monty57

If MLBtraderumors is accurate with their projections, that could get us La Stella (2 years/$14M) and Charlie Morton (1 year/$8M). As Brewers Numbers has said, we have some "dead money" to account for, so I'd be happy with us being able to land La Stella to shore up our biggest hole. Once again, this makes me think that the Brewers are going to have to make a decision on Hader soon. Trade him and you have some additional players and more money to spend. Don't trade him, and your bullpen is set but you don't have much to spend elsewhere. Charlie Morton got $15M from the Braves. Oops. Swap that out with Carlos Santana for 1 year/$6M if we get the DH :-)

I think the logic is that if the Brewers took someone who is eligible for the draft, then they could lose him in the draft. If they wait until after the draft, they'll know if he's gone, and they can have him in the organization and not need to add him to the 40-man until next offseason.

Depends...one big thing is how much he is facing LHP. The more he doesn't face LHP the more you will inflate his numbers to look good. He was absolutely atrocious against LHP in 2019 and in 2020 he only faced them 12 times. Which speaking of that I keep seeing his comparison to "league average". Are you really league average if you are a platoon player and are hanging around league average stats? Seems like that would actually be below average. The other thing is he doesn't really have much of a track record. His numbers in 2019 are only good because he posted a 1.195 OPS in April, outside of that his was a lot more human. In the second half of 2019 he barely posted a .600 OPS and obviously was off to a terrible start in 2020 before his hot streak. (He did hold his own in May/June/July of 2019...but merely average at best) Real streaky so far in his career, which despite a lot of seasons isn't a huge sample size of time outside of 2019. Left-handed hitters who don't do well against left-handed pitching is not that uncommon. Thankfully, most pitchers are right-handed, and for only $1.4M we can afford a right-handed bench bat to play when a lefty is on the mound. That's far from a unique situation. You are correct that he doesn't have a long MLB track record. With that knowledge, how can you be sure that he'll "come crashing back down to reality and be gone by June?" He might hit well, he might not. That's why he's a complementary player we have for $1.4M. It's probably not correct to assume that his bat will be great or horrible over the next 162 games. I'm assuming he'll be around a "league average" 1B/DH bat with below average defense at 1B, since that's what he's done so far. I'm not thrilled at the idea of seeing his defense at 1B for a season, especially when he's paired with Hiura's defense on the right side of the infield. We still don't know about the DH in the NL, and I'm willing to bet Stearns has more insight into what's happening there than anyone on this site. In their annual "top 50 FAs," MLBtraderumors has Carlos Santana going to the Brewers for $6M. Because we now have some positions filled fairly cheaply (including Vogelbach), that's still an option. So is someone like La Stella, where the assumption is 2 years/$14M. I don't know how much money the Brewers have to spend, but by making these cheap signings, we might be able to upgrade elsewhere. Nothing's done in a vacuum.

But that's not at all what they're doing. They have "core" players in guys like Yelich, Hiura, Burnes, Cain, and Woodruff. We don't have the funds to fill the roster with star players, so we need other guys to fill out the roster. If we can get league average out of these guys without spending too much money, that's probably the best we can hope for. I'd love it if we had more players coming up from the farm to fill more holes, but we've been trading prospects to help the MLB team over the past few years. After a while that comes back and bites you. Without league minimum guys coming from the farm, you need to pay more for all the guys, including the "filler" players. We now have C, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF, RF covered, so hopefully by saving some money in the deals made yesterday, we can find another "core player," or at least an above average guy, to play 3B. Problem is one of those core players was horrendous last year (Hiura) and the other one probably got his AARP card in the mail while he didn't play this year. It would also help if Vogelbach was average...but he is really far from it. You hope his bat is average, but playing the field he is definitely not an average player. Don't even give get me started about RF and SS. Not sure if I would call the offseason a massive failure if we fill up the offense with similar garbage we had in 2020 because of the disastrous offseason/financials...but I could certainly see why someone would be unhappy with Vogelbach getting 500+ ABs next year...it probably is not a good sign to the overall offenses success. I guess I don't get where you're going. You said "You could make the most +value roster in MLB and win 60 games...is that what we want? Probably not." and I said that wasn't what we were doing. That many of our players underperformed offensively last year isn't because they were all inexpensive "value finds." Our biggest underperformer was probably Yelich, and Stearns had just signed him to one of the most expensive contracts in sports history. And yes, Cain is old, but he was our most expensive free agent signing ever, so he wasn't a "value player." You don't like Garcia? He wasn't a value signing, we outbid everyone for him. Everyone knows that we need guys like Yelich and Hiura to get back to where they were or it could be another rough season for the offense. We underperformed expectations at almost every position. That can't be fixed by simply spending money on free agents. We all have to hope that players have "positive regression" and play like they're capable of. Vogelbach is "filler." He's probably average at DH, and slightly below average at 1B due to poor defense. As I've said repeatedly, my hope is that by getting someone who is around average for "only" $1.4M, that could save some money so that they can sign a good third baseman. If they can sign someone like La Stella because they didn't overspend on a first baseman, I'll be okay with it. Bottom line is, we need "cheap" players to allow us to afford the higher priced guys like Yelich, Cain, and Garcia. If they don't hold their weight, and we expect our "filler" players to carry the team, we're going to be in trouble.

If MLBtraderumors is accurate with their projections, that could get us La Stella (2 years/$14M) and Charlie Morton (1 year/$8M). As Brewers Numbers has said, we have some "dead money" to account for, so I'd be happy with us being able to land La Stella to shore up our biggest hole. Once again, this makes me think that the Brewers are going to have to make a decision on Hader soon. Trade him and you have some additional players and more money to spend. Don't trade him, and your bullpen is set but you don't have much to spend elsewhere.

I mean, he wasn't. As you note, lots of potential explanations. But he wasn't. And he wasn't anything beyond slightly above average in 2018 either, before the TJ surgery. Just pointing out the statistical facts. You can interpret them however you'd like, obviously. I think what you're choosing to focus on is the loss of a guy that used to be good because of financial constraints, while not acknowledging that A)it is VERY possible that Knebel won't be worth close to $5 million next year, and B)that there's also a good possibility that, though you are correct that the loss of his talent has made the bullpen less talented overall at this moment in time, the off season isn't over and they made be able to replace or exceed said talent level in a more cost-effective way. Other than spiking his HR/FB rate to 20.6% (from 9.5%), his 2018 numbers are as good or better than 2017: 2017 IP 76, K/9 14.92, BB/9 4.74, GB% 38.3, ERA 1.78, FIP 2.53, xFIP 2.97 2018 IP 55.1, K/9 14.31, BB/9 3.58, GB% 47.7, ERA 3.58, FIP 3.03, xFIP 2.40 He struck out about as many, walked a lot less, and induced more ground balls. If you normalize the HR rate (xFIP) he was better. Of course, he did give up the homers, but he pitched well in 2018. He didn't get a normal rehab due to this goofy year and minor league baseball being cancelled, but he's right at the point where he should be back to full strength. He's 29, so there's not really any reason to think that he couldn't be just as good as he was before the surgery. But we don't know, so there's risk. It sucks that the MLB willfully gives bigger markets an advantage over smaller markets, and it sucks that the COVID-induced payroll cuts are happening. I would like for the Brewers to be able to take the risk on Knebel, but I understand why they can't. Having him back at full strength would really ease the pain of trading away Hader. But, it's done. I hope they use the money saved to get a good 3B, and I hope the young relievers we have step up so we still have a solid 'pen.

Yeah, I don't see any reason the Brewers would have to go out and sign a "high priced" veteran for the pen. That's one place the farm should have plenty of talent. If they were going to spend on pitching, it would probably be on a reliable starter, which would push Houser or Lindblom to the 'pen, strengthening it further.

In his lone full season he posted a 111 wRC+ & 1.6 WAR. If he can approximate those numbers in 2021 it would be perfectly cromulent production for 1.4 million dollars. Sure, you could look at it that way. Maybe not the most accurate if you want to make the postseason though. We aren't going to get very far if we are loading up the roster with guys 'worth' their salary, but are 1.5 WAR (or worse) players and absolutely miserable defensively. I don't think Jack thinks the price is bad, but that the player isn't really that good...especially at 500+ ABs. You could make the most +value roster in MLB and win 60 games...is that what we want? Probably not. But that's not at all what they're doing. They have "core" players in guys like Yelich, Hiura, Burnes, Cain, and Woodruff. We don't have the funds to fill the roster with star players, so we need other guys to fill out the roster. If we can get league average out of these guys without spending too much money, that's probably the best we can hope for. I'd love it if we had more players coming up from the farm to fill more holes, but we've been trading prospects to help the MLB team over the past few years. After a while that comes back and bites you. Without league minimum guys coming from the farm, you need to pay more for all the guys, including the "filler" players. We now have C, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, CF, RF covered, so hopefully by saving some money in the deals made yesterday, we can find another "core player," or at least an above average guy, to play 3B.

Agree. This isn't like the Cubs' situation with Bryant last year, when no one knew how many years of service he had left. Teams might actually prefer trading for Hader before his contract is settled, as they may be looking at doing a multi-year deal with him. With the deals they struck yesterday, I'd guess that the Hader situation is the next thing on the agenda. What they decide to do with him somewhat dictates how they're going to address their other needs.

Yeah, it stinks to lose Knebel right when he may be getting back to full strength, but it's a risk the Brewers can't take this offseason. I hope they're able to get a young player with some upside back, but I'm not really expecting too much. I also hope that the money saved is used to fill a hole elsewhere.

He's not the worst defensive 1B, but his offense hasn't shown to be good enough to make up for the defensive shortcomings. Basically, his negative defense negates his positive offense. As a 1B, he's "passable," but won't add a lot of wins over the course of a season. My hope is that by finding a 1B/DH for only $1.4M (along with a SS for $2M), they will have some resources to acquire a solid 3B. We all expect a lowered payroll this year, and 3B is their area of greatest need, so I'll take "passable" at 1B if it gets us a "core player" at 3B. With the limited payroll, we're going to have guys who are league average or below. If we're going to win in 2021, it's because guys like Yelich, Hiura, Narvaez, Cain, and Garcia remember how to hit, while our pitching remains strong. Today's signings (Vogelbach, Arcia, Pina) are guys who you hope can get you league average play for a relatively cheap cost.

It's probably because of players like Segura and Gennett, but I've always figured that we'd give up on Arcia and he'd immediately become an All-Star with his new team. I think he was called up way before he was ready when Villar was doing fine at SS, and he's never fully put it together. I hope that he's finally starting to click and can be a decent player. If not, he's not costing too much and we can look to fill shortstop later. Right now, we have bigger holes to fill.

Except Maile's offensive "lightning" would be more like a static electric shock from someone shuffling their feet on the carpet.

I'll backtrack on this a little, only because Hiura is so bad defensively. If there is a DH in the NL, Vogelbach could be a relatively cheap option to play first, allowing Hiura to DH, with Urias moving to 2B. The money saved by going with Vogelbach at first might help them find a decent third baseman. However, if there is no DH, a right side of the infield with Hiura at 2B and Vogelbach at 1B would be pretty awful defensively.

Piña and Nottingham are both out of minor league options. So if they were to keep Piña and Narvaez both they would either need to keep 3 catchers on the roster, DFA/trade Nottingham, or keep Narvaez in the minors unless there was an injury to Piña/Nottingham. So this is a deal to have one catcher on the roster with minor league options remaining basically. They were never going to keep all three of the current catchers for the abovementioned reason of options (And probably money too). So it's not about "better", it's about having a 3rd catcher that they could send back down after stepping in for injuries. If Freitas or Piña (or Nottingham) were the 3rd catcher on a minor league deal, Brewers would risk losing them on waivers (or electing free agency, if they had been outrighted before) when they were sent down after their stint in the majors. And of course Nottingham would need to pass through waivers to even be possible to have in the minors to start the year. That's my take on it anyway. I would expect Narvaez and Nottingham to start the season on the major league roster, with Maile the backup in AAA. Some teams like to run 3 catchers, Brewers under the Stearns/CC era don't seem to be one of them. Another possibility is that it is Narvaez + Piña or Narvaez + Maile on the major league roster, and using Nottingham for a trade, but I think that's less likely. Good post. I'd guess Pina will be traded, and some team is always looking for a solid backup, so they should be able to find a trading partner pretty easily. Maile can back up Feliciano in AAA. Maybe he can mentor him a bit, and be a guy they can bring up in case of injury that can at least play solid defense.

I'd keep Narvaez if one of the two is non-tendered. I don't know if I necessarily agree with the argument for non-tendering Knebel: "If the Brewers are listening to offers for Josh Hader, then they're likely non-tendering Knebel at about the same price." If the Brewers think that Knebel can be something like the pitcher that he once was, having him on the roster could be the reason that they are able to trade Hader.

But everything is relative. If there is a DH, someone will be the DH, so that player will get the "negative positional adjustment." The goal would be to make the whole team better, not specifically one player. As I mentioned in my last post, Vogelbach is better at 1B than Hiura is at 2B, so if the option is for one of them to get the majority of reps at DH, I choose Hiura. Your last sentence points to one option, but if they can have a regular DH who can mash, while allowing a semi-competent defender to play the field, that makes a lot of sense. Urias was seen as a plus defender at 2B. We could have good defense up the middle with Arcia at SS, Urias at 2B and Cain in CF. Plus, as MrTPlush said, "why let the defense go to his head?" Hiura can focus on hitting, and Urias is a natural 2B, and switching positions may have effected him as well. But first, we need to find a real third baseman. Until we get that, the point is moot.

I'd like to put a positive spin on Hiura's defense, but I can't. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=3_30 Out of 88 players who have a minimum of 200 innings at 2B in 2019-2020, Hiura is by far the worst defender. His defensive rating on Fangraphs is -10.4. The next worst is Ryan McMahon at -4.8 and Jose Altuve at -4.7. Vogelbach is #24 out of 73 qualified 1B in the same time frame. He's not a great answer, but he's a much better defender at his position than Hiura. If we can find a solid 3b, I think we should move Urias to 2b and use Hiura as our main DH.

There probably won't be a lot of money available this offseason, so most of the improvement has to come internally or via trade. They spend a large chunk of their payroll on their outfield ($41.75M), so the offense has to start there. Cain will hopefully be back, so they need a good season from him, and they need Yelich and Garcia to hit much better than they did in 2020. For the infield, I don't see any "outside help" coming for 2B, SS or C. We need to see improvement from Hiura and Narvaez (assuming they hold onto him), and they will need to decide what to do with SS between Arcia and Urias. One should probably start at SS, and the other should be dangled in trade. The corner IF positions are really the area Stearns needs to focus on. The Brewers don't have a strong farm, so any trade chips they're willing to use need to go to strengthen 1B and/or 3B. So, most of our offense underperformed in 2020, and our biggest hope is that we see a "positive regression" from the guys we already have. Let's face it, if Yelich "lost it," we're going to be hurting for a long time. The good thing is that track records point in the Brewers' favor, and I think we should get much better results from most of these guys. That said, nabbing a young, talented 3B in trade would sure be nice.

Agree. I think posters here are overvaluing what Hader is worth. Exciting as he is, relievers/closers just aren't worth as much as starters and everyday position players. There is a good chance that he gets traded, and if so he'll bring back a decent return. I just think some people here will be disappointed at what we get back.

So you have the Brewers losing Hader, Turang, and Houser PLUS adding $41M to the payroll? I'd guess that if they wanted Snell, it would take at least that. I figure it would probably be Williams instead of Hader. I don't get how you see them adding $41M to payroll. Snell will make $11.1M this year, and if they did this trade, Hader's salary would be off the books, so they'd only add something like $5M to payroll.

Snell has three relatively inexpensive ($11.1M, $13.1M, $16M) years of control. Hader is not going to be close to enough to bring Snell back. Plus, Hader doesn't seem like the guy the Rays would target. If they were looking for an MLB piece back, Hiura would be around the right value, or they could look at a package of Williams along with something like Turang or Lutz and another prospect in the Small/Ashby range. I don't think we'll trade Hiura with our offensive struggles, so the latter seems more realistic.

LOL, we're bored. I think the Cubs had a real chance to build a dynasty, and instead they took the "go all in" route. I live in Illinois, so I have a lot of friends who are Cub fans. Most of them feel that getting one World Series win makes it worth it. I've just never been one who likes to throw away the future for today, and I think the Cubs are in a situation similar to the Brewers post-2011. A big difference is that they have a lot more money to work with, so they can afford to make a few mistakes. I personally hope they keep "trying to win," and it leads them into a long period of mediocrity. Baez is entering his final year of arby. Last year he was supposed to make $10M. If they sign him to a major extension, they're getting the same player for 2x-3x the salary. They don't improve, they just get more expensive, so they don't have as much money to pay the rest of the team. So, if they extend two of the five "core" players they're losing, they'll be spending around the same amount of money for 40% of the production. I don't see how they'll make up for losing all that production when I don't believe that they have any upcoming stars sitting in the upper minors ready to take over. They really have to hope that they can find someone to give them good, young MLB-ready talent for some of the guys they're set to lose. Since good, young talent would seemingly be at a premium as teams worry about how COVID will affect the future, and with most of the guys the Cubs would likely be willing to trade coming off of poor seasons, that could be a hard task.

The Cubs are going to resign two of their free agents and one of those will not be Bryant if he had any trade value at all he would be traded this off season. I believe the Cubs will resign Rizzo and Baez and I wouldn't be surprised to see a contract extension for Baez soon. The Cubs real problem is the bullpen and starting pitching and I don't think they will go out and spend on Bauer and will instead go bargain bin shopping for players like Gausman. I believe the Cubs could have down years from 2022-2023 and then be back again in 2024 and if that is their plan then extending Baez and Schwarber makes more sense. Each would be in their mid 30's by that time and if they drafted well and spend well in the international free agents they should have a good team by 2024 again. I don't see the Cubs being down for more than 2-years unless they draft horribly or the international free agents they spend on are busts. I agree Bryant isn't getting extended. MLBTraderumors even hinted that he may get non-tendered rather than pay him the $20M or so he'll get in arby. Again, part of the "mess" Hoyer will have to deal with rather than Epstein making that unpopular decision. Imagine how the radio talk shows and the "casual fans" would take the Cubs "being too cheap to hold onto their MVP player." The Cubs may extend Baez, as he's the one who makes the most sense, but they've already tried unsuccessfully. They could re-open the negotiations, but there are obviously hurdles or he'd already be signed. Of course, losing some guys means they should have money, but it's really hard (and expensive) to build a team's core through free agency. Even if they re-sign some of them, they're losing much of what has made them successful for the past five years, and the guys they'll keep will be much more expensive than they have been. I'm sure Hoyer is happy to get the promotion, but he's in a tough position. He is expected to win, and he's facing some serious headwinds. If things go south, he'll get the blame, when he probably won't deserve most of it.

Not surprising, as it fits what he did with the Red Sox: 1) Find a major market team in need of a rebuild. 2) Tear the team down to get multiple top draft picks in a row, while trying to build the farm. 3) When the prospects get MLB ready, start spending huge money to bolster the MLB roster, not really caring about how long the deals are or how much they will hurt the team in a few years. 4) Win the World Series with this combo of elite prospects from top draft picks and high-priced free agents 5) Spend the next few years trading away every prospect you have trying to get another World Series win, and signing a few more high-priced free agents pushing you over the luxury tax. 6) Leave town and let the next guy try to sort out the mess you left them with no farm, a bunch of old, overpriced guys, and no "controlled" talent left to trade. It got the Red Sox two World Series wins, and the Cubs one, but I'm interested to see how Hoyer is going to navigate things. If he doesn't trade them, he's losing Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez after 2021. I could see him being the most hated guy in Chicago in the likely scenario that the Cubs stumble and end up at the bottom of the standings for a few seasons. Makes it even better that they all had down seasons in the crazy 2020 campaign, putting their trade value at an all-time low.