brewerfan82

I'd say there's a pretty good chance Perez will get starts at 3rd against lefties, but it has more to do with "cuz he's a righty and Shaw's a lefty" than with anything they've "proven" at the big league level so far. Neither player has a huge sample size to draw from, but in their careers against lefties you've got: [pre]vs. Lefties AB HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Shaw 189 10 8 50 .249 .285 .476 .761 Perez 280 7 8 66 .254 .270 .421 .691[/pre] It's certainly a spot to get Perez some atbats throughout the season, but I think it's a bit premature to hold Shaw to a strict platoon at this point.

Of the four highest OPS teams in baseball last year only Boston had fewer than 1,100 ABs by sub .700 hitters (BOS with 577 ABs, COL with 1,247 ABS, CHC with 1,106 ABs, and DET with 1,874 ABs). So it's possible, I just think it's very unlikely. Maybe this shows that a .700 OPS threshold isn't low enough to draw many conclusions from. Each team has about 5,500 ABs in a season, so we're only talking about 20% of a teams ABs, how the other 80% breaks down is probably more informative of a team's total offense. Anyways, not trying to be combative, just curious and found it interesting to dig into a little

Yunnnniiiiiiiiii!!! Sorry, anytime I get to mention his name I'm jumping on it. Haha, good call. Even without his 556 ABs in 2011, that team still had about 1,500 ABs from other sub .700 OPS players. Craziness.

This is part of the process of simply giving guys a chance. Villar, Perez, Broxton, Pina, Guerra, etc. - good so far. Other guys were mediocre or outright awful. The nice thing is that we found quite a few keepers from the bargain bin. That's part of building the team into a winner. Of course, that means hundreds of ABs from Flores and Walsh and guys like that. But that's life. You don't win them all. I think we'll have a lot more of that this year - not as much - but still a lot of it. It's likely we'll actually see more sub .700 at bats this year than last. I checked the past ten years, last year we had 1,307 at bats by players with sub .700 OPS. That was actually the fewest in that entire span. We average 1,756 at bats by sub .700 OPS players each year, including an incredible 2,538 at bats in 2015 alone. Even in our playoff seasons of '11 and '08 we had 2,071 at bats and 1,692 at bats respectively by players with sub .700 OPS. It's easy to think that's a pretty low threshold and not expect new players to hit that low or for returning players not to repeat, but it apparently happens every year and a lot.

Agreed. There's no tough call right now as he doesn't have much value. I think the tough call will be if he actually does have a good season. With 3 years of control left after 2017, he becomes the kind of guy you're looking to add for our next run at that point. It's easy to say now that you want to trade him after a good season when his value is high, but many would have said the same thing about Villar before this year and now he's close to untouchable. I have a feeling we're holding onto Nelson for a couple years regardless of how he performs (he'll either not have enough value to other teams or he'll have too much value to us to trade).

Oh wow. I hadn't seen that in any of the articles I read. If that's the case, I would stay away. It'll be interesting to see if a team actually bites at that price, especially with the opt-out he wants.

But why would you assume that? I don't like it either if that's the case, but coming back from surgery why would he have any negotiating power to demand something like that? I don't think anyone would even give him a one year deal at that price (let alone a two year deal with an opt-out option in his hand, he has to give something back to the signing team to demand something like that). Since 2014 he's pitched 44 innings of 3.27 ERA, 1.46 WHIP ball. It's a total crapshoot for someone to think he's going to come back this year and be the dominating closer he once was, which means no one's looking to pay him too much to see what he happens to do in 2017. If anything, a team is grabbing him to get a year under his belt and see how he does in 2018. And this is why a two year deal is appealing to him. While he won't get as much in 2017 on a 2 year deal as he might on a 1 year deal, he'll guarantee more total for himself in two years. With the opt-out, if he happens to do well this year he can bank in sooner than later and if he doesn't he's got another year to get paid and bounce back. But I don't expect a contract that's two years with an opt-out option to be more than 5mil or so per year. There's just no reason for any team to do anything more than that. A team like the Brewers can take on a contract that's like that and not worry if he flops. If he's doing well, you flip him this trade deadline (making the opt-out moot) and if he does poorly, you see if he bounces back better in his second year. Maybe I'm off on that, we'll see what kind of contract he actually ends up getting, but I think it's premature to think he's going to demand a contract that's too much to be worth it for a team in the Brewer's position. I just think year one back from Tommy John is too risky for a contender to pay him much on a one year deal hoping he would produce for them right away.

I know the Dodgers want a second baseman, but do they really value Gennett (0.2 fWAR in '15, 0.1 fWAR in '16, 0.1 WAR Steamer projection for '17) at all? I don't really want to trade him, but I think if you're going to entice them by throwing in a second baseman you have to see if they're willing to give up a haul for Villar. Otherwise, I don't see the match with Gennett.

Just out of curiosity, I broke down the wild card era WS teams a little further: - One of the top 2 teams won the WS 31.8% of the time - One of the teams in the top half (other than the top 2) won the WS 31.8% of the time - One of the teams in the bottom half (other than the bottom 2) won the WS 18.2% of the time - One of the bottom 2 teams won the WS 18.2% of the time Overall a top half team won the WS 63.6% of the time compared to bottom half teams winning the WS 36.4% of the time. 22 years of data is probably still a fairly small sample size, but it seems like better teams do tend to have a better chance in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be opposed to this (assuming the return value warrants it obviously). If Stearns wants to make a deal happen, it puts him in a unique position to offer a package for a big bat and a second baseman (and even a pitcher if Guerra's included) without raising their payroll the next couple years (Braun + Villar + Guerra = ~$20m/yr, Puig + McCarthy/Kazmir = ~17-23m/yr). I'm not sure they'd be able to land a bat like Braun's once they trade whatever it takes to get Dozier. As for what would it take? It'd take a huge package coming back. If you're going to trade Villar you need to get close to the value back that you'd expect as if you'd kept him for another productive year, otherwise you keep him. In addition to Puig + Kazmir/McCarthy, I'd start with something along the lines of DeLeon, Calhoun, Buehler, and Smith. Ideally Bellinger would be in there too, I just don't know if he's completely off limits at this point. So it's more likely a combination of 2-3 other lower level prospects DS likes would round out the package. If adding someone like Guerra gets Bellinger included in the talks, I wouldn't be opposed to that either. It's a lot for the Dodgers to give up, but you're getting 4 years of Braun, 4 pre-FA years of Villar, and possibly 5 pre-FA years of Guerra, and you're not taking on extra payroll. For the Brewers you're getting your new top pitching and second baseman prospects, both with AAA-plus experience, another highly touted arm and another good catching prospect. If you somehow get Bellinger into the deal as well, that's possibly another top-20 prospect whenever the new rankings come out, and he fills a huge 1st base hole in the organization. Also, I still think you're buying Puig low, who could break out and return a nice package on his own. Braun's value is only going to go down from here (let alone our negotiating power with his 10-and-5 rights), and while some may see this as selling early on Villar, he could just as easily have a down year and everyone will be complaining that he was another missed opportunity to sell high with. Same goes for Guerra, who's age makes him even less valuable for the Brewers to risk holding onto. Not sure if I'm overvaluing our guys, but I thought this was an interesting idea and I think that's what I'd need to hear to discuss including Villar with a team like the Dodgers. I don't think Villar is a guy we need to move, but if we can get a guy like Calhoun (and a butt load of prospects) who will be able to take the helm in a year and hold fort until Diaz comes up, I can live with Scooter at 2nd for another year (in which we're not competing anyways). I'm not sure anyone's going to take Gennett off our hands, so in some ways, it may make sense to at least listen to offers for Villar. If you're blown away, go for it.

FYI - In case anyone else didn't realize this as well, it looks like those win projections were formulated on November 7th... (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/come-look-at-2017-projections-already/) So they were made before losing Thornburg and Maldonado, and adding Thames, Shaw, Bandy and Milone. Not sure that would change the projection much, especially with how poor the Thames projection is, but thought it was worth mentioning.

I'm not Braun, so I can't speak for him, but I think you are selling personal relationships short in your claim that there's "nothing to tie Braun to Milwaukee at this point." I moved to Baltimore 7 years ago because I was looking for a job and I knew one person there. They no longer live in the area, but I'm still there and a lot of that has to do with the people I work with and the people I've met since moving there. I'm happy having these people in my life everyday and if I left, I would be leaving those people and the comfort of knowing I have them around me. Braun's coming up on being in Milwaukee for 10 years. I'm sure in that time he's created similar relationships with people who live in the city and with whom he works. Yes, moving is a pain, but the reason most of us don't do it often is because we don't like moving somewhere where we need to reset and build up our social and support systems again from scratch. I don't blame him and wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't necessarily want to change locations if he doesn't have to.

Woah! This is stunning, The Baseball Cube still exists! I had completely forgotten about that site/alternative to BR.com! Nice blast from the past.

"The philosophy of building a sustainable playoff team is not a secret. You need to acquire, develop and keep controllable, young talent." - David Stearns Bandy's entering his age 27 year and is controllable through 2021. Maldy's entering his age 30/31 year and is controllable through 2018. Bandy's MLB offense isn't anything to wow you so far (.237/.283/.408/.690, 89 OPS+), but it's only been a small sample of 233 ABs, so there's room to grow. We pretty much know what Maldy is in his 1094 career ABs, and it's similar, if not a bit worse, to what Bandy's shown so far (.217/.299/.342/.640, 73 OPS+). Plus it looks like Bandy could be a nice threat to pop a homer here and there in the lineup. This probably isn't a star in the making, but we got 4 years younger, got a little upside, and gained three extra years of control at catcher. At worst, if he can continue to show he's serviceable, it's a really nice move by Stearns to help make sure in a few years we're not overspending on a veteran, backup catcher. At best (although I don't think he'll have the playing time to do so), he drops a 30 homerun/40% caught stealing season in there somewhere and we've got a nice commodity on our hands. Seems lofty, but he's already got 15-20 HR power and seems like the Brewers think he can add to that.

Yeah but not all franchises in the smaller markets NEED help staying competitive. A team that has winning records year after year or makes the playoffs doesn't necessarily need help just because they are in a small market. If it team goes back to sucking then you give them their pick back. But when we say the picks are to help smaller market teams stay competitive and then hand out the picks to the teams that are already more than competitive it seems to defeat the purpose of the pick. But why not. The MLB draft is already screwed up enough as is. Why not give out extra picks just because. Because it's not about making all teams equally competitive. It's about evening out teams' resources to create a more equal chance to become competitive. If two teams have the same resources, you don't need to penalize one for using their resources better and reward the other for using their resources more poorly.

I think the point is that it would be much more concerning if it were other things (PEDs or harder drugs or domestic abuse, etc.). Obviously it's not preferable, but this becomes a non-issue once he's on the 40-man roster and it's not like all 21 year olds that have partaken in smoking weed are addicts or idiots (outside of the fact that most 21 year old guys kind of act like idiots regardless), so I wouldn't be overly concerned that it's a long term problem. It's great if you've never done anything inappropriate or against the rules in your life, and it's easy to think that if you were in these guys' shoes that you'd be more mature because of the opportunities they have that they could be risking, but in reality, they're just kids like all of us once were and he's still in that age that a lot of us are still experiencing life for the first time without supervision, trying different things with our friends, and, yes, a lot of times doing stupid things. Most of us survive and grow out of it in time. But smoking some weed is really low on the list of things I'd be concerned about long term from a 21 year old.

Or he's selling high. Maybe he and the staff think Thornburg out produced his stat line last year. Exactly. Very few relievers become consistently very good year to year. Over the past 5 seasons, 29 relievers have posted 2+ WAR seasons. - Chapman has accomplished a 2+ WAR 4 times - Miller, Kimbrel, Betances, Holland, and Jansen have each accomplished a 2+ WAR 3 times - McGee, Melancon, Rosenthal, Davis, and Britton have each accomplished a 2+ WAR 2 times - And 17 other relievers have accomplished a 2+ WAR just once (incl. Thornburg) Stearns sold him high and for a nice return. He's not in the same class as recently traded relievers like Chapman, Miller, or even Davis. He would need to repeat last year's results for another 2-3 years to be in that discussion, which isn't likely. History shows that he's more likely to regress from a 2 WAR than repeat or improve on it, so now was the time to deal him. Furthermore, those thinking he can get in that class with another half season of work, that just isn't the case, especially if you're admitting he has health concerns.

For what it's worth: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18066579/a-sensation-korea-eric-thames-make-most-chance-milwaukee-brewers

Picking up Matt Ramsey in the minor league phase of the draft seems like an intriguing add. He's not young, but he's been pretty consistently a 2.00 ERA, 10+ K/9, low H/9, practically zero HR/9 (3 HR in 168.3 IP!) type pitcher throughout his career. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=ramsey002mat

Anyone know when to expect his full page newspaper ad thanking the city and fans for their support to come out?

If you include the AAA phase, they lost 7, while picking up 2. Oof.

Hopefully this results in the Nationals going all in on McCutchen, both removing him as an option for the Dodgers and setting the bar higher for a Braun trade.

Presumably Scooter gets moved now, so Shaw is replacing him in the lineup: [pre]162 Game Avg PA R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Gennett 582 65 12 57 6 29 103 .279 .318 .420 .738 Shaw 600 73 22 83 4 47 147 .251 .312 .442 .754[/pre] Both are going into their age 27 season, but Shaw has a fewer years of service time, has a bigger bat, is an upgrade on defense, fills a position of need, has less dramatic splits, allows Villar to move to 2nd full time, and lets Perez fill a super-sub role. Dubon looks like a very interesting prospect. Relief pitching is volatile. I like the trade. Let's see what we can get for Scooter, which in a way, will basically round out this swap.

Some pretty sporatic sample sizes, but here are some splits since 2012: [pre]MLB PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 578 19 .251 .322 .429 .751 vs LHP 200 10 .249 .285 .476 .761 2015 AAA Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 194 2 .258 .342 .361 .703 vs LHP 95 3 .232 .263 .347 .610 2014 AAA Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 223 9 .291 .348 .502 .850 vs LHP 90 1 .189 .253 .256 .508 2014 AA Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 96 7 .333 .458 .635 1.093 vs LHP 81 4 .272 .337 .444 .782 2013 AA Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 309 10 .217 .334 .385 .719 vs LHP 135 6 .230 .360 .415 .775 2012 AA Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 71 3 .239 .368 .479 .847 vs LHP 39 0 .205 .326 .333 .658 2012 A+ Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS vs RHP 256 9 .291 .403 .504 .907 vs LHP 100 7 .340 .432 .650 1.082[/pre] Seems like when he's given enough at bats, he's held his own against LHP, so I'm not sure I'd force a strict platoon on him right away.

Without looking it up, I'll bet I can make any regular starter on our team last year look great if I cherry pick the best 9 starts over an 11 start stretch . EDIT: Ok, I looked one up just for fun. Chase Anderson had a 2.96 ERA in his last 11 starts. 2.37 if you just take his best 9 of those. Genius response. You really got me there. Was Chase injured in ST missing the first 2.5 months of the season with barely any ramping up (unlike ST)? Now show me how Chase's numbers over his final 11 starts mirror his entire career. You can't EDIT: chase had a 3.28 ERA over his final 16 starts. Take away 13 of those where he gave up runs and it was 0.00 (see what I did here?) I'm pretty sure that was exactly his point...