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Kyle Ginsbach

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  1. With the implementation of the universal designated hitter, and the mid-season departure of Lorenzo Cain, the Brewers have a gap open in the outfield. The Brewers will have plenty of options on the trade market, but what realistically makes the most sense? There are a lot of options available in the outfield market. The Brewers have room to get creative; they can make a splash for a star, or they could sign a solid platoon bat. Milwaukee isn’t the only team in need of another player to roam the outfield though. The market figures to be competitive, so the Crew needs to be decisive, and quick. The “Fit Level” shows how an incoming player would mesh into the Brewers, while the “likelihood” displays how realistic it is for that player to be acquired. A Duo of Young Orioles Outfielders - Austin Hays, Anthony Santander - Baltimore Orioles Hays Santander The Baltimore Orioles haven’t been contenders for a long time, and while they’re starting to make strides towards competing again, the O’s will be sellers in 2022 yet again. Some of Baltimore’s most enticing assets are their outfielders, namely Austin Hays and Anthony Santander . Both Hays and Santander have proven to be consistent offensive threats this year, and both come with multiple years of control. Adding either player to the Brewers would certainly add some offensive production, while the defense would be unlikely to falter. The Orioles have been getting calls for both for some time, but this is likely the deadline where Baltimore decides if the young outfielders are going to be part of their future. The 27-year-old Santander is under team control through 2024 and 26-year-old Hays for another year after that. So a lot depends on how close the Orioles think they are to competing in the monstrous AL East. Fit Level: High Likelihood: Very Low Although adding one of the young outfielders would greatly benefit the Brewers, there is a strong possibility neither player is moved, and if they are, the price will likely be too much for the Crew. The Other O’s Option - Trey Mancini - Baltimore Orioles A potential free agent in 2023 (he has a $10M mutual option), Trey Mancini has been quite the story over the past couple years, and might be the Orioles most sought after asset. Though most of Mancini’s time has come as the designated hitter, he’s played a handful of games in the outfield, and is a first baseman by trade. In 2022, Mancini has seen a bit of a decline in his power, but has posted good offensive numbers otherwise. Adding the 30-year-old would give the Brewers a boost offensively, and give open up some options with the DH spot. Fit Level: High Likelihood: Fairly Low Mancini is indeed the perfect fit for the Brewers, as he brings offensive legitimacy and defensive versatility. The market for Mancini will likely be intense, and it’s hard to imagine the Brewers will end up winning this sweepstake, but it's worth a try. “Benny Biceps” - Andrew Benintendi - Kansas City Royals Perhaps one of the more recent popular names to be thrown around, Benintendi will be a free agent for the first time in 2023. Though he hasn't been much of a power threat thus far, Benentendi still boasts a competitive slash line of .308/.372/.394, and a track record of a strong glove in left field. He has also found a knack for making contact, as his strikeout rate sits below 15%, which would instantly make him one of the more reliable contact hitters the Brewers have. As a pure rental, the 27-year-old shouldn’t fetch too steep of a price, but that could change depending on how competitive the outfield market becomes. Fit Level: Medium Likelihood: Moderate Though a trade for Benintendi would likely be cost effective compared to other deals, his decreased power numbers may be a cause for concern, and his on-base skills could still regress to his career norms. Still, his bat-to-ball skills are enticing for a team with high strikeout numbers, and his glove would be a major plus. A Resurging Veteran - David Peralta - Arizona Diamondbacks Although the D-Backs have outperformed expectations in 2022, veterans like David Peralta are figured to be flipped for prospects. Peralta is now 34 years of age, but is turning in one of his better offensive seasons in a walk year. Though Peralta is older in age, his advanced hitting metrics remain very solid, and surprisingly, his defense has been well above average. The fit for Peralta is reminiscent to Eduardo Escobar last year, so it makes sense for the Brewers and Diamondbacks to strike a deal once again. Fit Level: High Likelihood: Fairly High Adding a rental veteran bat with a good glove would certainly help the Brewers improve, and should help the Brewers retain more sustenance in the minor league system. Though Peralta would likely force the Brewers to play McCutchen in CF and Yelich at DH, Peralta’s addition is too great to not heavily consider. Another Vet - Charlie Blackmon - Colorado Rockies Charlie Blackmon still has another year after this one remaining on the 6-figure contract he signed in 2018, though his time in Colorado, and maybe the big leagues, might be coming to a close. Blackmon has been in a steady decline over the past few years, but his numbers suggest he may still have some good baseball left in him. His contract is not something the Brewers would be looking to take on, so they’d have to compensate for that in a trade. Fit Level: Low Likelihood: Very Low At 36, Blackmon is too old to be reliable, has spent his career in hitters paradise, and his contract is awful. Tyrone Taylor would likely be better than Blackmon at this point, so there’s no need to force this deal. The Major Splash - Juan Soto - Washington Nationals Juan Soto may just be the best hitter on the planet, and although he’s not performing up to his own standards this year, the addition of Soto would instantly make the Brewers contenders for their first title. Soto boasts an insane career slash line of .290/.424/.534, yet is only 23 years of age. Already owed 17 million in his second year of arbitration, talks of a contract extension have heated up between Soto and the Nationals. Though Soto has expressed a desire to test free agency in 2025, he's also stated he is open to other possibilities as well. The star outfielder would fetch a very hefty price, and in the Brewers case, would cost them more than a handful of their top prospects. Fit Level: Very High Likelihood: Near Impossible Assuming Soto is even available, paying the price of Juan Soto is going to be steep, no matter who’s calling. Obviously Soto’s body of work speaks for itself, and adding him would greatly improve the team, but a trade like this is an unnecessary risk for a team like the Brewers in the long run. The Division Rivals - Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates), Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs) Reynolds Happ Ian Happ and Bryan Reynolds are no stranger to the Brewers, and both have put up strong campaigns so far. Neither is a rental player, with Happ becoming a FA in 2024, and Reynolds not until 2026, so the Brewers would figure to part ways with 2-3 high value prospects in a trade. Both have also drawn significant trade interest among contenders of all tiers, and both could also end up factoring into their current clubs plan. Making a move for Reynolds in particular would be expensive, but could help the Brewers stay contenders for years to come. Fit Level: High Likelihood: Low While both could help the team now, and in the future, the Brewers should be careful to not waste time forcing a deal, as both the Cubs and Pirates likely would be hesitant to trade controllable assets to a division rival. A Bad Reputation - Tommy Pham - Cincinnati Reds Tommy Pham is a newcomer to the central division, but has made his name known. Pham has quietly turned in a nice season behind the controversy he’s stirred, and has a proven track record in the past. Pham is likely a half-season rental, as his mutual option would likely be declined if he reaches desired production. Fit Level: Low Likelihood: Medium With the Reds currently sitting last in the Central, they likely wouldn't mind trading a rental to the Brewers. Pham’s been solid this year, but his reputation should be a deal-breaker. Another Big Outfield Arm - Ramon Laureano Ramon Laureano recently finished serving an 80-game suspension, and while that isn’t what you want on your resume, the A’s center fielder brings other things to the table. Laureano has been average offensively, but he’s hit well against lefties, and has built a reputation for being an excellent center fielder. Laureano also comes with two years of control, something the Brewers have favored in the past. Fit Level: Medium Likelihood: Low Rumors have been particularly quiet on Laureano thus far, and while the team control is nice, Laureano would likely split time with Tyrone Taylor. Trading for a platoon bat can be beneficial, but it might not be the splash the Brewers are looking for. Struggling Star: Joey Gallo Joey Gallo's tenure in the Bronx has been bad. There's no other way of putting it. In what was supposed to be an ideal fit, the former Ranger has struggled putting the ball in play, and struggled to keep his starting job. If the Yankees are to move Gallo, It'll likely be in a trade where they benefit immediately as well. Gallo is a stellar defender and has major thunder in his bat, but is heavily prone to striking out, so he'd fit in with a Milwaukee team with the same problem. Fit Level: Very Low Likelihood: Low It'd be downright foolish for the Brewers to trade for Gallo considering his performance this year. Even at an ideal level, Gallo's strikeout issues would hamper the Brewers more than his power and glove ever could. Is there anyone from the list you'd like to see in MKE? Is there anyone I missed? View full article
  2. Jace Peterson has been around for a while. He’s a former top prospect who never truly panned out, and didn’t have a real home until he landed in Milwaukee. Now that he’s here though, Peterson has made himself more than comfortable. When Jace Peterson joined the Brewers as a free agent prior to the 2020 season, you'd be hard pressed to find any noise being made about the deal. Since then, Peterson has slowly grown into Craig Counsell's super utility role, where he firmly finds himself now. He plugs the holes whenever or wherever needed, and can mimic most of the lost production. Unlike other players classified as utility players, Peterson isn’t an everyday player who happens to be able to play multiple positions, he’s a bench player you can call on at a moment's notice. There are players like the Yankees DJ LeMahieu, a star who you can slide over to other infield slots in a pinch, but LeMahieu lacks the versatility of players like Peterson. The bulk of Peterson’s value comes from his ability to play multiple positions, but as fans may know, he provides value with the bat in his hands too. Peterson’s batting statistics - .236/.338/.381 - may not jump out at you, but he didn’t earn the nickname “On-Base-Jace” for nothing. His ability to lengthen plate appearances has caught the eye of fans, and it shows, as Peterson boasts a walk rate north of 11% in his career. And while Peterson isn’t known for the thunder in his bat, he’s popped 6 home runs so far in 2022, and gotten his fair share of clutch hits. Perhaps the most valuable part of Peterson’s game that’s blossomed this year is his defense. If you’ve tuned into games this year you’ve heard Brewer’s color commentator Bill Schroeder rave about the defensive value he’s provided the Crew this year. With the bulk of the playing time coming at 2nd and 3rd base, Peterson has quickly risen up the ranks of defensive metrics with playing time at both positions. His 6 OAA puts him near the top of the league with names like Tommy Edman and Manny Machado, and ahead of former Gold Glovers such as Harrison Bader and Matt Chapman. With players like the aforementioned Edman missing out on All Star votes due to their utility status, talks about a utility spot in the All-Star game have begun to pop up. Whether On-Base-Jace is deserving of that hypothetical spot or not, he's certainly deserving of some kind of praise. While Peterson might not be the best utility player in the business, he might be the best kept secret among them. View full article
  3. When Jace Peterson joined the Brewers as a free agent prior to the 2020 season, you'd be hard pressed to find any noise being made about the deal. Since then, Peterson has slowly grown into Craig Counsell's super utility role, where he firmly finds himself now. He plugs the holes whenever or wherever needed, and can mimic most of the lost production. Unlike other players classified as utility players, Peterson isn’t an everyday player who happens to be able to play multiple positions, he’s a bench player you can call on at a moment's notice. There are players like the Yankees DJ LeMahieu, a star who you can slide over to other infield slots in a pinch, but LeMahieu lacks the versatility of players like Peterson. The bulk of Peterson’s value comes from his ability to play multiple positions, but as fans may know, he provides value with the bat in his hands too. Peterson’s batting statistics - .236/.338/.381 - may not jump out at you, but he didn’t earn the nickname “On-Base-Jace” for nothing. His ability to lengthen plate appearances has caught the eye of fans, and it shows, as Peterson boasts a walk rate north of 11% in his career. And while Peterson isn’t known for the thunder in his bat, he’s popped 6 home runs so far in 2022, and gotten his fair share of clutch hits. Perhaps the most valuable part of Peterson’s game that’s blossomed this year is his defense. If you’ve tuned into games this year you’ve heard Brewer’s color commentator Bill Schroeder rave about the defensive value he’s provided the Crew this year. With the bulk of the playing time coming at 2nd and 3rd base, Peterson has quickly risen up the ranks of defensive metrics with playing time at both positions. His 6 OAA puts him near the top of the league with names like Tommy Edman and Manny Machado, and ahead of former Gold Glovers such as Harrison Bader and Matt Chapman. With players like the aforementioned Edman missing out on All Star votes due to their utility status, talks about a utility spot in the All-Star game have begun to pop up. Whether On-Base-Jace is deserving of that hypothetical spot or not, he's certainly deserving of some kind of praise. While Peterson might not be the best utility player in the business, he might be the best kept secret among them.
  4. Devin Williams is an integral part to the Brewers pen, but is the Brewers set-up man behind the 'airbender' getting the credit he deserves? When the 2020 season finally began, nobody knew what to expect. When it came to the awards, people knew the 60-game slate might yield some unexpected results. José Abreu unexpectedly won the AL MVP, and Marlins skipper Don Mattingly took home the NL Manager of the Year award with his upstart Marlins club. Easily the biggest surprise of the year though, was the Brewers Devin Williams taking home the NL Rookie of the Year award over the early season favorite Gavin Lux. In case you’re unfamiliar with the masterclass Williams put on in 2020, here are some of the numbers he posted in the shortened season. 27 IP 0.33 ERA 0.86 FIP 53 SO 1375 ERA+ Williams' historical season may have put up some mind bending numbers, but that wasn’t the only thing Williams was bending. The primary reason behind his success was his changeup, which was appropriately dubbed the 'airbender.' Whether the airbender was an ode to the critically acclaimed Avatar: The Last Airbender, or if it was just a clever nickname from Pitching Ninja’s Rob Friedman, it didn’t really matter. What mattered was the results. The 2850 spin rate of the airbender helped generate an insane 61.1% whiff rate, and in just 60 games, it became the most unhittable pitch the league had to offer. To throw the pitch, Williams grips the ball similarly to a circle change, but there’s a catch. His Middle and Ring Finger are the only 2 fingers that have a real grip on the baseball. His pinky, pointer, and thumb all just lightly touch the ball for some extra stability. When Williams throws the pitch, the motion he makes with his wrist resembles the motion of a screwball, giving it the unique airbender quality. The Airbender Grip Williams' first full season wasn’t anywhere near as dominant as his first one, as he started slow and struggled a bit with his command. The airbender has around 17 inches of break when Williams throws it, meaning on some nights, the command escaped him. When he was unable to locate the airbender, he only had a fastball to rely on, which greatly increased the hitters chances of success. Still, Williams turned in a great season as the Brewers 8th inning reliever, posting a ERA of 2.82 and striking out over 14 batters every 9 innings he pitched. In 2022 Williams started the same way he did in 2021. He had added a new cutter, but he still didn’t quite have his command, and his first handful of outings it showed. As the season has progressed, he has more than settled in. He’s looking more like the 2020 version of himself, with his last 18 appearances (as of 6/25) being scoreless. His baseball savant page from this year might be the prettiest in the big leagues too. Once again, Williams looks near un-hittable. Via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/29/22 With less than a month before the MLB sends its All-Stars to Los Angeles, it’s that time where fans begin to clamor about who’s going to represent their respective teams. Both Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader have been brilliant so far, but there may not be a Brewer more deserving than Devin Williams. He’s still looking for his first bid, and 2022 is the perfect time to send Williams and the airbender to Los Angeles. View full article
  5. When the 2020 season finally began, nobody knew what to expect. When it came to the awards, people knew the 60-game slate might yield some unexpected results. José Abreu unexpectedly won the AL MVP, and Marlins skipper Don Mattingly took home the NL Manager of the Year award with his upstart Marlins club. Easily the biggest surprise of the year though, was the Brewers Devin Williams taking home the NL Rookie of the Year award over the early season favorite Gavin Lux. In case you’re unfamiliar with the masterclass Williams put on in 2020, here are some of the numbers he posted in the shortened season. 27 IP 0.33 ERA 0.86 FIP 53 SO 1375 ERA+ Williams' historical season may have put up some mind bending numbers, but that wasn’t the only thing Williams was bending. The primary reason behind his success was his changeup, which was appropriately dubbed the 'airbender.' Whether the airbender was an ode to the critically acclaimed Avatar: The Last Airbender, or if it was just a clever nickname from Pitching Ninja’s Rob Friedman, it didn’t really matter. What mattered was the results. The 2850 spin rate of the airbender helped generate an insane 61.1% whiff rate, and in just 60 games, it became the most unhittable pitch the league had to offer. To throw the pitch, Williams grips the ball similarly to a circle change, but there’s a catch. His Middle and Ring Finger are the only 2 fingers that have a real grip on the baseball. His pinky, pointer, and thumb all just lightly touch the ball for some extra stability. When Williams throws the pitch, the motion he makes with his wrist resembles the motion of a screwball, giving it the unique airbender quality. The Airbender Grip Williams' first full season wasn’t anywhere near as dominant as his first one, as he started slow and struggled a bit with his command. The airbender has around 17 inches of break when Williams throws it, meaning on some nights, the command escaped him. When he was unable to locate the airbender, he only had a fastball to rely on, which greatly increased the hitters chances of success. Still, Williams turned in a great season as the Brewers 8th inning reliever, posting a ERA of 2.82 and striking out over 14 batters every 9 innings he pitched. In 2022 Williams started the same way he did in 2021. He had added a new cutter, but he still didn’t quite have his command, and his first handful of outings it showed. As the season has progressed, he has more than settled in. He’s looking more like the 2020 version of himself, with his last 18 appearances (as of 6/25) being scoreless. His baseball savant page from this year might be the prettiest in the big leagues too. Once again, Williams looks near un-hittable. Via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/29/22 With less than a month before the MLB sends its All-Stars to Los Angeles, it’s that time where fans begin to clamor about who’s going to represent their respective teams. Both Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader have been brilliant so far, but there may not be a Brewer more deserving than Devin Williams. He’s still looking for his first bid, and 2022 is the perfect time to send Williams and the airbender to Los Angeles.
  6. Even with all the resources we have available now, the concept of luck in baseball might be impossible to determine. A lot of the formulas, numbers, and statistics that are floating around are only what you make out of them. The concepts and the ideas of the graphs and numbers looked at here are used interpret different things, but when combined they may help come to one singular conclusion. Have the Milwaukee Brewers been lucky? Or unlucky? Firstly, it’s important to determine what luck in baseball is. “Luck” can then be applied to actions or events where the end result wasn’t affected by the skills of the players. More importantly, it can apply to an outcome where the skill of the event or action doesn’t equate equally to the end result. Examples of this can include hard hit balls that turn into outs, or poorly hit balls that end up being hits. Luck can have to with whom the ball is hit to, when, and where the ball is hit. Sometimes batters can only hit the ball and hope. Let's start with the Brewers bread and butter, pitching. For their pitching, I’ll be using Fangraphs percentages (shown below) to help make inferences about Brewers pitching. The Brewers pitching staff has the highest Soft% (Soft Contact Percentage) in the league, which is a positive thing, because any ball batted ball that registers under Soft% is interpreted to generate the least amount of bases per plate appearance when naturally compared to Hard% and Med%. If batted ball events labeled as Soft% are more likely to be outs, you’d figure the Brewers staff would generate more outs, and therefore give up less runs when compared to the rest of the league. The Brewers also lead the league in K/9, eliminating the possibility that the Brewers are giving up too much contact to expect to be successful in the pitching department. The Brewers pitching staff also ranks bottom five in difference of staff slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage, meaning that the Brewers staff could be giving more extra bases than they actually should be too. Because the Brewers strike out the most hitters, and when those hitters make contact, it has the highest chance of being weak, you’d could reasonably assume the Brewers pitching staff has given up the least (or near the least) amount of runs. In actuality, the Brewers rank 9th in league wide ERA. If you extrapolate from all of this data, you could come to the conclusion the Brewers have been hampered by a bit of bad luck when they toe the slab. Numbers via Fangraphs, accessed 6/17/2022 Another way to extrapolate luck on the pitching side is homerun to flyball rate (HR/FB). This takes into account that sometimes pitchers can't control whether a well-struck flyball ends up on the warning track, or if it ends up in the outfield seats. The league average for HR/FB is 13.6% in 2022, and the Brewers sit at 13.3 percent, meaning Milwaukee's pitchers haven't been hampered by bad homerun luck so far. Furthermore, If your goal is to prove the Brewers have in fact been lucky, you could mention the fact the Brewers pitchers have the 8th smallest difference in XwOBA and wOBA, and both their Hard% and Med% are league average. This certainly doesn't prove they've been lucky, but you could argue they haven't been unlucky either. All of that can be a lot to take in, but the conclusion from this section is simple. If you want to conclude the Brewers pitchers have been the recipients of bad luck, you should probably point to the injuries that have plagued the Brewers over the past month. Oppositely, you could argue the Brewers staff has been benefactors of some luck, but it's a better conclusion to point to how elite some of the players who make up that staff instead. What about the Hitters? First, we can use Baseball Savant to compare the differences of the expected metrics and the traditional statistics. The Brewers have been quite literally average, ranking at either 15th or 16th in the league in batting average, slugging percentage and Quality of Contact. Not to mention, If you compare the Brewers to the MLB average in the expected hitting metrics (xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA) you'd see the Brewers have been nothing extraordinary, just average. Using these 3 differences, you could conclude the Brewers offense has been neither lucky or unlucky. Graph via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/17/2022 Then there's BABIP. Over the past couple years BABIP has been the poster child of bad batted ball luck. If you're unfamiliar, BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. Much like FIP for pitchers, BABIP eliminates the plate appearances that don't result in a ball being put in the field on play, giving you a batting average for batted ball events only fielders can affect. Batters with high BABIP are often assumed to be lucky hitters who are having more hits fall their way, while players with low BABIP are often assumed to getting hits taken away from them at a higher rate than normal. The problem with BABIP is it doesn't account for how well the ball is struck, or where it is hit. BABIP isn't completely skill dependent as well, as good players often have high BABIP, and good pitchers often have low BABIP against. If you're a believer in BABIP, the Brewers team BABIP is .283, good for 25th best in the league. By those standards alone, the Brewers offense has been pretty unlucky. If you want to conclude anything based on luck about the Brewers offense, I'd refrain from making conclusions about the group as a whole, and implore you to take deeper looks into individual players. Players like Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, and Omar Narváez have larger discrepancies in their metrics than any team ever will. Lastly, I'd be hard pressed not to mention some of the formulas that have been developed that try to quantify luck in baseball. One of the more well-known is the Pythagorean expectation (See below) developed by Bill James, whose name is tied to the early use of Sabermetrics. The theorem has been well refined, as often teams only vary from their expected win totals by a few games by season end. Using the Pythagorean expectation to measure luck isn't really its whole purpose, so drawing conclusions about luck won't be featured here. Another formula created to measure luck is cluster luck. This is the concept that teams have little control over how their hits are clustered together. If you're not one to believe in timely hitting, then the Brewers cluster luck statistics rank them 7th in the league, meaning they've been quite lucky in that department. However, it is worth mentioning that 2 teams in the NL Central, both the Cubs and Cardinals are ranked higher than the Brewers at the moment. To some, maybe this conclusion is anticlimactic. There was no firm statement on what to make of the Brewers luck. Truthfully, baseball is too far into season for any of these metrics and numbers to have small enough sample sizes to the point of making any logical conclusion about luck. It doesn't mean these numbers are unimportant or meaningless however. Luck will even out over the course of a season, but on a game-to-game basis, you can really see some of these obscure numbers take effect.
  7. The Brewers feature some of the best professional baseball players in the world. They've spent seasons perfecting their craft in front of fans eyes, but sometimes baseball involves luck as much as it does skill. So what do the numbers say about the Brewers luck this season? Even with all the resources we have available now, the concept of luck in baseball might be impossible to determine. A lot of the formulas, numbers, and statistics that are floating around are only what you make out of them. The concepts and the ideas of the graphs and numbers looked at here are used interpret different things, but when combined they may help come to one singular conclusion. Have the Milwaukee Brewers been lucky? Or unlucky? Firstly, it’s important to determine what luck in baseball is. “Luck” can then be applied to actions or events where the end result wasn’t affected by the skills of the players. More importantly, it can apply to an outcome where the skill of the event or action doesn’t equate equally to the end result. Examples of this can include hard hit balls that turn into outs, or poorly hit balls that end up being hits. Luck can have to with whom the ball is hit to, when, and where the ball is hit. Sometimes batters can only hit the ball and hope. Let's start with the Brewers bread and butter, pitching. For their pitching, I’ll be using Fangraphs percentages (shown below) to help make inferences about Brewers pitching. The Brewers pitching staff has the highest Soft% (Soft Contact Percentage) in the league, which is a positive thing, because any ball batted ball that registers under Soft% is interpreted to generate the least amount of bases per plate appearance when naturally compared to Hard% and Med%. If batted ball events labeled as Soft% are more likely to be outs, you’d figure the Brewers staff would generate more outs, and therefore give up less runs when compared to the rest of the league. The Brewers also lead the league in K/9, eliminating the possibility that the Brewers are giving up too much contact to expect to be successful in the pitching department. The Brewers pitching staff also ranks bottom five in difference of staff slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage, meaning that the Brewers staff could be giving more extra bases than they actually should be too. Because the Brewers strike out the most hitters, and when those hitters make contact, it has the highest chance of being weak, you’d could reasonably assume the Brewers pitching staff has given up the least (or near the least) amount of runs. In actuality, the Brewers rank 9th in league wide ERA. If you extrapolate from all of this data, you could come to the conclusion the Brewers have been hampered by a bit of bad luck when they toe the slab. Numbers via Fangraphs, accessed 6/17/2022 Another way to extrapolate luck on the pitching side is homerun to flyball rate (HR/FB). This takes into account that sometimes pitchers can't control whether a well-struck flyball ends up on the warning track, or if it ends up in the outfield seats. The league average for HR/FB is 13.6% in 2022, and the Brewers sit at 13.3 percent, meaning Milwaukee's pitchers haven't been hampered by bad homerun luck so far. Furthermore, If your goal is to prove the Brewers have in fact been lucky, you could mention the fact the Brewers pitchers have the 8th smallest difference in XwOBA and wOBA, and both their Hard% and Med% are league average. This certainly doesn't prove they've been lucky, but you could argue they haven't been unlucky either. All of that can be a lot to take in, but the conclusion from this section is simple. If you want to conclude the Brewers pitchers have been the recipients of bad luck, you should probably point to the injuries that have plagued the Brewers over the past month. Oppositely, you could argue the Brewers staff has been benefactors of some luck, but it's a better conclusion to point to how elite some of the players who make up that staff instead. What about the Hitters? First, we can use Baseball Savant to compare the differences of the expected metrics and the traditional statistics. The Brewers have been quite literally average, ranking at either 15th or 16th in the league in batting average, slugging percentage and Quality of Contact. Not to mention, If you compare the Brewers to the MLB average in the expected hitting metrics (xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA) you'd see the Brewers have been nothing extraordinary, just average. Using these 3 differences, you could conclude the Brewers offense has been neither lucky or unlucky. Graph via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/17/2022 Then there's BABIP. Over the past couple years BABIP has been the poster child of bad batted ball luck. If you're unfamiliar, BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. Much like FIP for pitchers, BABIP eliminates the plate appearances that don't result in a ball being put in the field on play, giving you a batting average for batted ball events only fielders can affect. Batters with high BABIP are often assumed to be lucky hitters who are having more hits fall their way, while players with low BABIP are often assumed to getting hits taken away from them at a higher rate than normal. The problem with BABIP is it doesn't account for how well the ball is struck, or where it is hit. BABIP isn't completely skill dependent as well, as good players often have high BABIP, and good pitchers often have low BABIP against. If you're a believer in BABIP, the Brewers team BABIP is .283, good for 25th best in the league. By those standards alone, the Brewers offense has been pretty unlucky. If you want to conclude anything based on luck about the Brewers offense, I'd refrain from making conclusions about the group as a whole, and implore you to take deeper looks into individual players. Players like Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, and Omar Narváez have larger discrepancies in their metrics than any team ever will. Lastly, I'd be hard pressed not to mention some of the formulas that have been developed that try to quantify luck in baseball. One of the more well-known is the Pythagorean expectation (See below) developed by Bill James, whose name is tied to the early use of Sabermetrics. The theorem has been well refined, as often teams only vary from their expected win totals by a few games by season end. Using the Pythagorean expectation to measure luck isn't really its whole purpose, so drawing conclusions about luck won't be featured here. Another formula created to measure luck is cluster luck. This is the concept that teams have little control over how their hits are clustered together. If you're not one to believe in timely hitting, then the Brewers cluster luck statistics rank them 7th in the league, meaning they've been quite lucky in that department. However, it is worth mentioning that 2 teams in the NL Central, both the Cubs and Cardinals are ranked higher than the Brewers at the moment. To some, maybe this conclusion is anticlimactic. There was no firm statement on what to make of the Brewers luck. Truthfully, baseball is too far into season for any of these metrics and numbers to have small enough sample sizes to the point of making any logical conclusion about luck. It doesn't mean these numbers are unimportant or meaningless however. Luck will even out over the course of a season, but on a game-to-game basis, you can really see some of these obscure numbers take effect. View full article
  8. Willy Adames only appeared in 99 games for the Brewers last year, but without a shadow of a doubt, he was the team's best offensive player in the 2021 campaign. In case you are in need of a recap, Adames was dealt from the Rays to the Brewers in an early season trade which included Brewers relievers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen. With Adames now playing his home games at American Family Field instead of Tropicana Field, his offense took off, where he slashed .285/.366/.521 with a wRC+ of 135 in a Brewers uniform. His arrival also paid dividends for Luis Urias, giving Urias some much needed mental clarity, and unlocking Luis as a piece of a contending Brewers team. Oh, and he also received some NL MVP votes despite spending only 60% of his season in Milwaukee. Adames did all of this while quickly becoming a favorite among fans and his teammates alike, and without him, the Brewers might not have found themselves atop the NL Central at year's end. It’s been tougher for Adames in 2022 though, and there's no denying it. He has spent much of the season without looking like himself, and after an awkward slide in Miami, he found himself missing over two weeks of time on the IL with an ankle injury. He’s only hitting .200/.290/.467 in his time this year, making it safe to say 2022 hasn’t been the encore many had hoped for. Whether it's been the ideal season for Adames or not, there's still numerous reasons for optimism. He’s still been a plus with the bat despite his batting average sitting around the Mendoza line all season. He leads the Brewers in home runs with 11, is second on the team in RBIs despite him missing time, all while his OPS+ sits at 110, meaning Adames has been 10% better than league average. If the struggling version of Adames is still 10% better than league average, then it's safe to assume that better things may be to come. But can he be the spark the Brewers need right now? There are two places to which fans can look, starting with the recent 4-1 victory over Washington that snapped the Brewers eight-game losing streak. Adames carried the offense, driving in 3 of the 4 runs, en route to a victory over the Nationals on Sunday. If any player hopes to help carry a team, helping snap a losing skid is a good way to do it. The second place you can look into is the advanced metrics he's posted thus far. By using baseball savant, fans are able to see how players have performed with numbers provided by Statcast, are able to gauge how successful players have been compared to others, and use expected statistics to help with non-quantifiable factors, like luck. Statistics via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/13/2022 As a general rule of thumb for viewing baseball savant pages, the more red circles the better. For Adames, there's a lot of red appearing on his page. All of his contact statistics (Avg Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, and HardHit%) are in the 58th percentile or better, meaning when Adames makes contact, the ball has been hit hard. His expected statistics are what really jump out at you though. His expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) puts him nearly in the top 10% of the league, despite his actual .290 OBP, and his expected batting average (xBA) is in the middle of the pack, despite hitting a mere .200. If you had doubts about Adames' ability to hit to power, his expected slugging places him in the top 5 percent of the league. The other category where he fares incredibly favorably is in his Barrel%. For those unfamiliar with what a 'barrel' is, the definition from mlb.com states, "The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015." In plain terms, a barrel is a pitch that was crushed, and Adames is crushing the ball as often as anybody. If you're wondering why Adames hasn't seen any of the fruits of his labor with all of his hard contact, it can be explained with a combination of two things. Firstly, bad luck. You can safely assume with all of his expected statistics being average or better, than Adames has hit into some unfavorable luck. However, he also hasn't been making enough contact for his actual numbers to drift towards his expected ones. With both his K% and Whiff% in the bottom fourth of the league, it's clear that Adames has been missing pitches at too high of a rate. On the flip-side, even if Adames keeps striking out as often as usual, as long as he's hitting the ball the same way, he'll likely find more success. Another nugget of information worth mentioning is Adames' ability in the field. While the Brewers certainly don't expect a gold glove, him being such a plus in the field was part of the reason he was acquired in the first place. Statcast places him in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average, all while he's only committed 5 errors so far. While fielding metrics are far from perfect, being on the plus side of them is never a bad thing. Even if you want to throw fielding metrics out the window, it's safe to say he has passed the eye test playing shortstop too. With momentum going for the first time in over a week, and off day on Monday, the Brewers have a chance to regroup and look within for the spark offensively they need to regain the lead in the NL Central. They shouldn't have to look far though, as the embers of Adames' hot streak from the previous season are still burning, and it isn't going to take much fuel to get going again.
  9. The Willy Adames trade paid massive dividends for the Brewers in 2021, but can Willy be the spark the Brewers offense needs for the second straight year? Willy Adames only appeared in 99 games for the Brewers last year, but without a shadow of a doubt, he was the team's best offensive player in the 2021 campaign. In case you are in need of a recap, Adames was dealt from the Rays to the Brewers in an early season trade which included Brewers relievers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen. With Adames now playing his home games at American Family Field instead of Tropicana Field, his offense took off, where he slashed .285/.366/.521 with a wRC+ of 135 in a Brewers uniform. His arrival also paid dividends for Luis Urias, giving Urias some much needed mental clarity, and unlocking Luis as a piece of a contending Brewers team. Oh, and he also received some NL MVP votes despite spending only 60% of his season in Milwaukee. Adames did all of this while quickly becoming a favorite among fans and his teammates alike, and without him, the Brewers might not have found themselves atop the NL Central at year's end. It’s been tougher for Adames in 2022 though, and there's no denying it. He has spent much of the season without looking like himself, and after an awkward slide in Miami, he found himself missing over two weeks of time on the IL with an ankle injury. He’s only hitting .200/.290/.467 in his time this year, making it safe to say 2022 hasn’t been the encore many had hoped for. Whether it's been the ideal season for Adames or not, there's still numerous reasons for optimism. He’s still been a plus with the bat despite his batting average sitting around the Mendoza line all season. He leads the Brewers in home runs with 11, is second on the team in RBIs despite him missing time, all while his OPS+ sits at 110, meaning Adames has been 10% better than league average. If the struggling version of Adames is still 10% better than league average, then it's safe to assume that better things may be to come. But can he be the spark the Brewers need right now? There are two places to which fans can look, starting with the recent 4-1 victory over Washington that snapped the Brewers eight-game losing streak. Adames carried the offense, driving in 3 of the 4 runs, en route to a victory over the Nationals on Sunday. If any player hopes to help carry a team, helping snap a losing skid is a good way to do it. The second place you can look into is the advanced metrics he's posted thus far. By using baseball savant, fans are able to see how players have performed with numbers provided by Statcast, are able to gauge how successful players have been compared to others, and use expected statistics to help with non-quantifiable factors, like luck. Statistics via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/13/2022 As a general rule of thumb for viewing baseball savant pages, the more red circles the better. For Adames, there's a lot of red appearing on his page. All of his contact statistics (Avg Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, and HardHit%) are in the 58th percentile or better, meaning when Adames makes contact, the ball has been hit hard. His expected statistics are what really jump out at you though. His expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) puts him nearly in the top 10% of the league, despite his actual .290 OBP, and his expected batting average (xBA) is in the middle of the pack, despite hitting a mere .200. If you had doubts about Adames' ability to hit to power, his expected slugging places him in the top 5 percent of the league. The other category where he fares incredibly favorably is in his Barrel%. For those unfamiliar with what a 'barrel' is, the definition from mlb.com states, "The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015." In plain terms, a barrel is a pitch that was crushed, and Adames is crushing the ball as often as anybody. If you're wondering why Adames hasn't seen any of the fruits of his labor with all of his hard contact, it can be explained with a combination of two things. Firstly, bad luck. You can safely assume with all of his expected statistics being average or better, than Adames has hit into some unfavorable luck. However, he also hasn't been making enough contact for his actual numbers to drift towards his expected ones. With both his K% and Whiff% in the bottom fourth of the league, it's clear that Adames has been missing pitches at too high of a rate. On the flip-side, even if Adames keeps striking out as often as usual, as long as he's hitting the ball the same way, he'll likely find more success. Another nugget of information worth mentioning is Adames' ability in the field. While the Brewers certainly don't expect a gold glove, him being such a plus in the field was part of the reason he was acquired in the first place. Statcast places him in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average, all while he's only committed 5 errors so far. While fielding metrics are far from perfect, being on the plus side of them is never a bad thing. Even if you want to throw fielding metrics out the window, it's safe to say he has passed the eye test playing shortstop too. With momentum going for the first time in over a week, and off day on Monday, the Brewers have a chance to regroup and look within for the spark offensively they need to regain the lead in the NL Central. They shouldn't have to look far though, as the embers of Adames' hot streak from the previous season are still burning, and it isn't going to take much fuel to get going again. View full article
  10. For the last half decade fans and analysts alike have listed the Brewers bullpen as an area of strength, and potential catalyst of their success. Without much of a second thought, this expectation carried into the current season. The results have been mixed. But fans shouldn't worry. Prior to Wednesday's game against the Phillies, the Brewers pen was at 10th overall in both ERA and WHIP, and in that same area for home runs and walks surrendered. Statistically speaking, this may sound like business as usual for the Brewers. But if you had to pick two adjectives to describe the relief performances this year, both “strong” and “inconsistent” may come to mind. In terms of volume, manager Craig Counsell’s usage of the bullpen has been lower than most might expect, even with all the injuries to starters. In fact, they’ve only logged 200.2 innings as of June 8th, which places the Brewers bullpen usage in the bottom third of the league. Early in the season, the Crew took a big blow to the middle relief core when Jake Cousins went down with an elbow injury, where he currently sits on the 60-Day IL. Players like Jandel Gustave and J.C. Mejía (see below) failed to provide the value the Brewers hoped for one way or another, and neither currently find themselves on the big league roster. When more innings were demanded from the bullpen, Trevor Kelly and Peter Strzelecki earned unexpected call-ups, and produced undesirable results. Even Brewers veteran Brent Suter, who the Brewers have relied on in the past to eat innings, has been shaky, posting an earned run average north of 5. Unsurprisingly though, the backend of the bullpen has remained as strong as ever. Josh Hader has continued his historical dominance, converting 18/19 save chances, all while only surrendering runs in one of those appearances. And even though his outings have been stressful, Devin Williams and the aptly named “airbender” have continued to lock up the 8th inning. Even Brad Boxberger, the Brewers leader in innings the past season, has pitched well in his 7th inning role. Newcomer Trevor Gott has also turned in solid work at points. Is there any reason for worry here? Probably not. There truly hasn't been any real cause for concern. Injuries and bad relief appearances happen. And although the bullpen is still a strength, it isn’t in the same way it was 4 years ago. You aren’t going to see 5+ innings of scoreless relief anywhere near the commonality that there was 2018. The 2022 Brewers team can rely on their starters to go into the 6th and 7th inning, and shouldn’t have to rely on overwhelming depth. The strength isn't in quantity, it's in the quality. In case you need more proof, take a look at Josh Hader’s statcast statistics compared to his previous seasons. If you ever needed any proof of his dominance, these could easily serve as evidence for his best season ever. Statistics via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/08/2022 So, you can scratch the 9th inning off your worries. Heck, you can probably safely scratch off the 7th and 8th inning while you're at it, as both Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger's work over the past year and a half should speak for itself. If you do this, the big picture becomes clear. Whether it's Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, or Houser starting on any given night, if they can turn in 5-6 innings of quality work, the team is left with a maximum of 3 outs to worry about from the other 4 relievers in the pen. So you wanted to know what to make of the Brewers pen? I wouldn't worry, It's fitting right where it needs to. View full article
  11. Prior to Wednesday's game against the Phillies, the Brewers pen was at 10th overall in both ERA and WHIP, and in that same area for home runs and walks surrendered. Statistically speaking, this may sound like business as usual for the Brewers. But if you had to pick two adjectives to describe the relief performances this year, both “strong” and “inconsistent” may come to mind. In terms of volume, manager Craig Counsell’s usage of the bullpen has been lower than most might expect, even with all the injuries to starters. In fact, they’ve only logged 200.2 innings as of June 8th, which places the Brewers bullpen usage in the bottom third of the league. Early in the season, the Crew took a big blow to the middle relief core when Jake Cousins went down with an elbow injury, where he currently sits on the 60-Day IL. Players like Jandel Gustave and J.C. Mejía (see below) failed to provide the value the Brewers hoped for one way or another, and neither currently find themselves on the big league roster. When more innings were demanded from the bullpen, Trevor Kelly and Peter Strzelecki earned unexpected call-ups, and produced undesirable results. Even Brewers veteran Brent Suter, who the Brewers have relied on in the past to eat innings, has been shaky, posting an earned run average north of 5. Unsurprisingly though, the backend of the bullpen has remained as strong as ever. Josh Hader has continued his historical dominance, converting 18/19 save chances, all while only surrendering runs in one of those appearances. And even though his outings have been stressful, Devin Williams and the aptly named “airbender” have continued to lock up the 8th inning. Even Brad Boxberger, the Brewers leader in innings the past season, has pitched well in his 7th inning role. Newcomer Trevor Gott has also turned in solid work at points. Is there any reason for worry here? Probably not. There truly hasn't been any real cause for concern. Injuries and bad relief appearances happen. And although the bullpen is still a strength, it isn’t in the same way it was 4 years ago. You aren’t going to see 5+ innings of scoreless relief anywhere near the commonality that there was 2018. The 2022 Brewers team can rely on their starters to go into the 6th and 7th inning, and shouldn’t have to rely on overwhelming depth. The strength isn't in quantity, it's in the quality. In case you need more proof, take a look at Josh Hader’s statcast statistics compared to his previous seasons. If you ever needed any proof of his dominance, these could easily serve as evidence for his best season ever. Statistics via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/08/2022 So, you can scratch the 9th inning off your worries. Heck, you can probably safely scratch off the 7th and 8th inning while you're at it, as both Devin Williams and Brad Boxberger's work over the past year and a half should speak for itself. If you do this, the big picture becomes clear. Whether it's Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, or Houser starting on any given night, if they can turn in 5-6 innings of quality work, the team is left with a maximum of 3 outs to worry about from the other 4 relievers in the pen. So you wanted to know what to make of the Brewers pen? I wouldn't worry, It's fitting right where it needs to.
  12. There have been some frustrating stretches for the Brewers offense thus far in 2022, and no one has been affected more than the outfield core. Hunter Renfroe got off to a slow start before heating up (then landing on the IL), while both Christain Yelich and Andrew Mcuthchen have cooled over the past weeks, all while veteran Lorenzo Cain has yet to find his groove at all. Then there’s Tyrone Taylor. He certainly hasn’t been immune to struggles in 2022, but when his name has been consistently etched into Craig Counsell's lineup, Taylor has started to put up consistent results. Tyrone Taylor’s rise has happened faster than most fans might think. Ever since his call up in September of 2019, Taylor’s only logged 168 games, just over a season total of 162. The Brewers have always liked his tools, like his lightning quick hands at the plate, his raw power to left field, and general quickness in the outfield, but they've always found it difficult to save Taylor a slot in the lineup. This year, that problem is slowly beginning to fade. On a surface level, Taylor has been solid, but not great. He’s slashing .242/.294/.455 with a OPS+ of 108. This can be attributed to his first month of season, where he only posted 73 plate appearances in his time in-and-out of the lineup, and only ended up hitting a measly .195 without a homerun, and only a single walk. However, with Andrew Mcuthechen and Hunter Renfroe missing time, Tyrone has seen more consistent playing time in May where he's hit .264 with 6 round-trippers, and a WRC+ of 128. With all the Talent Tyrone possess, there's one key to his success that he has, and needs to continue to improve on. The Whiff, or as it's more commonly known as: the "swing and miss." Taylor's always been a free swinger, and this years its been no different. His chase rate remains in the lower third of the MLB, however, Taylor remains in the upper half in terms of K% and Whiff%. So long as Taylor remains diligent, and is able to put the ball in play, good things will continue to happen. Offensively, it might be a long season for the MLB, Brewers included. If Milwaukee is looking for someone to lean on it a tight spot, it would being doing an injustice not to throw Taylor's name in the pot.
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