Jake McKibbin

Given early returns, Turang and Wiemer may be cheapish to extend, and Wiemer especially could have a breakout.. Chourio may be difficult given the hype but it depends how he and Frelick perform once they hit the majors. If they struggle then a cheaper deal is on the cards, but you need some sort of risk factor on the Brewers to get a cheaper deal. If anyone becomes a big difference maker pre-extension, then they'll not accept a below market deal

Keston Hours two hits today Home run up and away after fouling off previous high fastball Walked when they tried to pitch him more inside Then the single to follow No strikeouts again...

Yelich's Noodles are better than that

We're coming up on six weeks of seeing Brewers rookie outfielder Joey Wiemer in action. It's been everything we expected, both bad and good. Let's take a closer look at how he's performed. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Joey Wiemer is a player who makes you love baseball. From his gangly running style, legs all akimbo; to the enormous hacks he takes at the baseball; to his refusal to take it easy down the first base line, this is a player who looks slightly less polished than most of his major-league counterparts. How could you not love his flying catches in the outfield; be drawn to each of his at-bats just on the off chance he gets into one; and even if he tops one on a routine ground ball to short, he has the wheels to leg it out anyway. On top of that, almost no one has run on him since the opening weeks of the season, with his quick release and cannon of an arm. Great Expectations While he is a player with huge four- or five-tool potential, he has had a few growing pains in reaching the majors. Coming into the season, we were a little less hot on him due to the meteoric rises of both Jackson Chourio and the hitting machine that was Sal Frelick, and also a slight slump in the middle of last year at Biloxi when he was struggling with a wrist injury. Prior to that, he had won the Brewers’ Prospect of the Year award in 2021, hitting 27 home runs with a .959 OPS across both levels of A ball. When he made the jump to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, he cut his strikeout rate considerably, from 30% at Double A to just 19.5%--a huge improvement considering there were concerns over whether he could make consistent contact with the size and speed of his swing. He also rediscovered his power stroke, slugging .520 over 174 plate appearances with six home runs, a triple and 15 doubles, to go along with a 12% walk rate. He was a bit under the radar coming into spring training, with most expecting him to be on the outside looking into the early outfield mix, but his quality defense in the outfield as well as his improving eye at the plate, and most importantly his right-handed bat, made the Brewers call him up just a single day into the season, after Luis Urias’s hamstring went out. In terms of his ceiling, it’s clear to see the amount of power he can generate, the speed on the base paths, the fielding and throwing arm in the outfield. There are questions over his hit tool, but this is a player who, when healthy, has hit over .270 in every level of the minor-league system. The sky's the limit for this baby-faced assassin, if he can make adjustments to major-league pitching. The Story So Far Early on in the season, Wiemer was getting by using his speed to beat out ground balls with regularity, with a lot of topped contact on fastballs and a complete inability to square up any sort of breaking pitch. Since then, he has struggled with a change in the pitching approach, and has been looking out of sorts at the plate, with an increasing propensity to swing and miss and a lack of consistency in his plate appearances. He hit much better against the fastball, whiffing on less than 20% of them, which is why he’s been fed a very steady diet of breaking pitches–45.8% to be exact. On these breaking pitches he has a batting average of just .167 and a slugging percentage of .208. However, he has recently started to make much more consistent hard contact, suggesting a change in approach and perhaps an adjustment to the extra break that major-league pitchers will have on their pitches. His defense, meanwhile, has been magnificent, grading out as slightly above-average in center field and an absolute weapon in right, with four defensive runs saved in total, and being in the 91st percentile for outs above average, 87th percentile for arm strength (which is furthered by how he throws without any momentum), and 78th percentile for outfield jump. The jump is particularly impressive given that his routes haven’t been great, but his reactions have been the best in the league. It's been consistently excellent and has almost assured his place in the lineup for a few months, given the injury crisis around him with Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick. His derring-do on the base paths has been incredibly fun to watch as well, with an average sprint speed of 29.1ft/sec, good enough for 21st in the league, going home to first in 4.23 seconds. He’s had five steals so far, being caught once while attempting a fairly reckless third-base steal, and also been caught trying to steal third on infield grounders that just weren’t an option. Part of the excitement is that you don’t quite know what he’ll do next, and his decisions on the base paths will improve over time, as well as his steal total if he can get on base just a little bit more often. Stand Out Stats - Wiemer has just a .390 OPS on the road compared to a 1.061 OPS at American Family Field - With runners in scoring position, he almost always puts the ball in play, with just one strikeout in 28 plate appearances. - With such a violent swing, he’s still only hovering around the league average in strikeout percentage, and 60th percentile in walk rates. - He doesn’t miss belt-high pitches, with just a 5.4% whiff rate. - Against left handers, who throw fewer sliders to him and mostly use fastball/changeup combinations, he has a 1.061 OPS The Deeper Look Wiemer’s struggles are shown in two simple graphics from Baseball Savant. As you can see below, his whiff rates in the bottom part of the zone are astronomical, a byproduct of his struggles with breaking pitches. Even when he does make contact, it’s mostly weak, topped balls, leading to the excessive ground ball rates you see below. When pitchers have kept their breaking balls down, he’s almost guaranteeing them an easy out. When they get ahead in the count, they’ve fed him a steady onslaught of pitches down and away, resulting in 15 of his 25 strikeouts. For further emphasis, he hasn’t gotten a hit yet against a sweeping slider. Quite simply, Wiemer hasn’t adjusted to the amount of break he’s seeing on these pitches, but it’s almost inevitable that he will catch up. His expected batting average against these is starting to creep up, from .063 just three weeks ago to now breaking the Mendoza line. He also needs to do a better job when he gets ahead in the count, and working the count to his advantage. Only eight of his plate appearances have ended with him ahead in the count. Christian Yelich has had three-ball counts in 38 plate appearances so far this season, Joey Wiemer has managed this in just 21. He could do a better job, perhaps, with an approach closer to what we’ve seen from Tellez so far, waiting on a specific pitch to swing at and consciously laying off breaking balls early in the count and sitting on higher fastballs or hanging breakers until he has to swing. Final Notes While his swing doesn’t look technically fit for major league pitching, he has remarkably fast hands, and it’s fair to say that so far, he hasn’t struggled to catch up to the fastballs. He does have small adjustments to make in his approach, and his eye at the plate will only improve the more major-league pitchers he sees, something we are already starting to see. Most of his slugging so far has come against offspeed pitches, to the tune of a .500 slugging (even before his home run against Tony Gonsolin’s splitter). Wiemer's talent is there for all to see, and while he could be an impact player similar to Kyle Tucker, his defense provides a very high floor for him to bring value to the Brewers as he learns on the job. It’s important to note how normal this is, Jarred Kelenic took 500 plate appearances before his ability started to show this season. If Wiemer can get it to click by the time the stretch comes around later this season, the Brewers will have one hell of a player on their hands. View full article

Apparently a big reason he signed with the Dodgers, despite better offers elsewhere, is the wonders their pitching lab has done with others in recent years. hasn't quite worked out for him so far mind

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/have-you-tried-turning-corbin-burnes-off-then-turning-him-back-on-again/ Really good fangraphs piece, spotted some technical change and suggested bashing Burnes over the head to reset him like a computer

In fairness, they've jettisoned Wong who has the worst Defensive runs saved in the league at -8 and has hit really poorly so far this season. It's almost already a win

And yet Urias will allow for replacement of Brosseau, whose errors have cost games so far this season, as well as being an above average bat. I fail to see how this isn't an improvement, as Miller has been okay as well but has shown no power at all

If anyone needs perspective, the tigers swept the Mets with Verlander and Scherzer starts, and then the rockies won a series against the mets to follow it.

If they can sharpen up his fielding abilities though, with his arm he could be a very viable third basemen, which drastically increases his value I can see why they're doing this in the minors, but maybe once he gets to AAA they'll reconsider has there been any improvement so far this season since he was butchering everything the first few weeks?

Davis might be an option, it depends how the Giants see next season as well, and what they'd get back, but I can definitely picture them selling at the deadline, or before with the Diamondbacks form and the way in which LA have picked up, plus the Padres have performed much better recently since Tatis came back, Grisham has been exceptional for them. Whether that's Davis or someone else, that remains to be seen but a trade like the Adames one where both sides get some talent major league ready would be possible for sure. Cron would be a back up for sure, and I really like how Rowdy's been playing, but given he'd be taking Luke Voit's and some of Winker's AB's I'd be okay with that, especially at the price of Cron. Escobar hit like a monster at the tail end of last season, and is slashing .286/.348/.714 over his last seven games, after a shocking start to the season, I wouldn't call him washed up just yet, and the veteran presence is always invaluable when you're losing games and injuries are hitting hard. I think it's understandable why they didn't when you go into a season with so many outfield prospects in the wings, but in hindsight this would have been brilliant. A career 129 OPS+ against lefties would be a big improvement, what would it take to get him from the twins do you think?

The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a slump for the last two weeks, in particular against any left-handed starter. Even against righties, they have struggled with hitting slumps from Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Brian Anderson, Brice Turang, and the lack of power from Jesse Winker and Luke Voit. It’s been a rough few weeks against weaker teams. So how can this be corrected? Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports Let’s have a look at a few potential trade targets. There has been a lack of hard-hit balls (save from Rowdy Tellez, who has performed admirably), and the backup crew of Owen Miller and Mike Brosseau have struggled to impact games with their right-handed bats against southpaws. In 2021, just a few weeks deeper into the season than we are now, Milwaukee acquired Willy Adames for pitchers JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. Adames instantly kickstarted a sluggish offense. Who could have a similar impact in 2023? J.D. Davis – Third Base, San Francisco Giants Current Contract - $4.21 million, under team control via arbitration in 2024 Davis has come out firing this season, assuaging concerns about his defense and really providing an impact on offense for the Giants. Given Brian Anderson’s streaky form and his viability in right field, and that Luis Urias may be more suited to playing second base, there is a gap for Davis at the hot corner. Davis is currently in the 99th percentile for outs above average, with slick range and hard, accurate throws leading him to five outs above average (OAA), but his biggest importance to the Brewers would lie in the bat, which is profiling incredibly well. He has a: - 92.2 MPH average exit velocity (87th percentile) - 54% Hard-Hit Rate (94th percentile) - .278/.347/.500 slash line The downside is, he hasn’t hit lefties at all so far this season, with just a .414 OPS across 33 plate appearances, although he has a career .771 OPS against them. He is a reverse platoon split guy, but that OPS is far better than the majority of Brewers hitters are currently putting up. He’s hit six home runs so far this season, and is a player who can make a real difference in both aspects of the game. The question is: What would the Giants want in return? A sort of rebuild is going on at the moment, but they have enough pieces that they could contend if they get hot. They may want someone like Adames given that Brandon Crawford is coming to the end of his career–although obviously, they’d have to include much more than Davis in order to entice the Brewers to deal their starting shortstop. C.J. Cron – First Base, Colorado Rockies Current Contract - $7,25 million, free agent after 2023 Cron was an annual scrapheap slugger before arriving in Colorado, but the fit of his power and overall profile with Coors Field convinced the Rockies to make a medium-term commitment to him. A plus defender at first base (with substantially more range than Rowdy Tellez), he hits from the right side, and has a .303 average against lefties so far this season, and a career .818 OPS against them. He had a slow start to the season, but is starting to pick it up, currently sitting at a 100 OPS+. He has a: - 17.6% barrel rate (92nd percentile) - .506 expected slugging (83rd percentile) On the flip side, he is in the 11th percentile for whiff rate, and the 29th percentile for walks and strikeouts, potentially demonstrating a regression toward a skill set like that of 2022’s Brewers offense, although they haven’t shown that same power stroke so far this season. His cost is hard to estimate given that the Rockies aren’t competitive this season, but their front office isn’t known for its proactiveness or its transactionality. Cron is set to be a free agent at season’s end, but the team hasn’t automatically dealt players in similar situations over the last two years. Eduardo Escobar – Third Base, NY Mets Current Contract - $10 million, free agent after 2023 Eduardo Escobar hasn’t had a strong start to the season, but given Brett Baty’s emergence pushing him down the pecking order, the Mets may be willing to offload his salary and trade him. Escobar goes on hot streaks, like the one he managed at the end of last year, and has been regarded as a good defender at third base, something which cannot be said for Mike Brosseau. His expected slugging has never been what it is now, and is likely to rebound around the .400 mark, while he has been hitting the ball hard with more regularity this season–albeit without the results to show for it. He has found his timing much easier against left-handers, to the tune of a .700 OPS thus far, but is never likely to be a difference-maker on offense. Rather, as a backup and as a switch-hitter, Escobar would provide Craig Counsell with value that far surpasses that of Brosseau so far this season. Escobar is unlikely to have cost the Crew four runs Wednesday night, for instance. He has a - Career .741 OPS, with a career .780 OPS against left-handed pitchers - Had an xwOBA over .500 in a hot streak to finish the 2022 season with the Mets over the final two months - Recorded sweet spot launch angles on average last year in every area of the zone as a right-handed hitter (13 degrees to 26 degrees) Escobar isn’t a flashy potential acquisition, but he has a positive clubhouse presence, some fresh energy, and a consistent AB to offer. He also has the potential to carry an offense when he gets hot, as he did for the Mets last season, and would be a versatile, plus defender that doesn’t cost games with routine misplays. His cost is unlikely to be too high, and the Brewers could trade Brosseau and from their AAA reliever depth. Who do you think could make an instant impression on this offense the way that Adames did in 2021? View full article

The highest vote by Sunday will be the winner!

What in the balls

It's sweep city in the central. Cards well on their way to being swept by angels, and the cubs just got walked off to be swept by the nationals

Maybe so, but there's still a sizeable enough number of BBE's and it's not like he wasn't hitting homers two weeks ago. Just something that stands out that he maybe hasn't changed too much just yet

Miley could find this his blowup outing as he's allowed more flyballs than you'd expect so far this season. That being said, Brewers are due to tear someone a new one, and Seabold seems as good a choice as any

Keston Hiura's stats make for interesting reading Average exit velo 86.2mph Whiff Rate 33% (40% in majors last season) Chase rate 20% (was 29% in majors) Hard Hit rate just 30.4% This guy needs more time in AAA

It does beg the question if AA is almost like hitting at major league level of movement, and if Nashville would actually be an easier assignment in that way He could be due an early promotion, and honestly may end up being a DH/1B for the Brewers later this season if he keeps this up. Do we think he could be a good defensive 1B with his range? Assuming his kinda quick given the stolen bases total He has a 0.48 GO/AO ratio, this guy elevates the ball a ton, putting up these numbers with just a .261 BABIP, maybe could do with a slightly more line drive approach but even then, wow! 15.7% Strikeout rate with almost as many stolen bases as strikeouts (14/13)

They've also had just 11 strikeouts across the last two games, I think it's fair to say they've been a little unlucky, though the lack of home runs is slightly hurting them, and some well hit balls finding men. Adames looks ready to burst out of his slump, Tellez is hitting well, and that's a bit of a kick start for Turang. But my god, can someone stop Brosseau at third? I'd rather Turang played there if needs be and DH him, it's criminal what he's doing. With so few starts to have five errors this season

Three inches difference when moving up a level is insane

Beginning to wonder just how good this pitching staff is and how much this sticky ball is helping. It almost makes a mockery of things

Yes brother! Love to hear people beating the bajeezus out of their demons, keep it up!