monty57

I guess it's "broken" if you feel that a team should be guaranteed six years of "control" over every player. In the current system, most players are seriously underpaid for the first three years. The arbitration process still seriously underpays good players, while it creates a scenario where below-average-to-average players may be overpaid. If the team thinks they are going to be overpaid, then the team has the option to not offer arbitration, allowing the player to test the market as a free agent. The team isn't obliged to offer arbitration, they just lose "control" of the player if they choose not to offer arbitration. I don't hate this set-up, and I am glad that the Brewers have a management team in place that looks at players objectively and is willing to cut ties with players who will be overpaid in arbitration. I do agree that the evaluation system used by the arbitrators is archaic. Every team in baseball has adapted their evaluation systems, and it's well past time the MLB does the same in the arbitration process.

"Baseball inflation" will likely be contained to the rise in the luxury tax threshold. With that threshold essentially becoming a "soft" salary cap, any additional dollars that go to the top-end guys just means there will be less money to go to all of the other players. I don't know the formula for how the cap is set, but it looks like the average increase since inception in 2003 is around 4%, but in recent years has been roughly 1% annual increases. I'd guess the formula has something to do with average MLB payroll, and as the penalties have stiffened, less teams have went over the cap, effectively decreasing the rate of increase. I'd guess that this will be a major talking point in the next CBA discussions, but as it stands the aggregate increase in MLB payrolls looks to be slowing dramatically. This has helped teams like the Brewers, while the Red Sox just traded their best player and the Cubs are at a standstill.

With the Peralta extension, I'd guess that Stearns is also approaching some others, notably Hiura and Urias, and possibly guys like Burnes and Narvaez. As long as he can maintain a solid core, he can build around that core. Extending good players while they're young helps keep your core intact. Stearns showed this off-season that you can turn over a good portion of your roster in one off-season. Some of these replacements (Narvaez, Urias, Lauer) are longer-term pieces who could be "core" guys going forward, while others are 1- or 2-year commitments to fill in holes until longer-term pieces can be found. If Urias can get on base like he did in the minors, he, Yelich, and Hiura should be a strong top of the order for a long time. My one concern is that we don't have a strong farm. We need to be able to keep quite a few pre-arby guys on the roster to keep payroll down so we can afford some expensive contracts. Even if these are only bullpen arms and bench guys, paying some of your 26 guys $550k really brings the average price-per-player down.

All contracts are different, but I think it's fair to compare this extension with Braun's second extension. In both cases we had an MVP-caliber player locked up for a team-friendly rate for a few seasons through their prime years who was extended to a "closer to market value" rate for their post-prime years going into their mid-30's. Both were "face of the franchise," potential Hall of Famers when signed. This deal will likely buy us a couple of extra good years beyond what we already had, and some years where we're overpaying for a guy who is still a decent player, but not worth what he's getting. The Brewers may not get the "WAR value" back from the dollars they're spending, but this is a franchise that has only had two really good players (Yount & Molitor) spend most of their career in a Brewer uniform. Braun is the third player who really deserves to have his number retired, as the rest of the numbers (of course excluding Jackie Robinson & Uke) only played a short time in Milwaukee. Like Braun, even though we will have years at the end of the deal where we may wish we could get rid of the contract, if we're going to overpay for an aging player, I'd rather it be one who spent most (or all) of his career with the Brewers. Here's to being able to watch what I hope is a Hall of Fame career spent mostly in Milwaukee.

I just think they were trying to get under the luxury tax level and were happy to get something back. This doesn't mean that they thought Rengifo was equal in value to what they were giving up, or that he was someone they were really going after, just that the move would cut the payroll enough to get them below the luxury tax. I believe that if the Brewers (or most other teams) are willing to pick up the extra salary, they could work a deal with the Dodgers where they would get more talent than they are giving up.

That freak injury could have legitimately cost him generations-changing money And cost the Brewers a playoff spot in 2017, and who knows, maybe a World Series in 2018. We definitely could have used an "ace" the past couple of years.

I'm probably not the only Brewer fan whose opinion on the NL adopting the DH changed after the injuries to our pitching staff while hitting/base-running in the 2017 season. Best of luck to Nelson. I would've liked to have seen how good he could have been if not for a freak injury on the base-paths.

I agree that this means the team thinks he will be a starter, which is great. It also means that any time spent in the 'pen will not be "wasting" his service time, as he is now going to be paid the same whether he's in the pen or the rotation, and whether he's in the majors or minors. If the Brewers really think they can develop starters better by first putting them in the pen, then they can now put their money where their mouth is.

Yes, this is very much like insurance. The risk is being transferred from the player to the team, so the amount the team saves (relative to what they may have paid if he hits full potential) is kind of a premium paid by the player for the chance that he flames out or gets injured.

I always feel that if you are going to extend guys, do it early. The team takes the risk of the player gets hurt or under-performs, but taking on that risk allows them to get the deal done for a discount. By the time players get to their arby years, the discount often isn't worth the added risk. Good for the Brewers and good for Peralta. I hope this means he will get a chance to show us what he can do in the rotation. If he and Burnes can pan out, that will help the Brewers a lot going forward.

That's pretty negative. They are "gambling" that the 26 men they put on the field for the opening day roster, plus the depth they have in the minors will keep them in the race until they decide at the trade deadline if they should invest more capital for a mid-season upgrade somewhere. But yes, the third base platoon is part of the overall plan. I'd love to have the resources to buy a star at every position, but I think that the platoon mixes they've brought together should give us a fairly solid line-up top-to-bottom whether we're facing a lefty or a righty.

He's very very valuable with his odd style going through the lineup 1 time. He's a 2+ IP reliever. Honestly, if they go with Houser and Peralta in the rotation I almost expect the piggy back idea that we've never seen to come into play. Woodruff Anderson Lindblom treated normally. Houser 4-5 /Suter 2-3 Peralta 4-5 /Lauer 2-3 Leaves Hader Phelps Claudio Black and a random until Knebel is back. Lauer and Suter can pitch 1 IP days here and there behind the starter 1-2-3. But you can toggle them so that they line up for a longer stint with Houser and Peralta. I honestly don't know why more teams don't just schedule it this way. 3 IP x 32 (160/5) = 96 innings in a year. You give Suter and Lauer 3 innings every 5 starts and they carry a lot of weight in the pen without being over taxed. It'd save your pen a lot of wear and tear. Houser/Lauer Peralta/Suter styles are about as opposite as they get. I think "piggy-backing" may be a bit too rigid, but with several multiple-inning guys in the pen, the Brewers have done a variation of this. Before Hader was forced into the closer role, he could pitch around every third day. Add guys like Suter and Guerra in the mix, and the team had a multiple-inning guy for every day if they needed one. Some days a pitcher is doing well, and some days you are up or down a lot of runs, so keeping flexibility seems to make more sense than the rigid schedule. It'd be wonderful to have five guys that could go 6+ innings regularly, but if that's not a possibility, then it makes sense to keep a few guys in the pen who can go multiple innings. Hader gets all the glory, but he can't go every day, so a guy like Suter is very valuable to the team. Also shows why losing Knebel along with Jeffress' implosion really hurt the team last year.

Clancy, I love that you stick to your convictions, but by now even you have to know that Braun is never going to play 3B at the MLB level again.

Gamel seems like a good fit for the extra roster spot. He can play all three OF positions fairly well so he can sub in on defense, he can make contract if used in a pinch hit situation, and he could even pinch run if needed. Unless we have someone else we really need to give that spot to, Gamel is more valuable to the Brewers as the "26th man" than anything they'd get in trade for him at this point. We have some injury-prone OFs, so I'd guess that Gamel will get a decent amount of playing time even as the 5th outfielder, especially if Braun plays a lot of 1B.

His career ERA is 4.05 in 997.1 career innings, mainly pitching in the AL facing a DH and battling a lot of injuries in his career. It's possible that he will bomb, but you certainly can't "take it to the bank" that he will be significantly worse than he historically has been.

ok, doubleheaders? how many of those will we play in 2020? It seems like you are backtracking a bit here... I’m not backtracking just clarifying my original point since I it was fairly broad. And doubleheader was more of an example than the end all be all. Doubleheaders, night/afternoon games, longer road trips, etc... Basically anytime when the turnaround is minimal and players might benefit from a little time off. I believe Keston will be our second best offensive producer in 2020 so I’m not looking to bench him because he’s a poor defender. The bat will play. It just might not always play nine innings if we have a lead late in games.

Braun has been a 330 obp guy for the last 3 years. Smoak hit 200 and got on base as much. If you aren't putting up north of 350 obp you shouldn't be in front of Yelich. I want Cain in the lead off spot vs LHP and Holt at lead off vs RHP. Yelich 2 and start the parade of Hiura Braun Garcia Smoak Narvaez depending on the matchup. Only time I'd even consider Braun ahead of Yelich is vs LHP. Last year, only 50 players in baseball had an OBP .350 or higher, so less than two on each team. The Brewers had two, Yelich (who can't bat ahead of himself) and Grandal who is no longer on the team. The third highest OBP on the team went to Braun at .343. Cain regaining his form will be the best thing for the offense this season. If that doesn't happen, Braun wouldn't be the worst option for leadoff, nor would a platoon such as the one you mentioned.

The only thing A Swing and A Drive is a lock for is whining about Brett Anderson. Add me to the list whining about Brett Anderson. This is the one move that had me really scratching my head this offseason. My guess on what Stearns liked when he signed him is that 2019 was the first time he started throwing a cutter. He threw is 13.8% of the time, and it graded out as a positive pitch for him. He threw less sliders, which graded out as a negative pitch the last couple of seasons, and he had a decent season. I think Stearns sees him as another Miley-type project. Increase his cutter usage and see if he can break out.

I don't want to say something can't be done, but I find it hard to believe that "Milwaukee Brewers" and "second largest contract in the history of baseball" will ever be mentioned in the same headline unless is it something like "After declining their offer and electing free agency, former Milwaukee Brewer {insert player name} signs second largest contract in the history of baseball with {insert large market team here}" The Brewers can compete when they have good players signed to below market value deals. I don't think they would have a big chance of success paying someone in their 30's around 25% of their team payroll. Braun was once an MVP-caliber player, and now most people can't wait for his contract to be gone. This year (2020) will be Yelich's age 28 season. We have him under contract through his age 30 season, which is right around the beginning of the "decline phase" of a player's career. Enjoy his prime and let someone else overpay for his decline. Paying him $5M/year for the four years after that makes it even worse, as that money won't be able to be used to help the team win in 2028-2031. Therefore, that extension may help the Brewers for a while, but has the potential to hurt the franchise for a long time. We've really been lucky that Braun is still as productive as he is. If we sign Yelich to a big extension with deferred money and he happens to be one of those guys who doesn't age well, the deal could hurt the franchise for nearly a decade.

"Best hitter" on one team is different than "best hitter" on another, and some teams have more overall talent than others, so I think where to bat your "best hitter" depends on the make-up of your team. The most important thing for me is that I like high-OBP guys at the top of the lineup. Others have mentioned that Cain's offensive drop-off last year (.395 OBP down to .325) really hurt the team, so the team should get a big boost if their lead-off hitter can get on base. Whether Cain "finds it" offensively, Braun becomes the leadoff man, or if we use a platoon from our middle-infield mix, we need to get better OBP from lead-off. After that, I'd put Hiura and Yelich in the 2 & 3 spots in either order. I'd probably prefer Hiura 2, Yelich 3, but I'm not too concerned either way. We are going to have so many platoons and match-ups, it's hard to determine what the "normal" lineup is. As long as Hiura and Yelich are near the top of it, the rest will be a day-to-day thing.

As long as Stearns is able to add a few good, "controlled" players every season, like he did this year with Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer, and does not get himself bogged down with "albatross" contracts, then I don't see that we will have to go into a full-scale rebuild. I would guess that Yelich, Hader, and any other future star players who will demand enormous contracts, will get traded prior to becoming free agents. The return on Yelich will be huge, and mostly (or totally) young and controlled. If we trade him after next season, the only guys from our current roster that wouldn't still be controlled (going into 2022) are Holt, Knebel, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, Pina, Claudio, Phelps, Gyorko, and Braun. Basically, a bunch of the "filler" we brought on this year plus Braun. Since Stearns was able to find these guys this year, then it's likely that he will be able to find similar guys in future years. In other words, without Yelich, we will still have a lot of talent. If we trade him to add more young talent to that core, then we should be fine. Losing Yelich for nothing would cost us wins in the future. If we can get a bunch of young, controlled talent back in trade, some of those guys will become core pieces going forward. If we could get someone like the Red Sox got in Verdugo and some other good, young talent to stock the minors, we could still remain competitive as long as some of our young guys (Hiura, Urias, etc) continue to progress and Stearns adds a few more young pieces next offseason and can continue to find 1-2 year players like Garcia, Holt, Anderson, Sogard, etc to fill in the roster holes. I really hope we don't play for a "Yelich window" that would require a multi-year tear-down and rebuild. I think Stearns is trying to build a team that can compete year-in and year-out. Sometimes that means trading away players who have been good for us for a few seasons for a group of players we hope will be good for us for the next few years. It's easy to get attached to players, especially good players. Signing Yelich to a huge deal through his 30's would cripple the franchise, and riding him out to the end of his contract would waste the chance to stock up on a boatload of young talent that we will need to remain competitive going forward.

I agree Hiura will be an "everyday" player, but in a small sample of MLB PAs, he's been much better vs RHP. Anyone know how he did in the minors vs LHP? Was last year just a small sample anomaly, or should he sit sometimes against lefties?

By definition, it is considered a "cut" if it is less than last year, which it is. I agree with you that we shouldn't have expected to retain the higher payroll level, nor should we have expected to retain Moose or Grandal. However, if the Brewers are spending less this year than we spent last year, then they have cut payroll. I doubt that Attanasio cares that fans are a little concerned about the lowered payroll this year. I think he's happy that he has a strong fanbase that buys 2-3 million tickets a year and talk about the Brewers in the offseason (during Packer season). I think he understands that winning helps keep this going, so I doubt he regrets doing something that helped the Brewers make the playoffs for the second straight year. That may not seem like much, but it's not common in Brewer history, so we're currently living through one of the most successful stints in franchise history, and I'm sure he likes that. I think that Attanasio used to be a bit more of a "hands on" owner, who now realizes that he needs to listen to the people he's paying to make those decisions. I think now that if Stearns believes adding a contract will help, Attanasio has shown willingness to do so, and now that Stearns seems to think that he can get the same (or more) value without spending as much money, that Attanasio is right there with him. You always wish for a little more, but I generally like the way the team is built this year, and I'm happy that they have some wiggle room in the budget. Some team will be looking to dump some salary at the trade deadline, so if the Brewers are in the race, they should be able to pick up a player "for nothing" by simply taking on the remainder of the contract. That could be what helps push us into the playoffs.

I think Gamel will get the majority of his starts in CF on west coast toad trips since the parks are more spacious. He will also get some play as a late inning defensive replacement and some burn when players are dealing with injuries. I still see him winding up with 200+ at-bats if everything goes right and roughly 350 if the injury bug hits our OFs hard. I'm sure players will feel different, but I don't really care about how many PAs guys see. If we face a lot of righties in a row, certain players will sit a lot, and then they'll start a few games in a row when we face lefties. Even Braun shouldn't be immune to that this year. He's getting paid a lot, but if it makes more sense to start Garcia/Cain/Yelich in the OF and Smoak at 1B, then Braun should be sitting. A lot of guys on this roster will be sitting more than they're used to. As for Gamel, if he makes the 26-man roster, he should expect to sit most days.

I think Gamel will get the majority of his starts in CF on west coast toad trips since the parks are more spacious. He will also get some play as a late inning defensive replacement and some burn when players are dealing with injuries. I still see him winding up with 200+ at-bats if everything goes right and roughly 350 if the injury bug hits our OFs hard. I'm sure players will feel different, but I don't really care about how many PAs guys see. If we face a lot of righties in a row, certain players will sit a lot, and then they'll start a few games in a row when we face lefties. Even Braun shouldn't be immune to that this year. He's getting paid a lot, but if it makes more sense to start Garcia/Cain/Yelich in the OF and Smoak at 1B, then Braun should be sitting. A lot of guys on this roster will be sitting more than they're used to. As for Gamel, if he makes the 26-man roster, he should expect to sit most days.