NBBrewFan

3 HR from a Tie GAME!!!

But he hit a HR yesterday. That usually get's you benched in CraigsWorld.

Mechanics, timing, bad back that doesn't effect running station to station, but impacts swinging.

Not based on a Platooning argument, but on a general argument that Hiura has 0.7 WAR/145PA and Cutch is 0.1/399PA. So Keston playing more (and almost all his benefit is vs. RH pitching) improves the Brewers. You can make a similar argument for Brousseau and LH pitchers. Both of those players getting more playing time over Cutch improves the offense. KestBro > Cutch

I celebrate the '82 team every day so I have no time for lesser accomplishments.

Well I should have included that to subset the data you should have a valid statistical reason. When Cutch was doing better through early July there was a sensible argument that he needed time to heat up, but it looks like right now that the outlier in his performance is June. It's been hot for July and August so the argument that he needed to heat up has contrary data from July 1 to yesterday that points to an outlier and not a consistent change.

Sure. You can present the data in any way that you want. I am just pointing out the the "Best hitter since June 1st" comment hides the fact that he's only had 1 very good month the entire year AND even with that 1 good month he is playing at a replacement level.

Would that be an "I told You So"?

Sorry. I thought facts mattered.

I'm sorry if my quoting of stats for ranges of dates was confusing. Let me try again (McCutcheon wRC+ (fWAR)): June 1 to June 30 = 157 (0.8) July 1 to August 5 = 102 (0.1) June 1 to August 5 = 127 (0.8) Now if you want to spread the very good June out, then why not include the horrible April/May, because June looks like an ISLAND. Edit: For those that aren't familiar with my previous posts on McCutcheon, here is more data: Apr 1 to May 31 = 60 (-0.7) Apr 1 to August 5 = 99 (0.1)

I guess summer is June 1st to June 30th.

He's also cooled off since his hot spell in June. His fWAR for July/August is 0.1, not that it will matter as they played him every day when he sucked in Apr/May.

I thought they got rid of revocable waivers and if we put him on waivers and nobody picked him up then we still have to pay his contract and he's a free agent. (might be confusing it with just the post-trade deadline everyone on waivers being gone)

Seems like just yesterday Detwiller was with the Nationals. Yeah 8 years ago.

The way this game is going we will see a lot of that "impoved" bullpen.

They couldn't do the ceremony BEFORE the 7:10 start? sheesh

40 year anniversary of the 1982 team celebration. Our moment in the sun!

Nope. He will get his medical bills paid for, but he is a free agent. No salary. The issue he is trying to point out to the MLBPA is that he basically has no income and can't work because he's injured. I guess he can get unemployment for some time.

My all-time how-did-they-do-that is the 2010 Packers. They never trailed by more than a touchdown the entire season! Really? How Did They Do That? In baseball would that be never losing by more than 3 runs? 4? 2?

I think he's a candidate to see an optometrist. It's possible he has an astigmatism or other issue with his eye that he can't see the ball in focus or as clearly from a left handed pitcher compared to right handed pitcher. Personally I have a left dominant eye where my focus appears to be dominated by my left eye, but when each eye is tested (with the other closed) I have better vision in my right eye. If there is a vision issue for Keston, he could twist his head slightly to the right when batting against a LH pitcher so that he has the same angle of view as a right hander or change his batting stance so he's angled a little for a LH (place his back (right) foot farther from the plate by a certain amount.

My bad. I thought the first time it was free, but they are doing this season as free?

If you have an apple device you can sign up for a 7-day free trial. I don't know if all the streaming/SmartTV devices offer the 7 day trial. You can also get 1-year of AppleTV free from T-Mobile (if you are a subscriber). There are also other ways as I have more than a year left on my subscription after the last free offer was applied. I haven't paid for it for more than a year, but can't remember all the ways to get it free (I stop reading after "1-year free" and just click on the link).

The strength of schedule (SOS) at Tankathon has the Brewers remaining schedule at #19 while the Cardinals is #29 (lower is easier) so that "appearance" is supported by data/modeling. Depending on how everything shakes out the 2nd place team in the NL Central could still be the #6 seeded (WC) team.

Is that a question or are you boasting? If that was a question, I believe it's available for iPad and Roku for sure. I am not sure about the smart TV, but they have listings you can get here (https://www.apple.com/apple-tv-app/) You just have to scroll down until your hand numbs then keep going for another 10 minutes.

The difference in strategies Exactly. If you simply think that the playoffs are a crap shoot then you would be inclined to prefer the sustained success model. I don't believe that it's a crapshoot. Most people rank teams by their 162 game season record and that's the basis for the idea that it's a crapshoot (I don't know how fangraphs or 538 bases their odds). The problem with that is there are a myriad of reasons why a very good/the best team over the entire season would end up with 93 wins while another team has 101. Injuries and schedule are 2 as is the team makeup for the playoffs compared to the regular season (trades/acquisitions). As we have seen this year, the Brewers have an advantage because of the unbalanced schedule and their competition in the NL Central. That difference could lead to multiple game swing in wins compared to a team that is better in talent in a tougher division. Simply ranking by regular season wins ends up leading to a misconception about the "rankings". Some teams have a really bad year for injuries and end up with a worse record than their talent when some of those players return for the post-season or the opposite, a team with a great record could have players with nagging injuries come playoff time that impact their ability to perform at the level they did during the season. Deadline trades and acquisitions clearly have an impact on team talent that only impacts the roughly last 60 games. The key to the Braves success last year was in the talent added at the trade deadline or in-season callups/injury. The other factor is that the regular season record often is the cumulative effect of most of the 40-man roster as teams have injuries, add/lose players at the fringe of the 26 man, etc. In the playoffs the bench and back end relievers/starters are not used as much as most teams go with the top 9 batters and usually a 3 or 4 man rotation of the best SP and a shortened bullpen. That needs to be part of the analysis as to how teams are ranked. The Brewers do well using that depth, especially previously with expanded september rosters, but that won't help in the playoffs. The playoffs are pitting the best teams so the talent level is closer so some of the outcomes can come down to chance (the most recent example was Daniel Murphy's error 7 years ago for the Mets). The Dodgers have had a long run of making the playoffs, but outside of the pandemic year have not won anything. What would happen if Corbin Burnes pitched like Jason Alexander during the playoffs? Probably what has been happening to the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw, He hasn't been horrible every game, but when your TOR starter is blowing up a game a series that's a big impact when you are playing a team with similar talent. But that is likely to determine 1 series, not every one and now with the expanded playoffs 3 series gets you to the World Series (2 for the 2 top teams in each league), which makes a chance driven outcome harder 3 series in a row. I met a statistician/data modeler through work that basically taught me there is some chance in everything that humans do, but there is a lot of activities that can be modelled with enough information those models are more accurate. Over drinks he told me that anyone who tells you anything in life (outside of games of chance) is all based on chance hasn't looked at enough data.