monty57

I agree, but it's something to go off of. Otherwise, there's a huge range, from people saying they wouldn't take any less than a top prospect to people believing there's almost no trade value. I don't think that expecting a "Frelick level" prospect for Hader is too far off from reality, but maybe they find an anxious GM who really wants Hader and they can get more. We can all hope for that.

To add to my last post, some guys in the "Frelick range" according to MLB.com, who are on teams that are likely playoff contenders in 2023 are: 42) Michael Busch 1B/2B, Dodgers 47) Andy Pages OF, Dodgers Frelick is #48 52) Ronnie Mauricio SS, Mets 53) Andrew Painter RHP, Phillies 54) Luis Campusano C, Padres 55) Mick Abel RHP, Phillies 56) Ezequiel Duran INF, Rangers (maybe not a contender, but they spent big last offseason) I don't know how likely any of these guys are to be traded, but they're probably in the ballpark of what one year of Hader may be worth.

BaseballTradeValues.com has Hader's value at 15.2. For sake of reference as to what that would bring back, Sal Frelick is at 16.8, and Churio is 35.7. If we're looking at bringing a "not too far from MLB" prospect back, we're probably looking at someone along Frelick's level, which I believe is a Top 50-type prospect, but probably not a Top 10 or Top 20 guy. Bobby Witt, Jr, the heralded "top prospect in the game" coming into the season has a value of 108.7, while Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners is 121.4. That's the type of guy we'd try to target as a headliner in a Burnes (132.9) trade. Just for the record, Woodruff is at 51.9. Take these all with a grain of salt, but they're good for a point of reference as to what we might look for when discussing trades. The question then becomes, "what is more important to the Brewers, having one more year of Hader when we're a playoff caliber team, or getting another Frelick-level prospect who should be a solid contributor to the team for the next 6+ seasons?"

Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, and Lauer are all free agents at the same time. 2024 is the final year of team control for all of them. Gustave is too, but he's not quite at the same level. Peralta is the only one of this year's opening day starting rotation who will be around in 2025, and that is the final (option) year of his contract. That's why guys like Ashby and Small are so important, and any thoughts of trading them away sends shivers down my spine.

NBBrewFan, I too would like to see Hiura (128 wRC+) get more PT, but how can you argue that he should get more PT based on this year's results while knocking Caratini (128 wRC+), Brosseau (134 wRC+) Peterson (112 wRC+), Renfroe (111 wRC+), and Tellez (106 wRC+)? I don't get the argument. We needed to get rid of Cain and his 31 wRC+ and we did, but while Taylor is an average player, he's been hurt and Davis hasn't been very good as a replacement. Unfortunately, Hiura isn't an answer for this. Hopefully Taylor gets and stays healthy, and I'd guess that Stearns is going to try to find help on the trade front in CF. I've been negative on McCutchen, and think that the Brewers should have given some of his PAs to Hiura. They didn't, and with his recent hot streak McCutchen is going to get an even longer leash. I just hope that he plays well going forward, and that June wasn't the anomaly, as he's been back to below average in July. If he remains below average as the season goes on, maybe Hiura will get more starts at DH, but I don't think that'll happen quickly. Tellez has been okay this year, but he has "reversed his reverse splits" this year, hitting better against RHP (114 wRC+) than LHP (92 wRC+). Hiura could see some PAs here, but Tellez certainly hasn't forced himself to the bench. So, I guess I agree with you that I'd like to see Hiura get PAs as a guy who has always been a good hitter that is finally showing some life. I don't agree with an "everyone else sucks" theory. We came into the season as a team that was heavy on pitching, with an average-ish offense. We've had some injuries, but currently have 8 guys with a wRC+ over 100, and 6 guys in the 90-100 range. That's pretty much what we expected, and of the six underperformers, only McCutchen (97) and Wong (95) play positions Hiura can play, and it's arguable to say that Hiura is capable of playing 2B well enough to justify putting him there on a regular basis. Plus, Wong has a 115 wRC+ vs RHP, and a 24 wRC+ vs LHP. As much as I've argued against Hiura being used vs LHP, that's really where we could use someone, and it's why Brosseau has been extremely valuable to the team this year. Before being sent down, Hiura was getting more starts vs RHP in kind of a "super utility" role (LF, 2B, 1B, DH). If he isn't dealt, I think he'll continue that role when/if he's called back up. He'll have a limited opportunity to continue to prove himself, but I still think that he'll have an uphill battle to try to retain a roster spot next year as he hits arby and starts to become more expensive. I hope he does it, and grabs hold of the DH role, as it would save the Brewers from having to sign "another McCutchen." I'd just say that the odds are against him at the current time.

That's an understandable position, and one that I think a lot of fans will support. I'll look at three scenarios that I think kind of fit the current situation: 1) "The Rays": This has been brought up a lot, and I think there is merit. Despite a low payroll, and continually trading away key players, they are able to constantly bring in quality young players so they're always relevant, even in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. It's not often I say this, but the Brewers actually have an economic advantage over the Rays, so I'd like to think that we could be more of a "Cardinals model," where we can occasionally extend players and bring in free agents, but it's still important to trade away guys who are nearing free agency (and who aren't going to extend) to bring in the young talent that will sustain the team. 2) "The A's": This past offseason, the A's found themselves in the situation the Brewers will be in next year if they don't trade away some players this offseason. They had a ton of talent, but they were in their arby years and they couldn't afford them, so they did a firesale and are now pretty weak at the MLB level. They did trade everyone that was nearing free agency rather than lose them "for nothing," so the downswing might not be as long and painful, but they're pretty bad at the MLB level right now. I went into some detail in an earlier post, so I won't rehash it all here, but the Brewers' arby raises are getting pretty steep, so even though they could keep a good portion of the team together next year, I doubt they'd be able to afford to keep everyone in 2024. Regardless of desire, I think finances will force them into trading some guys before then. 3) "The Cubs": At any point in the past few years, the Cubs could have traded one or two of their pieces away. Instead, they held onto everyone until the last minute. Every year, you could see the team was a little less talented than the prior year, as the key guys got more expensive so they had less money for the remaining guys on the 26-man. As guys walked, they were replaced with lesser talent, and finally they were an average team with a high-payroll that was set to lose most of it's talent at the end of the year. They were able to trade the guys, but I would assume it was for far less than they would have gotten if they had more "team control" left. They're now in the unenviable position of having a below average (but not horrible) team at the MLB level that looks like it will tread water for quite a while without a clear path to becoming a good team in the foreseeable future. This is where I see the Brewers if we try to hold onto everyone through free agency. This year, we'll lose McCutchen, Peterson, Narvaez and probably Wong. Next year, it will be Hader, Renfroe, Suter, Severino, Gott, and Caratini. Other than Hader, these aren't our "superstars," but they play vital roles on the team, and their salaries will be eaten up with arby raises to the guys we're holding onto. Unfortunately, as the Cubs found out, the superstars aren't enough to take you to the playoffs. You need solid guys around you, and when all of your payroll is taken up with the star players, the your role players just aren't good enough to get you to the playoffs. The Cubs got lucky in that the team fell apart in the final year. Imagine where the franchise would be if they were in the playoff hunt and didn't trade away Bryant, Rizzo, Baez and Kimbrel. If the Brewers hold their guys to free agency and they're somehow still a playoff team in 2025, we will be left with nothing in 2026. We would be in far worse shape than the current Cubs team. No doubt we would lessen our chances at the playoffs in 2023 if we trade Woodruff and Hader, but we would get talent in return, and we'd have money for upgrades elsewhere on the roster. If things are done right, I think we'd have as much chance at the playoffs in 2024 if we trade guys as we would if we try to hold onto everyone we can afford, as I don't think a team with a few stars but little talent around them would be that good. I think our chances at the playoffs beyond 2024 are far greater if we trade some impending free agents for young talent than they would be if we lose all of that talent to free agency. Finally, in a scenario I don't think is realistic, I think we'd deeply regret signing Burnes to a long-term deal, as having him and Yelich eating up a big chunk of our payroll would be far too limiting for our small market to handle.

That is why I think the "breakup" should be done over 2-3 years rather than trying to do it all at once. There is no doubt that there will be some pain felt by the fanbase. Attanasio's stated goal since he hired Stearns has been to build a franchise to maintain continued success, so I do not think there is a chance they will sit back and let all of their talent walk away as free agents and get nothing in return. Therefore, I try to look at what might be the best road to take when none of the choices seem ideal. They can trade some this offseason, and some next offseason, or they can try to hold them together one more year and then try to trade everyone in the same offseason. I think the best chance to limit the pain and have a shot at remaining competitive is to do the trades over a few seasons, and not try to do it all in one year. If they are able to make some moves, then it also opens the possibility of extending some guys. I think the superstars (Burnes, Hader, and Woodruff) have priced themselves out of Milwaukee, but that doesn't mean other lower-priced players couldn't be extended to maintain some stability. It also opens up some money to add some FAs to fill in some holes in the roster. There are a lot of teams that would like Hader, so I think that trading him prior to his final arby year is very likely. Woodruff is a harder pill to swallow, but might be necessary if they want to "maintain continued success" and try to avoid an extended rebuild. It's a tough decision, and I'm interested to see what path the Brewers take. What I laid out is just my opinion on what might be the best path.

I wasn’t saying the draftees would immediately have an impact, just that Brewers’ management seems to like guys with good plate vision who make good contact and rarely strike out. In other words, they’re looking for guys whose game is the polar opposite of Hiura. Read my prior posts, I want Hiura to get more PAs, but the same people who are drafting guys with good bat-to-ball skills, low K rates, and good defense are the ones who decide the make-up of the MLB roster. They’ll try to hold onto the three catchers because Narvaez is a FA next year but they have control over Severino and Caratini so they don’t want to lose them. They’ve let McCutchen play every day even when he was slumping terribly, so they’re going to continue to play him every day. Next year, they’ll replace Wong with Turang and use the savings to find another one-year vet to be their primary DH. I don’t see a reason to continue to worry myself over it. Even though Hiura has been good against RHP in a limited sample-set, the Brewers don’t like his style of play, so they’re not going to go out of their way to find a spot for him. I expect they’ll make some moves in the near future, and that will probably end any chance Hiura has at cracking the roster, so it’s probably likely that he is included in one of the upcoming trades.

For those watching the draft, I think Stearns & Co made pretty clear how they feel about swing-and-miss guys. I've made the case why I thought Hiura deserved more PAs this year to see if he's found something, but I think the Brewers want to go in the direction of higher contact guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hiura shopped this trade deadline, and if they can't find a trade, possibly DFA'd after the season rather than sticking with him into his arby years.

I'd highly doubt the team is looking to trade Hader now (or during this season), but I think there is a very good chance he's traded this offseason. As good as he is, he's still a reliever so he won't bring back as much as some hope for, but he'll bring back a decent haul. He's heading into his final arby year, so it would be nice to get something for him rather than losing him "for nothing," and he'll probably make around $15M in his final arby year, and payroll could be pretty tight next year so that money could help out elsewhere. Finally, while it would obviously hurt to lose him from the bullpen, at least we have Williams to step into the closer role and Boxberger to set him up. Losing a "best in the business" guy will always leave a hole, but our bullpen should still be a strength, and the guys we get back and the money saved can help us improve elsewhere on the field.

I got bored a few weeks ago, and did a spreadsheet of an estimate of the Brewers' 2023 salaries. These are rough guesses, and could be way off, but I figured that after losing McCutchen, Narvaez & Peterson to free agency, they could field a team for around $132M (opening day payroll 2022 was $131.9) consisting of: OF: Yelich, Taylor, Renfroe, Davis IF: Tellez, Wong, Adames, Urias, Brosseau, Hiura C - Caratini, Severino SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Lauer, Ashby RP: Hader, Williams, Suter, Boxberger, Gott, Cousins, Milner, Topa Note that this is 14 pitchers, so there would need to be one less pitcher and one more position player. This is simply using the guys who were on the roster at the time. For sake of the model, it'd be pretty easy to drop off Topa, who is making $720,000 this year. In my opinion, this would keep the salary around where it is today, but we'd be without McCutchen, Narvaez and Peterson, who have already combined for 778 PAs for the Brewers this year. That's a lot of PAs to make up. I expect they will not exercise Wong's option, which would save them $8M. I'd guess they'll replace him with Turang for league minimum. They could let Hiura go, saving around $1.25M from my estimate of his first year arby number. Combined, these moves would allow for another McCutchen-type addition. The plan may be to keep Severino and Caratini to make up for the loss of Narvaez, and that may be why they're willing to stick with three catchers at this point. These moves would leave us around equal to this year - probably a little less talented, but with most of the same pieces in place. However, if they do this they will lose Hader, Renfroe, Suter, Gott, Caratini, and Severino as free agents at the end of the year. That's a lot to lose "for nothing," but maybe more importantly they would be going into the offseason following the 2023 season with one year remaining on Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Houser, and Lauer. That is why this thread hits on a very important decision. Does the team start trading away guys this offseason, do they do an all-out firesale after the 2023 season, or do they "go for it" for a few seasons and lose an immense amount of talent to free agency, no doubt sending the team into a long, cold winter. My guess is that they will shop Hader and Woodruff this offseason. Unless the market is extremely dry, I think Hader is very likely to be traded, and there is a very good chance that Woodruff is traded. That should bring back a ton of talent, and allow for us to have some funds to spend to remain competitive with a rotation of Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, and Ashby with Williams moving to the closer role, and our prospects getting one year closer to the MLB. Then I believe they will trade Burnes and Adames the following season, and decide what they want to do with Lauer and Houser. Again, they will bring back a ton of talent, and hopefully with our current prospects advancing, along with the mounds of talent we'd get back in all these trades, and some free agent pick-ups with the money we'd save, we could maintain the "continually competitive" stance Attanasio has preached since hiring Stearns. It's a lot to hope for, and they have to hit on the trades, but I don't believe that Attanasio will ride these guys to free agency, get nothing in return, and go into 2025 bereft of talent and looking at years and years of futility. Our chance at a World Series by "playing it out" isn't high enough to risk that outcome.

The Keston Hiura debate has been going on all season. I've repeatedly said that he wasn't 2x better than the average player vs RHP, not is he 100% worse than the average player against LHP, but since he has been hitting RHP better than any other Brewer this season, I thought that they should give him regular PAs against righties to see if the changes he made during the offseason worked. He could sink or he could swim, but I thought he deserved the shot. To use your words, play him while he's doing the "unsustainable," then sit him down when/if he starts to falter. Instead, he was continually sat on the bench every game a righty started and only saw the field when a lefty was on the mound. The only time he saw righties was against bullpen arms, often set-up guys and closers. It's hard for any player to succeed in that scenario. After half a season, Counsell must have recognized something, because Hiura finally started getting some starts against RHP and not surprisingly his numbers improved. Unfortunately, that didn't last long because due to a roster crunch he had to get sent down. I'm not surprised that he got sent down, I'm just disappointed that he wasn't used differently while he was here. Who knows, if the Brewers had given him more of a shot he might have proven himself to be positive player for the Brewers, not only this year but for several years to come.

I haven't followed the farm system as much as I used to, so I wanted to get everyone's opinion on this. It is very likely that the Brewers will not exercise Wong's option, leaving an opening in the 2023 Brewer infield. Being the Brewers' top infield prospect, that would seem to open up a huge opportunity for him. From those who know more about his game than I do, what seems to be the most likely scenario? 1) Turang takes over second base. 2) Turang takes over third base with Urias moving to second. 3) Turang takes over shortstop with Adames moving to third and Urias moving to second. 4) Turang plays a utility role, with someone like Brosseau or a FA pick-up starting. 5) Turang isn't ready yet, and stays in the minors to start 2023. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. I put this in the Minor League forum because Turang is a prospect, but if a moderator thinks this should be in the MLB forum, feel free to move it there.

Hiura has been so good against RHP this year that even though he has been misused by the team and has been predominantly used against LHP against whom he has been terrible, his combined wOBA (.356) and wRC+ (128) are still better than any of our "regulars" this season. I understand that Hiura strikes out too much, but he has been their best hitter vs RHP this season, and there isn't even a close second. When the biggest complaint has been how our offense needs an upgrade, I don't understand what they're doing with him. McCutchen's hot streak (which hasn't been as hot as Hiura has been all season vs RHP) has him up to a -3.6 offensive bWAR and -0.1 overall bWAR for the season. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad McCutchen has remembered how to hit, and I want him to do well, but we still would have been far better off by simply platooning the DH position all season with Hiura facing RHP and McCutchen facing LHP. There are plenty of ways the Brewers could have found more PAs for Hiura this season, and since he's outhitting all of the other options, I think that would have made sense. It seems obvious that the Brewers are not going to allow him to get regular playing time and the high K rate is probably the reason, so I'm getting to the point that I wish they'd just trade him so he can put up a .900+ OPS somewhere that will use him correctly.

Good news that Taylor was cleared. I'm sure that when Cain was let go, the plan was for Taylor to be the everyday CF to see how he does in an everyday role. Davis was just a guy brought up because you need a backup for every position on the field, and no one else was a suitable backup CF. He is not expected to get many PAs when the team is healthy. Taylor is a clear upgrade over Davis or the ghost of Cain that was on the field earlier this season. The big question for CF is whether they will need an upgrade over Taylor. He'll get a couple of weeks to continue to try to prove himself. Halfway through the season (much of which he was on the bench or injured) he is posting a 0.8 WAR, which isn't terrible. He has a .228/.277/.423/.700 line, for a wRC+ of 93. He does play CF, where you can get away with a little less offense if you play good defense, and he has a 5.3 UZR/150 as a CF this season, and a 6.0 for his career. He actually has played better both this year and in his career at CF than he has at RF. He doesn't seem to be a guy we absolutely need to replace, but he's a guy who is replaceable if a clear upgrade is available. He does provide value as a 4th OF if Stearns finds a CF "rental", and if that happens Davis would be the obvious choice to get sent packing.

From the "eye test," Wong seems to have taken a step back this year, but I hadn't really looked at the numbers. For his career, he has posted a .657 OPS, 80 wRC+ vs LHP, and .748/104 vs RHP. This season, he is at .343 OPS / 10 wRC+ vs LHP and .837 / 131 vs RHP. So yeah, he shouldn't be starting against LHP. His fielding has also turned negative across the board, including a -9.7 UZR/150. There is no reason to keep him on the field for his glove anymore. Different topic, but he's making it pretty easy to give him the $2M buyout after this season and save $8M to use elsewhere next year. Urias (.844 OPS/137 wRC+) at 2B and Brosseau (1.010 OPS/182 wRC+ vs LHP) at 3B seems to be a no brainer when a lefty is starting.

I don't want to keep sounding like a Hiura apologist, but he does still have a ton of potential if he can put it together, so he should get more opportunity than some journeyman utility IF or AAAA guy. It's very limited, but in the 28 innings he's had in LF, he has a UZR/150 of 18.4. Just because he is an historically bad second baseman doesn't mean he can't learn to be a decent corner OF. Nothing really can be garnered by looking at 28 innings of defense, but it's a lot better that he has been good in those 28 innings than bad. Making statements like "compared to Hiura, Dahl is LoCain" doesn't seem to be based on anything other than the belief that because he's a bad 2B he must be a bad fielder anywhere he plays. As to his hitting, I know he strikes out a lot, but he has an OPS of 1.069 and a wRC+ of 194 vs RHP this season. He should be playing over everyone else against RHP unless he proves this to be a fluke. He was drafted and came through the minors as a "pure hitter." He stumbled in the crazy 2020 campaign, and that carried over into 2021, but it is entirely possible that a guy who has always been a great hitter can remember how to hit. Hiura has been given extremely sporadic playing time vs RHP, and even with that he has continued to destroy them all season. It looks like Counsell is finally starting to give in, and is giving him some starts vs righties, and I'm glad for it. It is entirely possible that he fails, but I'm rooting for him, because if he can "find it," even if it is only against RHP, he could be a huge upgrade to our offense for the next several years. So for my "suggested roster move," it's to find a spot for Hiura in the "vs RHP" lineup.

I think that trying to extrapolate data off of a subset of 40 "vs .500 or better" games is not going to be very predictive. Besides the normal "baseball being baseball," and "over a short series any team can beat any other team," there are a lot of variables in a small sample size. For example, who was injured during those games? We've had a lot of injuries this year, including times where it seemed most of our offense was down. Did this happen to occur when we faced a good team, or when we faced a bad team. Was this similar or different to what happened when another "playoff hopeful" faced a ".500 or better team?" What pitchers did we face? Of course teams are going to score less against a great pitcher than they are against a "bum." If we faced the other team's top of the rotation, but another "playoff hopeful" team faced the bottom of the rotation, it would make sense that we'd score less runs. Was someone slumping or was someone on a "hot streak"? As noted with McCutchen, he was horrible and then had a great month. Streaks and slumps are part of baseball. Over a small sample, it can make a player or a team look great, or it can make them look terrible. Last year, we slumped as a team at the end of the season, leading to a quick exit from the playoffs. Hope isn't a good strategy, but over a short series, we really have to hope that our guys are hot rather than cold when the playoffs come around this year. There are a lot of things that could be going on, so bottom line is that it's probably not a good idea to base any judgement off of a small sample set. This year's Brewers are built on pitching. We're over budget and didn't have the resources to "just go grab a big bat." We'll see if great pitching and an "average-ish" offense is enough to win it all. It should at least be enough to get us into the playoffs, which is a great start, because one guarantee is that if you don't make the playoffs you won't win the World Series.

Is there something behind the defense? Usually defense falters due to injury or age. You don't normally see a good fielder forget how to play defense. If he hasn't been permanently injured, and he's still fairly young (28), then it would seem that the defense could get back where it was. That said, as much as we could use an offensive upgrade, I'm not sure a low-average home run hitter is exactly what we need. We already score most of our runs off of the home run. Gallo does take some walks, but his 2020-2022 batting averages have been .181, .199, and .165. Even in today's baseball, that's pretty bad. As Brewcrew82 said, the price tag would have to be pretty cheap for him to be worth the Brewers taking him on and hoping he turns things around, especially if they'd take on the remaining $5M or so he's owed this year.

Fangraphs has a new article up that I thought would be of interest here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-update-for-the-national-league/ They have used the "most robust version of ZiPS" to see where things stand at the halfway point. Spoiler alert, they have the Brewers with a 75.4% chance of making the playoffs, stating that Peralta's injury is a big reason the odds aren't better.

Why do you have to trade them for less than their value? Any trade involves risks by both parties, but the Brewers aren't going to willfully accept less value than they are giving up. The team giving up the "proven" guy usually gives up 1-2 years of service time in return for a number of guys with 6 years of service time. It's pretty common for the team receiving the "prospect package" to get a lot more WAR out of the players received than they would have received from 1-2 years of the star player that was traded. In the Sabathia trade, he had a phenomenal year, amassing 7.4 WAR, so let's say we got 4 WAR for a partial season. We gave up Brantley who gave the Indians a total of 20.20 WAR over his years in Cleveland. Even though most of the guys in the trade didn't pan out, the one who did made it a great trade for Cleveland. In the Grienke trade, we got around 5 WAR in 1.5 seasons, but gave up Cain (20.80 WAR for KC), Escobar (11.40 WAR for KC) and Odorizzi who gave the Rays 6.8 WAR after being traded there from KC. We traded Gomez, who had 2.2 WAR in 2015 when he was traded (0.2 WAR in 2016) for Hader (10 WAR so far), Houser (4.4 WAR), Santana (4.4 WAR for the Brewers) and Phillips who brought us Moustakas in trade. As I said earlier, there is always risk, but the return we could get from any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames could be the core of the next great Brewer team. The return we'd get from trading all of them plus guys like Hader, Houser, Lauer and others over the next few years should keep us in playoff contention for years to come. I like seeing players extended, but Burnes and Woodruff have priced themselves out of the Brewers' market. They deserve, and will likely get huge contracts, and the Brewers will not be the ones who sign them.

I think the Angels have shown that having two of the best players in baseball (if not the two best players in baseball) doesn't get you a winning team. The Brewers cannot afford to pay Yelich $26M, Burnes $30M+ and Hader $20M+. That would leave us around $50-some million for the remaining 23 players, and that would not be enough to keep the Brewers in playoff contention.

Sad as it may be, I agree with those that don't think a big extension to one of our arby stars is coming. We have great players, and they are going to demand contracts that are too big for the Brewers' payroll. If they're going to extend someone, it probably has to be someone who is currently in the pre-arby years like Ashby or Williams. Although I think he'll be traded this coming offseason, there is some argument to be made that we could ride out Hader's contract to free agency. I don't see any valid argument for holding Burnes or Woodruff to free agency. Both of them would bring back franchise-changing talent, so we can't risk losing that for one final season at the MLB level. I think the odds are pretty high that Hader will be traded this offseason, and I also expect a starting pitcher to be traded. My question is whether they "go big" and trade Woodruff (I think he'll be traded before Burnes) or if they go smaller and trade Houser or Lauer. I think their first choice would be to bring back some talent that is either already in the MLB or is close to MLB ready, but if the best deal centered around potential star talent at the lower levels, I think they'd take the best deal. The bad news is that we will likely see some good players traded away over the next few seasons. The good news is that when you trade away good players, you usually get a lot of talent in return, so if it's done correctly we have the chance to remain "sustainably relevant" beyond the next couple of years.

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.

On a straight-up trade, baseballtradevalues.com gives Tellez a 10.4 value, and Bell a 5.6 value. In their current state, I don't know if the Nats would add any of their good prospects to make it work, but maybe they throw in another MLB piece to even things up. If we're looking at prospects, it'd probably cost someone like Small or a similarly valued prospect to bring Bell over. The Nats are an interesting team, as they have made a long-term offer to Soto. If they sign him, they may try to add some MLB pieces to win sooner rather than later. In that case, Tellez may have some appeal. If they can't sign him and are forced to trade him, then they will probably go into rebuild and will be looking for prospects rather than MLB guys. I'm not against trading Tellez, but if we do trade him for Bell, we will lose Bell after the season and go into the offseason in need of a first baseman with little money to spend on one. It could help this year (assuming Bell continues to produce at his current pace and doesn't "regress to the mean"), but would hurt our chances of remaining competitive next year.