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brewerfan82

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Everything posted by brewerfan82

  1. brewerfan82
    Yeah, I don't agree with the timeline reasons for taking players in the lower minors rather than the upper minors. If that was the case, then we should be looking to get rid of guys like Arcia too. The goal is to amass as much controllable talent as possible. We want those potential 6 years of pre-FA controllability and we want it in the form of as much talent as possible regardless of when they're expected to reach the majors. Having a constant stream of talent rather than a pre-defined window of talent seems to be part of Stearn's plan. So if teams are willing to give up higher talent or more talent lower in the minors, then we're willing to assume that risk.
  2. brewerfan82
    Where are people getting this idea that high A players are 4-6 years away from the majors, but AA players are knocking on the doorstep?
  3. brewerfan82
    Sorry if that was confusing, those are his OBP/SLG/OPS splits
  4. brewerfan82
    If Gallo's in the deal, with Fielder out for the season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carter thrown into the deal as well.
  5. brewerfan82
    Branyan had a .351/.526/.878 line with the Brewers and a .329/.485/.814 for his career. I would definitely take 5+ pre-free agent years of that.
  6. brewerfan82
    If it's a playing time issue, I don't know what the Brewers can do to appease him. However, if it's a money issue, I guess the Brewers could offer to restructure his deal for 2017 to pay him more and then send the difference along with him to Cleveland so the Indians don't have to pay the extra amount. Of course then I think the Brewers would want something more back in return since they're giving up more. Maybe they can somehow twist this into a way to get McKenzie in the deal. Basically tell the Indians they can get Lucroy to agree to a deal by covering extra money on a restructured contract, but they need McKenzie added to the mix to make it worth it. A deal doesn't get done without the Brewers adding from their end, so if Cleveland doesn't accept it, they don't get Lucroy. Wishful thinking I'm sure, but it would be a fun way to end up with a nicer deal in the long run!
  7. brewerfan82
    TDA + Nimmo + anything is definitely better than the comp pick. Brewer comp picks since 2008 include: Jake Odorizzi, Even Frederickson, Kentrail Davis, Kyle Heckathorn, Mitch Haniger and Nathan Kirby. Would you rather spin a wheel and get just one of those guys more than the package the Mets reportedly have out there? That said, I can't imagine that's the best offer out there at this time, but saying it'd be better to take the comp pick seems to be really overvaluing comp picks.
  8. brewerfan82
    I know the Nationals need a closer, so Jeffress could be of interest, but I'm not sure adding quantity is going to really help improve the rest of their bullpen. That said, maybe this is where a Jeffress/Braun package could be figured out for a really nice haul. Figure out a way to send Braun + Jeffress + $$ in exchange for Giolito + Robles + ?. Then send a Lucroy/Smith package to the Indians for Zimmer + Mejia + McKenzie + ?. I can dream right?
  9. brewerfan82
  10. brewerfan82
    Yeah, I think the Braun market is a little opposite of what normally happens. He's probably the best outfielder available, however, because of his contract, no-trade clause, etc., teams are probably targeting less complicated/expensive outfielders first. We may start hearing more on him being connected with teams that lost out on Bruce once he's traded.
  11. brewerfan82
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ranking-prospects-traded-deadline/#P7BLsMiPbKpbXZSS.97 Perfect! Great find. So the Phillies got 3 back for 3.5 years of Hamels and no one else was traded for more than 1 top 100 prospect. So getting a couple for arguably this year's most valuable trade chip should be within reach. The other top prospects to move were for guys like Cueto, Price, and Tulowitzky, so I'm not sure that netting one for any of our relievers is in the cards, but we'll see!
  12. brewerfan82
    Does anyone have a list of top 100 prospects (at the time) that were traded last year? Technically Phillips was the only one we got for Gomez/Fiers right? Santana was fringe and had graduated off the list already and Hader wasn't there yet, correct? I have a feeling it's pretty rare to actually get multiple guys in the top 100 (most teams max out at only having 5 available to give to start with), but I'd be interested in seeing how often it happens and for who it's happened.
  13. brewerfan82
    Thank goodness. It was a long leash, but I feel much better, and less crazy, seeing them finally do something about it.
  14. brewerfan82
    And the inning ends on Villar getting thrown out trying to steal 3rd with 2 outs and Lucroy up to bat... I don't understand why no one on this team is doing anything about this.
  15. brewerfan82
    It's possible, here's a recent MLBTradeRumors article about the Braves wanting to trade for a catcher this month and Lucroy being a possibility: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/braves-to-look-for-2017-starting-catcher-on-trade-market.html
  16. brewerfan82
    Definitely agree that I'd rather have Braun in the playoffs and get your point since Bruce is a streaky hitter, but he's been no slouch there either with a career post-season OPS of .877. He's also having a great season (.889 OPS with 23 HRs), is owed about $74m less than Braun, has been healthier than Braun, is 3 years younger than Braun, doesn't have the PED issue attached to him, and will cost less in prospects than Braun. Between his lower risk and fewer complications in obtaining him, it's not surprising there has been more speculation around his trade possibilities.
  17. brewerfan82
    Ha, great minds FV
  18. brewerfan82
    The problem is they don't need to get Lucroy to improve their catching situation. If they don't want to give up their top prospects, their catching has been so bad they could target a lesser talent and still be an improved team (both Vogt and Norris have been listed as possible trade candidates). They've played well despite having a hole in their lineup all year, so they could very well decide not to mortgage their future and still improve an obvious need on their team without getting Lucroy.
  19. brewerfan82
    This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever. So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score? Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line: .375 .703 .675 1.378 Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy. Wait... so in the situation we're talking about, the team is down by 5 in the 9th inning with the bases loaded... 3-0 hitters are able to draw a walk (which requires not swinging) 90% of the time, which would score a run and bring the tying run to the plate. But you want to swing, which only results in a hit 40% of the time, because it might result in an extra base hit, which would still result in the tying run coming to the plate? And you even mention that if they take a strike on 3-0, they still will have a great batting line with a 3-1 count. Explain again why you're advocating swinging on a 3-0 count in this situation and saying it's "the definition of stupid" not to?
  20. brewerfan82
    Except a hitter not being able to make split second decisions well on pitches being thrown at different spots, speeds, curves, etc., isn't quite the same as a player having time before a play even begins to know that he doesn't need to get to 3rd base. It would be more like a hitter with a 3-0 count, with the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game swinging at the next pitch. You just don't do it, unless you're really REALLY sure you're going to get a hit.
  21. brewerfan82
    Yeah, starting Garza yesterday maximizes the number of starts he gets before the trade deadline. A lot of people think he has no trade value, which may be true, but the only way he has a chance of having any value is if he strings together a few good starts and this gives him the most chances to do that. I'm sure this will extend into August when he'll easily pass through waivers, but if he doesn't show any signs of improvement by the end of the month I wonder if they'll just cut ties and move one of the younger guys into his spot for the final month of the season.
  22. brewerfan82
    I wouldn't call him a moron, but it really is frustrating to see him do this repeatably. I'm in the group that disagrees with him even attempting a stolen base in that situation, and while I think it's exciting to have the major league leader in steals, plays like that ruin it. It makes it seem like he's doing it just to pad that stat, which makes it even more irritating. I can't imagine the coaching staff thinks it's worth trying to advance from 2nd to 3rd with 2 outs, and on a stolen base it's so premeditated I can't fathom Villar doesn't understand that there's 2 outs and it's ill advised to risk taking that base at that time. So why does it keep happening? Does he and/or the coaching staff really just not care that he keeps taking an unnecessary risk in those situations??
  23. brewerfan82
    I think a lot of people underestimate what it'd be like being an athlete. If I had a family (or even with just friends or people I care about in general) and I had to attend 3-day work conferences in different cities twice a week for 6 months, I could see that being pretty taxing on relationships and difficult to cope with for extended periods of time. I understand the perks and money in being an athlete are extremely generous, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't put a strain on personal relationships with family members and loved ones while you're away that long.
  24. brewerfan82
    Building on how bad only getting a comp pick for Lucroy would be, here are some draft results from recent years: - 2015 Comp Picks (picks 27-36) : 1 current Top 100 player (#95), 0 players have made the majors - 2014 Comp Picks (picks 28-34) : 3 current Top 100 players (#63, #70, #94), 0 players have made the majors - 2013 Comp Picks (picks 27-33) : 1 current Top 100 players (#32), 1 player has made the majors - 2012 Picks 27-36 (diff. format) : 2 current Top 100 players (#13, #15), 5 players have made the majors - 2011 Picks 27-36 (diff. format) : 1 current Top 100 players (#30), 5 players have made the majors Not the most solid breakdown (the timing of when prospects get drafted to when they should be seen at the peak of their prospect status, etc., isn't shown super well here), but it's a quick and dirty way to see that you've got probably less than a 50% chance of getting a top 100 prospect at that point, and maybe a 50% chance of getting a guy that makes the majors and that doesn't mean they were any good when they got there (7 of those 11 players that have made the majors have a career WAR of 0.6 or less). So even getting 1 prospect back in a trade that's already in the top 100 is probably significantly better than taking a chance on a comp pick. Since we're talking about multiple top 100 players including ones in the top 50, I think it would be incredibly bad to miss on this opportunity.
  25. brewerfan82
    Great post! It doesn't matter if you're an aggressive baserunner or not, you should know before a play even starts that with two outs it doesn't help much getting to 3rd instead of 2nd, *especially* if you have speed. That's why it's frustrating. It shows the player isn't even thinking about the situation, just blindly trying to grab an extra base when it barely helps. So when Villar gets thrown out at 3rd 5 times with 2 out (not sure if that stat earlier was with 2 outs or just in general), it means he better have taken 3rd successfully 40 other times to *maybe* even it out. All that said, I really like Villar, it just seems preventable when all it takes is a second to note the situation beforehand. It'd be like a first baseman constantly trying to throw guys out at home for the final out of an inning instead of just stepping on the bag.
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