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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    I think the difference in opinions stem from when people think the Brewers will even be in a position to want to fill their budget on a contending team. We know their willing to spend $100m+ when the timing is right. If you think this offseason is when they're ready to make that kind of commitment and you think it'll take $70m in FAs and trade acqusiitions instead of $50m to get where they want, then yes, Braun's contract is potentially hindering things. If you think they'll take a couple more years nurturing the farm system and seeing how players develop once they reach the major league level before deciding they're ready to max out on their payroll, you're probably not as worried about Braun's contract hanging around for 3 more seasons. And at that point if the Brewers are looking to sign someone to a $200m contract, I'm not so sure, even if Braun has a year left on his contract, that they'll let that get in the way of making a move they think will improve the club.
  2. brewerfan82
    The reason people bring up the low payroll is because it makes Braun's contract not prohibitive of making other baseball moves if the opportunity is there. If the Brewers thought $50m to sign Robert was a good move, I don't think Braun's contract prohibited them from doing that and they would have made that move whether we had Braun or not. Now if our payroll was at $120m AND we had Braun's contract, then you could make a stronger case that his contract is a reason we couldn't make a move like that. It doesn't mean it's not a bad contract or that MA shouldn't care about it, but a lower payroll should make his contract less effective on what DS can and cannot do as the GM. All that said, maybe MA is telling DS that he can't make a move like that because the payroll isn't $20m lower than it already is, but we've seen him spend a lot more money on the team than we're currently spending and he seems to be an owner that will give the go ahead if a move makes good baseball sense, so it seems unlikely that would be restricting DS's ability to develop the franchise at this point.
  3. brewerfan82
    Of course people want to trade players at some point. That's how the league is setup. Wouldn't you rather have 5 years of a player plus 6 years each of multiple players received in a trade, than 6 years of the same player plus nothing? Building a baseball franchise is asset management. Having players over-perform so you can potentially get more value for them than they're worth should always be something you're rooting for. If you can't afford to trade a player or two in their final contract year and still be competitive, you're not at the point that you need to be to start neglecting the long term outlook of the team in order to optimize the current team's chances at winning a World Series.
  4. brewerfan82
    Nice, ready for that awkward moment where they put him at short during a Garza start now
  5. brewerfan82
    Not sure, but their top picks have been pretty putrid: [pre]YEAR PCK PLAYER POS WAR ---- --- ------ --- --- 2006 16 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 4.0 2007 7 Matt LaPorta 1B -0.9 2008 16 Brett Lawrie 3B 15.4 2009 26 Eric Arnett RHP 2010 14 Dylan Covey RHP -0.7 2011 12 Taylor Jungmann RHP 1.1 2012 27 Clint Coulter C 2014 12 Kodi Medeiros LHP 2015 15 Trent Clark OF 2016 5 Corey Ray OF[/pre]
  6. brewerfan82
    This brings up an interesting question... How close is this thread to being the longest in BF.net history? What are its closest competitors?
  7. brewerfan82
    Nope, the poster that wrote that was a month off. Six months after the trade takes us til June 6th. Which, while it's difficult for us who are impatient to find out how it turns out, hopefully it's a good thing if DS does get his pick from a list and he has another month to see how players are progressing.
  8. brewerfan82
    If we traded something other than a relief pitcher, yeah, I'd say it's a bit early. Or possibly if he was a stud reliever like Chapman (FIP under 1.94 each of the past 4 seasons) or Miller (FIP under 2.16 each of the past 4 seasons), but he's Tyler Thornburg who's good, but inconsistent (FIPs of 7.10, 3.11, 3.81, 5.11, and 2.83 in his career) and has never been as dominating as the top relievers. Best case scenario at this point he's going to affect about 700 at bats over the rest of his contract. Shaw's probably going have about 600 at bats this year alone and we'll have him under control for 4 more years still. With the injury, we traded about 2.5 years of a good, but not elite, inconsistent relief pitcher for 5 years of a guy who's immediately our everyday 3rd baseman at the MLB level and potentially 18 more years of 3 additional prospects in the minors. Obviously the chances we get 23 productive MLB seasons out of those guys is next to nill, but that's a ton of ammo to take a chance on. Add in that Thornburg is hurt already and you don't know how he'll return from that and it's really difficult to see this turning into a deal we regret. It may be early to call it highway robbery, but it may only take to the end of the first season to do so and I'd argue it's already pretty close to being clearly a good deal on our end regardless of what happens going forward. I may undervalue relievers to some extent, but the market for relief pitchers is just insane. I'd make that trade everyday of the week.
  9. brewerfan82
    Definitely agree that 10 players would be excessive. But even a player list half that size would be a nice opportunity to grab someone showing promise and it also would explain 1.) why Stearns is waiting as long as possible to choose a player and 2.) why both GMs were so sure a player would be chosen over the cash. It will be interesting to see how this turns out and if we get to hear any of the parameters of the deal.
  10. brewerfan82
    A quantity list definitely makes sense, especially if it involves lower lever prospects. The larger the list, the more likely Stearns can grab a player who's showing some encouraging progress and development to start off this year and may turn into another quality prospect. Our top 16 prospects are all in high A or higher, so it'd be nice to get another guy with some potential in the lower minors. Regardless, this trade has already added pieces to the A, AA, and MLB levels of the organization and whatever the PTBNL piece ends up being is just icing on the cake. DS did a really nice job of adding talent throughout the system on this one. Hopefully some of our current pitchers can draw similar interest as the year goes on because I think Stearns should keep striking while this reliever market is hot!
  11. brewerfan82
    This is where the front office will show their true colors on the rebuild. If Garza is that good into July, there is a pretty chance we are competing for the wild card. It will be interesting to see if they sell off that many pieces come July if they have a chance at snagging one of those two last spots. Garza, like so many other pitchers, has improved since getting out of the shadow of former pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Garza had been solid his whole career except for his time with Kranitz. I'd think teams will recognize this. Johnson will keep Garza pitching well, and the Brewers have zero need for a salary dump. He'll only be dealt for value. Not sure how much Kranitz hurt Garza. While in 2015, Garza had his worst year FIP-wise (4.94), in 2014 also with Kranitz, he had his 2nd best career FIP (3.54). Since then he's had mediocre FIP's of 4.33 and 4.23. In fact as a whole his FIP with Kranitz (4.20) was lower than it has been since (4.32). Meanwhile, all three other current starters that spent time under Kranitz (Peralta, Davies, and Nelson), also had better years with Kranitz (4.25, 3.81, 3.97 FIPs respectively) than they have had since (4.79, 4.05, 5.02). Not that FIP is the be-all end-all of stats, but I don't know how clear cut it is that Kranitz was in general a negative enough influence on players for other teams to take note of it.
  12. brewerfan82
    That deal is too good to be true, but if it happened, I think Gallo would have to play first and Thames would take Braun's spot in left.
  13. brewerfan82
    I could smell a semantics driven "what's a true ace? who's a #2 vs #3 pitcher? etc." argument brewing, so out of curiosity I took last year's playoff teams top 5 starters based on inning pitched, sorted them by ERA+, and then averaged out the "#1" through "#5" starters for each team. This is for all 10 MLB playoff teams: [pre]Rk Age W L ERA CG SHO IP HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 1 26.9 15.2 7.2 2.82 1.5 0.7 196.8 18.9 50.1 193.4 156.3 3.26 1.09 7.5 0.8 2.3 8.9 5.0 2 29.7 13.5 5.6 3.19 1.5 0.5 166.0 18.0 46.5 155.9 134.6 3.66 1.17 7.9 1.0 2.6 8.3 3.4 3 27.6 11.3 8.4 3.82 0.4 0.1 164.8 18.5 51.8 147.0 113.0 3.88 1.24 8.4 1.0 2.8 8.0 3.0 4 30.2 9.0 8.4 4.36 0.2 0.0 149.5 17.8 46.6 129.3 100.0 4.03 1.29 8.8 1.1 2.9 7.7 2.8 5 31.4 8.8 9.1 4.76 0.0 0.0 138.0 21.8 46.6 112.6 90.4 4.71 1.37 9.3 1.4 3.1 7.3 2.7[/pre] Here are just the NL teams in case you were worried about the AL skewing results (surprisingly they're kind of worse, but it's also an even smaller sample size): [pre]Rk Age W L ERA CG SHO IP HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 1 27.4 15.8 6.4 3.24 1.2 0.4 201.9 22.4 55.2 190.2 138.6 3.66 1.16 8.0 1.0 2.5 8.5 3.8 2 31.4 13.2 5.8 3.46 1.2 0.4 157.1 18.6 49.0 130.6 129.6 4.10 1.19 8.0 1.1 2.8 7.4 2.8 3 27.8 10.2 8.2 4.20 0.4 0.0 167.1 20.4 55.6 142.4 108.4 4.18 1.30 8.7 1.1 3.0 7.6 2.7 4 26.8 7.8 9.2 4.75 0.4 0.0 150.0 17.6 54.2 125.2 95.0 4.26 1.37 9.0 1.1 3.3 7.4 2.3 5 32.2 8.8 9.2 4.83 0.0 0.0 143.9 25.8 49.0 105.8 93.2 5.15 1.37 9.1 1.6 3.2 6.7 2.7[/pre] Anywho, thought it was interesting to take a look at.
  14. brewerfan82
    Yeah, I think they just decided to go another route to get someone better. Saying the "Pirates at least discussed swinging a trade for Nieuwenhuis" doesn't even necessarily mean they discussed it with the Brewers, could just mean someone in the front office brought it up as one idea and they decided they had better options.
  15. brewerfan82
    I presume you're basing this off this: "In the wake of Starling Marte’s suspension, the NL Central rival Pirates at least discussed swinging a trade for Nieuwenhuis, but they’ll instead look elsewhere for outfield help." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/brewers-outright-kirk-nieuwenhuis.html It'd be interesting to hear the details on that, but I'm guessing it was somewhere between 1.) them asking if he could be had for "cash considerations" with the Brewers saying no and 2.) doing due diligence in asking about him, but deciding fairly quickly they'd rather pursue better options.
  16. brewerfan82
    Luis Robert is now a free agent. Is this where we take advantage of our extra bonus pool money? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/luis-robert-declared-a-free-agent.html
  17. brewerfan82
    Lackey has always been a Grade A douche. Thames was garbage in Spring Training. Now he's hot. He's not going to put up a 1.4 OPS for the season so he will cool off. Probably somewhere between his horrible spring and this torrid 10 day hot streak. It would be really nice if he could hit .290 and put up a .900 OPS If a .263/.368/.404/.771 line is what he maintains while he's "garbage", then we have a very special player on our hands.
  18. brewerfan82
    For anyone interested, small sample size of course, but here are the 2017 starts some of the relevant players in the discussion are off to: http://i.imgur.com/EryrclM.jpg In addition to the 'vs. LHP' struggles each team is having, it's interesting to note that each team has thrown 4+ different players into left field already this season. I'm sure both would value having an everyday player fill that spot.
  19. brewerfan82
    I can see how you feel that way. However, for me, it will be a relief as it will finally signal the end of the Melvin era. That darn Melvin-era. With his darn teams built with the likes of Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Lucroy, Gomez, Sabathia, Greinke, Sheets, Gallardo, and two playoff appearances after 14 consecutive non-winning seasons and 25 years of never making the post-season. I get what you're saying, but growing up with those 90's Brewer teams, it's very difficult for me to not be grateful for what he did here.
  20. brewerfan82
    History shows otherwise: Small sample and I would love to have the time to go through a larger sample, but there are plenty of reasons to expect aging to result in a decline, it's inevitable. That last year (the one where we are most likely to need a highly productive player), could be a doozy. There are always exceptions, but generally, highly productive and consistent players of his stature, have shown a decline starting at his age and it would be foolish to assume otherwise, especially when we're not in a position to compete during most of the remainder of his contract.
  21. brewerfan82
    I do. I think he's about 140 gamer, .875-.900 ops guy over the rest of his contract. He's been too consistent for too long for me to think otherwise. Now could injury derail him. Sure. But it can with anyone. But simply aging to his mid 30's doesn't scream decline to me for a hitter like him. He's had 1 season with an OPS over .870 in the past 4 years and you think there's no evidence to support he won't be an .875-.900 OPS guy for the rest of his career?
  22. brewerfan82
    It's only been 8 games. They're still only 4-4. And they're still projected by FanGraphs to be the worst team in baseball this year (http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings). Nice thinking outside the box though! And with that said, their GM did trade for Kemp a couple years ago for fun.
  23. brewerfan82
    All players go through ugly stretches, he had similar stretches in last year's campaign (including to open the season): April 4-10: 8 Ks in 17 ABs (47% K rate) June 28 - July 5: 15 Ks in 31 ABs (48%) August 12-19: 13 Ks in 27 ABs (48%) September 11-18: 12 Ks in 26 ABs (46%) Even the good ones go through stretches: Mike Trout August 4-15: 16 Ks in 30 ABs (53%) Manny Machado May 21-29: 14 Ks in 30 ABs (47%) Nolan Arenado June 27 - July 2: 10 Ks in 22 ABs (45%) Kris Bryant July 30 - August 5: 10 Ks in 21 ABs (48%) A bad 2 series stretch is way too small to draw many conclusions from. Doesn't hurt to take notice, but I wouldn't hit the panic button yet.
  24. brewerfan82
    Domingo Santana is a 24 year old with 19 HRs and a .236/.331/.419/.750 batting line in 432 MLB at bats. Ryan Cordell is a 25 year old, who as a 24 year old last year hit 19 HRs with a .264/.319/.484/.803 batting line in 405 AA at bats. Just sayin'...
  25. brewerfan82
    Let's hope seeing a pitcher with 115 starts under his belt gets the offense back on track! Go Crew!
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