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Terry

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Everything posted by Terry

  1. Terry
    1. EMJ continues to mash the ball and maintain excellent plate discipline in the meantime, but that swing length still kind of scares me. (From what's recorded in ST, his 8.6ft. swing length would basically be the longest in MLB) 2. Durbin's avg EV from last year was 83.8mph, up until yesterday it was 89.5mph (Granted it was 33 BIPs, only halfway through stabilization point, but this is noteworthy) (There may be some sneaky power in there if he's able to maintain that EV) 3. Misiorowski threw more changeups in this outing and the shape came out better than last time, also his 68.6 strike% today is second best in his career so far for any outings that exceeds 50 pitches(Highest: 2024/6/19, 69.2%). Even though he still threw 3 BBs, in the long run this is heading toward right direction.
  2. Terry
    From FanGraphs, he specifically made that a goal and added 10 pounds compared to last year, so hopefully yes.
  3. Terry
    His increased bat speed is mostly because of the increased swing length. (There's another stat called swing acceleration, and his remain roughly the same compared to last year. PS. His bat speed and swing length both ranked around 1st percentile while swing acceleration ranked around league average last year.) I originally thought that he pulled the ball more, so as to optimize his bat speed. But he actually has lowest pull% so far in his career. My theory is that his setup is less crouched to the plate this year, which in turns create a longer swing path. Voilà, sacrificing some contact for better bat speed. Last year: This year: Like you said he did repeatedly say he didn't do anything differently, perhaps just not intentional? Cause the results so far is hell lot of different.
  4. Terry
    That's my thought as to why they kill the curveball drop as well. From LHB standpoint, curveball didn't blend all that well to rest of the arsenals compared to RHB. It seems like the new version will be much more similar to that of slider. But sample size is too small for now for the plot to be actually meaningful.
  5. Terry
    From FanGraphs: Rodriguez is a fine lower-level outfield prospect. He isn’t super toolsy or projectable even though he’s very young, but he has advanced feel for the strike zone and good (if awkward looking) plate coverage. He can spray pitches from foul line to foul line with his punchy all-fields swing, and he projects as a complementary corner outfielder (he’s fast but isn’t a skilled center field defender) with roughly 45-grade contact and power. The main return in this trade is absolutely the draft pick. BA also ranked him as 14 in our system before the trade. Also, There are somewhat disparate opinions about the upcoming draft class. I think it’s slightly better than average in the 50-75 range; the tier of player you’d find in a typical second round extends into the third. That sort of depth doesn’t really have an impact on pick 33, but the Brewers’ draft picks are valuable to them because they’re in a smaller market and need to grow their own talent, and their dev group is good at doing exactly that.
  6. Terry
    Are you trying to compare Yophery Rodriguez to Joey Ortiz And DL hall, whom were both top 100 guy? I mean I love Yophery, but that is nuts.
  7. Terry
    Haven't it cross your mind that maybe trading for an established starting pitcher will take a much heavier toll?
  8. Terry
    I don't think his control is as bad as Zone% suggests, as you can see number would be higher with major league strike zone. Interestingly, he was able to throw more strikes with slider than 4-Seam for second game in a row. (Last year in AAA it was 43.2%. Sample size's still small I know) It's been a long time since Misiorowski last throw his changeup. 9.6iVB, 17.3HB, it's a firm one without much drop and BA gave it a 40.
  9. Terry
    Only up until recently that I figure out how to scrape college data, here's some summary card on games with statcast. I'll see if can dig up some data post draft as well. Chandler Welch There may not be much physical projection left, but I love the arsenal. Sam Garcia That's some crazy vert on 4-Seam. Also some sinkers were mislabeled as changeups. Tate Kuehner
  10. Terry
    Strike zone is also smaller in Triple A if you look at called strikes distribution for these two levels. Especially unfriendly for those who pound fastballs at upper third of the zone.
  11. Terry
    Also, I'll add that this is the third highest strike% he's ever had for any outing that exceeds 50 pitches since he entered the system, like I said hopefully it sticks.
  12. Terry
    Last year, there was inconsistent miss on his sliders It looks like he killed some vertical drop on it this year and was able to pound the zone with it yesterday. I would bet it was a downgrade from last year's version on Stuff model. But due to his premium velocity, it was an acceptable tradeoff if he has more control on it. 3 BBs seemed bad, but 65.8 Strike% is an above average number from a starter, which is nice to see and hopefully it sticks.
  13. Terry
    Some summary for Carlos Rodriguez for anyone who's interested, nothing major is changed though.
  14. Terry
    Oh for sure, I think the concept is to strip away the location factor so that if you have above average numbers, you will have more room for error even if you don't locate it well. I believe facility like Tread Athletics or Driveline use a much more simple version like In-zone top-third VAA though, which is a nice alternative.
  15. Terry
    Yeah I'm wondering how they define "average", as in VAA for similar pitch height and vertical release point? Still trying to recreate my version of it.
  16. Terry
    Here's some summary card for Freddy, certainly some interesting change from today's start, also I'm curious if there's any accessible"VAA Above Average" leaderboard out there?
  17. Terry
    A couple charts I made. From today Last season It seems like there's some cut action to his fastball, not sure if it's intentional or simply because of release angle change. Really like his changeup, less velo differential with more movement separation. Also has a revamped curveball as well.
  18. Terry
    In this article With His Glove-Side Pitches Fine-Tuned, Connor Thomas Makes His Pitch for Brewers' Opening Day Roster written by Jack Stern, Thomas mentioned that Below is the Spin-Based/Observed Movement plot that I generate mimicking baseball savant's style. You can think of Spin-Based spin axis as the moment capture by Hawk-eye when releasing the ball. As you can see, all of his pitches come from extremely similar spin axis, based on the spin-mirroring and non-Magnus effect concept, hitters had a hard time differentiating these pitches out of hand. Here's another example that might help you furthur undertand this concept. Although here's the part I haven't figured out how to explain yet, Aside from the similar characteristic like his other arsenal out of hand, Thomas' cutter seemed to have more expected movement than average cutter from his arm slot. Let me know if you have an idea on how to approach this!
  19. Terry
    Fastball command was a bit off in this start. Cutter, Sliders' command still need some work as well and I think it would be best for him to start the season in AAA, but compared to last year I'm much more confident that he can at least stick as a back end starter. Below is the previous two starts.
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  20. Terry
    Some chart that I've been working on. It's obviously nice to see the usage of cutter and slider were up, and judging by shape, speed, spin rate it could be an average pitch. But from Zone% we can tell that control of those two pitches probably lags behind a bit.
  21. Terry
    Recommend reading these that I accidentally came across today(especially the first piece): Jose Quintana’s Unlikely Roll Continues Jose Quintana Buoys Beleaguered Brewers Rotation
  22. Terry
    One thing I found is that he kept lowering his arm angle in season. No idea as to why it worked, but batted ball data did improve massively. 1st half: 0.354xwoba / 0.397xwobacon 2nd half: 0.286xwoba / 0.302xwobacon
  23. Terry
    Oops, both of them could be just wild overthrown pitches tho, not necessarily a cutter.
  24. Terry
    I got a few observations. 1. Ashby had a new cutter and his sinkers have more drop. 2. Wolfram has more rise on his 4-seam and more horizontal movement on his 2-seam. (More separations between both pitches.)
  25. Terry
    I felt like every time I saw Contreras pat on dirt behind the plate it was always a fastball. Does this move actually confuse hitters haha?
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