors by having Lee at 1B. With Ramirez at 3B, I hope Gamel is a lot better than Fielder at catching bad throws because he'll see a lot of them.

Thanks for the article Mass Haas, and thanks to all the posters who have supplied some really good working knowledge of how this all works. This is pretty interesting and I never would've known a lot of this stuff if I had just listened to the media (which seems to be pretty common thread no matter what they're reporting). In regards to Mass' linked article, on one hand, it proves there has been at least one successful defense. The "13-0 record" doesn't seem in mean no failed test has ever been overturned. Rather, it seems to mean that normally baseball does a good job of keeping things under wraps until they are absolutely sure the player is guilty, and anything they overturn never gets out. That's good, as I wish this Braun leak had never happened. On the other, having a friend and former teammate with very similar circumstances may not look good for Braun's claim of innocence. It would be easy to see how one would (rightly or wrongly) come to the conclusion that they have been using since college and Katin found a loophole which Braun is going to try.

IS there aby one on this board with knowledge of how a result could be so high. I would assume even if he was using that his test would not be that high. What ralistic explanations are there? I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but something getting into the sample after it left Braun's body would be a realistic explanation. That's where my mind's leading when I hear "chain of custody" questions. Far fetched as that seems, the other explanations would have Braun putting on a cape and leaping tall buildings with a single bound.

Not sure how much the re-test means anything, as the timing of it could have an impact. However the other pieces definitely raise some questions. I did think that I saw somewhere that the league was having the sample tested again. Though ca't remember in all I've read today where I saw it. Who knows if any of it means anything, but taking a test immediately after hearing of a failing result and having that test come back clean is relevant (at least it would be in a court of law, which this isn't). I don't know how long the test results took, or how long any illegal substance would show on a test, but the story said he immediately asked for another test, so it's not like he stopped using or changed his masking agent after he heard of the failed result. I do agree that the term "chain of custody" coming up is a bigger issue, as is a result never before seen. Without these, the clean re-test would likely be disregarded. With these, the clean re-test is certainly something in Braun's favor.

Bringing up the term "chain of custody" seems like an important point. That may mean that at some point in time the sample is unaccounted for. If that is the case, then I can't see how they would be able to use that sample, as someone could have tampered with it. "Chain of custody" issues mixed with a result never seen before mixed with a clean re-test hints at foul-play.

Actually, I don't think there's an issue here for MLB, the 50 game deal will be implemented or MLB will come out with a damn good explanation why Braun was able to be the first player to successfully overturn this. I don't know that he would be the first. There has never been anyone who has overturned a ruling once MLB declared the suspension, but they haven't done that. The "Give Braun the benefit of the doubt" article on milwaukeebrewers.com makes it sound like others have successfully overturned initial positives. The difference is that someone with confidential information leaked this to the press before a MLB had made a decision. Therefore, we hear about this, when any other "mistake" has not been made public. I don't know all the processes involved, or all of the facts of the case, and will therefore reserve judgement. There seems to be some hope that he will be successful in his appeal. Whether he's guilty or not, it's unfortunate that some peon in a med lab or on MLB payroll decided to leak confidential medical information to the press. That person's actions are immoral and probably illegal. If Braun is indeed innocent, his life will have been irreparably harmed for no reason. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. There are some things you can't rush, but I would imagine all parties involved will want to get resolution to this ASAP.

McGehee for Morales is a no-brainer for the Brewers. Morales probably makes less money and is the better player. K-Rod for Morales would be good for the Brewers just to get some salary relief/flexibility. I like Gamel & Green, and am fine if they're the starters, but if we're able to add a talented player for someone we don't really want anyway, you do that deal in a heartbeat.

The Brewers mentioned earlier in the offseason that they were going to look into extensions for Greinke, Marcum and Axford. They were probably waiting for the market for pitchers to be set. That's happening, and the Winter Meetings are over, so they'll probably sit down to discuss the extensions before too long.

That was a good, informative article by Rosenthal. I would guess that K-Rod would have a lot of trade value at 1 year, $9-10MM.

I'd love to see an upgrade at 3b too and all the sudden I think we are sitting pretty. I know he's not MLB proven, and someone like Ramirez would be much more of a sure bet, but I'm not overly worried if we have Gamel at 1B and Green at 2B. I mentioned Weeks' wrist injuries in an earlier post, and I remember when a lot of Brewers fans wanted to see Weeks shipped out and replaced with just about anyone. Green had the same injury as Weeks. He was a talented young prospect, had the injury, people gave up on him, and once he was finally healthy, he once again is hitting well. Just like with Weeks, I don't think Green's season last year was a fluke - he was finally over his wrist injury. My bigger worry is that McGehee or another vet will be on the roster as a backup and Roenicke will start him everyday over Green at 3B or over Gamel at 1B.

Weeks had wrist injuries which hurt his numbers. If we could find a surgical procedure that could fix plate discipline, Gomez could have a Weeks-like "resurgance."

Thanks for the Cot's info Logan. I would certainly like this a lot more if we can get him for $8-9MM or so. I don't know how likely that is, but it's good to know that it's a possibility.

Are you sure about this? I've seen written and heard on MLBtv that the 80% rule does apply. I don't trust everything I see or hear, but I've seen it in enough places that I think it's true.

Furcal has simply been hurt too much in recent seasons for me and it sounds like he is demanding a two-year deal. Hopefully we'll get a long-term SS at some point, but with the available options, I'm glad we got Gonzalez on a one-year deal. We're going to rely on pitching more next year, and a good defense will help us there.

Of Yuni, Gonzalez and Furcal, I'd certainly like Furcal, but my guess is now that Pujols is gone, St. Louis will focus there attention on signing Furcal and outbid any and all suitors for him. I'm pretty much resigned to the belief that Yuni will be back, and am holding out hope that we'll get Gonzalez instead. We're going to be a pitching-centric team next year, and that doesn't work with a bunch of horrible defenders.

I hope that's the case. The alternative is that we sign either Yuni or Gonzalez for around $2-3MM and maybe a veteran middle releiver for <$2MM and a couple league minimum reclamation projects for the bench.

All they have to do is say that the money they're getting in arbitration was quite a bit more than any closer received, and a reasonable GM should be able to understand why a player would take a 1 year $14MM contract over a 3 year / $27MM contract, even if it means pitching in the 8th rather than the 9th. What I meant by "disproving your own point" is that you agreed that K-Rod is one of the most successful closers in history and will only be 30 next offseason (still in his prime), so how would a reasonable GM suddenly feel that he can no longer work the 9th inning just because he opted to take a gaudy arbitration contract over a lower free agent closer contract when the market for closers is down this offseason due to an oversupply of free agent closers?

Well Boras obviously couldn't make this argument to the half dozen or more teams that actaully needed a closer so why should he be successful at arbitration. Arbitration is different than an open negotiation. First, you're dealing with a panel of neutral judges, not a GM with a budget. Second, there are rules, one of which is that the minimum he can make should be $10.8MM (unless Baldkin is right in his prior post, but all I've heard is the $13.5MM number). Another is that arby is binding. Finally, they are obligated since they offered arby and he accepted. If it went to arby, the Brewers would make an offer and Boras/K-Rod would make an offer and the judges pick one. Since the Brewers and Boras know this, they will probably find common ground on a contract somewhere north of $10.8MM. It's not like the Brewers can say "Heath Bell is making $9MM, so that's what we'll sign you for." If they tried offering $9MM in arby, Boras would automatically win. K-Rod is only 29 and one of the more successful closers in recent history, teams should have been throwing money at him...That way he can prove he can still close effectively and would be more likely to have next year's Angels or Marlins give him another long term deal. You kind of disproved your own point. K-Rod is the all-time season saves leader. I don't think GM's will assume he's "forgotten how to save" due to the situation he was put in over the end of this season and this offseason. The market was soft for closers this offseason, so he took the option with by far the biggest payout. GM's will understand that. Boras is probably letting K-Rod take a few million more this year at the expense of many more millions over his next contract. That's very possible. Boras is known for thinking of his own wallet over that of his clients.

Long-term, the Angels probably did the Cardinals a huge favor, but short term it sure helps the Brewers' chances to win the division. I wonder if this is enough reason for Attanasio to up the payroll if he & Melvin really believe Aramis Ramirez would really help us.

Unfortunately, he had the same problems with the Mets and Twins hitting coaches, which is why this former "can't miss" prospect is manning the small half of a platoon for the Brewers.

Why are people saying K-Rod will get $13-14 million via arby? I thought that, at this point of their career, the money is based upon production, etc. And if you look at comparables, Bell is getting $9 million, Papelbon is getting $12.5 million. It seems to me K-Rod would get a salary closer to Bell's figure - maybe $10 million. However, it seems like everyone believes he's going to get a raise. I didn't think it was this simple. Any help on this one? K-Rod made $13.5MM this year, and is now guaranteed at least 80% of that ($10.8MM) if the case goes to arbitration. Therefore, there isn't a reason Boras/K-Rod would accept anything less than a 1 year / $10.8MM deal. Of course, Boras will argue that he should get more than the minimum due, and most players actually get a pay raise in this situation, so the likely salary will be between $10.8MM and $14MM. But what about 3) Sign him to a longer term deal (3/$27M) and trade him to a team that needs a closer. That is also a possibility, but first K-Rod/Boras would have to agree to it (he'll potentially make half that money in one year, and he could be stuck as setup man for three years if not traded) and secondly the Brewers would be assuming risk. They may not be able to trade him, or he may get injured and the Brewers would be on the hook for $27MM. I would hope that if they did this, they would have a trade partner set up prior to signing the deal. If so, that may be a good plan, but it begs the question "If someone wanted him for 3 years/$27MM, why didn't they just offer it to him prior to him accepting arby?" I doubt he is on our roster come opening day. Some team will need a closer come Spring Training. It seems to me that there is a free spending team with a new ugly logo that may have a need at closer. I know it is a long-shot, but what if we sent KRod and $ to Marlins for Anibal Sanchez, Bonafacio or Infante? Heath Bell might be a little upset by this. Why should he get "Closers money" if he AGREED to NOT be a closer? Boras will argue that he is the all-time single season saves leader and is in the prime of his career. Plus, as stated above he's guaranteed a minimum of $10.8MM in arby. endaround wrote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pretty sure you can't cut free agent eligible players. Their entire salary is guaranteed. Can anyone confirm this. This would seem to make some sense in that I have not heard the possibly of being able to drop K-Rod anywhere else but on this board. The announcers on MLBtv discussed this option. If they were correct, the Brewers could cut him early in ST and only pay 1/6 of his arby contract. I think it comes down to this: If you thought the Brewers were going to land a big-money SS, or if you thought Aramis Ramirez was going to be a good solution, then you're probably pretty upset by this. If you wanted Gamel & Green to get a shot or if you expected us to end up with Yuni/Gonzalez at SS, then you're probably not as upset about this. It basically hampers our ability to spend money on a big contract this offseason, which may or may not be a good thing long-term.