Jake McKibbin

Last time, we took a look at Corbin Burnes's primary weapons and why he's so effective with them. Now let's look at his secondary offerings. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports The Change-Up A pitch that Corbin Burnes has steadily been using more often year on year, to the point that it’s currently his second most common pitch this season, has taken on a life of its own. As mentioned in part one, he used the change-up only to left-handers in 2022, fading down and away in the zone or sequencing with his cutter to create weak contact and forcing batters to stretch away. The standout for Burnes on this pitch is the speed at which he throws it, last season recording almost average major league movement on the pitch across both planes, but at 90.3mph. His change-up had 26.4 inches of vertical drop and 14.4 inches of horizontal movement and was thrown harder than Wade Miley’s fastball, recording a whiff rate of 46.7%. The pitch had an expected WOBA of just .288 (the MLB average is usually about .320), and this has continued to progress in the current season, with hitters recording just one hit across the 46 pitches he’s thrown so far. He’s historically used it to devastating effect against left-handers and has thrown a couple to right-handers this season; he may plan to use this more often in the coming season. The Slider The slider is a pitch Burnes used to devastating effect against right-handers last season; a slower, more exaggerated movement than his cutter made picking either of these pitches particularly difficult. Like the curveball, Burnes has historically kept this pitch out of the hitting zone at 65-70% for his last two seasons. Yet even when he keeps it in the strike zone, the batting average against this pitch has been incredibly low on a month-to-month basis, only exceeding .200 a handful of months. He primarily used it like his curve to right-handers, as a finishing pitch, getting the hitters to chase down and away, using it 36% of the time when he gets ahead to right-handers, compared to just 12% of the time when the hitter gets ahead. Opponents overall hit .160 on pitches ending in the slider, with a 49.7% whiff rate. As you can see below, one of the best things about his slider is how well he locates it, keeping it down in, or below, the zone almost 75% of the time. He averaged 85% more horizontal break than the average slider, as well as slightly more vertical drop, and likes to use this to his advantage with the cutter, locating the cutter down and away in zone, then using the slider to follow the same path and dart further off the plate. The Sinker Burnes has often looked for another fastball he could use to keep the pressure of his cutter, whether that be the occasional four-seamer, which has gotten hit regularly, or the sinker, which moves the opposite way and was hit slightly less frequently. Ideally, this post by the pitching ninja demonstrates exactly what Burnes was hoping for in his arsenal: However, it was comfortably the most hittable pitch he used last season (albeit his underlying metrics were more sound) to the tune of a battering average of .250 and a slugging percentage of .525. As such, he’s begun using this a lot more sparingly this season. However, when he has, it’s been crushed, in part because he doesn’t generate much movement either vertically or horizontally, comfortably below league average in both categories, as well as struggling a lot more with a location in the middle of the zone and spraying it when trying to encourage a chase. The issue is it had a potentially beneficial effect in emphasizing both his cutter and his slider’s performance, and we’ll see throughout 2023 if these pitches have become less effective. Pitch Usage The Brewers ace had relied heavily on his cutter over the last few years, particularly when behind a hitter, and then used his off-speed stuff under lower leverage counts or to finish off a hitter. It’s interesting to see how methodical he’s been in his approach to this. The mere fact he threw only cutters in 3-0 counts for an entire season shows how much faith he has in that pitch, as well as its prominence in 3-1 and 2-0 counts, but also how often he uses the off-speed variations early in the count with a lot more variety and usage. How the sinker and slider were used only for right-handers speaks to this approach, and it’s worked well for our Cy Young winner. However, he did start to get hit much harder in the three-ball counts than throughout 2021. He does have specific sequences he likes to use, from the back door cutter paired with a fading change-up to left-handed hitters, the cutter/slider combination down and away to right-handers, and the curveball is thrown in against both to have a three-pitch arsenal with which to attack each side of the plate. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is anything that stands out to you? We’ll be back soon for part three, and an analysis of where he took a step back in 2022 and how he can learn going into this season. View full article

Fun fact While Wiemer has accumulated 0.3 fWAR over the short season so far, Jordan Walker with all the hype about his undying brilliance is sitting at -0.3 fWAR Edit: This becomes 0.5 bWAR for Joey and still -0.3 bWAR for poor Walker on baseball reference

Some stats based fun The Clayton Andrews love is interesting, his slider in 12 Batted ball events has an average exit velocity of 46 mph, along with a 50% CSW and every ball hit on the ground Ethan Small's Changeup has a 61.9% CSW rate.. i thought the slider was meant to be his pitch, yowza! That's with 57% of the change-ups being in-zone. He also has the biggest rising action on the sounds, with 19.1 inches less vertical drop than expected, just a shame that almost 65% are out of the zone. Would be interesting if he took the Lauer approach and said "hit this meatball" Bennett Sousa's fastball has a 46.7% CSW rate, but with the caveat of an average exit velocity of 98 mph Lucas Erceg's change-up has as much horizontal movement as Adrian Houser's sinker, as well as having the fastest pitch in Nashville with his 96mph sinker

The cards commentators are awful... Tuned in to a little bit of pirates game yesterday, Matz in a 3-2 count misses several inches off the inside of the plate, and crouches Commentator "everyone thought THAT was a strike, except the guy with the (short pause) little strike zone" Later on Carson struck out looking on a pitch dotted at bottom of the zone , and they call it a "moveable strike zone, that's not a strike".

Early in a new season, it's a good time to dive deep even on players with whom most fans feel familiar. Today, let's discuss the arsenal of Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports In the build-up to his performance against the Diamondbacks, the Milwaukee Brewers released a video talking to both Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, where Woodruff mentioned that after a bad performance, he sees Corbin in his black book analyzing his pitches, and knows something special is coming the next time he gets on the mound. We got that against the exciting, young Diamondbacks, who had just put up 29 runs across their last three games against the LA Dodgers. Burnes held them to just three hits and zero walks across eight innings of work. Later in the season, or with a healthier pitching staff, he likely would have finished the job, potentially with a Maddux. So without further ado, let’s take a look at what makes Burnes potentially the best pitcher in baseball. Pitch Mix Burnes has a five-pitch arsenal: cutter, changeup, sinker, slider, and curveball, having eliminated the four-seamer altogether coming into this season. He has different approaches based on matchups, though, predominantly throwing cutters (41%) and sliders (33%) to right-handed hitters, with lesser use of the change-up and the curveball. Against left-handers, he eliminates the slider altogether and really hones in on the cutter (62%) with the change (23%) and curveball (15%) as his alternate options. He particularly likes working lefties down and in with the cutter, as well as with the back-door cutter curving in late. He has various options at his disposal depending on the hitter, so let’s take a dive into them. The Cutter The first thing that stands out about Burnes’s primary weapon is the velocity at which he throws it, averaging over 95 miles per hour in each of the last two seasons. It's the fastest cutter in baseball from a starting pitcher, by a fairly wide margin. Most of the time, such high velocity results in reduced movement, as the velocity requires more spin and energy to move the ball off its intended course. No such trouble for Burnes, who has slightly above-average vertical movement, and 80 percent better horizontal movement than the rest of the league on his cutter. It’s a pitch he used over 50% of the time in his last two full seasons, and uses it in a variety of ways, challenging hitters with belt-high offerings, curving it in the front door against right-handers, or dipping it down and away off the plate to force hitters to chase. He was, at times, guilty of overusing it last season, given he threw only the cutter in 3-0 and 3-1 counts. On 3-0, batters hit .429/.643 against him, contrasted to a .267/.467 line from 2021. Aside from the strikeout stuff, he also induces a large number of ground balls with this pitch, with an average launch angle of three degrees. In 2021, he had a strikeout rate of 35% with a ground-ball rate of 48%. The cutter, specifically, was seven percentage points better than league average at producing ground balls, surpassing a 50% rate. The Curveball Burnes’ second-most-used pitch in 2021 and 2022 was the curveball, and on the surface, it’s difficult to see why it’s so effective. In 2022, opponents had a batting average against of .127 against that curve, and they slugged just .263. Yet, his expected numbers were even better, with a .118 average and .184 slugging. It has less vertical movement, compared to the average hook, but where it stands out is the horizontal break he gets on the pitch, 32 percent better than league average in 2022. The break is less of a loopy movement, and more of a sharp, late break as it enters the strike zone with slightly above average velocity for a curveball. All in all last season, it was worth a run value of -11. In terms of how he uses it, 65-70 percent of Burnes’s curveballs are out of the zone, predominantly to put hitters away, but he’s rarely truly wild with it, with his heat map showing a lot of pitches just below the strike zone, which must be torturous to hit. As you can see, over the course of 2022, his curveball was predominantly in the lower portion, or below the strike zone, though the occasional hanging curves can bite him, something he’s done a little more often in his first few starts of the year. The pace and snap on the delivery can bail him out of trouble more often than not, and it’s also important to note that last season he shelved the pitch in counts wherein he fell behind. To sum up how dominant this pitch was, it had a strikeout % of 62.5%, and put-away percentage of 41.7%. Those numbers speak for themselves. That’s all for part one, stay tuned for part two in the next day or two! View full article

He has had a lot of infield hits in that too though, we know there's power in there so the main question is if he can translate it over to the majors faster by staying here (he may adjust himself before Taylor returns) or better with time out of the spotlight in the minors. He's playing everyday so that's the main thing

Oops, was thinking a couple days earlier he was chasing a lot, but his whiff rate was 70th percentile. It's in 28th now (shows early season volatility eh?)

I thik it's also fair to say that Wiemer is looking like a hell of a higher floor than we thought, but his contact hasn't been at the level expected (lowest exit velocity in the majors) and likely just needs a little fine tuning before coming back up and putting the adjustments to good use. He's whiffing at a very low rate, so it's just the quality of contact, and potentially identifying pitches (which'll come with time at major league level) So could be a good outcome if that happens, and I'd back him to return before end of season

From about a minute or so in, enjoy the clips of not just current Javy Baez being awful on the bases, but also from the night before #elmago

As a foreigner and the lone baseball fan among my friends, I sometimes find myself attempting to find ways to help them understand why it’s such a majestic sport. I’ve shown them clips of some amazingly athletic plays, but regular game cameras don’t show just how much ground is being covered, how fast the footwork is, or how fast the game is. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports They can appreciate that hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do, yet nothing after this entirely sinks in. Unless you have played the sport, it’s tough to fully grasp how challenging even the most basic throws can be. Given cricket is a much bigger sport in Ireland, and with feats like these catches to compare to (on a heavier smaller ball without gloves), baseball can be seen as inferior in some ways. So why is baseball so beautiful? For me, it comes down to several things. I love the randomness of it, encapsulated by the fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates won their season series against the mighty LA Dodgers 5-1 last season. In so many other sports, from American Football, Rugby, “Real” football, Basketball, and Tennis, a team as comparatively poor as the Pirates would have no chance. Yet, in the fine margins that baseball operates, there are always shocks to be had; any team can truly believe they can win on a given day. It’s one reason why the postseason is so exciting, one clean swing changing a whole game, one pitch that’s an inch off target, one umpire’s decision, one call from the catcher. The difference between barreling a baseball and just missing is so minute that even the home run derby doesn’t feature home runs on every swing. We see position players getting out by throwing absolute trash at the hitters. It doesn’t matter how much you square up a ball if you line it straight to shortstop. Add in the fine margins, often a single camera frame, between being on base and a recorded out, and you see how easily a game can swing. It’s magical and highly frustrating sometimes, so the high emotions of tension-filled games can make you feel alive, living, and dying on every pitch. The Mets game on the 5th of April is a prime example, from going 4-1 up with your ace and Cy Young caliber pitcher on the mound to a couple of innings later finding yourself 6-4 down and potentially game over with the strength of the Mets bullpen… Jesse Winker tied the game after Luke Voit stole a base. It finished with Garrett Mitchell's walk-off home run after attempting to bunt multiple times at the start of the at-bat. In case you need a recap from a Redditor with a fun backing track: What would happen had the Mets allowed the double steal chance to bring Yelich home but got out on Voit at second base? Or had Mitchell got a bunt down, how does the 9th inning look? Would he have even tried to bunt when trailing by a run? We’ll never know, but the game would have had a very different complexion and probably involved David Robertson, too, had the Mets led through the 8th and 9th innings. The complexion of a game changes even on one player reaching base somehow, as the hitters faced by each pitcher change from there on, every at-bat is altered. So many possible outcomes from each pitch, and I find that incredibly exciting. I also love the numbers and analytics, seeing through the surface level and assessing if, at any point, a player could break out, do any pinch hitters shine against the areas this pitcher favors, working out the value a player brings to a club, why is a pitcher struggling. I find all this interesting for each new game; your past performances don’t matter; it’s how likely you are to positively impact the game at that moment. No one cares that Corbin Burnes has had a couple of poor outings because we know he’s more likely to give us a good start next time than Eric Lauer. I’ve always been a maths nerd, and the fact that almost every decision in a game is a probability-related one, such as if Mike Brosseau pinch hits and fields third base, is he that much better against left-handed pitchers to compensate for his weaker defense at the hot corner? I love the way the sound of a ball hitting the barrel of the bat makes you sit on the edge of your seat, the smack of a ball hitting the glove at first base or the catcher’s mitt, the face mashing slides and desperation in the outfield to make a catch, the millimeters defining whether a player has reached base safely or is out. I love how the whole complexion of a game changes even on one player reaching base somehow, as the hitters each pitcher faces change from there on; every at-bat is altered. So many possible outcomes from each pitch, and I find that incredibly exciting. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? What do you find is the most majestic thing about baseball? How would you show it off to your friends if they’ve never seen or played a game before? View full article

A makeable play by Tovar on Walker's liner, and McMahon's error let the Cards in, they were a little lucky but rallied well. Could kickstart their season, as another loss would've been fairly denting to the clubhouse morale

The speed of his hands in recieving those pitches is crazy! Through the minors his slash line looked a little like it does now, he pounds the ball but a little often into the ground. Either that or his recieving worried them, Murphy provides a lot more security Ruiz has been meh so far, batting 9th with a couple of nice plays in CF but I'm fairly convinced the A's would've been better just taking Contreras. Glad we've got him

Do you think EBJ's performances this season could have a big impact on the situation with Adames contract? Or other 2B more likely to have this impact?

The difference in hard hit rate Vs barrel rate is likely due to the launch angle The strikeouts and walks are fascinating and hopefully we'll see more, there the stuff to miss bats here for sure and I don't expect them to be lower than average by end of season

With the Brewers going well over the first ten days, why don’t we look at where they’re surpassing pre-season expectations and giving us hope that this early-season momentum isn’t just a flash in the pan? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Willy Adames Strikeout to Walk Ratio So far this season, in 33 plate appearances, Adames has registered a 13.2% walk rate to a 21% strikeout rate. He’s historically been around a 25% strikeout rate in his career with the Milwaukee Brewers, but his walk rate has been an element of concern amongst the Brewers fans. With a .391 BABIP, his batting average will likely come down, but if he can maintain a double-digit walk rate, as he has in multiple prior seasons, the Brewers will be all the better for it. He’s also maintained previous seasons' trends of hitting considerably better with men on base and better again when they’re in scoring position. Christian Yelich’s Nine-Game On-Base Streak Yelich’s first nine games have seen him get on base at least once per game, a feat he last produced in the 2019 season. He’s reaching base at a .381 clip, outstanding from a leadoff hitter, and has been much more proficient at laying off pitches down and out of the zone his last few games, something he struggled mightily with last season. He has also shown more regular hard-hit contact, hitting four seamers hard with a 71.4% hard-hit rate. He has a high expected batting average against the four-seamer and cutter and an xBA of .463 against the curveball, something he hasn’t hit well since 2019. Overall he currently has an xBA of .290 and xSLG of .489. If he can time his swing on the change-up, the National League should watch out. Joey Wiemer’s Defense Our new right fielder does look a little funky at the plate, and his batting line is bolstered by a lot of infield hits in his early career. However, his biggest value so far this season is his defense; he’s the league leader in outs above average, as well as being in the 96th percentile for outfield jump and 93rd percentile for sprint speed. His success rate of 100% vastly surpasses his estimated catch percentage of 87%. He’s made every remotely possible catch so far this season. The Cardinals on Sunday had some very makeable plays in the outfield that turned into big runs for Milwaukee, and I can’t see that happening anywhere near as much with this rangy outfield crew. Brice Turang’s Plate Discipline Often when players hit the big leagues, they take a period to adapt to the higher quality of pitching. Not so Brice Turang, who has come in and shown remarkable discipline at the plate with solid bat-to-ball skills. He’s struck out just 13% of his plate appearances and walked in a vast 17.4%. If he can maintain the strikeout rate around this level, the Brewers will have a solid bottom-of-the-line-up, something they’ve missed in previous seasons, and allow pitchers to settle into their groove. Turang is also 95th percentile sprint speed, and his 86th percentile OAA contributed to one of the best middle infields in baseball, a marked improvement again on last season. Rowdy Tellez Underlying Stats Tellez is the one Brewer who hasn’t caught fire, but his underlying stats of a 52.6% hard-hit rate, 91.2mph average exit velocity, and 15.8% barrel rate suggest an outburst is on its way. He’s squaring up four-seamers and sliders in particular, and it won’t be long until he becomes the dominant middle-of-the-line-up hitter we know he can be. Tellez got off to a scorching start last season, but he had a poor BABIP throughout the year, almost .070 points below his usual marks, and the Brewers will think if he can get a bit of luck, the line-up will take on a whole new, fearsome visage. Freddy Peralta’s Dominance Fastball Freddy has conceded just one run across 12 innings of work this season. He’s been in the top 10% of expected batting average in four of his five seasons, a trend that’s continued with an xBA of .191 and an xSLG of .330 in his first two starts. He locates around the edges of the zone a lot with his fastball and has kept the slider just off the outside edge to right-handed hitters across both starts, though there is a cause for concern with his 43.3% in-zone percentage. He’s been getting ahead off the first pitch (60% first-pitch strikes) and then trying to induce chases, but he does need to be a little more trusting in his stuff to pitch deeper into the game. Against the Cardinals, he had more 95 mph+ pitches than any other outing in his career (32), maxing out at 97.8mph, the hardest of his career as a starter. More importantly, health-wise, his last five pitches were all 95 mph and above. Bullpen Proficiency Aided by a somewhat unsustainable 82% left-on-base percentage to start the season, the bullpen leads the majors in ERA. Peter Strzelecki, Hoby Milner, Devin Williams, and Gus Varland have been lights out in high-leverage situations with some nasty pitches. Strzelecki’s slider to strike out Arenado on Sunday was a thing of beauty, and it won’t be long before the strikeout numbers escalate for this relief corps. Gus Varland has an xSlg of just .368, Peter Strzelecki has an XBA of .217, and Hoby Milner has a 70% ground ball rate this season. Some optimism there, Brewer Fanatics; what do you guys think? Does anything surprise you? View full article

I think the Catcher was giving Cruz some verbal... compliments, and Santana took issue with it? But yeah it seemed a poor slide, and much better diving head first on the outside to slip a hand in as you go past

FTFY

One fun fact is yelich's percentage of sweet spot contact was 66.7% going into this series. He's not as far off as you'd think, had a poor start in two games but still a big player

He was a little fortunate with 7 walks issues, the Blue Jays had a bit of an off day other than that, but certainly the best results so far from him. I think the first game tonight is huge, set the tone, and up the ante some I agree, I don't think he was slow, and totally understandable pace given his injury record and early in season. Never should've been sent

Just went to double check, and technically we're both correct here... it was the labrum in his hips that ended him! Impressive memory, thanks for the heads up!