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Everything posted by monty57
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How would a lifetime ban be different than him blowing out his shoulder except that he would have mentally trashed his career instead of physically? One is avoidable by placing him on the 40-man, one isn't He's done this to himself, he's been getting all the support than Wilhelmsen didn't... Maybe they learned a lesson, that it's better to support the person rather than toss them aside. I remain very high on his potential as pitcher, but I'm willing to separate myself from that idea judge this situation more on my personal value system. Unfortunately in sports (and many "big money ventures") personal values take a backseat to money, wins, etc. Not saying it's right, but it's the way things often work. Why is he more at risk during July and August than he was in June, May, and April? Maybe they waited until he was done with rehab and the suspension was over. Maybe they wanted to make sure he was clean. Maybe they wanted to make sure he was still mentally and physically able to pitch. Or, you may be right, and they know he's using and want to hide it. I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time teams have purposefully hidden drug use (see Steroids Era). Politics aside, we all have workplace rules we don't agree with, how much rope do we get to hang ourselves? You ever work for a commission? Often, the high commission earners get more "rope" than the low earners. In other professions, tenured employees can almost get away with murder while non-tenured employees get treated like cattle. I'd guess a former #1 pick with a 100-MPH fastball gets more rope than some of his compatriots. Again, this doesn't make it right, but it happens all the time. I'd be interested in the ethical rule that was violated. If someone is performing an illegal act, and you do something to hide that crime, you are performing an illegal act (aid & abet). It would be pure speculation to state that this is what happened, but if it was, then it was not only an "ethical rule" that was violated, but it would be a criminal act.
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Brewers will likely shun big 2010 deals
monty57 replied to bamberger's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I would be pretty shocked if Hart isn't traded soon, and Prince traded sometime before next season. As others have said, we could be better with what we receive in trade + the replacements for Hart/Fielder than we are with what we currently have + Hart & Fielder. Our pitching would be vastly improved simply by finding a "#2/3" to fit between Yo and Wolf/Parra. Any of the rumored Minor/W. Davis/Garza combo would fit that. If that happens and Parra continues to improve and Wolf gets back closer to his career numbers, we could actually have an average-to-above-average rotation (I know, a lot of "ifs"). We've got an offense that has scored the fourth most runs in the National League, and that's without Prince hitting that much better than an average MLB 1B (although he's come on strong lately). It shouldn't be too difficult to replace him with an .800+ OPS 1B, so even though he will be impossible to replace, our offense should still be above average. As for Hart, he is far too difficult to predict. If he is suddenly a .900 OPS player, then of course we'd suffer without him. If he's the .750 OPS RF he has been the past two years, then he is very easily replaceable. We're probably better off trading him while he's hot and letting someone else worry about that. The dropoff from this year's Hart to whoever replaces him should be at least somewhat made up for by Braun hitting closer to normal, Cain replacing Gomez and Escobar and Lucroy having a season under their belts. The bottom line for me is that if we can still have an above-average (though not quite as good) offense and an average-to-above-average rotation (up from really bad) to go along with what looks like a fairly solid bullpen and what would have to be improved defense (Hart and Fielder are below average), and we could have a better team next year than we have this year. Plus, we would move from a team on the verge of losing a good portion of their talent at the end of the season to a team where most of the "core talent" is under control for multiple seasons. -
If the Brewers trade Hart and they can only get some high upside A ball pitchers then it would depend on what the Brewers get for Prince in the off season. I think this is key. It looks to me like Hart & Fielder will both be traded before next season. I'd guess one of the trades will bring back someone who will be in the rotation to start next year, and the other will bring back high-upside arms in the lower minors. The thought that Hart could bring back the major league ready pitcher excites me, because I never thought that would be reality, and I'd be really excited to see what we could get in a Prince trade if we weren't pigeon-holed into needing to find a major-league ready starter. We have to temper our expectation for Hart due how horrid he's been the past two seasons. However, Atlanta's trade of Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez does show that teams looking for the playoffs will seemingly forego sanity for short-term results. I'd love to get some of the names being thrown around in exchange for Hart. If it's Minor/Garza/W. Davis, then we've got a rotation spot locked up for the next few seasons. If we get a young "top of the rotation stuff" pitcher and a solid bat who won't be ready for a few years, I'm still happy to get that kind of talent into the system. Then we'd just need to work into the trade that the pitcher gets to continue working in Tampa's minor league system so that he'll be developed properly :-)
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Atlanta trades Yunel Escobar to Toronto for Alex Gonzalez
monty57 replied to wibadgers23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't know anything about the minor leaguers, but unless someone's injured, this trade makes little sense. Both SS are probably equally likely to perform well for the remainder of the season. Gonzalez is just older and more expensive than Escobar. Reyes certainly hasn't been anything special in his 3+ years with Atlanta. Looks like Atlanta is in "win now" mode and is giving up on Escobar due to a poor first half. They're trading for someone who's career numbers (.696 career OPS) look something like Escobar's poor first half numbers, but who happens to be having his career best (.793) OPS this season. I'd say the Jays got the better MLB SS, Reyes is a project and it all depends on the prospects. Tim Collins looks like a decent minor league reliever, and I couldn't find Pastronicky on milb.com. I don't know if the Braves will put a 20-year-old out of AA onto their MLB roster in a playoff hunt, so it doesn't look to me like they really did much to improve their playoff chances this season. Assuming Gonzalez and Escobar "revert to norm" in the second half, I'd guess Escobar would be better for the rest of the season. I'm no expert, but on initial viewing, I'd say the Jays win this one. -
The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 1)
monty57 replied to Bombers's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As for the supply/demand debate over Hart vs. Fielder, I kind of look at it this way: Everyone would like a Ferrari, but the true demand for Ferrari's is pretty low due to the price tag. Most people who want a sports car would settle for a Ford Mustang, so a lot more Ford Mustangs are sold every year than Ferrari's. That doesn't mean these people will pay more for the Mustang than the Ferrari, or that they wouldn't trade their Mustang for the Ferrari in a heartbeat. It's just that they can't afford the Ferrari, and the Ford Mustang is an upgrade over the Ford Pinto they've been driving for years. Hart is your Mustang. Based on the season he's having, he is an "affordable" upgrade for a lot of teams, who are currently trotting out league-average players in LF or RF. Because we're mid-season, the supply is low, so it's a good time to "sell" him. Prince is your Ferrari. There are not many players in baseball who are near his level, and those who are at his level are signing long-term deals worth well over $100MM. We can downplay him all we like, but what he's done so far in his career is amazing. Like the Ferrari, people put posters of him on their wall while driving a more affordable car/player. However, there are people out there who can afford Ferrari's, and are willing to pay for them. Maybe they just do it to have a nicer car than their neighbor (Yankees/Red Sox), or maybe they truly think that he is the one piece that will shoot them into the playoffs. When teams say they'd rather have Hart than Fielder, what they're really saying is "for the price tag, I'd rather have Hart than Fielder." Think about it, if both players would sign exactly the same contract, and you could only sign one of them, which one would you sign? I think it's pretty obvious that Fielder is worth a lot more than Hart, it will just take the right shopper coming up and paying for him. -
That's entirely possible, Ennder. I wouldn't believe it if it weren't for all the rumors floating around. They are just that...rumors. However, you'd think some of them would be based on something. Maybe it's simply a reporter hearing "Team X is interested in Hart," and then looking through their roster to see who would make sense. Since this is about the only positive thing going on with the Brewers at this time, I'll hold out hope that Hart will bring us back someone decent :-)
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Gallardo would boycott 2011 ASG if elected to team
monty57 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I didn't use "Scare quotes," I simply use quotes when I am quoting something someone else said. Someone used the word "sacrifice," so I used the quotes. Not belittling anyone. However, people are asked to sacrifice all the time, in all aspects of life. To stay non-political, I'll use an easy one... if your boss asks you to work the weekend, you are being asked to sacrifice. You may agree willingly to do it, but you are being asked to sacrifice your time for something which may or may not benefit you directly. The second part isn't a "questionable political agenda," it is a fact and is the reason the law in question was enacted. Gangs in Arizona (predominantly, but not uniquely composed of illegal immigrants) are kidnapping, raping and murdering Arizona citizens of all races, creeds and colors. I don't know if this law is Constitutional or will do anything to fix the problem, but a fact is a fact, and this particular fact is the reason the law was enacted. My point was, why can (or should) one side take action against (or for) something, while the other side would be crucified for acting for their belief? Would those that cheer (or jeer) an athlete for taking a stand cheer (or jeer) someone that chose to take the other side? Forget for a second this particular case, and imagine if an athlete you respected voiced an opinion to which you were strongly opposed... how would you react? Also, it could get really ugly really quickly if baseball players who support the law decide to speak up. One reason I don't like Yo publicly making this statement is the effect it could have on the clubhouse. What if some members of the team stand on the other side of the issue? Will this cause strife? I doubt Yo is going to cause trouble, but why even bring it up? Another reason I don't like it is that many fans (rightly or wrongly) support the law. This could have a negative impact on their perception of Yo and the Brewers. Why do something that will upset the fan base? I'm not trying to take a stand in support or opposition to Arizona's law. I'm just saying there could be some major ramifications to this. -
I understand the thoughts of selling high on Corey Hart and that RFs are generally a dime a dozen but what is everyone's plan if he is dealt coupled with the inevitable Prince deal? A valid concern, and one reason I'm so happy to see that other teams appear willing to give up near-MLB-ready SP for Hart. That allows us to trade Fielder for best value, which may well be a solid, young RF and 1-2 high-upside AA arms. Or, we could sign one of Dunn, Konerko, Berkman, D. Lee to a 1-2 year deal this offseason to fill 1B. Barring injury, I would have to think that Cain will be on the MLB roster next season. Whether we will go Braun/Cain/RF or Bruan/Gomez/Cain would be the question, and I think we need to give Gomez a lot more PT this season to see if he could be an option for CF next season, or at least to raise his trade value. If Hart brings back someone for the rotation next season, Prince brings in a young RF, and we either sign a 1B or let McGehee/Gamel play there, we should have a decent offense to go along with vastly improved pitching, and probably better defense as Hart and Fielder are below average defenders. Lucroy and Escobar having a year's experience under their belts should help them both offensively and defensively as well. As I said, you do have a valid point in that we can't focus solely on trading away all our offense in search of pitching, so if one of the rumored Hart-for-pitching deals goes through, I'd guess part of the "Prince package" will include an offensive player coming back.
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Gallardo would boycott 2011 ASG if elected to team
monty57 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So, should non-Latino players refuse to play in Arizona unless the law is upheld, as the Tucson/Phoenix areas have become 2nd in the world (behind Boguta, Columbia) in kidnapping? If athletes should be asked to "sacrifice," shouldn't everyone say "I'm worried for my life and that of my family, and therefore will not step foot in Arizona unless this law is upheld and enforced?" I'm with most on this board... Athletes and athletics should not be used as a political platform. It should be our refuge from all the politics affecting every other aspect of our lives. -
The Brewers are talking about going to a six-man rotation after the All Star break, so there is definitely no need to trade for a pitcher who would be on the MLB team this year. However, if we could trade for a Matt Garza/Wade Davis type pitcher, I'd think the Brewers would find a way to get him into the rotation. Trading Bush, who is a FA after the season, makes sense regardless of whether or not we bring someone in. I've been a proponent for keeping Narveson in the rotation, but he could go to the pen if we bring in a good arm. Hopefully, Davis can put together a couple good starts so some team feels he's worth taking a flier on in trade. If he keeps going 3-4 innings giving up a bunch of runs, I could see him getting DFA'd if we still have excess pitchers. Regardless, we could find room for a good arm if we land one. I think the biggest reason we'd get a minor leaguer rather than a major leaguer is that most MLB teams in the playoff hunt would not want to give up one of their starting pitchers. Tampa seems to be one of the few teams who may be willing to give up a MLB arm at this point, due to the presence of Hellickson. To those arguing that trading for AA arm(s) would be punting on next season, I think someone pitching well in AA this year could very easily be on the MLB roster next season. Or, since we already have a nearly full MLB rotation for next year, that player could start the year at AAA, giving us much needed MLB-ready depth and saving some service time, perhaps buying us another service year. I'd guess, based on the rumors flying around, that Hart will be traded for someone who will be in the majors soon (if not this season, then to start next season). That will allow us to get the absolute best value for Prince, whether that is this year or this offseason. Valid arguements can be made as to whether we'd get more by trading him this season or in the offseason, but I doubt there's any way he's not traded, as his value would drop significantly if we wait until next season's deadline. If the best value for Prince is a solid MLB-ready RF and a high-upside AA arm, then that would be fine. Start next year with Yo, Parra, {Minor/Davis-type player received for Hart}, Wolf, Narveson/Rivas/FA and have the pitcher acquired for Fielder start in AAA to fill in when someone's injured or under-performs. We'd also have a solid young RF to offset the loss in offense from trading away Fielder and Hart. We've got prospects who can also help and we'll have plenty of money to fill in any other holes through FA or picking up salary in trade. We'd be a fairly young team with a decent amount of talent that we would control for a number of years. Not tearing up the team, but making a couple moves that will help us field a competitive into the foreseeable future.
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I really believe Hart would love to stay in Milwaukee. I know athletes say things like that all the time, but for some reason I believe Hart when he's said he'd like to stay here. He's almost seemed to be asking for an extension in some of his interviews. That said, I hope he's traded while his value is up and the Brewers hopes for the playoffs are down. All players have risks, but to me Corey's lows are too low. Nothing personal, as he seems like a good guy, and I've briefly met his family and they're nice people. The Brewers just have to make the decision that will bring the most value to the franchise, and if they can get a good pitcher they will "control" for 5-6 years, I think they have to go that route.
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Gallardo would boycott 2011 ASG if elected to team
monty57 replied to PrinceEatMeat's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would guess that by next season, the AZ boycott probably won't be the centerpoint of the issue. There's a federal lawsuit against the AZ law. If the federal govt wins, the law will be struck down. If AZ wins, there are over 30 other states who are set to enact similar laws. I'd guess if it goes to the Supreme Court, they'd hear it pretty quickly, as it is such a hot issue and really would set a lot of precedance on state vs federal rights. -
If they had that many picks, they probably wouldn't have the money to sign them. Plus, even if they took college players, they would be several years out from being a decent team again. At least one of Hart & Prince have to be traded, and probably both. I agree with Paul that it appears Hart will be moved this season in a deal involving a young pitcher, and Prince will be moved this offseason. I still think a Weeks extension could happen this offseason, moving Lawrie to a new position. If he can't be signed, he's the type of talent you don't mind losing for comp picks (as opposed to Fielder, who is the type talent where the comp picks aren't nearly enough), and Lawrie should be ready to step in to fill 2B. If we can trade Hart for someone like Wade Davis or Minor who can step right into the rotation, we will have a full staff for next year, so we will have a lot of flexibility in dealing Fielder. For example, we could get a high quality MLB-ready starter if one is available, or we could target some high upside AA arms, a young MLB ready RF/1B, etc. From a trading perspective, Hart's hot 1st half has been a Godsend for the Brewers. We just need to strike while the iron is hot.
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You also have to throw in that even in the highly unlikely case the Cards and Reds both collapsed, the Brewers would still have to outplay the Cubs, who have as much chance of "getting hot" in the second half as the Brewers. Just another wrench in the works. I'd much rather be the optimist, but sometimes you have to be a realist. Since I'm an optimist by nature, my optimistic side says the Brewers have in their power the ability to make a few roster moves that could set them up fairly nicely for the future. Corey Hart's season has been unbelievably fortunate for the Brewers... instead of having to rely on trading Fielder for pitching we'll need, now it appears Hart may be able to be traded for someone along the lines of Wade Davis or Minor. That's huge, as it would open the door for us to have some flexibility in looking at Fielder trades. We are also able to use this season to see what we have in some players who might not otherwise get a chance to sink or swim. I still think we can be competitive next season if we play our cards right. But it appears more and more certain that the worst move would be for the Brewers to sell off minor leaguers for extra wins this season, and the better move is to realize that we aren't going to the playoffs this year, so we should build for next year and beyond. I'm happy to see the Front Office appears to be headed in that direction.
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According to BA, he has the upside of a a #2 if he can get a consistent third pitch. Knowing the Brewers, they would probably try to get him to throw the change and maybe abandon the slider. Knowing the Brewers, they'd probably decide that with two plus pitches, he'd make a great setup man for Axford
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Just to be clear, Hart has done a whole lot more than just resurrect his trade value - he has had what I consider the best overall statistical year of any national league outfielder so far. I agree, which is why it's so good to see the rumored offers that are swirling about. What scares me is 2008, which is the last year he had a good first half. Although the .831 OPS he sported isn't near this year's level, the second half of 2008 saw Corey Hart sporting an abyssmal .659 OPS. That was followed up by a .753 OPS 2009. If there was any certainty to Hart, I'd be much more willing to ride him out through next year and take the Type A compensation. I just have this bad feeling that Corey Hart hasn't magically found all the answers, and therefore will have a prolonged period of bad baseball. Whether that's the second half of this season, or next year, I just believe it's going to happen. If someone's willing to give us a very good young pitcher who can fit into our rotation for the next 5-6 years, I'd pull the trigger. Let someone else ride the Hart train of really high "highs" and really low "lows."
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Right, but would you bet your house, even if the potential return were 140 houses? You win, you're set for life, you lose, you're broke for life. That would take a lot of guts, and I hope our GM doesn't play those odds. btw, Vegas doesn't put those odds because they can pay a lot less and people will still place bets. Why pay someone 140x their money when they'll be willing to put the same bet down on the possibility of getting 50x their money. It truly is a sucker bet when you put money down on 50:1, when the true odds (what you should be paid) are 140:1. But, that's Vegas. Every team should start the year with a 1 in 30 (3.33%) chance of winning the World Series. Of course, all teams aren't created equal, so some teams are going to be over that and some under. That's where the actuaries / oddsmakers come in (rluzinski could probably give you a very detailed write-up of how these numbers are derived). By the time half the season's over, the probability of overcoming bad starts gets pretty slim, which is when teams who are out of it should get smart and use someone else's desparation to help increase their odds of winning in the future. Ironically, being a buyer should be the more difficult decision, as in reality you're probably increasing your odds from something like 10% to 10.5%, while "selling" (done correctly) would probably decrease the Brewers' odds from something like 0.5% to 0.48%. But, most people would rather buy than sell. I guess that's why people flock to Vegas even though the odds are they will leave with less money than they came with. We're a nation of gamblers, so people who want to use that to their advantage can make a lot of money.
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Interestingly, the Mariners do think Montero can catch in an acceptable enough form, especially because they imagined his offense would outweigh anything he might give away defensively. Not much of a surprise that Jack Z would want someone with a good bat, regardless of how bad the defense is. We see that all over the Brewers MLB roster. There is a fine line between dishonorable and illegal... Yes, NY Yankee fans, it is extremely honorable to win by using a systematically-designed monetary advantage. Using this writer's line of reasoning, it's not illegal for the Yankees to outbid everyone else for all the top free agents, but how honorable is it? Wouldn't true honor come from beating someone when you are at a disadvantage, so in other words, are not the Yankees the least honorable team in professional sports? Yankees fans (and writers) are so into the belief that they are entitled to their advantages that they cannot see the paradox. I agree, Molitor Fan, it is great to see the Yankees get the short end of the stick every now and then. They'll probably still win the World Series due to Cashman's ability to use the Yankee money to his advantage, but at least in this small instance they get rebuffed.
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What were the Brewers' odd to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season? With the exceptions of the big market Yankee/Red Sox types, most teams start the year with crappy odds. That's why you wait until July to make decisions. Now you try to find someone who values wins this season more than they value "potential future wins" and make a deal. Other GMs are starting to get desperate and hopefully Melvin can use that to his advantage. Holding Prince and Hart to the offseason wouldn't be terrible, but it may reduce their trade value. Trading our future (minor leaguers) to add wins this year would be terrible, as we occasionally need to re-stock our minors, which we failed to do last season in a similar situation. What has trading off guys prior to FA done for the Cleveland Indians? For Sabathia and Lee, the Indians received 8 players: Michael Brantley (.568 major league OPS), Matt LaPorta (.735 major league OPS), Zach Jackson (sold to Toronto), Rob Bryson (still in A ball), Jason Knapp (injured missed all of 2010, never pitched above low A), Carlos Carrasco (0-4, 8.87 ERA in 5 ML starts), Jason Donald (.754 OPS as 25 year old rookie SS), and Lou Marson (.530 OPS). ...and what is their opportunity cost? They were going to lose Sabathia anyway (they'd have gotten the same supplemental and 2nd rounder we got), so they'd be sitting with Cliff Lee pitching for a losing team this year. I think you know that basing this trade off of what the young players are doing right now is really short-changing their value. They're minor leaguers and rookies right now, and will likely get better. I don't think LaPorta's a bust because he's hitting .735 OPS in his first MLB season. Sure, they "punted" this season, but they were at 4th-and-30 on their own 1-yard-line. In other words, they'd be bad this year if they made the trades or not. Now, at least they have some players who are near MLB-ready who will help them much sooner than the draft picks would have. They made a run when they had the high-caliber pitching, and now they're on a downswing, but will probably be back in a couple seasons. That happens to small/mid market teams. Now, if they had the Yankee's money, they could have simply extended Sabathia and Lee and kept on winning, but we both know that wasn't an option. We could get into how unfair the monetary situation is in baseball, but until that changes, teams have to do what's best for their franchise, which occasionally means trading away players you'd rather extend.
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Just part of the implications of making a trade that often gets overlooked. Teams like San Fran will be hard pressed to trade a pitcher on their MLB roster unless they have a ready-made replacement sitting in AAA (such as Tampa with Hellickson). On the Brewers' side, we already have too many starting pitchers on our MLB team. Going into next year, we will still have Yo, Wolf, Parra and Narveson, and have an option on Davis (which probably won't be exercised). If we traded for Hart for Sanchez straight up, San Fran would only have four viable major league starters, and the Brewers would have to go to a seven-man rotation... this just doesn't make sense. That's why I've long argued that if we are going to make a mid-season trade of a player like Hart or Fielder, it makes more sense we should target minor leaguers rather than "proven" major leaguers. We'll get them longer, and the added risk of not being "proven" may allow us to get someone with some more "upside potential." As we see the desparation increase, there will be GM's who will begin to value wins this season much more than possible wins in future seasons. That's when "that kid pitching well down in AA" becomes less important than "that guy on the Brewers who's leading the league in HRs." It's one thing to show on paper how much more valueable a AA pitcher is than Prince Fielder, but it's another thing when you have the World Series in your sights, and that extra win or two Prince could bring you this season could make all the difference. It's promising to see a couple of rumors floating around. It shows Melvin's working hard, and hopefully the right deal(s) will come around (for Hart and / or Fielder) and Melvin will pull the trigger. Heck, one deal may lead to the other. Atlanta may land Hart, and that would prompt a competitor to realize they need to do something to keep up, so they make a big offer for Fielder. It will be interesting to see how things play out. Again, it's one thing to tell Buster Olney that you don't like dealing with Boras, and another to tell your team owner and fans that you had a chance to land one of the best hitters in baseball, but you passed on it, and that's the reason you missed the playoffs. Those moves cost GMs their jobs as much, if not more, than trading away a AA guy who, several years later becomes a star.
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So best case, the odds are about 140 to 1 according to these sites. I'd make that bet. I'm not saying they have a very good chance at all, but they have to be better than that (probably closer to 50 to 1 or something). I've never been able to figure out how these sites are able to quantify things like this.They "quantify things like this" with the same statistics that oddsmakers use in Vegas. You say you'd make that bet, but it's one thing to be willing to throw $5 on that bet, and another to bet your house on it. What we do personnel-wise prior to next season will be very important to the success of our team for years to come. Since 1.5 years of Prince is greater than 0.5 years of Prince, it seems logical that we'd get more trading him either this season or this offseason as opposed to waiting until next year's trade deadline. Hart has been a very up-and-down player in his career, so we could very easily see his trade value fall to almost nothing at next season's trade deadline. We also have leverage right now, as we don't "have to" trade them, whereas if we are in a similar situation next year, teams will know they have us between a rock and a hard place. Melvin has to look at what's best for the franchise, not only this year, but into the future. Making bets with the odds stacked against him is not the best way to do this.
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Any trade made this year is looking at next year and beyond, when Bush will have left for free agency. In fact, we're talking about going with a six-man rotation after the All Star break, so whoever we'd pick up in trade might be in AAA when he comes to the Crew... at least until we are able to trade someone like Bush. Right now, we've got Yo ®, Wolf (L) and Parra (L) as probables for next year. Narveson will be on the roster, but could very well be in the bullpen. I agree they probably won't look to go into next season with four lefties, but I'd guess they'll aim for the best possible arm (regardless of left or right) in trade for Hart and/or Fielder. If they have a chance for a potential-top-of-the-rotation lefty, they have to take it. They could then look to find a righty in the offseason, or they could bring up someone like Rivas to fill the fifth spot in the rotation. I do like to see that the desparation in GMs is starting early this year. If we could land a strong AAA arm as part of a deal for Hart or Fielder, I'd be pretty happy.
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Probably some of that and some of the fact that if the Giants trade one of their current starting five, they don't have anyone in their system to replace him. If we added someone like Dave Bush, it'd probably make it more palatable to the Giants, but then we'd ask more in return. I just don't think Sanchez is the right target. Since we're not competing for anything this year, why trade for someone we'll only have for a short time, and who wouldn't be that significant an upgrade over what we currently have? I'd much rather we get someone like Minor who has some upside and who we'd control for more years.
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I know that was just a random pull, but two of those pitchers are on our staff (Gallardo, Parra), three were used in trades and have been MLB pitchers (de La Rosa, Eveland, Sarfate) and one is still in our system and finally looking like he'll help us after suffering through injuries (Rogers). So, of the nine mentioned, five have had some degree of MLB success and one is likely to help the Brewers in some fashion in the not-too-distant future. Jorge de La Rosa is a bit of a wild card to throw in the mix, as Boston called him up early, used up all of his options long before he was MLB ready, and then traded him off, putting the Brewers in a tough situation with him. Since he's "figured it out," he's become a decent MLB starter. I get your point that we definitely don't have any guarantee that our young pitchers will blossom into a fully home-grown MLB rotation. I think we've had a share of bad luck in having so many of our young pitchers get injured, and I hope that trend doesn't continue. I do think many have written off a lot of our current crop of young arms far too early. For example, it seems many have already chalked Arnett up as a complete bust. Maybe past failures have soured us, or maybe I'm too optimistic on the current group, but I'd have to think that we will get a few MLB starters out of our current minor league system. That said, I'm still all for adding any additional pitching talent we can add. It would definitely be a good thing to have "too much" pitching, where we could even look to trade pitching for help elsewhere. But let's cross that bridge when we find it :-)

