TheAnalytics
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Everything posted by TheAnalytics
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If the season ended today, all 12 playoff teams would be at least 10 games over the .500 mark. No playoff position team is more than 8 games back of the best record. Crazy parity at the top boosted by some terrible bottom-feeding teams
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You get lost trying to find the Rockies site?
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Mears has an 84 xFIP- and 134 Stuff+ this year per Fangraphs, which I’m sure the Brewers are looking at before they worry about his ERA
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Upcoming Brewers milestones & noteworthy things
TheAnalytics replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since you have the spreadsheet handy, can you look at high water, low water marks since Attanasio bought the team? -
Angels (Detmer) vs Brewers (Burnes): 4/29/23, 6:10pm
TheAnalytics replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Dude has been doing this a decade. His best offensive comp through age 31 is Stan Musial -
Seems like the Pirates have between a one in six and one in four chance of ending up over .500 according to Fangraphs. Feels like they could have some things go right and sneak into the low-mid 80s. Hot start for the Crew has the division at a coin flip going forward.
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You have to think of it as “back of napkin”accounting, which is nice to have on any trade or contract spanning the entirety of the player population. As long as you know the assumptions going in and treat it as a quick and dirty estimate, the tool is awesome. For example, Hader @ $15m = ~2.5 WAR / season * 1.5 seasons * $10m / WAR - ~$21m in salary. All that seems more or less reasonable, even if you want to quibble with the win projection, market rate for wins, or the details of his arbitration case.
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I mean it is an automated model that takes in publicly available information and spits out a valuation for like 5000 players. It is pretty impressive for what it is, but there are going to be holes. Whether the public info is late on Ruiz or there are flaws in the methodology, clearly the market for Ruiz is higher than the model suggests. But the tool is still useful as a first approximation.
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Maybe not the place for this discussion, but it seems like there’s a misunderstanding of the WAR framework here so I’ll explain. I’ll use Hader’s current 16.2 IP, 0 RA, and 1.5 RA9 WAR (per Fangraphs) over 18 games and assume that a “replacement”/baseline reliever has a 4.50 ERA or so. This means that Hader has allowed 8-9 fewer runs than the replacement player thus far. If we randomly distribute those runs over the games that Hader has pitched in, sometimes we still hold on to the game because the lead is more than a run or the replacement player happens to have a clean inning, sometimes the replacement player blows the lead and we end up going to extras or losing. Imagine running this random run distribution thousands or millions of times. On average, the Brewers will have won roughly 1.5 more games with Hader against using the replacement pitcher. I’ll also say that 1.5 WAR through 16-17 innings is incredibly good! A reliever that puts up 1.5 wins over a whole season is a solid back of bullpen contributor and he’s done it in two months of work.
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Somewhere in that second tier of overall team offense seems pretty reasonable to me
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198 PA from last Friday including today and the team averaged 184 wRC+ to bring the team up to 109 through today’s game. What a run
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Brewers team wRC+ now up to 108… was literally 79 after last Thursday.
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Lord those are some ropes
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Brewers offense now up to 102 wRC+ lol
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I mean I like the Adames trade for the Brewers as much as the next guy, but they were making room for Wander Franco and Willy had been really cold before we made the deal. The Rays advantage isn’t as big as it used to be, but they still are quite a bit ahead when you look at the totality of their transactions. Just the fact that they compete against the three headed monster that is NYY/BOS/TOR (in terms of revenue and spending) is testament to their FO.
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If you like pitchers with 36% strikeout and 4% walk rates, this version of Eric Lauer is for you
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Not sure how deep you want to go, but this article is a pretty good breakdown on Lauer
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This smells like a thinly veiled question from a probability course ? If I get you a result by next week do I get an A?
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There were only 14 qualified hitters over .300 last year and only 32 qualified hitters over that mark so far this year, and the Brewers have none of them. With league average batting lines down to .231 avg against .238 last year, you can expect something like 10-15 hitters to end up above the .300 mark again. Unless Wong gets on a serious tear I don’t think we have anyone contact-oriented enough to get there. Urias could make a run at it but he will need to play almost every day on return to qualify and I don’t see CC pushing him like that.
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This is correct. Higher is better, and the values are park adjusted. If a player has a .770 OPS in a neutral ballpark and the league average is .700, his OPS+ will be 100 * .770 / .700 = 110
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Marathon, not a sprint. Get ‘em tomorrow.
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These are a little more reasonable than the PECOTA projections to me. Still, if you took an even blend of ZiPS/Steamer/PECOTA you’d probably get the best forecast possible. That would be something like 92 wins, 80% chance of winning the division, and 8% chance of winning the World Series. Plus, there’s no reason to think that the eye test doesn’t hold up to those. The team is solid to great. What a time to be a Brewers fan!
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FG Playoff Odds were released today - combining their custom depth charts and a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projection systems. They give the Brewers 91 wins and a 73% chance of winning the division (86% chance overall to make the playoffs)
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MLB has an issue regarding pitching dominance
TheAnalytics replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think y’all are overestimating the difference in ball size I am suggesting. The circumference would go from 9.15 in to 9.6 in and the weight would go from 5.15 oz to 5.4 oz. Sure, pitchers would be able to tell the difference and would need slight adjustments to their grips and deliveries, but they throw weighted and oversized baseballs to train velocity and command all the time without issue. Driveline offers a set of weighted balls with way more variation: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/product/driveline-leather-weighted-baseballs/?attribute_size=Red%2C+7oz+Baseball&gbraid=0AAAAADc6CMHet4Os8HqfkPsoylAJDZawu&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI0c-JqMm28wIVDmpvBB1JZgI_EAQYAyABEgL4evD_BwE -
MLB has an issue regarding pitching dominance
TheAnalytics replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
WAY to radical. I'd be completely against this. Really? Changing the ball 5% would probably decrease the MLB average velo by like 2 mph. The average fan wouldn’t even notice.
