vetter

Zero chance the Brewers extend Yelich under Stearns' watch. And it will end up being a win/win for both sides: A). Stearns will not commit to the lucrative multi-year AAV it would take to lock in Yelich-that has never been his MO. He is all about value. He gambles on bounce back prospects for little money. He signs high AAV deals but for short terms (Moose and Grandal). Of course, the one exception is Lorenzo Cain. But for a small market like Milwaukee, it's ludicrous to compare his $16M AAV to the $30M+ AAV that Yelich can expect. If this were DM, there's a fighting chance this could be Ryan Braun all over again. But that's the fundamental difference between DM and DS. B). Stearns understands the law of diminishing return on an aging player. Again, how do the Brewers justify paying the absurd amount of money it will take to lock in Yelich when he's going into age 31 or so just because his last name is Yelich? They realize his WAR will begin dropping accordingly. That's what happens. Once again, there are teams that can pay what it takes but the Brewers don't happen to be one of them. C). When it comes down to money, Yelich knows he can simply make more of it elsewhere. Simple economics of baseball. So unless he truly believes he has the best chance of winning a WS with Milwaukee and can get paid the same as a Dodgers, Nationals, etc., there's no benefit to him in staying. The solution and ultimate outcome: As others have said, Yelich gets traded in the 2021/2022 time frame. Yelich wins because he gets traded while he's still in his prime. There's teams that will pay him crazy amounts of money to capitalize on the 2 or so prime years he has left at that point (i.e. Reds-Moose for 4 years at age 31 and White Sox-Grandal 4 years at age 31). Brewers win because they sell high and stock up rather than ultimately losing him to free agency. The only scenario I see the Brewers retaining Yelich is if he craters so substantially over the next two years and his value plummets to the point that they're willing to take a long term risk on him as a bounce back prospect.

All the chatter I've been hearing from people is Brewers sweep over Pirates. Ostensibly and on paper that's the case-the Pirates are a hot mess. But I just hope it's not one of those series where we drop 2 of 3 and everyone is scratching their heads. Because that's baseball sometimes.

Here's your original point: Re: 2019 Standings and Playoff Races DiscussionReport this post #654 Posted: September 19, 2019, 9:41 AM Post User avatar Posts: 3879 Super unlikely we get close to the division without a wild card in our back pocket. I can't envision that happening. Actually if you crunch the numbers there's a ton of scenarios where the Brewers are within a game of the division and are nowhere near having a wild card in their back pocket. As long as there's four teams in contention, and they all stay very close to each other, one team has to miss the playoffs.

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1. And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason. I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us. I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division. Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in. It's super unlikely. Your scenario would involve both the Cubs and Brewers exceeding their projected win totals, 3 of the 4 teams winning at a higher percentage than they have all season, and (arguably) the best team of the bunch performing the worst of the four. It can happen, but it's super unlikely. Whatever you say dude. But back to your original point, that clearly shows the Brewers can be within a game of the division and lose out on the playoffs altogether. For that matter, those four teams can all win one less game and the result is the same. I just want the pesky fly in the room (the Cubs) to get swatted away to make our path a little easier.

How is it super unlikely for Cubs to win 7, Brewers 7, Nats 6 (of 11), and Cards 5? That's hardly egregious. They're all winning teams fighting for a playoff spot with everything to play for. It's not like 3 teams have to go 9-1. And if that happens, we have a 3 way tie and Brewers are still within one game of the division with no guarantee of postseason. I would feel a whole lot better if Cards take care of business in their 7 against the Cubs to knock one of the four out and give the Brewers more wiggle room. The bottom line is the more the Cubs lose, the more padding the Brewers have because Cards are already + 3 on us. I totally get the people who are all in for the division. But it's gonna be really tough to win 8 or 9 of 10 to have a reasonable shot at the division. Postseason Brewers baseball isn't exactly something we're used to so I just want in.

I disagree. The Brewers could be within a game of the division and not make the playoffs. If Brewers go 7-3 we finish with 89 wins. If Cubs go 7-3 they finish with 89 wins. (4 of 7 from Cards and 3 of 3 vs Pirates). If Cards go 5-5 they finish with 90 wins (3 of 7 from Cubs and 2 of 3 vs DBacks). If Nats go 7-4 they finish with 90 wins or 6-5 they have 89 wins. So that scenario would put the Brewers within one game of the division but not even guarantee them a wildcard spot. If Cards annihilate the Cubs, the Cubs fade and we're not the odd team out missing the playoffs.

What I don't like about the Cubs going 3-1 and a 3-way division tie is that it puts them in a better spot to take the a wildcard and we miss the postseason altogether. If the Cards dominate we have a much easier chance of making it in. I guess it's 6 one way, a half dozen the other. The real question is do we want an easier shot at securing a WC game and making the postseason or a chance to take the division but missing the playoffs altogether.

You are correct. Brewers need to go 8-2 and Cards 5-5 just to force a tiebreaker for the division. I feel totally disgusting about myself, but I'm going all-in on the Cards for their 7 against the Cubs. If Cards win 4 of 7, the Cubs can sweep the Pirates and they'd still end up 6-4. That means if the Brewers can go 7-3, they'd be a game up on the Cubs for at least WC2. Even though the Cubs have dominated the Cards at home this year, their team is not the same now given their injuries. So I think it's completely realistic for Cards to go 4-3 or 5-2 vs Cubs. Next 10: SD: 1-0 PIT: 3-0 Reds: 2-1 Rockies: 1-2 If Brewers can accomplish that, it's Playoff time!!

This. It's ridiculous to think that guys like Moose or Grandal have no reason to play hard, even if they're on a sinking ship. They will most likely decline options and be free agents next year. Their future income is dependent on how well they perform every day. Guys like Shaw and Arcia are going into arbitration and so it's similar for them.

PS Vue carries FSNWI

Interesting Stat: As of July 3, 2018, the Brewers had allowed just 320 runs, the fewest RA in the National League at the time. As of July 3, 2019, the Reds have allowed just 323 runs, the fewest RA in the National League so far. Meanwhile, the Brewers have allowed 421 runs so far in 2019, a difference of +101 year over year. The Reds had allowed 436 runs as of July 3, 2018 for a difference of -113.

Is it just me, or does it seem like whenever he's batting well he makes goofy defensive blunders? Now lately the bat has cooled off but he's been turning some impressive double plays. The guy has shown flashes of greatness on both sides. I just hope he can stay consistent.

I never considered Hiura playing 1st but that could be a brilliant idea. You get a solid right handed batter in the lineup but mitigate some of the rookie defensive issues he had at 2nd. I found myself missing Shaw's defensive presence while Hiura was up.

Batting stats as of 6/2/19 Orlando Arcia BA: .264 OBP: .335 OPS: .766 RBI: 25 HR: 8 Age: 24 Salary (2019): $565,700 Manny Machado BA: .255 OBP: .343 OPS: .761 RBI: 27 HR: 9 Age: 26 Salary: 10 years/$300M

I think part of why Arcia went was because he wasn't happy that whoever was on 2nd (Aguilar?), wasn't sent home on his hit just before that. They showed him standing there shaking his head. Not sure, as they didn't give a good replay, but probably a good decision by the Windmill on not sending that runner on Arcia's hit. Yeah, it was Aguilar who stopped at 3rd base in the bottom of the seventh after Arcia's hit. Arcia was probably pissed because Strasburg was dominating the Brewers' hitters and at that point it was still 0-0. Had Aguilar scored, Arcia would have driven in the first run of the game. I don't think it would have been wise to send the big guy to the plate in such a tight game when hits were so hard to come by. In the end, everything worked out!

Maddon loves to think he's the smartest guy in the room, so the lefty starters are probably by design. I imagine the Brewers will stack a lot of right handed batters for this series by starting Braun in LF, Aguilar at 1B, and Perez at 2B (if Moose goes to 3B). Grandal of course can bat right. All things being equal, I'd still favor Gamel over Braun and Thames over Aguilar at this point. BUT, Braun and Aguilar have shown signs of life lately. They're going to need a great series if we want to be effective against the Cubs this weekend. As far as I'm concerned, I'd just as soon see Perez play over Shaw against any LHP at this point. Hiura could be interesting...

Time will tell but one good sign is he already hit one more dinger this year than all of last year and just missed clearing the fence with another on Tuesday. Looking at his numbers so far, they're definitely trending more in line with 2017 than 2018. That would be the one thing that could be a legit prediction that he has turned a corner. Because last year he had zero power and this year he does...much like his more successful 2017 campaign. That could certainly lead one to be optimistic about him. Here's another reason I'm generally optimistic on Arcia: I think he got a major wake-up call after his stints in AAA last year. I have no inside information, but my impression was that he had gotten complacent last year given he was basically assured a starting role at SS going into the season. I even remember reading something on reviewingthebrew where he apparently showed up to spring training out of shape. That article should still be out there somewhere. After AAA, he came back swinging the bat quite well in the back half of the year and extremely well down the stretch and into the playoffs. Now I'm sure he improved some mechanical aspects in AAA, but I think it was as much mental as mechanics.

Arcia always struck me as a bit of a loose cannon. Case in point is blatantly running through a stop sign past third base on Tuesday night. He ended up scoring but went against Sedar's directive. I really think with him it's all about evolving in his maturation process. That should help his focus somewhat. But I think the rigors of a 162 game schedule will cause anyone to have bad days now and again.

The Brewers will be tested this weekend at Wrigley. But they can make a huge statement if they win that series and take 6 or 7 of 10 on the road trip. Even 5-5 should position them well to finish the month out heading into a more favorable June schedule.

Time will tell but one good sign is he already hit one more dinger this year than all of last year and just missed clearing the fence with another on Tuesday. Looking at his numbers so far, they're definitely trending more in line with 2017 than 2018.

Batting Stats as of 5/8/19 Lorenzo Cain Orlando Arcia .250-BA .250-BA .310-OBP .299-OBP .704-OPS .698-OPS .395-SLG .398-SLG 4-HR 4-HR

Well, since this is the optimism thread, I won't pick a fight on the 100 win prediction. :-) And if their pitching can remain solid, it may not be out of reach. Here's hoping! I will say this: Towards the end of April, I had begun to lose a lot of respect for the FO and decision makers within the Brewers organization. I never liked the notion of gambling on 3 young unproven starting pitchers in a year in which we're supposed to be in contention for the WS. It was infuriating to see them getting consistently shelled early on and losing games we can't afford to give away in a very tight NL. BUT, the organization has made some incredible adjustments-signing a solid veteran in Gio. Moving Burnes to the pen. Even starting Houser and inserting Peralta early on but beyond the first inning is good for him psychologically. They've shown they can make some decisive decisions. And strategically, they've been spot on. That has restored my confidence that this team is actually in it to win it and is serious about competing this year.

This. I know hindsight and all, but inserting Freddy back in the rotation so quickly was an odd decision then, and an odd one now. They've finally found a little balance, then turned around and decided to throw it all out of whack again. I know these young guys need to develop, but there is no reason that a guy like Peralta can't spend time in AAA working on perfecting his secondary offerings. Exactly! If Chase was struggling I could maybe see Freddy starting but Chase has been very solid and thus far is a good option to go with. Freddy NEEDS to develop that 3rd pitch before he's ready for prime time. Please, let's just stick with Chacin-Davies-Anderson-Woodruff-Gonzalez. They have been solid and have given us a fighting chance. The Burnes and Peralta starts have been mostly throw away games that have taxed our bullpen.

I agree. Call me crazy but I really think this team has most of the pieces in place to make a strong run down the stretch. If we take away the atrocious starts by Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff to a lesser degree, the rest of the starters have fared quite well (with the exception of a few shaky starts by Chacin but he's never been very good in April). Chase and Zach have been great and Gio should be solid enough. Let's go with Chacin-Anderson-Davies-Woodruff-Gonzalez. Move Peralta and Burnes to the pen. I get it, they need to develop, but not if we want to be competitive this year. Please, no more starts for Peralta and Burnes. We just can't afford a high probability for loss in such a tight division. Start Gamel in the outfield when any RHP is starting. The position players are starting to hit and things will click soon. I think the only critical component we're missing is another high leverage arm to supplement Hader.

My angst today is why Freddy was even slotted in the rotation to begin with. I get it, Chase had his injury but how many games can we throw away this season to horrendous starting pitching in a very competitive division? I think this team will have some lasting success if they go with Chacin-Anderson-Davies-Woodruff-Gonzalez. I'm not even asking for Keuchel or another high profile arm but please no more Burnes and Peralta in the rotation if we want to salvage the season.