monty57

To be clear, I wasn't talking abut September call-ups. I want these guys to be invited to Spring Training, and given every opportunity to earn a spot in the rotation. I kind of thought that was where you were going, FV, and I agree that at least Rivas and Rogers should be in the running for the rotation next year. The only certainties are Yo and Wolf, and Parra is a probable. If we get someone for Prince, we should need one spot filled. With our current makeup, I'd guess the last spot will either be Rivas, Rogers or a free agent signing. With Melvin's recent track record on FA signings, I'm leaning towards letting Rivas/Rogers take the spot. I would like to see them make an effort at signing Javier Vazquez for a 1-2 year deal, but that may be a pipe dream. Houston should have a lot of money, and Wade will probably give him an 8-year deal. A lot can change, but since I believe Rogers will be out of options, I'd like to see him get the first shot unless it really doesn't look like he can cut it as a starter. He has much more value as a starter than he would as a reliever, so let him start out as the #5, with Rivas, Jeffress, Heckathorn, etc waiting in the wings in AAA. We will have injuries and poor performance that will give these guys plenty of opportunity, so it will be nice to have some talent at AAA waiting to step in.

I should've been more clear. I meant that the return we get when we trade Prince will be important, as it is now our one big shot at getting someone to help in the starting rotation in 2011. I was on the fence about extending Fielder until Boras made his $200MM comment. That pretty much told me he was not going to sign an extension with the Brewers, so I knew we needed to trade him. I got excited in believing that Corey Hart would bring back someone like Wade Davis, so we could go out and get the best value possible for Fielder. With Hart now extended, it looks like we will have to trade Prince for a package including a pitcher who will be in our 2011 rotation. That could possibly mean we won't get as much talent/upside back in return for getting more certainty/MLB experience in the Fielder trade.

I agree on the cost savings to a point, but pitchers are different than hitters. Since studies have shown how pitchers are more likely to get injured if they don't stick to a fairly regimented innings pitched schedule, you don't see very many pitchers being rushed through systems and taking on big innings workloads if they haven't worked up to them. Young hitters may wear down and become less productive over a long MLB schedule, but pitchers are at risk of career-threatening injuries (at least according to studies). When teams pay a signing bonus of up to a few million dollars, they don't want to see that investment blow up on them. I'd guess that's weighed right along with service time. If there was a guarantee that players would not get hurt, you'd probably see more 20-year-old pitchers in the majors.

This season, Macha is also batting Braun cleanup (behind Fielder) against lefties, and third (ahead of Fielder) against righties. However, if I were a betting man, I'd say the fastball to the elbow had a lot to do with Braun's struggles.

So that's Yo, Wolf, Parra and two holes in the rotation. Why not give guys like Peralta, Jeffress, even Heckathorn a shot? For next year, in addition to the trio of Yo, Wolf and Parra, I'd expect Fielder to be traded in the offseason for a package including a "MLB ready" pitcher that will be in our rotation in 2011. That leaves one hole. I agree that Narveson has pretty much pitched his way into a LOOGY role, so I think the fifth spot should come from elsewhere. Rivas and Rogers battling for the spot is a logical step, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin hit the free agent market, going after someone on a 1-2 year deal, putting Rivas and Rogers in AAA as insurance for the MLB club(unless Rogers is out of options and has to be on the MLB roster). I would much rather see Jeffress back as a starter in AA/AAA next season rather than keeping him in the 'pen. If one of Rivas/Rogers starts the season as our #5 starter, with Jeffress and Rivas/Rogers in AAA, we will finally have some decent young pitchers ready to fill in for injuries or underperformance. No more stashing starting pitchers in the MLB bullpen and no more trotting out AAAA guys as sacrificial lambs whenever a MLB starter gets hurt.

Or, you could look at it this way: After the two cheap years in which he performed up to his contract, the Jeff Suppan deal was really just two-years / $24 mil. I agree with you on the Weeks and Fielder points. This deal with Hart does limit our ability to upgrade our future rotations, and makes a Prince deal very important.

There may be a reason the guys at BP aren't MLB GM's :-) $15.3 MM would make him the 9th highest paid OF in MLB history (8th if you take out Manny Ramirez getting the top two average annual salary contracts) Of the players in front of him, Ramirez is being shopped, as he's overpaid, Andruw Jones was benched while being paid $18.1MM/year, Vernon Wells is known as one of the worst signings around, I'd bet the Cubs aren't happy with Soriano's contract, Carlos Lee is weighing the Astros down. Overall, it doesn't look like a good idea to sign really good players to deals in the $15MM+ range. Corey Hart doesn't qualify as a really good player, so I don't know where BP is coming from. Actually, the deal he received (3 years / $26.5MM or $8,833,333/year) is the 15th highest contract in history for someone with 4+ years of service time (any position, not just OF), so it's not a steal of a deal. I sure hope he's worth it. All this courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Then no trade. I wouldn't eat a nickel of Fielder's salary. It was absolutely absurd for Houston to make the trades they have made the past few days. The ownership must be hard up for cash or something.I've tried to figure this out, and here's the best I came up with: Oswalt demanded a trade, and had a list of teams he'd accept a trade to, seriously hampering the Astros. That's a very important point that seems to have been forgotten. They found a deal where they got a decent pitcher in Happ and a highly rated 1B prospect in Wallace (after the subsequent Toronto deal which I'm sure was in place prior to the Phillies deal). Not a bad haul considering Oswalt demanded the trade. Now, Berkman had also said he wanted to be traded (after Oswalt's comments). He is not hitting very well for a 1B (.800-ish OPS) and there is basically no way they were going to pay his $15MM option for 2011, so he was going to walk away for nothing after the season, and the Astros would have probably had to pay a buyout. Since they got Wallace, Berkman was unnecessary in Houston, so get what you can for him. I can't imagine his value was too high, as with his contract and option buyout, he could have had a negative value. They probably picked up some salary simply to end up with a couple of prospects (even if they weren't very good), so it didn't look like they gave him to the Yankees for nothing. Lee also said he wanted to be traded, but his albatross contract isn't going anywhere (thank you Doug for not signing that deal). Now, the Astros lost Oswalt and Berkman (who was gone next year anyway), and gained Happ and Wallace. They still have Lee and Pence in the order, and should have money to get a little better this offseason, as they freed up something like $31MM in Oswalt and Berkman to go along with expiring contracts for Kaz Matsui, Pedro Feliz, Mohler, etc. I don't expect them to be a good team next year, but I do see where they were coming from in the trades. It's too bad for them that Oswalt put them between a rock and a hard place, but they seem to have at least got something in the deal... I guess it just depends on how you rate Happ and Wallace. I see them as a #3-ish starter with 3+ years of control and a Top 20 overall prospect who should be a centerpiece of their offense for the next six years.

Worked for me

Sage, I hope Escobar does escalate to become a decent leadoff hitter. However, I wouldn't put Cain batting 9 after the pitcher. He seems like he could become a pretty good all-around hitter. He was hampered by injuries, but they don't seem to be affecting him anymore. Here's to Cain replacing Gomez in 2011!!

No, which is why I also said: "I'm sure he does make calls, but it seems every quote I read makes me feel like he sits in his office waiting for the phone to ring." The point is that Bush is better than a number of #5 starters on playoff-hopeful teams. We get nothing by letting Bush walk at the end of the season other than potentially being a little better in 2010 than we would be if Capuano started instead of Bush. As far as the future goes, we're better off getting the proverbial "mid-tier prospect" than we are by letting Bush walk for nothing. For context, the question of this thread is whether the Front Office really believes that we're still in contention this season (or at least if they believed this prior to the Houston series). If Melvin didn't believe that we were still in contention, I find it hard to believe that he couldn't find anyone who would trade something for Dave Bush. I'd have to think a playoff team would trade a "mid-tier prospect" for Dave Bush, rather than trotting out a 5+ ERA guy to the mound every five days. So therefore I think Melvin actually did feel we were still in contention this season, and probably didn't work too hard shopping Dave Bush. Since no one called with an offer, Bush didn't go anywhere. I do think he shopped Hart, but would only bite if the return was someone who could fit into the rotation this year, thereby helping the 2010 Brewers "compete" for a playoff spot. Like last season, Melvin will figure out just a little bit too late that we aren't going to make the playoffs. Hopefully this year whoever he tries to slip through waivers makes it, unlike Hoffman last season. Again, why does this matter? Well, if we trade some of the pending FAs (who we'll get no draft picks for) for "mid-tier prospects," some of these prospects will pay off. If Cameron, Hoffman, Edmonds and Bush had been traded over the past two seasons, maybe one of the trades would have netted us someone who would end up in our rotation in the future. It's just some opportunities missed that potentially could have helped this team into the future. Mid-market teams need to take advantage of any opportunites they get.

Hart has been an All-Star because of his bat. He's been a bad RF, and if UZR is any indication, he's gotten/getting worse. I would love to see him at 1B provided he keeps hitting. Right, but when the option is to move Hart to a position that he hasn't played since he was a teenager and replace him in RF with someone who is known to be a bad defender who has never played RF in his life, my vote is to keep Hart in RF. If one of our young corner OFs were MLB ready, I would agree that moving Hart to 1B could be the best option, but I don't want to move both Hart & Gamel to new positions. For Gamel, 1B should be a natural progression from 3B. He can take advantage of his range and corner IF defense without having to deal with the throws which are giving him problems. Now he just has to learn to scoop, which he has the rest of the season of AAA to practice.

I'm glad to see that Hart wanted to be in Milwaukee. All the talk that no one ever wants to play in Milwaukee is getting tedious. That said, I'm worried about this deal and agree with the posters who have said that we just bought high on Corey Hart. A couple months ago, many posters felt that $4.8MM was way too much to pay for a player as bad as Hart, and after a few hot months, many are happy that we're guaranteeing him $9MM a year in 2012 & 2013. If he has truly "found it," and is going to continue his torrid 2010 pace, then this is a good deal. If he reverts to his 2008/2009 full season numbers, than this deal will fall into the Bill Hall contract range. I hope the former is true. I worry that in 2012/13 we'll be screaming for the Brewers to DFA Hart and let Gindl/Schafer/Davis/someone else take over in RF. That said, it does answer some questions and give us some clarity going forward. Hart will be in RF next year with Gamel likely at 1B (why move Hart to a position he hasn't played for years simply to replace him with someone who's never played OF?). Cain should be in CF, so barring any big trades outside of Fielder, our 2011 offense is basically set. It'll probably be a bit worse than this season, but still in the upper half of offenses in the NL.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/a...id=mil&partnerId=rss_mil "Yet Bush, 30, is generating almost no trade buzz. "I get a kick out of teams talking about all of these other pitchers, and [bush] has more quality starts than all of them," general manager Doug Melvin said. "He's pitched as well or better than some of these names I hear on the trade front. "His name never comes up. That's fine. That's Dave Bush. He always goes under the radar." Nobody wanted Bush. But shouldn't Melvin have called other GM's to "bring his name up," rather than calling the paper to joke about no one else bringing his name up? The Cardinals traded Ludwick to get Westbrook, and Bush is having as good a season as Westbrook and costs about 1/3 as much (Westbrook is making $11MM this year). It seems that when anyone's name is brought up, Melvin always responds that either "no one is calling," or "I've received some calls." According to rumors, with Hart, it was Sabean in town asking about Hart which led to other teams inquiring about him. In a different article I read, Melvin made a statement to the effect of "When other GM's call asking about a player, I tell them that they're the one who called, so what are they willing to offer." Does Melvin ever initiate trade dialogue? It's easy when someone calls with an offer to simply listen to their offer and ask for more, but you have to be on the phone to everyone. I'm sure he does make calls, but it seems every quote I read makes me feel like he sits in his office waiting for the phone to ring. To me, it's hard to believe that some team in need of pitching help for a playoff push wouldn't have given us something for Dave Bush. The Phillies are starting Joe Blanton (5.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), The Marlins have Volstad (4.71 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and Nate Robertson (5.47 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), San Diego's got Kevin Correia (5.06 ERA, 1.84 WHIP), the Angels have Kazmir (6.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), Texas has Scott Feldman (5.46 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) and Rich Harden (5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP), the Twins have Nick Blackburn (6.66 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and Scott Baker (5.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), the Yankees had injuries to Burnett and Pettite and may want insurance, and the Red Sox have Wakefield (5.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and Beckett (6.33 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Granted, some of these pitchers are better than Bush, and ERA/WHIP was just a quick way I looked, but just this quick glance showed me quite a few teams that could at least have some interest in Dave Bush to help as a back-of-the-rotation starter for a playoff push. Again, we're getting nothing for him when he walks at the end of the season, so anything we'd get in a trade would be better than nothing. The only way Bush helps us is by making us a little better this season, so not trading him seems to mean that we'd rather be slightly better this year rather than slightly better in future years. Not a big deal in and of itself, but when combined with not trading Edmonds this year or Cameron and Hoffman last year, trading away a useful bench bat in Cole Gillespie, etc, and pretty soon all these deadline opportunities for slight improvements add up.

If they really didn't think they were still in contention this year, then why didn't they trade Dave Bush? He won't be around next year and he won't bring us any draft picks when he leaves. All he does is gives us a chance to possibly win an extra game or two this season over his replacement (probably Capuano). He's a decent pitcher who isn't owed much money for the rest of the year, so we should've been able to get a decent prospect for him (read: not a "top prospect," but someone who projects to help our MLB team in the future). As far as "what will happen next?" Well, Hart's signed now, so our chance of helping our 2011 rotation just got a little smaller. Basically, now we have (A) the probable offseason Fielder trade (B) Free agency and © Rivas, Rogers, etc from the minors. Since we will need to get a "proven MLB" guy for Fielder, we'll likely get someone pretty good with 1-2 years left on his contract or someone not quite as good with 3-4 years on his contract. I'd guess we'll once again pick up a free agent pitcher, and I just hope it's a 1-2 year deal with Vazquez, as the FA SP market is pretty thin, and at least Vazquez is a high K guy, which we need as our defense will not be improved next year. So, 2011's roster will look a lot like this year's roster. Cain will probably be in CF, with Gomez a backup, and Gamel will probably be at 1B instead of Fielder. Our rotation will include Yo, Wolf, and probably Parra, along with the player received in the Fielder trade, and a probable free agent guy. Our offense will be worse with the loss of Fielder, and I hope our rotation will be better. I really, really hope the new manager makes a big difference.

Most of the words typed on these pages by every poster are assumptions/opinions, and I did use the term "I think" many times and I even admitted that my belief is unfounded. Of course the statement you quoted is an assumption. Unless I had Melvin's phone tapped, I'd have no idea how many phone calls he's made or recieved. However, I don't dislike Melvin. I have been one of his biggest supporters for a long time. What I don't like is that this is the second year in a row where we I've been calling for us to trade off some players to help our franchise for the future, and nothing has been done (last year we actually did the opposite). I don't expect Melvin to read brewerfan.net and say "oh, Monty is calling for a trade, so we'd better trade," but like most people, if I feel strongly about something and the opposite happens, I get frustrated. Now it's the second year in a row, and it gets more frustrating. When Melvin makes comments like "nobody's calling with offers," it sounds like he's sitting on his butt waiting for the phone to ring. When reports come out that other teams are calling the Brewers and now are hearing that everyone's off the table because we have a shot at the playoffs this year, my head spins. I know it's a report, and it may be inaccurate, but it's all we have to go off of. It makes more sense to believe there's some credibility to the mountain of reports coming out than to believe that they are all just made up by reporters. A big part of a GM's job is to converse with the other GM's in the league and work deals that will benefit your team. Melvin traded Sexson, Overbay and Lee early in his tenure. Since then, he's seemed to be in a "playoff or bust" mode and I worry it will get us to "bust" quicker than it will get us back to the playoffs. Again, I believe that for the sake of a small/mid-market franchise, you occasionally have to trade MLB players in an effort to make your franchise better in the future. The only reality is that no moves have been made. Everything beyond that is speculation. I choose to believe that somewhere in the baseball universe, we could have made a trade or two in the past two years which would have helped our franchise for the future. Please, feel free to believe the opposite.

Why you keep responding only to me and no others as if I'm the only one who believes that there was the potential to trade Fielder and Hart for more than warm bodies notwithstanding, if we only build our farm through the draft, and we occasionally make trades of our prospects for MLB players, we will have a fairly barren farm system. If we do not have a fairly continuous flow of prospects coming from the minors to fill significant roles at the MLB level for league minimum, it will be very difficult to compete as a mid-market team. As I said earlier, if Melvin had actively shopped Fielder and Hart as opposed to waiting to see who called with offers, I think he could have found a deal worth making. He's stated numerous times that he feels you can get more for position players during the offseason, and I think that was his plan with Fielder all along. I have no problem with your belief that Melvin was offered nothing but used baseballs in return for two of the top bats on the market, but that belief is as unfounded as my belief that there was a deal out there worth making. So, "distinguish" all you'd like, I understand that some players are better than others.

Anyways, I don't see us even getting many offers at all in the offseason. I can't think of many teams with established MLB pitching that have a need for Prince that would give that established MLB pitching away. Especially when they could simply go out and sign someone like Dunn, Konerko, D. Lee or Berkman as a free agent. Plus, Adrain Gonzalez will probably be on the trading block as well. One of the reasons I thought a mid-season trade was attractive was that we could then sign a FA in the offseason with our free cash. The wins between now and the start of next season are pretty meaningless to the Brewers, but they're very important for teams in the playoff hunt, so waiting for the offseason isn't as much of an option for playoff hopefuls as it is for the Brewers. If recent reports are true, it doesn't matter, because Melvin thinks we have a shot at the playoffs, so we aren't trading anyone. The question in the title of this thread may have been answered. For Melvin, it is never time to start selling.

I have numerous friends who had to relocate to Texas and Missouri (from Wisconsin) when the local GM plant closed, as they chose to continue to work at GM because the pay was much higher than any alternative. If players choose not to work for MLB, they are free to choose a job at any other company in the world that will employ them. I'd just guess the pay wouldn't be quite as good. The big problem with pay structure in MLB is that the teams operate (financially) as separate, rival entities inside of the MLB structure instead of operating as if they rely on each other for survival. The biggest issue that would change the face of the sport would be if all broadcast revenues were equally shared amongst all the teams in baseball, although even then the teams who own their own network could use tricky accounting to still maintain an advantage. Boras is the best in the business at working with the existing structure to assure that he will get the most commissions. Often this works out that his players benefit, but players who do not perform as expected or who get injured early are simply cast aside for the next "asset" in line. If a player is looking for someone who cares about what's in the player's best interest, Boras may not be the guy. If the player is looking to take a risk to potentially get the highest possible payout if all the stars align correctly, then Boras is your guy.

Melvin seems to refuse to ever want to be a "seller," even when it seems to be the obvious move. In my opinion, when you are a mid-market team, you have to choose your battles carefully. Buy when you really have a chance at the playoffs, and sell when you don't. Melvin has proven that he is willing to trade prospects for MLB guys in an attempt to make the playoffs. It worked with CC. However, if we never trade MLB guys for prospects when we don't have a realistic shot at the playoffs, all we'll end up with is a barren farm, which in today's world is a death notice to mid-market teams.

I would prefer another year of Fielder + a Type A comp pick over this kind of junk trade. J. A. Happ's career MLB stats: 47 games, 31 starts, 217 IP, 84 BB, 159 K, 14-5 W/L, 1.29 WHIP, 3.11 ERA If that's total junk, then I think we need more junk on our team.

It amazes me that other GM's get deals done, even when put in a bad position (Oswalt basically demanded a trade and then said it could only be to a select handful of teams), but we somehow aren't geting any reasonable offers for two of the best hitters on the market.

Why would we have any interest in trading anyone... we have a 0.00000000003% chance at making the playoffs. We should be buying!!!

I didn't see the whole article. Basically, I was just recapping what the author was saying in the first couple paragraphs. Probably just someone warping stats to say what he wants them to say :-)

ESPN has an article on why the Brewers should sell high on Corey Hart. It's an Insider article, and I'm not an Insider, so I didn't get the whole story. Looks to be comparing Hart to Jason Werth regarding how many of his home runs just barely clear the OF fence. Werth had a high percentage last year, foreboding a down year this year (which has happened). Hart apparently has a lot of "Just Enough" home runs this year, potentially foreboding a significant fall off next year.