Driving to and from Costco, I started thinking about this. Rogers has been blooped to death this season but that has happened before. In 2020, he had a .400 BABIP. This season it's .333 but over .400 over the past month or so. His walk and strikeout rate remain stable (aka. very good).
On the other hand, Hader has stumbled in a similar fashion over the same period. While driving, I started asking myself "what chance is there that Rogers outperforms Hader?" I put the number at 25%, then bumped it down to 20%.
Humorously enough, just minutes later I turned on the latest MKE Tailgate podcast and unsurprisingly (I tend to think similarly to those hosts a lot of the time), one of them commented that Rogers had a chance to outpitch Hader and put the number at 30-40%.
Personally, I think that's too optimistic because of Rogers' history of getting BABIPed. It's starting to become less data noise and weirdly more of an attribute he has. I'm not sure I've seen a good pitcher have a BABIP well over .300 three years running, even if all three were partial seasons.
So what odds do you put at Rogers outpitching Hader?