monty57

It'll be interesting to see what the "multiple pitching prospects in return" adds up to. I would have liked to see Mancini as a Brewer for the rest of the season, so let's see what the price tag was.

The Cardinals are around a $150's to $160's payroll most years, and they're one of the most successful franchises in baseball. The Brewers have got themselves around the $130's, so the gap is getting smaller. Unless things drastically change, they'll always be at a disadvantage to the handful of "big market teams," but teams can maintain success in this payroll range, they just have to make smart moves. Paying a closer $20M/year isn't a smart move, and neither is allowing a good player to walk away in free agency. Hader needed to be traded at some point, and Stearns was able to take advantage of the "relievers get their highest value mid-season" theory while maintaining a solid bullpen for the remainder of this (hopefully) playoff campaign.

I think that's a good take on things. For those wanting a Top 100 guy or two, I think we'd have gotten that if Rogers wasn't included in the deal. But, we're trying to win this year, so it was important to get Rogers in the deal. Stearns continues to amaze me. I didn't think that there would be a chance Hader was traded because playoff teams don't trade their closers mid-season. Stearns did it and ended up not really hurting the bullpen, in that at least on paper Rogers and Lamet should provide as much as Hader this year. That's pretty amazing. The more I read about the young guys we got, the more I like them. They seem like guys who have improved their stock a lot, and neither is that far off from a potential move to Milwaukee. You never know with prospects, but there is reason to hope on them. If they keep up their progression, I think they'll be on some Top 100 lists soon for whatever that's worth.

From the articles I read, it sounds like he was a horrible 2B and had to move. Seems like he's doing a lot better at CF. Love the improvements he's made in pitch recognition. Do you think we could trade some of our "pitching lab secrets" to San Diego for some of their "Hitting lab secrets?"

I know this isn't the topic of the thread, but several posters have mentioned the Narvaez rumor and questioned whether Stearns is giving up on the season. At best, Narvaez is our second best catcher right now behind Caratini. He might even be our #3 catcher behind Severino, and he's going to be a free agent after the season. The only reason not to trade him is that I believe Severino is ineligible for the playoff roster. We just traded Hader without significantly downgrading our 2022 bullpen, while adding some pieces for the future. The rumors that we could be moving a catcher who is kind of wasting a roster spot have me intrigued.

That's true, but there are also posters who are calling Rogers "garbage" because of his BABIP-inflated 2022 ERA, when he's actually been one of the best relievers in baseball over his six year career. Taking emotions out of it, I think we got decent value for Hader. Stearns seems to be pretty good at evaluating young talent, and it appears that he likes Ruiz and Gasser, so I'm excited to see what they can provide.

Agree. Since 2017 (Hader's rookie season), Hader has posted 9.4 fWAR, and Rogers has posted 7.7 (he also had 0.7 in 2016). That is an extra 0.31 WAR/season. With the variability of relievers in baseball, there is a definite possibility that Rogers provides more value to the Brewers for the rest of this season than Hader would have. Probably not much less than a "coin flip's chance." Rogers is a good reliever, so having him in the package certainly limited the amount of "prospect capital" we should expect. Throw in that Lamet and Ruiz will probably help the team this year, and we might just be a bit better this year than we were prior to the trade. But we are also trading away the 2023 season of Josh Hader. I though he should be traded prior to exiting via free agency, so the question becomes "is this better than they would have received if they traded him in the offseason." No one knows for sure, but at least it sounds like both Ruiz and Gasser are talented guys who have really raised their prospect rating with their recent play. It is entirely possible that Ruiz will be our starting CF from his first day with the Brewers. It at least looks like he will take Davis' spot and split time with Taylor. He has a lot of tools and seems to have worked on his approach and has taken a lot of steps forward. Let's see if it all works out. Lamet should be Suter with better stuff. If he's over his injuries, he could even be a bit more than that. Middle relievers aren't going to rack up a lot of WAR, but they help you win (or lose) games. He's definitely got talent, but at this stage isn't a huge pickup. He'll probably be a good throw-in though. Gasser is the wildcard, and appears to be what could really swing this the Brewers' way. If he ends up giving the Brewers six years in the rotation, even as a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter, that will provide a lot more value to the Brewers than one year of Hader. Throw in that we're set to lose 4/5 of our rotation in a couple years, and Peralta the year after that, having another young starting pitcher with MLB potential is nice.

So Rogers becomes our left-handed setup man with Williams closing. It's a step back, but not nearly as big as it could be, as Rogers is one of the better relievers in baseball. He will be gone after this seasom Lamet is probably a multi-inning reliever with what appears to be two more years of arbitration remaining. Hopefully the Brewers see something there and he regains what made him a good starter early in his career. Since Hader's early days, the Brewers have done well by having a solid multi-inning guy or two in the 'pen, so he could provide some value in the "Suter role" Ruiz will probably take over Davis' spot on the roster and split time with Taylor in CF. Nothing to get too excited about, but should be a modest upgrade. Gasser seems to be moving up the charts a bit even though he's already 23. If he has indeed added a few MPH to his fastball and has a plus slider and change-up, he could be something. We didn't get a "can't miss" prospect, but since Rogers was in the deal along with two other guys who will likely be on the MLB roster, we probably couldn't have expected one.

MLB.com on Ruiz: Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40 A $100,000 signee by the Royals in July 2015, Ruiz was moved to the Padres two years later in a six-player deal at the Trade Deadline. Despite splitting time between two orgs, he managed to win 2017 Arizona League MVP honors after hitting .350/.395/.602 with 34 extra-base hits and 26 stolen bases in 52 games. Outside the stolen base totals, he never quite matched that production at the full-season levels and fell out of San Diego’s Top 30 last year after hitting just .249/.328/.411 with a 98 wRC+ in 84 games at Double-A San Antonio. He returned to the Texas League to begin 2022 and bounced back incredibly well in the first two months of the season. Ruiz has always shown promising bat speed and decent raw power from the right side. However, Padres officials had been concerned about his swing decisions on pitches outside of the zone, leading to either strikeouts or weak contact. The Dominican Republic native has worked with San Antonio staff in 2022 to cut down on the chase rate, causing his walk rate to nearly double while he’s done a better job of lifting the ball on contact. Ruiz has the speed to provide value, and he puts it to good use on the basepaths. His 158 steals from 2016-21 ranked sixth-most in the Minors over that span. Those wheels have helped him move from second to the outfield, and he’s been focused entirely on center to begin 2022. He’s still rough around the edges there with enough speed to make up for mistakes. Still only 23, Ruiz’s breakout could be enough to push him into a utility Major League role within the next two seasons.

From MLB.com's rankings: Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 Gasser spent his 2018 freshman season at New Mexico, then transferred to Delta JC and led California junior college pitchers in wins (14-0, 2.38 ERA) and strikeouts (139 in 102 innings). He still didn't get drafted in 2019 and didn't make much of an impression in 2020 after transferring to Houston. He opened eyes when he pitched seven scoreless innings against Texas right-hander and Tigers pick Ty Madden last February, and he ended up going 71st overall to the Padres, with whom he signed for slot value ($884,200) in 2021. Gasser's pro debut was brief -- 15 innings in rookie ball and Low-A -- but his stuff exceeded expectations and excited Padres officials. After previously operating in the upper 80s, Gasser's fastball ticked up last season and now sits in the low-to-mid 90s with running action. His slider has added power as well, sitting in the low 80s and showing flashes of becoming a plus pitch. Gasser also throws an above-average changeup, which surprised some in the Padres organization. The right-hander didn't use the pitch much as an amateur, but it's shown well so far in his pro career and could become a truly effective offering. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Gasser doesn't have a massive frame or overpowering stuff. However, he commands all his pitches well and knows how to pitch. He effectively moves the ball around the zone and could develop into an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.

What are they going to do with Lamet? Started his career as a promising starter, but hasn't had much success as a reliever in the past two seasons. If I recall correctly, there were some injury issues. Is he slated for a "Multi-inning reliever" role, or does he give them options to potentially trade a starter? He's kind of a weird add-on to the trade, but I hope they have a plan to make him a valuable addition to the roster.

Better be some damn good prospects.

Peralta has a ton of trade value, and any team hoping to compete over the next few seasons would love to have him. He has a lot less value to the Nationals who are undoubtedly going into a multi-season rebuild by trading away Soto. By the time they'll hope to be contending again, Peralta will be a free agent.

Maybe they have to trade Hader in order to fit Soto into the payroll for this year and next year ?

Caratini: 172 PA, .231/.355/.413, .342 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR Severino: 20 PA, .235/.350/.353, .318 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR Narvaez: 213 PA, .235/.324/.364, .306 wOBA, 94 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR, free agent after this season What sucks is that Severino won't be eligible for the playoffs. Otherwise, the move would be to keep Caratini and Severino and trade Narvaez. I think that their desire to keep Caraini and Severino around for next year is the reason Hiura is in AAA. That and the fact that they need a backup CF, and Brosseau hits LHP really well. In the Brewers' minds, those things trump the pluses Hiura brings to the table. If Hiura wasn't complete inept against LHP, he'd probably still be on the MLB team, as they really need to get better against LHP.

I like Pederson, but the Brewers big weakness is facing off against LHP, and Pederson doesn't help them there. Not against looking at the price tag, but he wouldn't be my first choice.

Well, 102 games into the season they're in first place even though they've sustained a lot of injuries, so I'd say that would list them as "contenders." We continually get proof, including Atlanta last year, that in the playoffs it's the team that gets hot at the right time that wins it all. I would be surprised if we get through trade deadline without doing something, but even if we stand pat, we have a team that could beat any other team in any given series, and absolutely could "get hot at the right time" and win it all. It would certainly be surprising if Hader were traded. The only way it happens is if they receive an offer that is so crazy they can't turn it down.

Yes, I mentioned elsewhere that my son showed me a site which showed that most of Melvin's trades sent a lot more WAR away than they brought back, while most of Stearns' trades brought more WAR in then they sent away. Melvin helped get us out of the gutter, but his trades nearly sent us back. Things looked pretty bleak with a bunch of old, expensive guys who weren't winning baseball games. We got very fortunate that Gomez and Lucroy put up seasons that got them MVP votes just before we traded them and then they both hit cliffs right after they were traded. Those two trades rebuilt the team a lot quicker than it otherwise could have been. Attanasio seemed to have an on-air epiphany watching him through the 2014 collapse and into the bad start to 2015 leading to his hiring of Stearns. You could hear in Melvin's interviews that agents had started going over his head and Attanasio was making a lot of the moves, and you could here from Attanasio's frustration that he was starting to understand that he had been doing things wrong and needed to go a different direction. Then he hired Counell and Stearns, we started hearing "continually competitive" and after a short "retooling" have been in the playoffs every single year, with almost all of our trades bringing back a lot of "team control" and getting more WAR than we've given away. Every move adds more value to the team than it gives up. That's why I've said that if we trade for Soto, it would be for 1.5 seasons, and Ohtani would be just for the end of this year. There is no doubt that we would give up more future WAR from the prospects we'd trade than we'd get for 1.5 years of Soto or 1/2 a year of Ohtani, so if we did it, it'd be as a short-term rental before turning around and trading them away to "re-stock the farm." I don't think it will happen for a number of reasons. It would go against what the "continually competitive" methodology the team has been doing since Stearns came on board, and the only reason it's even worth considering is because Ohtani and Soto are so good. They're the type of player that might get Attanasio salivating enough that the "fan" in him once again overtakes the "businessman" and he green-lights losing money for a couple of years because he thinks he has a World Series winner.

Brock, I think that's a good write-up, although there is of course some risk to the Brewers. He could get injured tomorrow and they would still have to pay him around $20M. I look at these signings like I look at insurance. They transfer risk from one party to another. Players who accept them know that they could get hurt or underperform, so they're willing to "pay a premium" for the insurance. This "premium" is the amount they would have been paid if they performed well minus the amount they are actually paid. The closer a player is to free agency, the less risk they have, so the premium gets smaller and smaller. That's why a team like the Brewers has to sign extensions to players when they're still in their pre-arby years. Once they hit arby (A) the ones worth signing are making millions so they aren't as willing to sign, and (B) they have to pay nearly Free Agent market price, which is generally too much for the Brewers to afford. As I said earlier, if I were a small-market GM, I'd offer extensions like this to every promising rookie that came up. Most will decline them, so you take them year-to-year and trade them some time in their arby years. Of those who accept, some will falter, but the cost is sustainable even for a small market club, but the ones who accept will be nice cornerstones for your "team core" for a long time.

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

His mechanics.

OPS is a good "generic" stat to get a quick overview of how a hitter is doing. From the day I first saw it, I figured that its biggest flaw is that it overvalues SLG relative to OBP when OBP is more important than SLG. My preferred "look at one thing only" stat would be wRC+ or wOBA. I generally use wRC+ because it's based on 100 as "league average," so it's really easy to use. I believe that those who say "batting average doesn't matter" are fooling themselves. Batting average is the biggest and most important component of OBP, and OBP is about the most important thing in baseball. Of course batting average is important. It is extremely important. It just doesn't tell the whole story. For that, use wRC+. However, any stat has to be taken with a big grain of salt when the sample size is too small. That applies to OPS, OBP, and yes, to K rate. I understand that Hiura rightfully has a hill to climb this year to earn playing time, and I think there is a good chance that he will just never be a good enough hitter to earn full-time duty. When people say his numbers are inflated due to unsustainable things like BABIP and HR rate, they're right. My biggest complaint this year was that he made some adjustments, looked like a different player than he was in 2020 & 2021, was hitting the ball hard against right-handed pitchers, and the Brewers only started him against lefties. Most of his PAs against righties came against relievers, and even though he rarely got a chance to face them, he still did pretty well against them. He did strike out too much, but I'd bet that if the only lefty someone faced was Hader, his strikeout rates would be absurdly high as well. I know that his numbers weren't going to be as good as the were (he had a wRC+ vs RHP of 244 at one point!) but I thought he should play to see what was real and what was not. Hiura may indeed strike out too much to ever be effective, but I just wanted to see him get more PAs vs RHP when he was hot. Especially considering that at the time McCutchen was in a woefully bad slump and probably could've used a few days off. That didn't happen, and if Hiura isn't going to get a shot when he has a 244 wRC+ and his "competition" is 0-for-May, he's probably never going to get a shot. That's why I think that everyone involved will be best served if Hiura is traded in the next few days for someone that will help the Brewers. The Brewers will get someone they'll use, and Hiura can "sink or swim" elsewhere. As to "batting order doesn't matter," that has equal credibility with "batting average doesn't matter," but this post is already too long.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez. I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.