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monty57

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Everything posted by monty57

  1. monty57
    I think we need to see how bad Peralta's injury is before deciding the best course of action. If it's a start or two, any "spot starter" can be used. If it's more serious, then Brewer management will have to decide whether they want Ashby or Small in the rotation for an extended period. If they choose Small, then that would be pretty telling that they view Ashby as a reliever going forward. I'd prefer that they give Ashby a shot to prove himself as a starter where he could be much more valuable to the team.
  2. monty57
    If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.
  3. monty57
    If Taylor doesn't produce, then a rental seems the most likely, but then I remember that this move will be made by the same guy who got us Adames and Tellez. If there is a guy out there who is a good player, but for some reason doesn't have a clear shot at a starting job, Stearns will find him.
  4. monty57
    We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.
  5. monty57
    We're about 1/4 of the way into the season. I think it's time for Taylor to get the starting spot, with Cain coming in late as a defensive replacement. That can give management some time to see what Taylor can do so they'll know if they need to make a mid-season trade for a CF starter. Cain is in the "sunk cost" category now, so his salary shouldn't be a consideration any longer. He'll be paid no matter what, and there's no way he's coming back next year, so the team just needs to do what's best for the team.
  6. monty57
    Fair enough, but I'm still concerned about his "current strength" as well. He looked so bad the past couple of seasons that he really needs to prove himself all around. If he ends up being a guy that mashes RHP, but can't hit lefties, then he could build a decent career around that. I'm happy that he's shown some life this year and I'm rooting for him. Him "fixing things" would go a long way in helping the Brewers for he next few years.
  7. monty57
    Totally agree. My statements on Hiura are kind of along the theory of "if a guy hits three HR in a game, you don't sit him the next day." Right now, Hiura is hitting righties well so let him play out the hot streak and see what happens. This is especially true when the alternative is McCutchen, who hasn't hit well against righties in three years. As I mentioned, Hiura will undoubtedly hit better against LHP and worse against RHP than he has so far this year, but he's done well enough so far vs RHP (especially relative to McCutchen) that I'd like to see him get more playing time for a while to see if he has figured something out, or if he's just been "lucky." He's still striking out a lot, so maybe he'll fall on his face... but maybe he won't.
  8. monty57
    I could see some merit if the player is also used to their strength. This season, Hiura's starts have generally come against LHP. His PAs vs RHP have come when a RH reliever comes in later in the game, like yesterday when he hit a monster shot to win the game that he was only in because lefty Fried started. Around 3/4 of the pitchers in baseball are RH, and YTD Hiura has 21 PA vs LHP (with a 0 wRC+) and 26 PA vs RHP (with a 194 wRC+). Of course there would be reversion to the mean as the PAs pile up. He's not completely worthless vs LHP as his 0 wRC+ would denote, and he's not 94% above average vs righties, but at this point he is crushing righties, while McCutchen is not, so give Hiura the DH starts vs RHP, while letting McCutchen continue to crush lefties which at this point in his career is his specialty. The Brewers need to see if Hiura is a capable MLB player or if he should be thrown to the curb. Trying to eke out some extra value is a ways down the road. Let's first see if he's worthy of a roster spot by playing to his strength.
  9. monty57
    Hiura hasn't played well enough to be "given" anything, but McCutchen hasn't hit RHP since 2019, so I think the Brewers could give Hiura some DH reps vs RHP to see how he performs. McCutchen vs RHP 2022: 80 PA, .236/.300/.319/.619 79 wRC+ 2021: 379 PA, .186/.298/.352/.650 76 wRC+ 2020: 170 PA, .242/.294/.389/.683 81 wRC+ Hiura vs RHP 2022: 24 PA, .250/.375/.550/.925 161 wRC+ 2021: 138 PA, .185/.279/.345/.624 69 wRC+ 2020: 183 PA, .202/.284/.429/.714 89 wRC+ Neither of them seem to be a good option to DH vs RHP, but if this is what we have right now, we might as well give some of the PAs vs RHP to Hiura. There's some reason to believe that Hiura has fixed something and could improve, while the 36-year-old McCutchen probably isn't going to get any better. Otherwise, we might as well just let some guys like Yelich and Renfroe get some rest by DHing every now and then against RHP and letting Taylor and Peterson get more playing time. They aren't heralded former Top 10 picks, or former MVPs, but they've outproduced Hiura and McCutchen (and Cain) for quite a while.
  10. monty57
    Any word yet on reinstating McCutchen? The Brewers' site doesn't have anything other than this from McCalvy: The Brewers, however, did not immediately activate him. "We need to see him. Let us see him," manager Craig Counsell said. "He has [done some baseball activity] but not to a level that we probably need it. It'll be a quick ramp-up. This is not a long process for him to get back ready, but we have to get him back in the building." Are they waiting to see if they need to put Adames on the IL before making a move on McCutchen?
  11. monty57
    Therein lies the question. Hiura has some value, but how much, and is it enough for the Brewers to trade him away rather than holding onto him for the remainder of the season to see if he can get things fixed enough that he can help them out? If there is one GM out there who likes him enough to give up a rental player who can help the Brewers win this year, than he'll probably be traded. If not, then we might as well hold him rather than giving him away for nothing. This is still a "risk free" year for the Brewers. Next year, when Hiura is out of options, things will be different.
  12. monty57
    Yeah, for a team that seems to be heavily into stats, and one that likes the concept of platooning players, Counsell can't seem to figure out the concept of splits / reverse splits. I really like Counsell, this is probably my only real pet peeve with him. So far this year, McCutchen has a .695 OPS / 91 wRC+ vs LHP and .619 OPS / 79 wRC+ vs RHP. He hasn't hit RHP in years, so he should be taken off the "everyday DH" role. Hiura has very limited PAs, but he had a .399 OPS / 18 wRC+ vs LHP (18 PAs) and a .925 OPS / 160 wRC+ vs RHP (24 PAs) before he was sent down. Hiura shouldn't hit against LHP, and Cutch shouldn't hit against RHP... seems like they'd be a decent platoon option. Both have their warts, but I guess beggars can't be choosers.
  13. monty57
    The only reason for the Brewers to trade Hiura this season is if someone gives up some value for him. Since it's probably unlikely that happens, they might as well hold on to him and see if his adjustments work. The best case scenario is that Hiura fixes things and can help the Brewers for a few years. If that doesn't happen, I'd think that they'll get just as much (little?) for him next offseason as they will in a mid-season trade, so we might as well wait until the offseason to see if Hiura can turn things around.
  14. monty57
    Martinez is making $19.375M this year, and the Brewers started this season with a $132M payroll, which was nearly $10M higher than their previous record opening day payroll. If the Red Sox trade Martinez, it will be for a combination of talent and salary relief. Since we wouldn't be able to provide much salary relief, we'd need to give up a lot of young talent in order to get the Red Sox to pay the salary. I'm not sure exactly how the tax works, but with Boston $11.8M over the tax threshold, and Martinez counting $22M towards the luxury tax, they'd may be more in favor of getting someone to take his salary rather than getting the extra talent. Does anyone know if it "resets the clock" if they get below the luxury tax threshold mid-season, or is it based on opening day salary?
  15. monty57
    Quick run-down of our CF prospects: I was hoping Mitchell would tear it up in Biloxi this year, and might be pushing for a mid-season call-up, but right now he's got a line of .216/.322/.343/.665. Probably not ready for the show yet. Sal Frelick was recently promoted and only has 26 AA ABs with a line of .192/.192/.231/.423. While he's got a shot to be "center fielder of the future," I highly doubt he's in the plans for a call up this year. I don't think anyone expects much from Ray anymore, and he's not proving his doubters wrong, with a line of .145/.185/.242/.427 in Nashville. 30-year old Johnathan Davis is posting a .318/.446/.341/.787 in AAA, but he has 222 MLB ABs over four seasons with a line of .171/.272/.248/.520. He was probably brought in for injury insurance, and isn't going to force Cain off the roster. It's early, and someone can get hot, but right now it's looking like a 2022 CF upgrade may have to come from outside of the organization. I hope Taylor gets his shot at starting, and I hope he runs with it. That could be a nice bridge to guys like Mitchell and Frelick.
  16. monty57
    It's still early, but Fangraphs has Cain sitting around -0.1 WAR, so that would be around -0.7 or so WAR for the season if he keeps playing the way he has. Pre-season projections had him pegged for around 1.1-1.3 WAR, mostly coming from defensive value, so there's hope that he can improve. He's had a long career and will get a little more "leash" than you'd give a guy with less tenure to see if he can turn things around, but I'd guess that the Brewers are doing some homework to decide what "plan B" is if Cain continues to struggle. Taylor is the obvious short-term solution. He's already on the team, he has a good chance to outperform Cain going forward, and we need to see what he can do so we'll know if he can be relied on in the future. I'd start giving him the majority of the starts soon, with Cain as the backup (the Brewers give their 4th OF plenty of playing time). If neither one heats up, then a move will probably be made around trade deadline to bring in (or call up) a new starting CF.
  17. monty57
    I think Counsell is a good manager, and I think that he and Stearns communicate and work together pretty well. Your final sentence hints that there is a lack of trust and/or communication between Stearns and Counsell, and I don't think that's the case. Right now, Cain has 74 ABs and Taylor has 65. While Taylor is hitting better than Cain, he's certainly not hitting so well that he's forcing himself into a starting role. I'd like to see Taylor named the starter to see what he can do, with Cain finishing out his career as the 4th OF where he can still provide some value. I think the only way they'd cut him would be if both Taylor and Cain continue to play so poorly that they decide to bring up Mitchell or Frelick as the starter later in the season. In that case, it might make sense to cut Cain and keep Taylor as the backup.
  18. monty57
    Still a lot of season to play, but it's nice to see the Brewers tied with the Angels and Mets for most runs scored to go along with one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. I expect an average offense from the Brewers. If they can maintain an above-average offense, they can go far. Fangraphs has them at 84.9% chance to win the division, 94.2% chance to make the playoffs, and 10.1% chance to win the World Series.
  19. monty57
    Baseball's streaky. A guy can be in a slump and quickly turn it into a hot streak. A healthy Urias is good for this team, so I'm glad to see him back.
  20. monty57
    The Peterson vs Brosseau debate probably comes down to Urias coming back, so they kept the LH guy up and sent the RH guy down. Urias is starting tonight, and should be expected to be the everyday guy going forward, so they really didn't need two utility infielders anymore.
  21. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  22. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  23. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  24. monty57
    I'll play along: Most improved: Hiura. Just an average year as a part-time DH/1B would be a big improvement over last season. Team MVP: Burnes. He's really, really good. Team ROY: Ashby. My runner up would be Mitchell, but that would require a long IL stint by Cain, which I hope doesn't happen. Gold Glove: Wong. We have solid defense on this team, which is a great thought as the Brewers haven't historically been very good on defense. Silver Slugger: Adames. With Tatis hurt, the SS Silver Slugger is up for grabs. I think offensively Adames can beat out guys like Lindor and Trea Turner. Wins: 97 - they're just as talented as last year's team, with Adames and Tellez there from day 1, and the division should be easier with the Cubs and Reds taking significant steps back talent-wise.
  25. monty57
    Per Baseball-Reference: Yelich had a 99 OPS+ and -1 Defensive runs saved/yr. Overall, a pretty average player. He lost his power, and sometimes looked lost at the plate, but overall put up average offensive numbers... just not nearly worth his contract extension. I don't know if it's mental, mechanical, or injury-related, but he needs to find his power stroke or that contract is going to haunt the Brewers. Hiura had a 49 OPS+ (that's not a typo) and actually played decent 1B with 3 defensive runs saved/yr. He was utterly horrendous and fully deserved to be sent to the minors. His minor league stints and productivity this spring give some hope, but he still has a lot to prove, and he really needs to cut back on his K rate. Even this spring he struck out 33.3% of the time. Overall, I'm very optimistic about the Brewers chances this year, but I'm not counting on either of these guys to be stars. If either of them "find it," and become the player we thought they were after 2019, then we'll run away with the division and could win 100 games.
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