Jake McKibbin
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Everything posted by Jake McKibbin
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So do you think he's worth more than Swanson? I'd certainly say slightly below Swanson is comparable
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There was a rumour from "the guy" of info for inside the red sox (think there's another post) that apparently before Mariners trade, Mark Attanasio stepped in and pulled the plug ona potential deal with the red sox for prospects Should've been more specific!
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Could part of this also be a leverage in that the Red Sox fans will bay for blood if Bogaerts, Devers & Betts all left? Surely they need at least one marquee player? I think for Adames a better comp is the swanson deal, and probably can pay slightly less than this given Swansons performed slightly ahead of Adames last few years, plus 2 Arby years, may be able to get something in the way of 7/8 for 20 per year AAV He's projected to get $9.2m in 23 and $14m in 24, and could maybe do something like 6 years at 23-25 Millions for following years, so a gross contract of 9 + 14 + (24*6) could be a contact of around 8 years $167 Million? I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate
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Could part of this also be a leverage in that the Red Sox fans will bay for blood if Bogaerts, Devers & Betts all left? Surely they need at least one marquee player? I think for Adames a better comp is the swanson deal, and probably can pay slightly less than this given Swansons performed slightly ahead of Adames last few years, plus 2 Arby years, may be able to get something in the way of 7/8 for 20 per year AAV He's projected to get $9.2m in 23 and $14m in 24, and could maybe do something like 6 years at 23-25 Millions for following years, so a gross contract of 9 + 14 + (24*6) could be a contact of around 8 years $167 Million? I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate
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One thing I'd say is the brewers, per Forbes, Made 29 million dollars last year, a net profit of 10.8%. Which is totally acceptable as an owner, and doesnt include drawings from the owner I dont think that means he's an absolute cheapskate, and maybe keeping money if there's no point spending it for a very slight difference (ie for 0.2 WAR you wouldnt spend 10 Million) then maybe it is the better policy and use it for spending by the trade deadline as issues arise The brewers have s trog-ish upper level of the farm system and have always been adept at developing relief pitchers If a trade makes sense, or a player, he'll spend, if not, well why would you? IDK I think the guy, especially if the Wong to red Sox rumour is accurate, wants to focus on now and is geared towards the team winning but there are constraints, and the Arby increases will make a sizeable difference It's maybe too early to judge but certainly wouldnt throw this all on Free Agent spend
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Is Urias not already a cheap 3B/SS, with a 110 ish OPS+? Surely, although prospects are great and cheap, but I cant see a team hoping to roll the dice in the playoffs even considering this. In fact with Miller, Toro, Urias, Turang fighting over 2 positions, he may be surplus to requirements and on the trade block himself. The only other player I can se joining that mix is an experienced head, someone to add some clubhouse stature
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Tellez in particular is very interesting He had a BABIP of 215 last year, and I remember in June time he had an expected slugging at the same level as Aaron Judge He hit a number of absolute missiles last year either to right field or right through the centre that were outs, I think if he gets anyway normal BABIP this year (streamer projecting a 258 which translates to an expected 810 OPS, and is hardly unreasonable) then hopefully we see more from him and the perception of him. His range might not be huge, but he has a very safe glove at 1B and I'm happy enough for him to man that most of the year Taylor is an interesting one, when you look at his spray chart, and the example shown is probably the biggest gap that will be open, just the pull side of 2B, but didnt realise he was this lop-sided Toro, I guess we'll see but Tellez absed on an increased BABIP and eliminating the shift (especially the short RF position) has me a little excited. Plus the dude is clutch
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Jake McKibbin replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I just posted about an article I saw the other day relating to the Brewers updating the FB velo in their bullpen. I think they'd be mildly content with their bullpen at the moment, particularly if Abner Uribe can stay healthy, but I'd imagine if they can an Alex Reyes style player could be exactly what they'd go in on, depending on the price -
I think with Escobar, given no player here will play 162 games its important to think of the rotation of 2B, 3B and SS fielders So whats a better fit Turang, Adames, Urias & Miller/Toro or Turang, Adames, Urias and Escobar? I think as well given there will be times Toro and Miller would be needed, as there will be injuires etc, but Escobar also being an above average 1B fielder with a strength vs Lefties could be a really smart fit, and regardless what Lineup CC puts out, i think there's much more strength there I wouldnt want to be particularly reliant on Miller or Toro if an injury happened to Turang, Urias or Adames, so yeah a lot more stability there, I'd offer a 25-30 prospect at Double A for him probably
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I think there's an underestimation of what Winker doing well looks like, as potentially the best hitter the Brewers have, not saying he will but he has the ceiling of a 900 OPS guy if he stays healthy That guy doesnt get traded if you're in contention, so a lot of factors may come into this, but i think its also likely that Mitchell isnt going to be a high 700 OPS, his SO rate is very high and hits a lot more IF ground balls than Frelick has, though with better defense and speed. We'll see how it pans out but it is fairly common for hitters to go down for a while to keep getting AB's and adjust to a few things for their return to Major league level
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Potentially if Winker is struggling (he may not make opening day yet actually) but He's such an offensive upgrade if he's hitting even vaguely like his career numbers that its probably more likely that Mitchell or Frelick, if under performing or have some work ons, drop down to AAA
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Jake McKibbin replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Another strong one is what would it cost for 2 Years of Scott Barlow in a trade from Kansas City? -
Given his figures over 2021 & 2022, I'd maybe be willing to go 2/16 for Chafin, the others not so much That or could be tempted for a 3/40-45 (Maybe this is another underestimate) for Eovaldi maybe? and Move Houser to the Pen?
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Abdrew Chafin looks excatly what the club needs, solid, dependable reliever with low 3's ERA over his career, issue with injuries last year but maybe a good person for a 5/6m deal
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I think he meant ISO, though again if someone is that fast ISO is less relevant, just get him on base somehow. His starting position can be slightly further from 1st base, and with PO rules, he could be a very good pickup. You wonder if infields in will help detract from his value at all, and ofc SS arms will be much better but you can see upside Apparently Baseball prospectus did an article (I cant access it) that by mid June, he had attempted 31 bunts. Thats a lot, though would lal these be included as batted balls (does attempted bunts include ones that go foul?) If so, then his HH rate jumps by 50%, again a question of can he make contact at MLB level, and obviously as a CF he may be above average defensively and offensively. Good points, I think I've undervalued him, though as you said, its a good trade for the Brewers regardless
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I mean, even if he bunts 10% of the time, that'll be an incredibly low hard hit rate for Triple A, never mind the Majors Though Fangraphs has his projected ISO at .146 which isnt too bad... He's quick enough that a 700 OPS is probably an effective 780 or so with his base stealing, though again you'll find stronger arms at MLB level than in the minors, and I think he got caught a few times in AFL too (he had a really poor campaign there) In 2022 in his limited time in the majors - Average EV was 73 mph, Max EV was 100.2. 3.6% Barrel rate, 10.7% Hard hit rate, and heavy pull hitter (makes sense if trying to beat out the SS/3B throw) - He was goot at making contact with pitches outside the zone (70+%) but still swung at 43% of those outside I think I could see how if he had a stronger bat tool or developed he could be a fun player, but he's definitely risky, and tbh i think if the A's had contreras DHing and traded him next year or at the deadline for someone needing a bat, they'd have a lot more. But time tells doesnt it
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I have to disagree with the last bit I think to demonstrate the Brewers as a force, they'll need Winker to be really performing at a very high level again, and to Keep Taylor but move on Winker would seem very strange. Also seems very optimistic to suggest that Taylor/Weimer outperform Winker to that extent, Yelich finds a way to get a little further out in front of him to utilise his exit velos, and two ROY candidates all together, just a lot of things needing to go right there to trade a DH with a potential to hit at 850-950 OPS I actually think Mitchell may struggle due to the "LA" swing which rarely reaches and performs well at the majors, and Weimer possibly has the highest ceiling (Bar Chourio) Just cant see it, though even having contreras DH for LH starters and Winker for RH starters is such an asset
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Hey guys (big crew fan here from Ireland!) Know my knowledge is a little more limited given I've never played the sport, but can get by fairly well via stats and understanding mechanics when spoken about Found it very interesting that they wanted Ruiz, remember the trade with the twins where the A's targeted Pache, as a speedy defensive specialist who gets on base and uses his speed effectively. Didnt work with Pache but its clear to se what specifically they're looking for from that position Be interesting to see how he goes, Speed kills but given the lack of power he would certainly have been my 4th favourite of the brewers outfielders, and would question, despite the Triple A stats, if he can get OB enough in the major to abuse this power As for the return, I'm fairly sure a lot of us didnt expect we'd be able to get any catcher with this sort of offensive capability. Given the crews history with developing catchers on defense, and this guys attitude and drive, Im really shocked at the price we got him for. I think both teams enquired about Murphy, but It sounds like the A's strong armed the Braves into acquiring Ruiz for the trade, and the brewers have absolutely leveraged that to the full. I'm curious why the Braves were so desperate for Murphy, I wonder did they see an issue with Contreras, or more due to D'Arnaud's injury history and Pinas LT injury last year?
