monty57

I am possibly the guy you're referencing here. I see the Brewers at around $91M right now, and I would bet that they could fit another $15M+ onto this year's payroll. Next year looks different. Braun, Cain, Yelich, Chacin, Thames, Anderson and Albers add up to $65.5M. Logan will cost either $4.125M or $0.625M if we don't exercise the option, and Jeffress will cost $3.175M if we exercise his option. That's $72.8M for 9/25 of the roster. Meanwhile, 12 of the remaining 16 roster spots (Nelson, Knebel, Vogt, Villar, Perez, Davies, Guerra, Shaw, Santana, Broxton, Bandy and Pina) are all up for arby raises. We could cut some of these guys, but this is a big part of the team and some of these guys could get big raises. We have some meaningful pre-arby guys like Arcia, Phillips, Suter, and Hader, and some prospects who could help, but there has to be some concern from the front office that adding another $15M+ in guaranteed salary to the 2019 payroll could push us well over budget and possibly even into the red. Attanasio has shown that he doesn't mind spending money, but he not going to voluntarily lose money. I'm not thrilled with our starting rotation, but we have a limited budget. Would we be better if Stearns had signed Cobb and not Chacin and some bullpen help? I don't know. We could have signed Cobb instead of Cain for roughly the same price, so I assume Stearns thought the upgrade from Phillips/Broxton to Cain was greater than the upgrade from the current back of the rotation to Cobb. Time will tell if he's right or wrong. We do have Nelson and some high-upside prospects who are close to contributing. Maybe he feels that if we skip the #5 a few times, our #4/5 mix will be good enough to get us through until the in-house reinforcements arrive. Maybe he's just higher on some of these guys then some fans/media are. I don't know the final answer to all of this stuff, but I do know that the Brewers are going in as one of the better teams in the NL, and I'm excited to get the season underway. Hopefully all the positives on the roster outweigh the negatives, and we end up in the playoffs.

This year would have been fine, but I don't think the Brewers could have afforded this contract next year with all of their arby raises. I think they traded for Yelich because they thought it was too good of a deal/value for them to pass up. But Yelich is a corner OF and that didn't solve our CF question. At that point, the question was whether they would be better off upgrading CF with Cain over Phillips/Broxton, or upgrading SP with Cobb over what we have. We only have the payroll going forward to sign one of those multi-year deals, and they chose Cain. They then tried to trade Santana for a young, inexpensive SP, but the corner OF market dried up and the deal didn't happen. We have probably been "in on" Cobb only if he would accept a higher-value, one-year deal. He held out for a multi-year deal and got it. While I would have liked Cobb, I'm fine not paying Cobb for the next four years simply because I doubt that we could afford it. I do wish we could've landed Lynn on the one-year deal, but maybe that deal wasn't available for Milwaukee. I'm concerned about the Brewer rotation this year. I hope Woodruff gets his chance as I believe he's earned it, and I hope Nelson will be back at full strength soon. I think we will skip the #5 starter for a while, so the opening day roster will probably only have four SP.

If you only have three capable MLB starting pitchers, you should skip the #5 guy as much as possible. It makes sense to start the season with four starters on the 25 man roster, as it would allow us to have an eight-man pen and still keep Aguilar or Broxton on the roster a while longer. Who knows what will happen over that nine-day stretch that may make us glad we have that extra guy. "Standard" is not a word I would use to describe our roster, so it will be interesting to see how this all works out. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-archer-has-some-questions-about-the-future-of-pitching/ Here's an article from Fangraphs interviewing Archer about the Rays' plan to start the season with a four-man rotation, using bullpen days as their "#5" to start the season. Could be similar to what the Brewers are thinking.

That’s the problem so many people have. Let’s just HOPE guys like Gallardo and Miley and Guerra just happen to figure things out even though they’ve all been pretty bad for awhile now. Why not go get a guy that’s actually been good recently? Yeah it’s going to cost money. Yeah you may have to give him two or three years when you only wanted to give him one. But you’re taking an AWFULLY big risk relying on Miley and Guerra and Suter to give you 15-20 starts until (if???) Nelson comes back. I was never all that big on Cobb. I preferred Arrietta personally. But given he’s the best of what’s left and looking at what we currently have I have no issue giving him two years or even three if the price is right. And this is all assuming the price is right. I don’t think anyone is suggesting we give him a blank check and tell him to fill in his cost. It's not as easy as "just give him the extra years." The Brewers are currently at $91M payroll. They have a lot of arby raises next year and only lose Gallardo ($2M) and Sogard ($2.4M) to free agency. Jeffress ($1.7M) has an option. If they signed Cobb to something like $15M / year, they could probably handle the $106M this year (at least it would be within previous years' highs) but they could be well into the $120's or $130's next year which may not be something they can do. Adding to that, they really wouldn't have a lot of salary they could trade away without hurting the team. Vogt and Villar could be dropped, but everyone else will either be untradeable or would hurt to lose. btw, I'm one of those people who have a problem with the sentence you quoted. I just think that's what's going to happen if Cobb doesn't cave in and sign a one-year deal.

Chacin was signed to a 2-year MLB deal. Stearns obviously likes him and he will be a starter. People may question whether it was a good signing, but no one should think he won't be in the rotation. Miley was signed on a minor league contract. I think he was brought in to be the AAA depth. If he impresses management enough that he wins the job then good for him, but it's not like we lose him if he's sent to AAA. Gallardo was awful as a starter but decent as a reliever last year. I think he was brought in to compete for a spot as a multi-inning reliever. Those guys are more valuable than ever. I certainly don't think Brewers management are dumb. I think they made some moves and reached their budget. Part of the plan was to trade Santana for a young, cheap starting pitcher. When the market for corner outfielders completely dried up, they got stuck but are trying to make the best of the situation. They're still one of the better teams in the NL, but they could use an upgrade in the rotation. They know that "hole" in the roster could cost them some games, so Attanasio would probably spring for Cobb on a one-year deal, but they probably wouldn't be able to afford to pay him next year unless they found a way to trade off a lot of salary. Therefore, I think they're holding out hope for Cobb to accept a one-year deal like Lynn signed, but will go into the season with the current group if he continues to demand a multi-year deal. If so, they (like us) will then hope that whoever ends up in the rotation will perform decently until Nelson returns and/or some of the minor leaguers are ready.

I answered the initial question ("take the championship"), but like Brewer Fever said, it was based on guarantees in a non-guaranteed world. So I asked what I thought was a more realistic question based on what a team could control without guarantees (strategy for building a team).

It's easy to say that you'd take the championship, as that's what it's all about. The better question is: "Would you rather see the Brewers make moves to go all in for one season, or would you rather they try to build to have a solid team that can vie for the playoffs year-in and year-out."

We have an actual orthopedic surgeon on the site who posted that he should be able to come back from this injury at 100%, so I'll trust his opinion on that. Whether or not last year was the "real" Nelson is a question, but hopefully the injury isn't what would cause any potential regression.

"Quality" or "Passable?" With the current mix, that is the rotation I'd go with, I just think we're going to have a lot of high scoring games. We have three guys who should be okay in Anderson, Davies and Chacin. None of them are "aces," but they're guys I'm comfortable seeing on the mound every five days. I like Suter as a swingman, like the Cubs use Montgomery. He could be very useful to the team as a guy who can pitch multiple innings out of the pen, come in against a tough lefty, pitch one inning, or start a game here and there when needed. He seems to have problems when hitters get 2-3 plate appearances against him, so I have some concerns if he's put into the rotation as a full-time starter. That said, he's probably a better option than the rest of the guys he's competing against. I'd also go with Woodruff, in large part because the Brewers need to have prospects make the step from the farm to the big leagues. Since they've relegated Hader to bullpen duty, Woodruff is the best shot right now for a rookie to succeed as a starter. I expect a bumpy ride from him, but he should get a shot. If there was any truth to the "controllable young talent" comments, Woodruff has to be given a shot. Signing Cobb would be a huge upgrade, as it would not only add a quality starter to the rotation, but it would also allow Suter to take on the swingman role where he would be a valuable contributor to the team. I just don't think we could afford to pay everyone in 2019 if Cobb were signed to more than a one-year deal.

Adam Lind just signed a minor league deal. Nobody is trading for Thames right now, and the Brewers need an LHB 1B/PH even if Braun does play ~120 games at 1B. Thames has also been a significantly better player than Aguilar for their entire careers, including even last year when Aguilar over-achieved dramatically. Keeping Aguilar instead of Thames does not add up. If they don't want Thames, they'll keep Choi instead. Thames gave the Brewers 2.1 WAR last year, while Lind gave the Nationals 0.9 WAR. Thames may or may not have trade value to other teams at this time, but Lind's contract status probably isn't the best barometer from which to get your read. Thames is better than Lind. If Braun is good enough at first that the Brewers decide to name him the everyday first baseman, and if that led to them trading Thames, I don't see a need to keep a LH backup 1B. I think it's rare to keep multiple guys who primarily play first base. Trading Thames would seem to make it more likely that Aguilar would be kept, but it would still have to make the most sense for the roster. It would be pretty easy to simply let Shaw or someone else play 1B when Braun needs a day off, with Ji-Man getting called up if/when Braun gets injured. But mainly it depends on all of the options and which one makes to most sense as the season is ready to begin. It still seems that the likely scenario is that Aguilar is the odd man out, with Braun splitting time at 1B / OF, and Thames getting a lot of PAs as the primary 1B vs RHP. We'll probably roll with a four man bench so we can have an eight-man pen. We need a backup catcher, and the "three headed monster" will take up two bench spots. Braun/Thames is probably the fourth spot, so we may not have room for Broxton or Phillips, let alone Aguilar. Thames, Broxton and Aguilar may not have a ton of trade value, but it really seems like someone should be traded, even if it's just for teenage prospects a la the Lind trade a few years ago. But this offseason has been anything but normal.

This is partly my concern and suggestion on Santana to AAA while Keeping Aguilar. Thames wasn't the full term product of health last season. Do you see where this is going? Thames mixed with Braun at 1b waiving Aguilar leads to the when do one or the other go down for their injury? What of both at the same time? Now we are playing Perez at 1b? Perez at 3b and Shaw to 1b? .257/.283/.388/.671 That is Perez's career slash line. And he barely beat that last year 259/289/414/704 Do you get the process of thinking? I'm pretty sure that's why we signed Ji-Man and promised him we wouldn't sign another first baseman. He will play in AAA and be called up if/when and injury occurs.

The problem is that while we will have an All Star OF sitting the bench every day, we could very well have a sub-par starting pitcher on the mound 40% of the time. We spent our resources to add two great players to our deepest position, while passing on seemingly affordable upgrades where we could really use them (2b, SP). While I am skeptical that the three guys who were so bad last year that we traded for Walker will suddenly be good, at least there is some reason to believe that Villar could bounce back. At the back-end of our rotation, I don't see much room for hope (other than at some point Nelson will return). I still find it hard to believe that Stearns thought spending the money to sign Cain or the prospects to acquire Yelich (blocking Santana/Braun) was more important than spending that capital to upgrade our rotation. As to Braun, I know the PED stigma will always be the first thing a lot of people think of, but outside of that he has been nothing but great for the Brewers. He's put up numbers that should garner Hall of Fame votes, he has been asked to change position multiple times and has never complained, he plays through obvious pain, he signed a team-friendly extension and later came back to the team to sign a deal that would make him a Brewer-for-life, and it has been noted that he tries to convince teammates to take early extensions. Now he knows that the team is in a roster-crunch and rather than doing what many players in his position would do, which is say "I'm the veteran and I'm going to play my position," he goes to the manager and basically says that he'll be a utility player if that helps the team, while taking extra reps at positions where he's uncomfortable. I don't know what the next few years will bring, but I look forward to seeing #8 hanging in the Miller Park rafters shortly after his playing days are done.

Woodruff isn't going to be in the opening day rotation. If we go with two of Miley, Guerra, Gallardo, Suter then we're basically hoping that we win more 12-10 games than we lose. "By committee" games worked to some extent for us in September last year when we were allowed to have 40 guys on the roster. It wouldn't work over a full season. Woodruff has done enough through his minor league career to earn a spot in the rotation. If we block him with the junk we have (in conjunction with things like leaving Hader in the pen and trading away a bunch of minor leaguers) then the whole "young, controllable talent" line Stearns has been using has been a lie.

Bandy is probably fine if Pina repeats his 2017 numbers. As a backup catcher, someone who can play decent defense with some pop in the bat is alright. If Pina proves to be a one-year wonder and Bandy is required to play more of an everyday role, I think MLB pitchers would find a lot of holes in his swing.

First, I think relative value is as important as individual perceived value. Second, it depends on how "optimal" you're looking. If we could trade Santana for a starting pitcher that had a little less than Santana's perceived value, I'd do it. The relative value lost from moving from Santana to Phillips/Broxton as the 4th OF is less than the relative value gained by getting a good starting pitcher to replace Gallardo, Guerra, etc. I wouldn't trade Santana for garbage, but I wouldn't need to get 100% of perceived value if the trade would fix the roster by eliminating a logjam and filling a black hole. I just think that Stearns made the Yelich and Cain moves expecting that he'd get a decent return for Santana, but was offered garbage. Now we are where we are, and we'll make the best of it. There are worse problems than having too many good outfielders, but ideally we would have another good starting pitcher instead of an extra good outfielder.

The problem may be that his market has expanded, as teams who were waiting on Arrieta to decide (and thought that they were in with a real chance) have now switched focus to Cobb as the "best option remaining"... who knows - it may actually spark a bidding war where one didn't exist before. Conversely, since Cobb was likened more to Lynn than to Arrieta, it's possible that he's only receiving one-year offers and he's holding out in hopes someone will break and give him a multi-year deal.

I'd love to sign Cobb. My only worry is that while we could probably handle $106M payroll this year, that would balloon next year with arby raises. Unless we were able to shed some salary without hurting the team, we probably wouldn't be able to afford it. I think it comes down to whether we were better off giving the money to Cain or Cobb and Stearns chose Cain, expecting to trade Santana for a young starter (which obviously didn't happen). We're probably hoping Cobb will follow Lynn and accept a one-year deal.

We can make the best out of a screwy situation and say that the players may be better off by getting more rest, but I can't believe that the plan going into the offseason was to get the team into a situation where we would have an All Star caliber player like Cain, Yelich, Braun, or Santana sitting on the bench almost every day. Something went wrong with the plan, and seeing guys like Garlos Gonzalez signing for relative peanuts leads me to believe that the expected market for Santana was not there and we're now stuck with too many outfielders and less-than-stellar options for the back end of our rotation and second base. I really hope Braun is able to play to an acceptable level at first base, as that opens up options. Unfortunately, that means we will likely jettison Aguilar who I like more than any of "the three-headed monster" at second or any of the group vying for the fifth starter spot. The inability to trade Santana to fix one of these holes after we spent all of the capital we were going to spend (prospect and monetary) to land Cain and Yelich just leaves us in an odd position. We're still one of the better teams in the NL, it's just odd to sit an All Star while accepting mediocrity in some important positions.

Except a playoff appearance if second base is the black hole it was last year before we brought in Walker. I understand liking a player for his upside, but we've given Villar a lot of "leash," while we traded away Brinson, blocked Phillips, and won't let Hader into the rotation because we didn't want to roll with their growing pains in a potential playoff year. I'm just having a hard time putting together the pieces in the Brewer puzzle this offseason. Stearns has done a wonderful job in his short tenure, so I'm sure he's got his reasons, but signing Walker and Lynn to one-year deals would have seemed to have made a lot of sense in conjunction with what we've done.

Both went to teams where they are clear upgrades with no question about playing time. Both would be questionable upgrades with the Brewers, and probably have to share time. We traded for Walker last year to be an upgrade to the exact same guys we're now going to use. We paid him more for half a season then what he's making for a full season with the Yankees. If we need the money to sign Cobb, then I understand, but if we passed and don't sign the one remaining pitching upgrade, I will be confused. We brought in two outfielders when we were stocked in the OF, and have not addressed our biggest needs which were finding another starting pitcher and an everyday second baseman. This offseason is kind of like buying a 2nd and 3rd home and leaving ourselves without enough money to afford a car to drive to get you there. I'm excited about the season but it's odd that we're going to have an All-Star caliber OF sitting the bench everyday watching some AAAA guys play.

Agree. A one-year deal would be perfect for the Brewers. We have a lot in the pipeline, but need someone better than the Gallardo group to bridge the gap until Nelson is healthy and the prospects are MLB ready. With all of the arby bumps over the next few years, we could have some financial concerns of signing a multi-year deal, but a one-year deal eliminates this. Cobb would obviously prefer a high-value, multi-year deal, but if believes in himself and thinks he can get his best pitch back and dominate this year, in the current market he could benefit from a one-year deal. 1/$12M followed up by a big deal could be better than something like 3/$26. It would be risky, but with everything going on this year it could be possible, and I'd love to see the Brewers sign that deal.

When Braun goes on the DL and we have an outfield of Yelich/Cain/Santana with Phillips or Broxton up as the 4th it won't seem like a log jam anymore. We are at the point of his career that it's not even an "if" it a "when". They signed Cain because they get high contact, low strike out rate, good base running, and good defense player that fits what their vision is. Everyone is looking at the log jam that we will have on opening day, but it would most likely play itself out over the course of the year that someone is spending time on the DL. We have a great amount of depth and flexibility now that we did not have before. Even if we don't move anyone I think this will play out just fine. If we do move someone and we stack up a couple injuries during the season and are playing a 5th/6th/7th outfielder like we did last year at times we might end up wishing we had the depth back. I agree, but without an injury, we're going to trot out someone like Guerra or Gallardo every five days, and with an injury we could implode, with our bullpen getting seriously taxed and a merry-go-round of starters trying to find someone to stop the bleeding. When our outfielders are healthy, we will have an All-Star talent sitting on the bench everyday. As things currently stand, 20+% of that time will be spent watching a starting pitcher who should not be starting for a team with playoff aspirations. I may be wrong, but I think Stearns signed Cain with the intention of trading Santana for a starting pitcher, not because he wanted to have an All-Star sitting on the bench every day as injury insurance

I agree. I like that we have added two "professional hitters"/higher OBP guys for our top two spots in the order. The Cubs just lost their table-setter and hopefully that hurts them a bit.

I think that when he made the Cain and Yelich moves, he thought he'd have a good market for Santana and add a cost-controlled starter from a trade. I don't think it's that he doesn't see Cobb as an upgrade, it's that we wouldn't be able to afford to sign the contract. We'd be okay this year, but by next year we'd be in the red with all the arby raises. If that's the case, then the question is whether we'd have been better off signing Cobb instead of Cain. Another scenario is that Nelson is looking good, so Stearns is only looking at someone for ten starts or so. Stearns could be comfortable with the mix he has for the first couple of months, and by that time we add Nelson and some of our minor leaguers will be that much closer to being MLB ready.

It's semantics, I know, but I'm 99.9% sure that I read that the top pitchers are not at the IMG Academy training camp. That includes Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn. It might make sense for them to skip the camp, because it would be pretty easy for them to get injured there while not under contract, leaving them unemployed until they're healthy. Conversely, not going to the camp means that the longer they wait, the longer it will take before they are ready to make their first start. A healthy pitcher makes around 30 starts in a season, so if they miss spring training, they may miss 3-4 starts before they're ready to go, or roughly 10% of their season.